Pool C -- 2015

[jknezek]

I know there are many, many ways to look at the history and form an opinion as to who has played a tougher playoff schedule.  We each have our preferences on what to look at.  I'm on record as having assembled a list of teams I consider top competition based on their track record of playing competitively against the best teams.
Here is the list of the top teams played by Mt and UWW in the playoffs (not Stagg) since 2007:

UMHB:           Mt- 1x, UWW-3 x's (once on road)
Linfield:          Mt- 0x, UWW- 3x's (unless we go back to 05)
Wesley:           Mt- 4x's, UWW- 1x (unless we go back to 05, 06)
NCC:               Mt- 1 x, UWW- 2 x's
Wabash:          Mt-1 x,  UWW- 2 x's
St. Thomas:    Mt- 0, UWW-1x
Bethel:             Mt- 1x, UWW- 0
JCU:                 Mt- 1x, UWW- 0
Wartburg:         Mt- 0, UWW- 2x's

In 2010 UWW also played Franklin and Trine- both teams had top QB's in the country.
This is what I look at when I make the comment that Mt's had an easier path to the Stagg.

You're just not giving any credit to the teams, especially the teams from the East region, that have fallen to Mount Union. 

Again, your argument here is that Mount Union has it easy because they get play a bunch of teams that are bad.  What's your evidence for those teams being bad?   They can't beat Mount Union.  You've created an ouroboros here.

The main evidence the last 2 years has been Mount not being competitive against Whitewater while multiple West teams were competitive.

And the year before that? When the vaunted West champion didn't do as well against UMU in the Stagg as UMHB did in Alliance? Are we just picking the ranges that prove our own point?

[d-train]

The main evidence the last 2 years has been Mount not being competitive against Whitewater while multiple West teams were competitive.

That's simple enough and better than emma17's evidence. Unfortunately it's a little late.  When someone throws 'ouroboros' into a message board post - well - that's a virtual mic drop.  Discussion over.  Wally wins.

[edward de vere]

Had to look up "ouroboros."

Also had to look up "competitive" as I, evidently foolishly, thought a 43-34 game was competitive.

[Andy Jamison - Walla Walla Wildcat]

Perhaps a good way to look at how difficult each particular team's path has been in the playoffs would be to use the Final D3.com Top 25 Poll.  We first look at the bracket each team is in to see what rankings (if any) teams have.  We then look at matchups for each team.  Finally we look at score differential. 

2014 - Wesley had a very difficult bracket with them ranked #7, Hobart #9 and JHU @#10 and no one else...(Hobart and JHU rankings are definitely suspect given how badly Wesley beat Hobart AND how badly Wesley lost to MUC

2014 - MUC had #2 MUC, #5 John Carroll, #8 Wheaton, #14 W&J, #17 Wittenberg, #22 Centre (though W&J & Wittenberg rankings are suspect given the 67-0 defeat W&J suffered in round 2 to MUC)

2014 #1 UWW, #4 Wartburg, #12 St Johns #13 Wabash  #16 St Thomas

2014 #6 MHB #3 Linfield #11 Widener #18 Chapman #19 TLU #23 Muhlenberg #25 Del Valley

So MUC played #UR - #14 - #5 - #7 - #1
UWW played #UR - #13 - #4 #3 #2

The evidence is that the East is a very weak region in the playoffs with the exception of Wesley.  There are many examples of East teams losing badly and very few examples of East teams winning beyond the 1st round (aside from Wesley) and being competitive in the next round...

Hopefully the playoff selection committee won't waste a Pool C bid on any team from the East or if they do put them in a non-MUC bracket...

[wabndy]

Had to look up "ouroboros."

Don't be too impressed. It's the kind of word folks like Wally would throw out there early in class so that they could then take the rest of the discussion off.

[wally_wabash]

2014 - Wesley had a very difficult bracket with them ranked #7, Hobart #9 and JHU @#10 and no one else...(Hobart and JHU rankings are definitely suspect given how badly Wesley beat Hobart AND how badly Wesley lost to MUC

2014 - MUC had #2 MUC, #5 John Carroll, #8 Wheaton, #14 W&J, #17 Wittenberg, #22 Centre (though W&J & Wittenberg rankings are suspect given the 67-0 defeat W&J suffered in round 2 to MUC)

Let's use the rankings to try and evaluate this. 

Except that when the rankings don't directly support my preferred narrative, let's throw out the rankings.  Come on. 

[02 Warhawk]

For sh!^s and giggles, I took a look at every playoff game that Mount and UWW has played in during the years they've met in the Stagg Bowl. Here's what I found of rounds 1-4 (before playing each other).

2005-2014 (omitted 2012) - 9 years

Total margin of victory
UMU: +1110
UWW: +846

Avg margin of victory by year
05
Mount: 23.75
UWW: 25.5

06
Mount: 24
UWW: 21.25

07
Mount: 41.25
UWW: 25

08
Mount: 34.75
UWW: 19

09
Mount: 43
UWW: 32.25

10
Mount: 31.75
UWW: 18.75

11
Mount: 19.75
UWW: 31.5

13
Mount: 13.25
UWW: 16.5

14
Mount: 46
UWW: 21.75

Total average margin of victory per game:
Mount: 30.83
UWW: 23.5

Mount had larger margin of victory 6 of the 9 years in the playoffs. With all things being equal, you would think Mount was the better team (obviously not true since UWW won...oddly enough...6 of the 9 years). However, all things weren't equal....Mount obviously played different teams than UWW to get to the Stagg Bowl. Since Mount outscored their opponents in the playoffs by over a TD more per game than UWW did, you can certainly (at very least) make a good argument that UWW had a tougher road (on average) over the years.

Looking through these stats, the semi's have not been kind to Wesley over the years (and they were suppose to be a VERY strong program in the East). Take all this for what it's worth...it's just a bunch of facts 

[AO]

2014 - Wesley had a very difficult bracket with them ranked #7, Hobart #9 and JHU @#10 and no one else...(Hobart and JHU rankings are definitely suspect given how badly Wesley beat Hobart AND how badly Wesley lost to MUC

2014 - MUC had #2 MUC, #5 John Carroll, #8 Wheaton, #14 W&J, #17 Wittenberg, #22 Centre (though W&J & Wittenberg rankings are suspect given the 67-0 defeat W&J suffered in round 2 to MUC)

Let's use the rankings to try and evaluate this. 

Except that when the rankings don't directly support my preferred narrative, let's throw out the rankings.  Come on.

are we using the final rankings or the rankings at the time of the game? 

[emma17]

I know there are many, many ways to look at the history and form an opinion as to who has played a tougher playoff schedule.  We each have our preferences on what to look at.  I'm on record as having assembled a list of teams I consider top competition based on their track record of playing competitively against the best teams.
Here is the list of the top teams played by Mt and UWW in the playoffs (not Stagg) since 2007:

UMHB:           Mt- 1x, UWW-3 x's (once on road)
Linfield:          Mt- 0x, UWW- 3x's (unless we go back to 05)
Wesley:           Mt- 4x's, UWW- 1x (unless we go back to 05, 06)
NCC:               Mt- 1 x, UWW- 2 x's
Wabash:          Mt-1 x,  UWW- 2 x's
St. Thomas:    Mt- 0, UWW-1x
Bethel:             Mt- 1x, UWW- 0
JCU:                 Mt- 1x, UWW- 0
Wartburg:         Mt- 0, UWW- 2x's

In 2010 UWW also played Franklin and Trine- both teams had top QB's in the country.
This is what I look at when I make the comment that Mt's had an easier path to the Stagg.

You're just not giving any credit to the teams, especially the teams from the East region, that have fallen to Mount Union. 

Again, your argument here is that Mount Union has it easy because they get play a bunch of teams that are bad.  What's your evidence for those teams being bad?   They can't beat Mount Union.  You've created an ouroboros here.

You've proven yourself as quite the wordsmith, including a great knack of twisting words to support an otherwise weak position. 
So the record is straight, I didn't say Mt had it "easy".  Nor did I say Mt "played a bunch of bad teams."  Aahh, but this is the way of Wally, and so many let it slide- but I don't.   

I stand by the list of teams I provided above as 10 years of evidence that Mt has had an easier path to the Stagg Bowl.  Your opinion may be that teams like Washington & Jefferson (67-0), Widener (72-17), Del Val (31-3), Alfred (37-7), Montclair State (62-14), Albright (55-3), Hobart (42-7) and Cortland State (41-14) are all equally deserving of the credit I gave to those on the list above, but I don't agree with you.     

[Ralph Turner]

"ouroboros"

That is why we like D3.

Do you honestly think that we would talk about an ouroboros if this were a D-1 message board?   

[Ralph Turner]

I stand with emma on this one.

The last non-Wesley, South Region team that defeated an ASC team in the post-season was (ETBU at) Lycoming, 13-7, in the snow, in the second round of the 2003 post-season!  (ETBU was practicing in 70 degree weather that week in Marshall TX.)

My impression is that UMU gets to draw from a weaker portion of the country. The balance in the "new" NJAC and the E8 is fun to watch, but I don't think that they are as tough as the playoff teams coming out of the ASC, CCIW, MIAC, NWC, IIAC and WIAC, which are the teams that you have to beat to get to the Stagg from that side of the bracket.

As Pat C opined earlier this week, UMU will be likely be the "easternmost" seed in the bracket.

[ExTartanPlayer]

My impression is that UMU gets to draw from a weaker portion of the country. The balance in the "new" NJAC and the E8 is fun to watch, but I don't think that they are as tough as the playoff teams coming out of the ASC, CCIW, MIAC, NWC, IIAC and WIAC, which are the teams that you have to beat to get to the Stagg from that side of the bracket.

Mount Union beat North Central (CCIW champion) in the 2013 semifinals.
Mount Union beat UMHB (ASC) in the 2012 semifinals (and then beat St. Thomas, MIAC champion, in the Stagg Bowl).
Mount Union beat a Wabash team (that had just beaten CCIW champion North Central) in the 2011 quarterfinals.
Mount Union beat Bethel (MIAC) in the semifinals in 2010.
Mount Union beat Wheaton (CCIW) in the semifinals in 2008.
Mount Union beat Bethel (MIAC) in the semifinals in 2007.

Tell me again how Mount Union is getting to the Stagg without playing teams from the ASC, CCIW, and MIAC?

[wabndy]

"ouroboros"

That is why we like D3.

Do you honestly think that we would talk about an ouroboros if this were a D-1 message board?   

http://youtu.be/6n6jxMKUluE
I'd pay good money to hear Phyllis from Mulga, AL say "ouroboros"

[Ralph Turner]

My impression is that UMU gets to draw from a weaker portion of the country. The balance in the "new" NJAC and the E8 is fun to watch, but I don't think that they are as tough as the playoff teams coming out of the ASC, CCIW, MIAC, NWC, IIAC and WIAC, which are the teams that you have to beat to get to the Stagg from that side of the bracket.

Mount Union beat North Central (CCIW champion) in the 2013 semifinals. Yes and the memorable 62-59 win over Wesley in the Quarterfinals. Only 34-20 over W&J in the 1st round, tho'.

Mount Union beat UMHB (ASC) in the 2012 semifinals (and then beat St. Thomas, MIAC champion, in the Stagg Bowl). But CNU, JHU, & Widener were blowouts before the UMHB heartbreaker.

Mount Union beat a Wabash team (that had just beaten CCIW champion North Central) in the 2011 quarterfinals. Yes, but only 28-21 over Wesley in the semis who had beaten UMHB 27-24 in the quarterfinals. Wabash, Centre and Benedictine before that.  IMHO the SAA, NCAC and NACC are not that same level.

Mount Union beat Bethel (MIAC) in the semifinals in 2010. (St Lawrence/LL, Del Valley/MAC and Alfred/E8 were monkey-stomps.  Acknowledging that Bethel almost was at 34-14.)

Mount Union beat Wheaton (CCIW) in the semifinals in 2008. (Randy Mac, Hobart and Cortland St, all monkey stomps before the Wheaton Monkey Stomp.)

Mount Union beat Bethel (yes, a double monkey stomp) (MIAC) in the semifinals in 2007.  (Ithaca, TCNJ and SJF monkey stomp and double monkey stomps times 2)

Tell me again how Mount Union is getting to the Stagg without playing teams from the ASC, CCIW, and MIAC?

Thanks for the discussion.

For me, the other side of the bracket, the UMHB side in most cases, has seemed harder to me.

[Ralph Turner]

"ouroboros"

That is why we like D3.

Do you honestly think that we would talk about an ouroboros if this were a D-1 message board?   

http://youtu.be/6n6jxMKUluE
I'd pay good money to hear Phyllis from Mulga, AL say "ouroboros"

Phyllis is a Crimson Tide fan.

(Do you know how many Alabama Freshman football players it takes to change a light bulb?  Oh sorry, that is sophomore level curricula...     WAR EAGLE!)