Pool C -- 2015

[gordonmann]

Outside of those two teams, the regions have been equally incapable of producing elite teams.

It's mostly semantics, but I was using "elite" as short hand for national championship contender. As a measure of that, when the guys do Triple Take, is there consensus that the opponent could beat Mount Union or Whitewater or that the game will at least be closely contested late into the fourth quarter? That's been the case at some point in recent years for Wesley, St. Thomas, Linfield and Mary Hardin-Baylor. UW-Oshkosh beat UW-Whitewater this year so you can add them to the list.

No offense to Ithaca, Widener, Hobart or other East teams who made the final eight in prior years, but I think Wesley recently and maybe St. John Fisher for a year or two are the only East teams that fit that description.  And in the South I think it's just Mary Hardin-Baylor.

[Ron Boerger]

Outside of those two teams, the regions have been equally incapable of producing elite teams.

[...] And in the South I think it's just Mary Hardin-Baylor.

but true.   Cue Babs:

[cubs]

In the 32-team playoff era, there have been 40 different semifinalist slots. Of those 40 spots, 35 of them have been filled by the seven teams: Mount, Whitewater, Linfield, MHB, Bethel, St. Thomas and Wesley. Three others were filled by teams (Wheaton, Rowan, Fisher) who did not play any of those teams until the semis.

This year, we're going to move our total to at least 37 of 44. It just doesn't change. And can we retire the stupid "It's up to those other teams to change things" mantra please? It's not that it isn't true, it's that it's irrelevant. This isn't Division I, where Mark Richt can get fired for, in a nutshell, not being as good as Nick Saban.

If, and I know that is a HUGE IF, UWO were able to beat Whitewater for a second time this season, it would mean that they will have advanced to the semifinals for the second time in four years.  That after not making a single NCAA appearance (I believe) in school history before 2012.

Wouldn't that be an example of "change?"

[gordonmann]

+K for Ron.

[gordonmann]

Wouldn't that be an example of "change?"

Yeah, I think so, especially if the Titans can maintain it for a couple years. Whitewater's last fall from the atop the WIAC in 2012 felt more like catching their breath before they started pumping out Stagg Bowl titles again.

I think the WIAC appears somewhat monolithic to people here on the east coast and in the East region. "There's Whitewater and then there's all those other WIAC schools who are pretty good but interchangeable -- UW-Stevens Point, UW-Platteville, UW-Sheboygan..."

I've had more exposure to the different WIAC schools through basketball so I know that's not a fair or accurate portrayal of those communities and UW-Oshkosh has to beat the Warhawks again as you noted. But I'd personally consider that a significant shift in the landscape, if only for a season.

[pg04]

I won't be happy unless both UWW and Mount lose this week. Well, one can dream can't he. 

[Bombers798891]

Outside of those two teams, the regions have been equally incapable of producing elite teams.

It's mostly semantics, but I was using "elite" as short hand for national championship contender. As a measure of that, when the guys do Triple Take, is there consensus that the opponent could beat Mount Union or Whitewater or that the game will at least be closely contested late into the fourth quarter? That's been the case at some point in recent years for Wesley, St. Thomas, Linfield and Mary Hardin-Baylor. UW-Oshkosh beat UW-Whitewater this year so you can add them to the list.

So in other words, Fisher doesn't meet this criteria in 2013 because instead of playing a closely contested game in the 4th quarter against the #3 team in the country, they did it against the #2 team? And while beating the #1 and #2 teams in the country would have given Kean elite status in 2011, beating #3 didn't?

This is exactly the kind of thing I've talked about elsewhere. I don't mind that the East is considered the weakest of the four regions; in fact I agree. What bugs me is when people say the East doesn't have any elite teams but Wesley and then set up a scenario for being elite that's incredibly specific and, oh so coincidentally, gets the teams we've already decided we want in the discussion and leaves out everyone we've already decided we don't.

The only world in which, in a division with more than 200 teams, a Top 10 team that beat a Top 3 team isn't considered elite is the one where admitting that would contradict preconceived notions.

[Bombers798891]

In the 32-team playoff era, there have been 40 different semifinalist slots. Of those 40 spots, 35 of them have been filled by the seven teams: Mount, Whitewater, Linfield, MHB, Bethel, St. Thomas and Wesley. Three others were filled by teams (Wheaton, Rowan, Fisher) who did not play any of those teams until the semis.

This year, we're going to move our total to at least 37 of 44. It just doesn't change. And can we retire the stupid "It's up to those other teams to change things" mantra please? It's not that it isn't true, it's that it's irrelevant. This isn't Division I, where Mark Richt can get fired for, in a nutshell, not being as good as Nick Saban.

If, and I know that is a HUGE IF, UWO were able to beat Whitewater for a second time this season, it would mean that they will have advanced to the semifinals for the second time in four years.  That after not making a single NCAA appearance (I believe) in school history before 2012.

Wouldn't that be an example of "change?"

I think I perhaps wasn't clear in my last post and an earlier one. When I'm talking about elite, I recognize the difference between an elite team and an elite program. When I'm arguing for Kean to be considered elite in 2011, I think it's because that specific team was elite, not that Kean was an elite program.

Top-heaviness at the top of D-III football isn't about elite teams as much as it is elite programs. I'm not 100% sure I can draw a line to when you cross over from elite team to elite program. St. Thomas has crossed it, IMO. Bethel has probably danced on it.

So I guess, to answer your question, I'd have to say I don't know because I don't follow them  closely. Is this indicative of a overall rise in UWO's program, or are these outlier teams whose success you feel isn't unsustainable going forward? If it's the former, then yes, it is a change. 

[wally_wabash]

This is exactly the kind of thing I've talked about elsewhere. I don't mind that the East is considered the weakest of the four regions; in fact I agree. What bugs me is when people say the East doesn't have any elite teams but Wesley and then set up a scenario for being elite that's incredibly specific and, oh so coincidentally, gets the teams we've already decided we want in the discussion and leaves out everyone we've already decided we don't.

100.

[Pat Coleman]

This is exactly the kind of thing I've talked about elsewhere. I don't mind that the East is considered the weakest of the four regions; in fact I agree. What bugs me is when people say the East doesn't have any elite teams but Wesley and then set up a scenario for being elite that's incredibly specific and, oh so coincidentally, gets the teams we've already decided we want in the discussion and leaves out everyone we've already decided we don't.

100.

As long as the definition of "Elite" includes more than two schools, then Wesley belongs.

[gordonmann]

So in other words, Fisher doesn't meet this criteria in 2013 because instead of playing a closely contested game in the 4th quarter against the #3 team in the country, they did it against the #2 team? And while beating the #1 and #2 teams in the country would have given Kean elite status in 2011, beating #3 didn't?

Honestly I had forgotten about that game because it wasn't against Mount Union or Whitewater. The Cards were pretty competitive in the game against Mary Hardin-Baylor, though let's not oversell it. They trailed by 12 at the end of one quarter, 23 midway through the second quarter and 15 with five minutes left in the game (my admittedly arbitrary definition of "late in the game"). 

Mary Hardin-Baylor was elite by my standards that year since they only lost by 1 to Whitewater. I guess we could consider St. John Fisher borderline elite. Say very, very good?

When I'm arguing for Kean to be considered elite in 2011, I think it's because that specific team was elite, not that Kean was an elite program.

I like that distinction between programs and teams. In the case of that specific team, Kean beat an elite team (Wesley) and lost to a really good Salisbury team (which then lost by 20 to Whitewater). But they also lost to 3-7 Brockport State (Pg04 winces). Can you envision any of the elite teams we agree upon losing to a 3-7 team?  Probably not.

At some point the transitive property of being elite -- A beat B who beat C who beat D -- breaks down. Otherwise William Paterson was also elite in 2011 because they beat Brockport who beat Kean who beat Wesley.

For what it's worth, I think the East is better than the South in terms of depth at the top. The Linfield fans said Cortland is the best team they've seen this year and we know Cortland wasn't head-and-shoulders better than other teams in the Empire 8. Plus the NJAC is a deep conference and even the weaker conferences are producing more competitive champions, like Framingham State.

I'm sure someone else could argue the opposite for the south teams but that's my take.

[HScoach]

Outside of Wesley now, the last elite Eastern program was Rowan back in the Shade Keeler days.  Some very good individual teams, but no programs.

[Bombers798891]

Honestly I had forgotten about that game because it wasn't against Mount Union or Whitewater. The Cards were pretty competitive in the game against Mary Hardin-Baylor, though let's not oversell it. They trailed by 12 at the end of one quarter, 23 midway through the second quarter and 15 with five minutes left in the game (my admittedly arbitrary definition of "late in the game"). 

Mary Hardin-Baylor was elite by my standards that year since they only lost by 1 to Whitewater. I guess we could consider St. John Fisher borderline elite. Say very, very good?

When I'm arguing for Kean to be considered elite in 2011, I think it's because that specific team was elite, not that Kean was an elite program.

I like that distinction between programs and teams. In the case of that specific team, Kean beat an elite team (Wesley) and lost to a really good Salisbury team (which then lost by 20 to Whitewater). But they also lost to 3-7 Brockport State (Pg04 winces). Can you envision any of the elite teams we agree upon losing to a 3-7 team?  Probably not.

At some point the transitive property of being elite -- A beat B who beat C who beat D -- breaks down. Otherwise William Paterson was also elite in 2011 because they beat Brockport who beat Kean who beat Wesley.

1. Regarding the transitive property and Kean being elite, you're right, but the fact that they finished 10th in the country strengthens the argument they are elite. We have both a long-term subjective measure (the rankings, which factor in 15 weeks of games) AND a short-term objective one (the win itself) that both provide evidence to back up the hypothesis that that Kean team was elite.

2. Regarding the oversell of the Fisher/MHB game, the fact that they fell behind early is irrelevant to it being a close game. Mount led Wesley 31-0 in the first quarter of a game that they were probably and onside kick recovery away from losing. It was 31-23 with less than 8 minutes to go. Hardin-Baylor had the ball, yes, but they were at their own four. I'd rather be MHB than Fisher here, but if a Fisher guy had said then "Fisher could win this game" I wouldn't have laughed at them. It's always subjective when you take a snapshot at one time, but I think any time it's a one-score game in the 4th quarter, and thus you're one good play away from a tie, it hits the definition. But YMMV.

3. "Can you envision any of the elite teams we agree upon losing to a 3-7 team?  Probably not."

3-7? No. But Linfield lost to 5-4 Williamette last year. Didn't stop them from beating MHB. 3-7 is worse than 5-4, but they both essentially constituted major upsets.

[pg04]

3-7 Brockport State (Pg04 winces).

Ha! +k  The wince is because there have been more seasons like that than truly good ones since 2003. I like to brag that I was the ultimate good luck charm as their only 4 playoff appearances occurred when I went to school there. 

[Ralph Turner]

Willamette vs Linfield may be second only to Ducks vs Beavers in the state of Oregon.

UMHB 45 SJF 23 still qualifies as a monkey-stomp.