Pool C -- 2015

[ExTartanPlayer]

All that other stuff you added about the earlier-round games?  That's irrelevant.  Whitewater is playing the same kinds of teams in rounds 1 and 2.  Go read my post on the previous page with the full 2011-2014 paths-to-the-Stagg.  UWW has played teams from the MWC, MIAA, and HCAC in the first 2 rounds.  That's a wash with Mount's first-and-second-round teams.

I'm also not really sure what the scores of games added there.  You posited that the difference was Mount getting a bunch of games against East teams (true) and not playing against the ASC, CCIW, MIAC, and so on.  Except that's not really true.  Mount has played teams from one or more of those conferences in 6 of the last 8 seasons en route to the Stagg Bowl. 

I mean, at most the difference we're talking about UWW playing Linfield and UMHB a few times each while Mount plays Wesley and then a bunch of other teams once (which does include a representative selection of the ASC, CCIW, and MIAC).  It's probably true that a couple times UWW has played two of those teams while Mount has only played one.  I won't deny that.  But I think the reports of Mount playing a significantly easier schedule than UWW in getting to the Stagg are greatly exaggerated.  I stacked up the 2011, 2013, and 2014 paths to the Stagg for each and really don't see much difference.  Both teams typically play a cupcake in Round 1, a Wabash/W&J type in Round 2, and then by the semis all bets are off and you're playing Wesley, Linfield, UMHB, etc.  If there's any difference it's maybe that Whitewater gets a tougher quarterfinal than Mount.

[smedindy]

For CRIPES sake, it's all very small differences. It's not like Mt. Union is playing Kenyon and Whitewater is playing the MIAC all-star team...

[Ralph Turner]

Thanks, ExTartarPlayer for helping me refresh my memory on the playoffs.

I think that my focus is now that UMU, usually the "easternmost" seed in the playoffs, gets little opposition from teams east of there, with the exception of Wesley and the occasional SJF in the Quarterfinals.  The slug fest in the other side of the bracket is where the competition is.

We ASC fans would love to have a first round cupcake more frequently.

But, the price of the playoffs is "geographical proximity" and so we may be looking at a

UMHB at HSU
going to McMinnville
maybe going to Wesley
then hopefully to UWW or Tommieland.

I can imagine UMHB and HSU going to 3OT and UMHB winning by a PAT conversion.  After 135 minutes of football, HSU had scored 1 more point than UMHB.

Then UMHB goes on the road to the Stagg Bowl as they did in 2004.

Would the voters make HSU no worse than #3 or #4 in that case?

[emma17]

Sometimes it seems some of you try so hard to ignore the most obvious facts and bury yourself in minutiae.
I think it's fair to say UMHB and Linfield have been recognized as the teams closest to dethroning UWW and Mt. Going back to 2005, UWW has played those teams 7 times more than Mt has. This isn't a small difference. In Mt's game vs UMHB they won in the last minute. Adding 7 games against the highest quality teams in the country certainly increases the chances of a Mt defeat before the Stagg.
The next team on the totem pole of national contender (in the minds of some) is Wesley. Going back to 2005, UWW has played them 3 times (once in DE), while Mt has played them 4 times.
10 out of 10 times I'd rather play Wesley over Linfield and UMHB if I'm betting on a UWW win.
Add 2014 Wartburg, 2010 NCC (on the road) and 2011 St Thomas as teams many feel were national championship caliber that UWW had to get through. It's not even close folks.

I agree wholeheartedly w Ralph in regard to UMHB's difficult road. Mt simply hasn't had to endure playoff challenges anywhere near as often.

[wally_wabash]

But you're not saying that Mount Union has had it easy..  Just to be clear- this is NOT the point you are trying to make. 

[emma17]

But you're not saying that Mount Union has had it easy..  Just to be clear- this is NOT the point you are trying to make.

I'm saying UWW has had to play many more games against championship caliber teams in order to reach the Stagg. That's what this conversation has been about no matter how you try to make it about something else.
Do you want to dispute the statement that UWW has had to play many more games in the playoffs against championship caliber teams than Mt has?

[ExTartanPlayer]

I think it's fair to say UMHB and Linfield have been recognized as the teams closest to dethroning UWW and Mt. Going back to 2005, UWW has played those teams 7 times more than Mt has. This isn't a small difference. In Mt's game vs UMHB they won in the last minute. Adding 7 games against the highest quality teams in the country certainly increases the chances of a Mt defeat before the Stagg. The next team on the totem pole of national contender (in the minds of some) is Wesley. Going back to 2005, UWW has played them 3 times (once in DE), while Mt has played them 4 times. 10 out of 10 times I'd rather play Wesley over Linfield and UMHB if I'm betting on a UWW win.

This is probably the strongest point of your argument - that UWW has played more "Linfield/UMHB" games while Mount has played more "Wesley" games in the quarters and semifinals, and at least for the last two or three years, Linfield/UMHB have been better than Wesley.  Of course, then there's that pesky 2011 when Linfield and UMHB were both on the Mount Union side of the bracket, but the dastardly Wesley Wolverines went out and beat the Other Purple Powers...so instead of playing either one that year, instead Mount played a Wesley team that beat both of them head-to-head in consecutive weeks.  Somehow this counts against Mount the way you're doing the analysis, because Mount didn't get to play either team that year, they merely beat the team that beat both of them.

Just counting the number of times each team has played each other team isn't enough, emma.  It misses really important stuff, like the fact that Mount just didn't play Linfield or UMHB one year when both teams were on their side of the bracket because, you know, stupid Wesley went out and beat them.   It also is dumb because teams change from year to year; the way you're doing the counting, Mount's game against that fabulous 2011 Wesley team counts the same as Whitewater thrashing 2005 Wesley in their very first playoff appearance.  Does anyone seriously think a game against 2005 Wesley and 2011 Wesley are the same thing?

Instead of just counting the number of times each school has played each other school, it is much more informative to stack up the actual round-by-round matchups for Mount and UWW (like I did for 2011-2014).  Do that, and show me how many times UWW played a significantly better opponent than Mount did in the equivalent round of the playoffs (or just look at my 2011-2014 results and tell me which weeks that UWW was playing an opponent far superior to the opponent Mount was playing at the same time).  You really won't find more than one or two times where UWW was playing a beastly opponent in the same week Mount was playing a slug.

Add 2014 Wartburg, 2010 NCC (on the road) and 2011 St Thomas as teams many feel were national championship caliber that UWW had to get through. It's not even close folks.

Now we're back to putting blinders on and pretending only one team has to play these games.

Mount beat 2013 North Central (a team that was arguably better than 2010 NCC, and which blew out MIAC champ Bethel the week before), beat MIAC Bethel twice (including a season where Bethel beat St. Thomas in the quarterfinals), and CCIW Wheaton for good measure.  They're beating the same caliber teams you cite here as examples of UWW's tougher road - in some cases, actually beating the same teams, period.

[emma17]

Ex, like I said earlier, there's lots of ways to look at the history. If it makes you feel smarter, then go ahead and look at the round by round matchups for each team back to 2005. I don't need to do that to inform my opinion. I know who the top teams in the country have been for the past decade. In the past decade, UWW has played UMHB and Linfield 8 times, while Mt has played them once.
Since 2005 Mt had played Wesley 4 times and UWW played them 3 times.
UWW also played 3 other teams that I believe the majority of D3 fans would say were championship caliber in Wartburg, NCC and St Thomas (perhaps you can argue St Thomas). 
Neither Bethel nor Wheaton were viewed as national championship caliber.
I'm happy to review specific teams Mt played since 2005 that you feel were national championship caliber- it's possible I'm missing some.
As it stands, UWW has faced the teams consistently considered by the D3 world to be the likely challengers to the 2 purple powers many more times that Mt has- and that means UWW had a harder road to the Stagg.

Edit- 2013 NCC is certainly a championship caliber team. That doesn't mean 2010 NCC wasn't a championship caliber team. As to which was better, that's a different argument.
As a reminder, this isn't an attack on Mt, there is no fault to them for the way the brackets came out. No doubt they'd welcome more games against the best of the best.
This is an opportunity for the committee to send one or two Mt Union's way.

[wabndy]

As a reminder, this isn't an attack on Mt, there is no fault to them for the way the brackets came out. No doubt they'd welcome more games against the best of the best.
This is an opportunity for the committee to send one or two Mt Union's way.

I seriously doubt the committee will be looking to validate Mt Union's legitimacy in Salem when making up the bracket.  I do expect them to group brackets geographically - which means that Mt. Union will probably have the opportunity to play Wesley before they have an opportunity to play Linfield.  Fretting over what if - as in - what if Alliance was within 500 miles of the MIAC and WIAC is pretty much pointless unless and until we can get an airline to sponsor this tournament.  The NCAA's mapping software shows Whitewater and Alliance to be 505 miles apart.  Perhaps if someone can recalculate that distance and shave a few miles off we can get the preliminary round matchup you seek.

[wesleydad]

This is fun to read.  Since both teams can not play the same teams each year to see how they would do against the same teams perception comes into play as to which teams are actually better.  On paper it looks like UWW plays tougher teams, but in actuality can you really tell?  Each game brings with it it's own dynamic and sometimes they turn ugly as a result and the losing team looks weaker despite what they did the weeks prior to reach the game against Mount or UWW.  In the end there is not much that can be proved other than Mount and UWW are the 2 best teams until someone else starts beating them more than once in a great while.  I agree with Emma in that the committee has a chance to balance perceived strengths of regions by mixing things up a little and if that means putting UWW on the same side of the bracket as Mount so be it.  If not Mount maybe Linfield, I know the Mount faithful would love to play that game.  Round 1 and 2 are usually not competitive for most teams as the top 8 teams are usually much better than the rest.  How competitive the quarters and semis are sometimes just depends on how the teams match up.  Sometimes the games are just match up issues and the loser looks bad from the result.  I hope the brackets looked balanced on paper and some of the North/West power teams are moved to even things out.  It should be fun to see.

[D3MAFAN]

This is fun to read.  Since both teams can not play the same teams each year to see how they would do against the same teams perception comes into play as to which teams are actually better.  On paper it looks like UWW plays tougher teams, but in actuality can you really tell?  Each game brings with it it's own dynamic and sometimes they turn ugly as a result and the losing team looks weaker despite what they did the weeks prior to reach the game against Mount or UWW.  In the end there is not much that can be proved other than Mount and UWW are the 2 best teams until someone else starts beating them more than once in a great while.  I agree with Emma in that the committee has a chance to balance perceived strengths of regions by mixing things up a little and if that means putting UWW on the same side of the bracket as Mount so be it.  If not Mount maybe Linfield, I know the Mount faithful would love to play that game.  Round 1 and 2 are usually not competitive for most teams as the top 8 teams are usually much better than the rest.  How competitive the quarters and semis are sometimes just depends on how the teams match up.  Sometimes the games are just match up issues and the loser looks bad from the result.  I hope the brackets looked balanced on paper and some of the North/West power teams are moved to even things out.  It should be fun to see.

Good response Wesleydad, here's to hoping everyone has a wonderful weekend and teams have an injury free weekend.

[USee]

I think it's fair to say UMHB and Linfield have been recognized as the teams closest to dethroning UWW and Mt. Going back to 2005, UWW has played those teams 7 times more than Mt has. This isn't a small difference. In Mt's game vs UMHB they won in the last minute. Adding 7 games against the highest quality teams in the country certainly increases the chances of a Mt defeat before the Stagg. The next team on the totem pole of national contender (in the minds of some) is Wesley. Going back to 2005, UWW has played them 3 times (once in DE), while Mt has played them 4 times. 10 out of 10 times I'd rather play Wesley over Linfield and UMHB if I'm betting on a UWW win.

This is probably the strongest point of your argument - that UWW has played more "Linfield/UMHB" games while Mount has played more "Wesley" games in the quarters and semifinals, and at least for the last two or three years, Linfield/UMHB have been better than Wesley.  Of course, then there's that pesky 2011 when Linfield and UMHB were both on the Mount Union side of the bracket, but the dastardly Wesley Wolverines went out and beat the Other Purple Powers...so instead of playing either one that year, instead Mount played a Wesley team that beat both of them head-to-head in consecutive weeks.  Somehow this counts against Mount the way you're doing the analysis, because Mount didn't get to play either team that year, they merely beat the team that beat both of them.

Just counting the number of times each team has played each other team isn't enough, emma.  It misses really important stuff, like the fact that Mount just didn't play Linfield or UMHB one year when both teams were on their side of the bracket because, you know, stupid Wesley went out and beat them.   It also is dumb because teams change from year to year; the way you're doing the counting, Mount's game against that fabulous 2011 Wesley team counts the same as Whitewater thrashing 2005 Wesley in their very first playoff appearance.  Does anyone seriously think a game against 2005 Wesley and 2011 Wesley are the same thing?

Instead of just counting the number of times each school has played each other school, it is much more informative to stack up the actual round-by-round matchups for Mount and UWW (like I did for 2011-2014).  Do that, and show me how many times UWW played a significantly better opponent than Mount did in the equivalent round of the playoffs (or just look at my 2011-2014 results and tell me which weeks that UWW was playing an opponent far superior to the opponent Mount was playing at the same time).  You really won't find more than one or two times where UWW was playing a beastly opponent in the same week Mount was playing a slug.

Add 2014 Wartburg, 2010 NCC (on the road) and 2011 St Thomas as teams many feel were national championship caliber that UWW had to get through. It's not even close folks.

Now we're back to putting blinders on and pretending only one team has to play these games.

Mount beat 2013 North Central (a team that was arguably better than 2010 NCC, and which blew out MIAC champ Bethel the week before), beat MIAC Bethel twice (including a season where Bethel beat St. Thomas in the quarterfinals), and CCIW Wheaton for good measure.  They're beating the same caliber teams you cite here as examples of UWW's tougher road - in some cases, actually beating the same teams, period.

Ex,

This is some great color adding to an already interesting discussion. +K

[joelmama]

Ex, like I said earlier, there's lots of ways to look at the history. If it makes you feel smarter, then go ahead and look at the round by round matchups for each team back to 2005. I don't need to do that to inform my opinion.

Yes that is just another way of saying you do not need to look at the facts I already know what the "real" story is.  Yes there are several ways to look at this unfortunately you only recognize your way.

[cover2]

Halftime UMHB 34 ETBU 6

[ExTartanPlayer]

As it stands, UWW has faced the teams consistently considered by the D3 world to be the likely challengers to the 2 purple powers many more times that Mt has- and that means UWW had a harder road to the Stagg.

By "the D3 world" you mean by emma.  Just think we should clear that up.

UWW also played 3 other teams that I believe the majority of D3 fans would say were championship caliber in Wartburg, NCC and St Thomas (perhaps you can argue St Thomas).  Neither Bethel nor Wheaton were viewed as national championship caliber.

No, I'd absolutely agree with you that St. Thomas belongs up there.  UST is the only team not named Mount or UWW to make a Stagg Bowl since the Purple Reign began.  They absolutely belong on this list.  However...

In 2010, Bethel beat St. Thomas the week before Mount beat them.  So why does UWW get a "hard game point" for playing St. Thomas, but Mount not get a "hard game point" for playing a team that beat St. Thomas to get there?  Oh, wait, it gets better.  That Bethel team also beat Wartburg.  So 2010 Bethel beat not one but two of the emma-approved "championship caliber" teams in the quoted passage above (both on the road), but 2010 Bethel is somehow not good enough to count for this list.

I think it's funny how you just pick the teams that count as "championship caliber" games, then ignore or dismiss any games that don't support your position.  UWW playing St. Thomas/Wartburg count as games against "championship caliber" teams; Mount playing a team that beat both of those teams on the road in the playoffs doesn't count.  Um, OK.