Pool C -- 2015

[Pat Coleman]

You also have to realize that there haven't been that many games where the rankings were very close. I would look for some "surprises" in the next round or two.

Again, if they are close it's a wash. Most large scale tournaments we see big upsets. 15vs2 in March Madness. Even 12 vs 5. We just don't get those. Even the FCS tournament has upsets. Last year Sam Houston State for example beating the 3 and 6 seeds.

DIII is incredibly tiered. The haves are playing a different game than most of the division. I don't have a problem with it since it is all done within the rules, but it's very rare to see large scale tournaments like what happens in DIII with so much imbalance and almost never a significant upset.

What was the last really significant upset anyone can remember? JHU over TMC in 2009? UMHB over UMU in 2004? Rowan over Wilkes 2006? Not really great options to choose from...

Eighth-seeded CNU over third-seeded Delaware Valley, 2014?

[jknezek]

You also have to realize that there haven't been that many games where the rankings were very close. I would look for some "surprises" in the next round or two.

Again, if they are close it's a wash. Most large scale tournaments we see big upsets. 15vs2 in March Madness. Even 12 vs 5. We just don't get those. Even the FCS tournament has upsets. Last year Sam Houston State for example beating the 3 and 6 seeds.

DIII is incredibly tiered. The haves are playing a different game than most of the division. I don't have a problem with it since it is all done within the rules, but it's very rare to see large scale tournaments like what happens in DIII with so much imbalance and almost never a significant upset.

What was the last really significant upset anyone can remember? JHU over TMC in 2009? UMHB over UMU in 2004? Rowan over Wilkes 2006? Not really great options to choose from...

Eighth-seeded CNU over third-seeded Delaware Valley, 2014?

That's a pretty good illustration of my point. A team that stumbled into the playoffs on the back of a 16 point week 11 loss that cost them a Pool A and then loses again. It really isn't that exciting in perspective, is it?

[AO]

You also have to realize that there haven't been that many games where the rankings were very close. I would look for some "surprises" in the next round or two.

Again, if they are close it's a wash. Most large scale tournaments we see big upsets. 15vs2 in March Madness. Even 12 vs 5. We just don't get those. Even the FCS tournament has upsets. Last year Sam Houston State for example beating the 3 and 6 seeds.

Sam Houston wasn't much of an underdog in either of those games.  FCS has a similar tiered system.  You'd see more blowouts if they went to a 32 team bracket.  Building an elite college football team has to be one of the harder things to do in sports.

[Pat Coleman]

It really isn't that exciting in perspective, is it?

I guess if you're only counting true surprising losses by really good teams you're likely to be pretty disappointed in general. I know a lot of people would still find that game exciting, and the Widener win vs. Muhlenberg in that bracket, and Wartburg's narrow escape vs. St. Thomas, and UMHB's win vs. TLU (strange as that game was), and MIT's OT win at Husson, and Hobart winning with 13 seconds left vs. Ithaca ...

[ExTartanPlayer]

You also have to realize that there haven't been that many games where the rankings were very close. I would look for some "surprises" in the next round or two.

Again, if they are close it's a wash. Most large scale tournaments we see big upsets. 15vs2 in March Madness. Even 12 vs 5. We just don't get those. Even the FCS tournament has upsets. Last year Sam Houston State for example beating the 3 and 6 seeds.

DIII is incredibly tiered. The haves are playing a different game than most of the division. I don't have a problem with it since it is all done within the rules, but it's very rare to see large scale tournaments like what happens in DIII with so much imbalance and almost never a significant upset.

What was the last really significant upset anyone can remember? JHU over TMC in 2009? UMHB over UMU in 2004? Rowan over Wilkes 2006? Not really great options to choose from...

Eighth-seeded CNU over third-seeded Delaware Valley, 2014?

That's a pretty good illustration of my point. A team that stumbled into the playoffs on the back of a 16 point week 11 loss that cost them a Pool A and then loses again. It really isn't that exciting in perspective, is it?

I happen to agree with you...I don't really mind, and I like the current system, but you're right that round-one is generally going to have few surprises.

I was really surprised by Wartburg's dusting of Illinois Wesleyan in the 2013 first round, but IWU (ranked 14th in the week 11 poll) wasn't really considered an elite team that was a threat to make the semifinals.  That's the equivalent of a 12-over-5 upset, maybe.

The last time I remember being REALLY surprised by a first-round playoff game was NC Wesleyan beating W & J in the 2007 first round.  W & J was 10-0, ranked 7th in the week 11 poll, had played UMHB to a 30-27 loss on the road in the second round the year before, and was the quadrant's #1 seed (according to my recollection, and verified by the column below).  NCWC was 8-2, and although the losses were 34-31 to 2006 semifinalist Wesley and 27-17 to eventual MAC champion Widener (so both losses did come against playoff teams), they were perceived as one of the field's weaker entries and were given the 8th seed.

(http://www.d3football.com/columns/around-the-nation/2007/playoff-picks-surprises-disappointments)

It's worth noting that although W&J was a #1 seed, nobody really had them as a bona fide Stagg Bowl contender.  The gurus all had UMHB beating Wesley or even Salisbury.  I still think you have to consider a #1 seed losing to a #8 seed a major upset, but if someone wants to take a hard line of "Has a team considered a threat to make the Stagg Bowl ever lost in the first round?" you probably wouldn't count this one.

[Pat Coleman]

If someone wants to take a hard line of "Has a team considered a threat to make the Stagg Bowl ever lost in the first round?" you probably wouldn't count this one.

And I don't think you ever will -- this isn't basketball. In the five-round playoff era, you shouldn't ever have a game like this, unless penny-pinching is involved.

[jknezek]

It really isn't that exciting in perspective, is it?

I guess if you're only counting true surprising losses by really good teams you're likely to be pretty disappointed in general. I know a lot of people would still find that game exciting, and the Widener win vs. Muhlenberg in that bracket, and Wartburg's narrow escape vs. St. Thomas, and UMHB's win vs. TLU (strange as that game was), and MIT's OT win at Husson, and Hobart winning with 13 seconds left vs. Ithaca ...

Exciting is different than an upset. And yes, generally the superior team wins. That's the point of being superior. But DIII football, especially, is simply prone to the superior team winning at a ridiculous rate compared to most other tournaments. There are generally let downs everywhere else.

As for Sam Houston State, they ended the 2014 season 7-4, ranked 23rd in the nation and they upset Jack St at 9-1, ranked 4th, and Villanova at 9-2, ranked 6th. You're definition of "wasn't much of an underdog" is different than mine. To make an analogy, that would be John Carroll beating St. Thomas and Wheaton when the playoffs started this year. Now if you want to account for the fact DIII is twice as big as FCS, that's like number 11 H-SU beating 2 Linfield or 3 UWO.

And yes, I hadn't remembered the 2007 NCW/W&J game. I'd say that takes the cake.

[AO]

It really isn't that exciting in perspective, is it?

I guess if you're only counting true surprising losses by really good teams you're likely to be pretty disappointed in general. I know a lot of people would still find that game exciting, and the Widener win vs. Muhlenberg in that bracket, and Wartburg's narrow escape vs. St. Thomas, and UMHB's win vs. TLU (strange as that game was), and MIT's OT win at Husson, and Hobart winning with 13 seconds left vs. Ithaca ...

Exciting is different than an upset. And yes, generally the superior team wins. That's the point of being superior. But DIII football, especially, is simply prone to the superior team winning at a ridiculous rate compared to most other tournaments. There are generally let downs everywhere else.

As for Sam Houston State, they ended the 2014 season 7-4, ranked 23rd in the nation and they upset Jack St at 9-1, ranked 4th, and Villanova at 9-2, ranked 6th. You're definition of "wasn't much of an underdog" is different than mine. To make an analogy, that would be John Carroll beating St. Thomas and Wheaton when the playoffs started this year. Now if you want to account for the fact DIII is twice as big as FCS, that's like number 11 H-SU beating 2 Linfield or 3 UWO.

And yes, I hadn't remembered the 2007 NCW/W&J game. I'd say that takes the cake.

The 2nd tier of the FCS is a little bigger than the 2nd tier of D3.  That Sam Houston team also still had multiple players on the team that had made back to back title games in '11 and '12.  That upset in March Madness terms was more like a 10-7 game than a 14-3.  The 14-3 upset seems more possible in FCS since there isn't as much of a disparity in athletic talent between the teams, but it just hasn't happened.

[gordonmann]

Eighth-seeded CNU over third-seeded Delaware Valley, 2014?

It's hard for me to be objective on that one since I've been Del Val's radio guy for almost 15 years. I have a very strong personal affinity for the coaches, the players, the program and the school. I've completely gone local so take that into account when reading the following.

That was a really nice win for CNU. Del Val was a different team -- and one that was up a couple scores -- before their QB pulled his hamstring late in the first half. When he was at full capacity, CNU had trouble stopping him. That said CNU gets credit for coming back to win it. They completely outplayed Del Val in the second half and came up with a lot of big plays down the stretch.

Even so, I didn't think that was a remarkable upset. Del Val wasn't a power team that anyone considered a national title threat. They would've been the underdogs the following week against Widener who was the underdog against Linfield who crushed them in yet another non-competitive game.

If that's the best example we have of a significant upset, that proves Jknezek's point. He really crystallizes the issue well here:

"DIII is incredibly tiered. The haves are playing a different game than most of the division. I don't have a problem with it since it is all done within the rules, but it's very rare to see large scale tournaments like what happens in DIII with so much imbalance and almost never a significant upset."

I don't view it as problematic that Division III football has such disparity among its tiers, nor is it problematic that teams who have really nice seasons and win their conferences eventually get smashed in the playoffs. Them's the breaks for everyone outside of Alliance, Whitewater and a few other towns in a national playoff.

But, like him, I'm looking for exciting, closely contested games -- those that are legitimately in question as to who will win in the final five minutes -- even if the superior teams always wins. And there hasn't been much of that this year for whatever reason.

[Pat Coleman]

Tale of two games from Saturday:
Team A leads Team B 29-23 with 11 minutes left and 36-23 with 5 minutes left. Turns out to be a blowout, 43-23.
Team C leads Team D 27-16 with 11 minutes left. Team D goes on to win in overtime.

Guess it's just a matter of when you choose to write off games. Just looking at a final score is a little oversimplified.

[smedindy]

I'd say weather and matchups probably play more of a factor in D3 playoffs than the D1 NCAA hoops tourney. If you're strength is the pass, and you're playing a team of ballhawks that also sack the QB, you may have some issues - especially in the snow!

[Ralph Turner]

Tale of two games from Saturday:
Team A leads Team B 29-23 with 11 minutes left and 36-23 with 5 minutes left. Turns out to be a blowout, 43-23.
Team C leads Team D 27-16 with 11 minutes left. Team D goes on to win in overtime.

Guess it's just a matter of when you choose to write off games. Just looking at a final score is a little oversimplified.

Knowing the teams in D-3 changes your perception and expectations too.

Wow!  Team B is not rolling over and dying!  Is this the character building experience for this school to bring on a dynasty.  Lots of quality ball players who are too small and too slow in thatm football-hungry state.  (And the high school senior who gets passed over by SEC colleges says, "Hey, maybe I can continue to play football in college and have my parents see the games"!)

Why can Team A put them away? This should not be this close!

C'mon Team C!  You cannot let them (Team D) hang around.  They are known for their tenacity.

Team D fans are recalling all of the storied football games in the school's illustrious history.  The ghosts of legends past are rooting them on! Team D ties, going to OT, and then thinks, "Good! We have Team C right where we want them!"

[wally_wabash]

Team D Always Fights, gentlemen.   

[emma17]

D A F

If more upsets are the desire, doesn't that support a change to Pool C selection criteria?

[smedindy]

No one said more upsets were the desire. Changing "C" won't help that anyway.