Pool C -- 2015

[AO]

If LaVerne was ranked last night, there's not a compelling reason to flip UWP and Whitworth.  It's close, but if the regional committee ranked Whitworth (with a RRO win) ahead of UWP, that's defensible, even if I would disagree.

If La Verne was ranked, then maybe Whitworth wasn't the last pool C and Platteville did get to the board?

. 
I don't think there's any chance that Platteville could have been on the board and not been picked.  Their profile crushed Guilford, RPI, and ONU.

Isn't Whitworth an easy pick over ONU if they have a regionally ranked win?

Not necessarily if ONU had rolled up on various ballots of the committee members.  ONU was in play from the beginning.  Ballot inertia is a real thing

i missed the committee chair on inthehuddle, did he say this happened? 

[wally_wabash]

If LaVerne was ranked last night, there's not a compelling reason to flip UWP and Whitworth.  It's close, but if the regional committee ranked Whitworth (with a RRO win) ahead of UWP, that's defensible, even if I would disagree.

If La Verne was ranked, then maybe Whitworth wasn't the last pool C and Platteville did get to the board?

. 
I don't think there's any chance that Platteville could have been on the board and not been picked.  Their profile crushed Guilford, RPI, and ONU.

Isn't Whitworth an easy pick over ONU if they have a regionally ranked win?

Not necessarily if ONU had rolled up on various ballots of the committee members.  ONU was in play from the beginning.  Ballot inertia is a real thing

i missed the committee chair on inthehuddle, did he say this happened?

No, he didn't address it directly.  It's tough to get them to really open up about the nitty gritty details of the selection process and who went in in what order. 

But Frank Rossi has been interviewing chairs for 8 years and during that time he's sussed out that a byproduct of the ordinal system they use to select the teams is that teams that have lingered around for several rounds tend to roll up ballots.  I thought it was hogwash until we did the mock selection process last year and I saw it happening- and that was just with three of us.  With 8 members I think the effect is probably increased. 

We didn't have ONU rolling up amongst the three of us last night, but we definitely mentioned it as something that could come in to play during the official process.  So if Whitworth was the team that showed up in the 4th or 5th round, I don't think they would have been a slam dunk to jump over ONU on all ballots.  Platteville would have been.  But that's how the order of those rankings can really impact the selection results. 

[bleedpurple]

If LaVerne was ranked last night, there's not a compelling reason to flip UWP and Whitworth.  It's close, but if the regional committee ranked Whitworth (with a RRO win) ahead of UWP, that's defensible, even if I would disagree.

If La Verne was ranked, then maybe Whitworth wasn't the last pool C and Platteville did get to the board?

. 
I don't think there's any chance that Platteville could have been on the board and not been picked.  Their profile crushed Guilford, RPI, and ONU.

Isn't Whitworth an easy pick over ONU if they have a regionally ranked win?

Not necessarily if ONU had rolled up on various ballots of the committee members.  ONU was in play from the beginning.  Ballot inertia is a real thing

i missed the committee chair on inthehuddle, did he say this happened?

But Frank Rossi has been interviewing chairs for 8 years and during that time he's sussed out that a byproduct of the ordinal system they use to select the teams is that teams that have lingered around for several rounds tend to roll up ballots.  I thought it was hogwash until we did the mock selection process last year and I saw it happening- and that was just with three of us. er of those rankings can really impact the selection results.

Wally, I find it troubling that you use "sussed" and "ordinal" in the same sentence and then come back with "hogwash" in the next. I would have expected "buncombe" out of you. smh 

[wally_wabash]

Something for everybody, bleed.   

[AO]

If LaVerne was ranked last night, there's not a compelling reason to flip UWP and Whitworth.  It's close, but if the regional committee ranked Whitworth (with a RRO win) ahead of UWP, that's defensible, even if I would disagree.

If La Verne was ranked, then maybe Whitworth wasn't the last pool C and Platteville did get to the board?

. 
I don't think there's any chance that Platteville could have been on the board and not been picked.  Their profile crushed Guilford, RPI, and ONU.

Isn't Whitworth an easy pick over ONU if they have a regionally ranked win?

Not necessarily if ONU had rolled up on various ballots of the committee members.  ONU was in play from the beginning.  Ballot inertia is a real thing

i missed the committee chair on inthehuddle, did he say this happened?

No, he didn't address it directly.  It's tough to get them to really open up about the nitty gritty details of the selection process and who went in in what order. 

But Frank Rossi has been interviewing chairs for 8 years and during that time he's sussed out that a byproduct of the ordinal system they use to select the teams is that teams that have lingered around for several rounds tend to roll up ballots.  I thought it was hogwash until we did the mock selection process last year and I saw it happening- and that was just with three of us.  With 8 members I think the effect is probably increased. 

We didn't have ONU rolling up amongst the three of us last night, but we definitely mentioned it as something that could come in to play during the official process.  So if Whitworth was the team that showed up in the 4th or 5th round, I don't think they would have been a slam dunk to jump over ONU on all ballots.  Platteville would have been.  But that's how the order of those rankings can really impact the selection results.

Ok, listened to the archive, you were right, we didn't get any information about pool C.   This non-disclosure agreement they seem to all have isn't written somewhere is it?  Perhaps we'll eventually get a committee that's willing to be transparent.

All we know is they didn't correct the regional rankings.  La Verne was probably not in the rankings.  I don't see how anyone could justify Ohio Northern over Whitworth in that scenario. 

At the very least the chair could have assured us that the dangers of ballot inertia was discussed.

The one change he would lobby for?  The elimination of all projections by you and Pat!!  This was by far the worst committee chair interview I've heard in hoops or football.

[wally_wabash]

Some overall impressions from the field:

St. Thomas Region:
- As soon as they showed LaVerne at St. Thomas I knew Whitworth was in and that UWP was most likely out. 
- I'm not super thrilled about the regular season rematch with St. John's and Dubuque.  I'm not sure there's an easy swap for this though.  Once you get out to Minnesota, 500 miles doesn't find as many D3 teams as it does a little further east. 
- The second round possible Tommie-Johnnie rematch is also a little unfortunate, but less so.  Again, that far west, it gets tricky to pod up 4 teams that won't have to fly. 
- The bottom half of this region is pretty juicy.  Albion's offense vs. Wabash's defense is interesting.  TMC facing the W&L option is also interesting.  Winners of those games will play a fun second round game, no matter who advances. 
- Overall, I like the teams in this region and the balance.  Good job here. 

Linfield Region:
- I think the committee deserves some applause here for not grouping the NWC and ASC teams together.  That totally could have happened and they found a way to avoid that.  For as much grousing as people do about the committee's supposed agenda, this was a fantastic and unnecessary move.  So kudos. 
- Salisbury and Cortland were spared the Mount Union dead end, but the winner's prize is a cross country flight to Linfield.  Good luck with that.  But here again, setting this up allowed them to keep NWC and ASC apart for another round.  Smart move. 
- Then you have the other islands.  HSU/UMHB was destined to happen here, but it isn't a surprise anymore so we can't be upset.  Huntingdon really only had one dance partner to choose from. 
- Overall, I think they did the best they could with the island teams here.  Better than I think most of us thought would happen. 

Mount Union Region:
- Albeit in a nontraditional part of the bracket, Mount Union appears to be the overall #1 seed. 
- Let the hand wringing begin about Mount Union getting matched up with all of the East teams.  I don't know what you can really do differently.  Mount Union is the easternmost top seed.  They have to play somebody. 
- Norwich is spared Mount Union thanks to distance.  Congrats, Albright.
- I really like the possibility of a Wesley/Hopkins game.  Think that could be a fun one. 
- Overall, this appears to be the region with the least amount of depth, but it was going to happen somewhere.  With so much depth of quality east of Ohio, I think this kind of a quadrant was more or less destined to happen. 

UW-Oshkosh Region:
- Woo.  Tough sledding through this quadrant. 
- All of these matchups make sense to me. 
- Franklin kind of gets a surprise home game again, again with a team that I think was the big surprise to make the field.  ONU can make life tough for Franklin I think. 
- We heard some talk about Wheaton possibly making a #1 seed.  They would appear to be the top #2 seed, paired with the #4 overall seed.  Fat lot of good that did them.  They have to run through the defending national champion and then the WIAC champion if they want to win this region.  Brutal two-step.  That Wheaton-UWW game will be a doozy. 
- Overall, I wish they could have moved one of the top three seeds in the region elsewhere, but there's not a good place to do it.  You can really only move one of those teams into the St. Thomas which would create the same problem there.  Going to be a really physical region. 

[wally_wabash]

Ok, listened to the archive, you were right, we didn't get any information about pool C.   This non-disclosure agreement they seem to all have isn't written somewhere is it?  Perhaps we'll eventually get a committee that's willing to be transparent.

All we know is they didn't correct the regional rankings.  La Verne was probably not in the rankings.  I don't see how anyone could justify Ohio Northern over Whitworth in that scenario. 

At the very least the chair could have assured us that the dangers of ballot inertia was discussed.

The one change he would lobby for?  The elimination of all projections by you and Pat!!  This was by far the worst committee chair interview I've heard in hoops or football.

I don't think it's quite right to say "correct the regional rankings" as if there was something erroneous.  Those rankings are put together by the votes of 8 people tasked with paying attention to that region and applying the criteria to that subset of teams.  We can disagree with them- and I disagree with Whitworth being ranked above Platteville- but I wouldn't say that it is wrong per se.  It's just different than the way I would have ordered them. 

[AO]

Ok, listened to the archive, you were right, we didn't get any information about pool C.   This non-disclosure agreement they seem to all have isn't written somewhere is it?  Perhaps we'll eventually get a committee that's willing to be transparent.

All we know is they didn't correct the regional rankings.  La Verne was probably not in the rankings.  I don't see how anyone could justify Ohio Northern over Whitworth in that scenario. 

At the very least the chair could have assured us that the dangers of ballot inertia was discussed.

The one change he would lobby for?  The elimination of all projections by you and Pat!!  This was by far the worst committee chair interview I've heard in hoops or football.

I don't think it's quite right to say "correct the regional rankings" as if there was something erroneous.  Those rankings are put together by the votes of 8 people tasked with paying attention to that region and applying the criteria to that subset of teams.  We can disagree with them- and I disagree with Whitworth being ranked above Platteville- but I wouldn't say that it is wrong per se.  It's just different than the way I would have ordered them.

What is their argument for Whitworth?  Sounds like it was unanimous in the mock selection show.  You even used the word "correct".   Maybe the real takeaway for coaches this year is to schedule the worst teams for your final game as the committee won't drop you for a late SOS downgrade.

[bleedpurple]

Something for everybody, bleed.   

Ha. nice. 

[wally_wabash]

The one change he would lobby for?  The elimination of all projections by you and Pat!!  This was by far the worst committee chair interview I've heard in hoops or football.

They should be excited that people are interested enough in this that D3football.com does mock bracketing and the mock selection show and thinks that those things are important parts of the end-of-season content. 

[wally_wabash]

What is their argument for Whitworth?  Sounds like it was unanimous in the mock selection show.  You even used the word "correct".   Maybe the real takeaway for coaches this year is to schedule the worst teams for your final game as the committee won't drop you for a late SOS downgrade.

I'm probably the wrong guy to ask because I had been forecasting for two weeks that Platteville ought to eventually pass Whitworth.  That's how I read those tea leaves.  The west committee went a different way. 

[DadofBashWarrior..]

The one change he would lobby for?  The elimination of all projections by you and Pat!!  This was by far the worst committee chair interview I've heard in hoops or football.

They should be excited that people are interested enough in this that D3football.com does mock bracketing and the mock selection show and thinks that those things are important parts of the end-of-season content.

Exactly Wally...

[emma17]

Two thumbs up to those posting since the bracket announcement.  It's nice to not debate that UWP was hurt most by the Pez Dispenser method of regional rankings and that Mt has what appears to be the easiest 8-team bracket.

When comparing bracket difficulty to reach the Stagg I prefer to look at those opponents that most (this word could be debated) D3 fans feel have a pretty good chance of beating the #1 seed.  I didn't finish the Mt region below as I'm curious how people feel about Wesley or JHU.   

Based on how I think the seeds are: 
If St. Thomas makes the Stagg they will have to get through physical games with St. John's, Wabash and Linfield.
If Linfield make the Stagg they will have to get through physical games with Salisbury, Hardin-Simmons or UMHB (I'm going with UMHB) and St. Thomas.
If UWO makes the Stagg they will have to get through physical games with Wheaton or UWW and Mt. Union. 
If Mt makes the Stagg they will have to get through ?? and a physical game with UWO. 

[wally_wabash]

I didn't finish the Mt region below as I'm curious how people feel about Wesley or JHU.   

I don't think JHU can score against the Raiders and if Wesley can figure out how to score (which I'm not really convinced they can), I don't think they can score enough.  I'm not sure that Wesley isn't beat before they even get on the field in that game anymore. 

So, no.  I don't think there's anybody in the Mount Union region that will really challenge them.  They'll get tested by whoever emerges from the Oshkosh region though.  I don't know if any of those teams can beat Mount Union either, but it'll be interesting at least. 

[ExTartanPlayer]

Based on how I think the seeds are: 
If St. Thomas makes the Stagg they will have to get through physical games with St. John's, Wabash and Linfield.
If Linfield make the Stagg they will have to get through physical games with Salisbury, Hardin-Simmons or UMHB (I'm going with UMHB) and St. Thomas.
If UWO makes the Stagg they will have to get through physical games with Wheaton or UWW and Mt. Union. 
If Mt makes the Stagg they will have to get through ?? and a physical game with UWO.

Leaving aside the piece about "physical games" - it's just hard to figure out exactly what that means, and I like your "who is playing a team that actually has a chance of beating the #1 seed" a little better - I would agree that this year, Mount appears to have the easiest path to the final of the four #1 seeds. 

Mount Union's quarterfinal opponent of Wesley/Hopkins certainly looks less daunting than UST's prospective quarterfinal opponent of Wabash, Linfield's prospective game against HSU/UMHB, and UWO's potential game against Wheaton/UWW. 

The Johnnie-Tommie rematch in the second round is also the toughest that any #1 seed will face.  It's tempting to say that Linfield drew a potentially tough second-rounder with Salisbury, but Mount's second-round opponent (Albright) beat Salisbury, so if you're giving Linfield that bonus point for playing a tough second-round game, Mount deserves one too.  I don't think either team is likely to struggle much with their respective opponents, although that's a dangerous assumption to make when you're playing Salisbury's option game (just because it can throw you if you don't play against anyone like that).

Given the choice of "which path looks the easiest to you?" I certainly expect that fans of the respective #1 seeds, given the choice of the four quadrants put together, would choose the Mount quadrant.