Pool C -- 2015

[emma17]

The Linfield under St Thomas ranking bothers me. It shows that groups of people can all look at the same data and criteria and come up with different answers. There is obviously some unwritten subjectivity going on there. Linfield has a stronger SOS and if you come to the conclusion they are equal on the criteria, they win with last years playoff performance as a tie breaker. Makes no sense to me.

Must be that behind the back extra point pass from last week! Linfield has nothing on film that like that 

+k.  Very funny.
I'm confused why some disagree with St. Thomas being ahead of Linfield.  When you actually look at the schedule played by both, who do you think had the tougher road to undefeated?
Linfield:
  /12 vs. Chapman •  W, 52-14  BX RC P P 
9/19 vs. Redlands •  W, 44-7  BX RC RC P P P 
10/3 at Lewis and Clark * •  W, 73-0  BX RC RC 
10/10 vs. Pacific * •  W, 77-10  BX RC 
10/17 at Willamette * •  W, 49-7  BX RC P 
10/24 vs. Whitworth * •  W, 52-10  BX RC P 
10/31 at George Fox * •  W, 24-0  BX RC P 
11/7 vs. Puget Sound * •  W, 72-3  BX RC 

or
St. Thomas:
9/5 at UW-Eau Claire •  W, 62-7  BX RC P P P 
9/12 vs. UW-La Crosse •  W, 51-7  BX RC P P 
9/26 at St. John's * •  W, 35-14  BX RC P 
10/3 vs. St. Olaf * •  W, 54-0  BX RC P 
10/10 at Augsburg * •  W, 55-6  BX RC 
10/17 vs. Hamline * •  W, 78-7  BX RC P 
10/24 vs. Bethel * •  W, 45-14  BX RC P P 
10/31 at Concordia-Moorhead * •  W, 38-14  BX RC P 
11/7 vs. Carleton * •  W, 80-3  BX RC P 

The St. John's game alone makes St. Thomas's undefeated record more impressive than Linfield's.

[wally_wabash]

I tend to agree with emma on this one.  It's not Linfield's fault that PLU and Willamette have had bad years, but that's kind of how this goes. 

I do think there's a chance that Linfield can wind up #1 overall in the west rankings (we'll only really know if we know that Linfield hosts St. Thomas in a semifinal game...or if Rossi can coax that answer out of the chairman), but if they settled on St. Thomas as a clear #1 without the need to invoke last year's tournament results, I don't think it would be too crazy. 

[MonroviaCat]

I tend to agree with emma on this one.  It's not Linfield's fault that PLU and Willamette have had bad years, but that's kind of how this goes. 

I do think there's a chance that Linfield can wind up #1 overall in the west rankings (we'll only really know if we know that Linfield hosts St. Thomas in a semifinal game...or if Rossi can coax that answer out of the chairman), but if they settled on St. Thomas as a clear #1 without the need to invoke last year's tournament results, I don't think it would be too crazy.

and Chapman and Redlands going from the 1&2 to the mediocre in the SCIAC.....  I get the point being made--and I agree with it to some extent but isn't this a prime case of why we have the SOS criteria (to help distinguish between two teams with no head to head or common opponents)?  They are both undefeated and 1-0 over an RRO.  The SOS are really quite close but there is that tie breaker that seems like it should come into play but didn't....

and playing devil's advocate:  Why is St. Thomas's victory over St. John's necessarily evidence of a more impressive undefeated schedule?  Linfield beat (and I mean beat) Whitworth who has no other losses, is regionally ranked (was tied with St. John's last week in the RRs), etc....

[USee]

My sniff test tells me that St John's is better than Whitworth but last I checked that's not the system the RAC is using.  According to the criteria, unless I am missing something, Linfield is as strong or stronger than St Thomas and wins on prior year performance.  So we can all agree on St Thomas But the committees are inconsistent at best in their application of the criteria.

[wally_wabash]

Pat has projected on the site and gone a step further than I will here by projecting future results.  He's also got a sweet bracket up so definitely read that. 
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...
...

Great, now that we've read the official projection, we know the drill so I'll dive right in here.   

Pool A (25 bids):

League	Team
CC	Johns Hopkins
CCIW	Wheaton
ECFC	Norwich
Empire 8	Cortland State
HCAC	Franklin
IIAC	Dubuque
LL	St. Lawrence
MAC	Albright
MASCAC	Framingham State
MIAA	Albion
MIAC	St. Thomas
MWC	St. Norbert
NACC	Lakeland
NCAC	Wabash
NEFC	Western NE
NJAC	Salisbury
NWC	Linfield
OAC	Mount Union
ODAC	Washington & Lee
PAC	Thomas More
SAA	Berry
SCIAC	La Verne
UMAC	St. Scholastica
USAC	Huntingdon
WIAC	UW-Oshkosh

Teams in bold have clinched.  A couple of changes in here this week, but the big one is obviously Wesley's losing control of the NJAC (but not the East region's rankings).  That'll come into play here in a bit.   If you're looking here at unresolved AQs that could domino into the at-large pool, you're looking at the OAC, the NCAC, the NJAC, and the MIAA. 

Pool B (1 bid):

The South region committee does the work for us here and they're hanging onto Hardin-Simmons (6-1 D3 record, 0.574 SOS, 2-1 vs. RROs) as their top at-large candidate. 

And with that taken care of, here's what's left, in order, from the regional rankings:
North: John Carroll, Ohio Northern, DePauw, Olivet
South: Mary Hardin-Baylor, Guilford, Moravian, Texas Lutheran, East Texas Baptist
East: Wesley, Alfred, RPI, Delaware Valley
West: UW-Whitewater, St. John's, Whitworth, UW-Platteville, Wartburg

Let's find our final six.

Pool C (6 bids):
Round 1:

North 6: John Carroll (8-1 D3 record, 0.450 SOS, 0-1 vs. RROs)
South 3: Mary Hardin-Baylor (7-1, 0.470, 1-1)
East 1: Wesley (8-1, 0.548, 1-1)
West 4: UW-Whitewater (6-1, 0.526, 1-1)

Almost looks like a semifinal quartet.  Yikes.  Wesley holds advantages here with win percentage and SOS.  RRO results are a wash on the surface, but there can be some debate here if a 1-point win over North 10 (which included 49 points allowed) is as nice as wins against West 7 or South 9.  You can also debate the relative mertis of losses against East 6, West 3, or South 2.  Ultimately, I think Wesley is the choice here. 

Round 2:
North 6: John Carroll (8-1 D3 record, 0.450 SOS, 0-1 vs. RROs)
South 3: Mary Hardin-Baylor (7-1, 0.470, 1-1)
East 5: Alfred (7-2, 0.602, 1-1)
West 4: UW-Whitewater (6-1, 0.526, 1-1)

Happy day for Alfred.  They've got 5 rounds to stare down the committee with that massive SOS and dare them to say no.  We'll keep this in mind as we go: Alfred's RRO win is vs. East 9 and their loss is to East 3.  Win percentage is an issue for the Saxons (for now).  UW-Whitewater is going to be my selection here based on SOS and win percentage and I prefer their RRO results to UMHB's and Alfred's.  It's a close choice here- secondary criteria also favor UW-W (2-0 in non-division results). 

Round 3:
North 6: John Carroll (8-1 D3 record, 0.450 SOS, 0-1 vs. RROs)
South 3: Mary Hardin-Baylor (7-1, 0.470, 1-1)
East 5: Alfred (7-2, 0.602, 1-1)
West 5: St. John's (8-1, 0.567, 1-1)

St. John's is new and they boast a big SOS, max win percentage, and they have a loss to West 1 and a win against West 8 on their profile.  To me this round comes down to St. John's and UMHB.  My lean is toward St. John's, but I also know UMHB has had a three round head start here.  I'm not sure the order here matters because these look like the next two teams in from what I can tell.  I'll go with St. John's in this round. 

Round 4:
North 6: John Carroll (8-1 D3 record, 0.450 SOS, 0-1 vs. RROs)
South 3: Mary Hardin-Baylor (7-1, 0.470, 1-1)
East 5: Alfred (7-2, 0.602, 1-1)
West 6: Whitworth (8-1, 0.529, 0-1)

For me Whitworth is a bit of a non-starter in this round because they lack a quality win and their RRO loss was very unimpressive vs. West 2.  West 2 is very good, but that's a bad result.  I'm waffling here between UMHB and Alfred.  I think UMHB's time at the table wins out here and despite the SOS, it's their time.  The Cru go in. 

Round 5:
North 6: John Carroll (8-1 D3 record, 0.450 SOS, 0-1 vs. RROs)
South 6: Guilford (8-1, 0.482, 0-1)
East 5: Alfred (7-2, 0.602, 1-1)
West 6: Whitworth (8-1, 0.529, 0-1)

Guilford is getting two cracks here.  Zero quality wins, one loss (with their star QB out for most of the game) vs. South 5.  Now I'm looking at Alfred in a serious way.  Heavy, heavy SOS advantage, they are the only team here with a win against an RRO...this is not criteria but they are the highest ranked team on the table.  JCU has been around from the beginning, but I don't see the Streaks as electable with that SOS, a non-Mount Union loss and zero quality wins.  Alfred is my choice. 

Round 6:
North 6: John Carroll (8-1 D3 record, 0.450 SOS, 0-1 vs. RROs)
South 6: Guilford (8-1, 0.482, 0-1)
East 9: RPI (7-2, 0.594, 0-2)
West 6: Whitworth (8-1, 0.529, 0-1)

Didn't expect to be seeing RPI here, but there we are.  RPI has multiple losses, both to ranked opponents, but no wins vs. RROs.  I don't think this year we can do a two-loss team with no quality wins.  So- Guilford or Whitworth?  This is where Guilford's non-league schedule bites them.  I'm taking Whitworth here at this moment but...more discussion on this below. 

While I've taken Whitworth here, the Pirates close the season with winless Lewis & Clark while Guilford will close with 6-3 E&H and that SOS advantage the Pirates enjoy is about to disappear.  If everybody who is supposed to win on Saturday wins (like that ever happens), it's not hard to see Guilford having a better profile.  Of course, that Lewis & Clark effect may also knock Whitworth below UW-Platteville (7-2, 0.544, 2-2) in the rankings and if that happens Platteville should go in.  As the only team in Pool C with multiple RRO wins, the Pioneers should be a slam dunk against a board that looks like the one I had here in Round 6. 

[Pat Coleman]

I definitely think Alfred has a very good chance. I just can't get past the Ithaca loss -- it's a loss worse than anyone else has on the board at that point.

I didn't see anyone mention the reason I think Linfield moved in: Their SOS moved above .500.

About Whitworth -- their SOS is about to dive to about .489. They're in deep doo-doo. They'll be a blocker if they are left too high in the West.

[wally_wabash]

The game definitely changes here if the west rankings move Whitworth below Platteville. If that happens I think UWP would go in round 5 and then you'd have your pick of Alfred or Guilford. Obviously I went with Alfred, but Guilford (or Moravian if they switch again Saturday) definitely wouldn't be wrong. It's not terribly dissimilar to the Wabash/SJF choice in 2013.

[Ralph Turner]

What a bracket!

Linfield vs Whitworth
UMHB vs HSU

For me that is #1 versus a very strong #6 and maybe #5
And, #3 versus #4.

On the other side of the upper right bracket, i have a #2 Wesley vs #8 Norwich.
For me, it is #5 or #6 W&L versus #7Albright.

[MonroviaCat]

I definitely think Alfred has a very good chance. I just can't get past the Ithaca loss -- it's a loss worse than anyone else has on the board at that point.

I didn't see anyone mention the reason I think Linfield moved in: Their SOS moved above .500.

About Whitworth -- their SOS is about to dive to about .489. They're in deep doo-doo. They'll be a blocker if they are left too high in the West.

That was what I found "interesting"--yes the CATS SOS moved above .500 but it did not surpass Oshkosh's while it did surpass St. Thomas' (which is now below .500).  If that is the only thing that really changed--it would seem to make sense for Oshkosh and Linfield to jump over St. Thomas....

[MonroviaCat]

What a bracket!

Linfield vs Whitworth
UMHB vs HSU

For me that is #1 versus a very strong #6 and maybe #5
And, #3 versus #4.

On the other side of the upper right bracket, i have a #2 Wesley vs #8 Norwich.
For me, it is #5 or #6 W&L versus #7Albright.

It's rough on the Islands!

[wally_wabash]

One thing that I found interesting and important is that Mount Union and Whitewater wound up on opposite sides because that's just how it happened.  If they wind up on the same side or even in the same region, fine.  If not, also fine.  But it would be bad for the process here if the committee intentionally put them together. 

[USee]

One thing that I found interesting and important is that Mount Union and Whitewater wound up on opposite sides because that's just how it happened.  If they wind up on the same side or even in the same region, fine.  If not, also fine.  But it would be bad for the process here if the committee intentionally put them together.

True but I have a skeptical eye about intentionality.  You could take Pat's bracket and literally swap Wheaton w UWW with zero impact except pitting the purples in the semis.  Those schools are 90 miles apart.

[DFWCrufan]

So as I see the preliminary Brackets, possibly UMHB/HSU..another go round and again in Abelene...(sigh) but if the Cru do win out and Linfield does it then it's  Linfield and UMHB at the catdome...And next year when Linfield and UMHB meet in the season, Linfield will be coming out our ears. And to quote Coach Fred..Linfield, we always lose to Linfield...Brutal post season

[wally_wabash]

One thing that I found interesting and important is that Mount Union and Whitewater wound up on opposite sides because that's just how it happened.  If they wind up on the same side or even in the same region, fine.  If not, also fine.  But it would be bad for the process here if the committee intentionally put them together.

True but I have a skeptical eye about intentionality.  You could take Pat's bracket and literally swap Wheaton w UWW with zero impact except pitting the purples in the semis.  Those schools are 90 miles apart.

Are you advocating for intentionally pairing UWW and Mount Union on the same side? 

[tsgktx]

My question is: If UMHB takes care of business against ETBU and puts on an impressive demonstration and HSU struggles but wins against LC. What happens with Pool B at that point?