Pool C -- 2015

[Ralph Turner]

Okay.
Projections for 6 Pool C's?.
Is Whitworth in?

[MonroviaCat]

Okay.
Projections for 6 Pool C's?.
Is Whitworth in?

yes!  Definitely maybe or not!

[ExTartanPlayer]

Okay.
Projections for 6 Pool C's?.
Is Whitworth in?

No more RR's to help us out...

I don't think there were any shockers that would have changed the candidates, correct?  Notable happenings:

Salisbury survived against Frostburg State, keeping Wesley on the East Pool C board. 

HSU took care of business and UMHB took care of ETBU, so I'm assuming we'll get HSU as the Pool B, with UMHB as the first Pool C on the board from the South. 

Moravian lost and will drop, giving Guilford a clear hold on the next-team-up spot in the South. 

Adrian beating Trine has the domino effect of giving Albion the MIAA Pool A bid, which matters because if Olivet had been the Pool A bid, Albion would have been the first Pool C up from the North.  Now, it will be...Ohio Northern?  John Carroll?  I think...

Another key factor, which we will not find out until we hear the selections, is whether UWP jumps Whitworth in the final rankings.  As wally said, and I agree, UWP boasts a pretty strong resume (and with IWU losing, I assume that NCC is fairly secure that they'll remain in the RR's, giving UWP two regionally ranked wins) and probably would compare favorably to other candidates on the board late in the process.  But Whitworth could gum up the works a little bit because they're not as clear of a slam-dunk against candidates like Guilford who may be around in the latter stages.

My gut feeling without having all the data assembled

Pool B - HSU

Pool C (in some order)

Wesley
UWW
UMHB

(Pause: in what world would we have expected that those three teams, subject of much spilled ink above regarding who gets to play the "championship caliber" card, would have been Pool C selections?)

St. John's

Those seem to be the four most obvious candidates.  Past that, who's likely to be on the board?  Based on wally's last projection from the RR's, the teams who will be on the board at this time are probably:

East: Alfred
North: ONU/John Carroll
South: Guilford
West: UWP/Whitworth

If UWP is the West team on the board, I think they're in at this point.  But if Whitworth is the West team on the board, it's a little different ballgame.  I don't know if Whitworth's profile compares favorably against Guilford or even Alfred.  And that could be a problem for UWP, because there are only two spots left and if Guilford is the pick here, that means UWP never sees the table.  Or, even if they do, they come up last against an Alfred and ONU/JCU team that have been sitting on the boards for four or five rounds of discussion.  Should that matter?  No.  Will it?  Maybe.

[smedindy]

Alfred lost to SJF. They're done. ONU will be ahead of JCU due to H2H.

[smedindy]

I bet it's Guilford and either UW-P or Whitworth, depending on the West region rankings.

[ExTartanPlayer]

Alfred lost to SJF. They're done. ONU will be ahead of JCU due to H2H.

Oops, missed that.  Thanks.

I agree that it will probably be UWP/Whitworth or Guilford.  Which means that the West RAC's order is crucial.  If they have UWP ahead of Whitworth, I think our last 2 selections are UWP and then Guilford.  If it's the other way around, I think Guilford goes in Round 5 and then maybe Whitworth in round 6 (or even ONU, although I would disagree with that pick).

[SaintsFAN]

This is fun to read.  Since both teams can not play the same teams each year to see how they would do against the same teams perception comes into play as to which teams are actually better.  On paper it looks like UWW plays tougher teams, but in actuality can you really tell?  Each game brings with it it's own dynamic and sometimes they turn ugly as a result and the losing team looks weaker despite what they did the weeks prior to reach the game against Mount or UWW.  In the end there is not much that can be proved other than Mount and UWW are the 2 best teams until someone else starts beating them more than once in a great while.  I agree with Emma in that the committee has a chance to balance perceived strengths of regions by mixing things up a little and if that means putting UWW on the same side of the bracket as Mount so be it.  If not Mount maybe Linfield, I know the Mount faithful would love to play that game.  Round 1 and 2 are usually not competitive for most teams as the top 8 teams are usually much better than the rest.  How competitive the quarters and semis are sometimes just depends on how the teams match up.  Sometimes the games are just match up issues and the loser looks bad from the result.  I hope the brackets looked balanced on paper and some of the North/West power teams are moved to even things out.  It should be fun to see.

Nice post, wesleydad.  +K

Hope all is well for you and the fam.

[Ralph Turner]

This is my plea.
On the South Region Fan Poll, HSU & UMHB at are the top.
ETBU executed a perfect game plan in a mud puddle vs HSU.
The ASC post season (non-ASC) record is 27-18..
In the last 10 years the Centennial (think JHU) is 5-10.
I would love to have a 2nd round game between JHU & HSU or UMHB.
In the South, criteria are one thing, but HSU & UMHB are no worse than 3/4.
Please.
Hendrix to UMHB.
La Verne or someone to HSU.
Postpone  a UMHB HSU game to 2nd or even 3rd round.

[smedindy]

Ralph, if Whitworth makes it then LaVerne is the only true island. Can Hendrix drive to either HSU or UMHB?

This would also jam Linfield vs. Whitworth in a rematch.

If UW-P makes it and Whitworth does not then I bet Linfield plays LaVerne and you Texas guys have your rematch, again.

[Mr. Ypsi]

A query: does anyone think that UMHB's double monkey-stomp of ETBU (who gave HSU their loss) overcomes HSU's 3-pt home win over UMHB for Pool B purposes?  For polling purposes it already has for my ballot (home field is traditionally considered about 3 points, so the h-t-h is a virtual tie), but I'm dubious whether Pool B will see it that way.

(Since UWO also beat UWW by 3 at home, the same reasoning caused me to NOT immediately put UWO higher than UWW, but later games [most especially UWO's double monkey-stomp over UWP] have convinced me to place UWO above UWW.)

[SaintsFAN]

This is my plea.
On the South Region Fan Poll, HSU & UMHB at are the top.
ETBU executed a perfect game plan in a mud puddle vs HSU.
The ASC post season (non-ASC) record is 27-18..
In the last 10 years the Centennial (think JHU) is 5-10.
I would love to have a 2nd round game between JHU & HSU or UMHB.
In the South, criteria are one thing, but HSU & UMHB are no worse than 3/4.
Please.
Hendrix to UMHB.
La Verne or someone to HSU.
Postpone  a UMHB HSU game to 2nd or even 3rd round.

The ASC fans should've started passing the virtual hat around a month ago, Ralph!  Maybe a sizable donation to the NCAA would've helped?

[cave2bens]

Smed - According to my calculations (which are always subject to scrutiny), Belton and Conway are about 478 miles apart and almost all Interstate (slightly less than seven hours).

[jknezek]

Hendrix is the ONLY school within 500 miles of Huntingdon unless Guilford gets in. There is nothing to be done here unless we spring for more flights. Hendrix to Huntingdon, UMHB to HSU, Whitworth to Linfield if they get in, otherwise LaVerne to Linfield. I've been wrong before, but if you are minimizing flights, these match ups have to take place.

Only Guilford making the field can do something about Huntingdon/Hendrix pairing.

[wabndy]

Ralph, if Whitworth makes it then LaVerne is the only true island. Can Hendrix drive to either HSU or UMHB?

This would also jam Linfield vs. Whitworth in a rematch.

If UW-P makes it and Whitworth does not then I bet Linfield plays LaVerne and you Texas guys have your rematch, again.

Hendrix is 524 miles from HSU and 480 from UMHB. 


Use this for official distance calculations: https://web1.ncaa.org/TES/exec/miles

[Hawks88]

Hendrix is the ONLY school within 500 miles of Huntingdon unless Guilford gets in. There is nothing to be done here unless we spring for more flights. Hendrix to Huntingdon, UMHB to HSU, Whitworth to Linfield if they get in, otherwise LaVerne to Linfield. I've been wrong before, but if you are minimizing flights, these match ups have to take place.

Only Guilford making the field can do something about Huntingdon/Hendrix pairing.

I hope you are right about Hendrix to Huntingdon. That's a long drive to Arkansas from Auburn. Hopefully 9-1>8-2 trumps those 147 places of SOS and the common opponent.