2015 POOL C

[backyarddawg]

No F&M?

OK, Mr.Right, here ya go....


1)   Amherst
2)   Montclair St

3)   Haverford/Dickinson
4)   Trinity (TX)/Colorado Coll

5)    Wheaton (Ill)
6)   Macalester
7)   Rowan
8)   Elizabethtown
9)   OWU
10)   CMU
11)   Wash U
12)   Plattsburgh
13)   Brockport
14)   Middlebury

15 thru 18) – Pick 3-4 based on MIT outcome today and presumes UW-W Pool B – Stockton, Bowdoin if loses, Tufts, DePauw, Thomas More, Chicago, RPI

Others – Pacific Lutheran, Messiah, UW-Oshkosh, St Johns, North Park, W&L if loses, Christopher Newport,  Johns Hopkins, Rutgers-Newark, Texas-Dallas/Texas-Tyler loser, Concordia (WIS)/Dominican, Case Western, Kean, Conn College, Luther, King's, Greensboro, Hobart, Endicott, La Verne, Union, Randolph if loses, ECSU, Denison, Cortland, TCNJ, Mary Washington, Oglethorpe, Skidmore

UW-W – Pool B

[PaulNewman]

Thanks 'dawg...I'll fix that.

[PaulNewman]

I was thinking as I was doing this that the prospects are not as bad as some were/are fearing, but of course that depends on where your own team lands, and just having to add one or two teams can really put the squeeze on.  Partly I think some of the AQs were taken by bubble teams so that relieves the bubble in a way.  I'm guessing that the New England and Great Lakes cmtes in particular will struggle with how to order their rankings but the same teams may get in regardless of the order.  MIT needing a Pool C obviously will be big, and I suppose one could wonder if Colorado College moves to the bubble if they lose.  Same with Dickinson although hard to imagine that Dickinson isn't pretty safe at this point especially after back-to-back wins over F&M.  Honestly, the way some other bubble and just off bubble teams have fallen I wouldn't be shocked if Messiah is realistically more on the bubble but they'd have to get the Falcons above Hopkins so not sure how unlikely that might be.  I also cannot imagine RPI and/or North Park really getting a bid given their in-conference placements but the way things have fallen I think LGOTB is correct to at least have RPI seriously in the discussion.

[PaulNewman]

Corrected version....


1)   Amherst
2)   Montclair St

3)   Haverford/Dickinson
4)   Trinity (TX)/Colorado Coll

5)     Franklin & Marshall

6)    Wheaton (Ill)
7)   Macalester
8)   Rowan
9)   Elizabethtown
10)   OWU
11)   CMU
12)   Wash U
13)   Plattsburgh
14)   Brockport

15 thru 18) – Pick 3-4 based on MIT outcome today and presumes UW-W Pool B – Middlebury, Stockton, Bowdoin if loses, Tufts, DePauw, Thomas More, Chicago, RPI

Others – Pacific Lutheran, Messiah, UW-Oshkosh, St Johns, North Park, W&L if loses, Christopher Newport,  Johns Hopkins, Rutgers-Newark, Texas-Dallas/Texas-Tyler loser, Concordia (WIS)/Dominican, Case Western, Kean, Conn College, Luther, King’s, Greensboro, Hobart, Endicott, La Verne, Union, Randolph if loses, ECSU, Denison, Cortland, TCNJ, Mary Washington, Oglethorpe, Skidmore

UW-W – Pool B

[lastguyoffthebench]

NE:  Amherst, Tufts, Middlebury, (MIT if lose)
East: Plattsburgh St, Brockport St, RPI
Mid-Atlantic:  Haverford/Dickinson, F&M, E-town
South-Atlantic:  MSU, Rowan
Central:  Washington, Wheaton
Great Lakes: CMU, OWU
North: Macalester
West: Trinity/Colorado


Last team in: Stockton or TMC last team in if MIT wins AQ  I'd like to see hard luck CWRU in it, but I doubt they jump that high in secret rankings.

I think Camden would have been #2 in South Atlantic and in over Rowan had they fallen in PKs.   They are 5-3-2 RvR.  I'm sure they are hoping to be shipped to NE region, but I think they will be in a pod with Dickinson Cabrini Lycoming Eastern in opening round


Byes:  Kenyon, Calvin, Brandeis

[lastguyoffthebench]

Which two loss team has better chance, E-town or TMC.    SOS, RvR, win % all incredibly close.. It's also likely they are both #5 in their respective regions.

[PaulNewman]

Which two loss team has better chance, E-town or TMC.    SOS, RvR, win % all incredibly close.. It's also likely they are both #5 in their respective regions.

Then compare them to Endicott which might have gotten modest SoS boost.  Basically same record and 3-2-1 RvR.  Endicott could also end up ahead of Conn Coll and ECSU in rankings and with some of the others taking AQs could be last team out in NE.

E'town has 2 wins to TMC's 1 win.  Case not being ranked really hurts TMC.

[Ryan Harmanis]

I would guess Etown just because of the process.  Etown will probably be third in the pecking order for the Mid-Atlantic, behind the Haverford/Dickinson loser and F&M.  I think there's a good chance TMC is fourth in the Great Lakes (fifth overall).  TMC was already behind Carnegie and DePauw, and all three teams lost.  Carnegie and DePauw lost on the road to much better teams than TMC, who was at home.  They also both have more ranked wins, higher SOS, etc.  So I'm not sure if TMC can jump either of them.

If that ends up being the case, then TMC would need Carnegie, OWU, and DePauw to get in before they're up for consideration.  Whereas Etown only needs F&M and Haverford/Dickinson - much easier to picture.

[PaulNewman]

NE:  Amherst, Tufts, Middlebury, (MIT if lose)
East: Plattsburgh St, Brockport St, RPI
Mid-Atlantic:  Haverford/Dickinson, F&M, E-town
South-Atlantic:  MSU, Rowan
Central:  Washington, Wheaton
Great Lakes: CMU, OWU
North: Macalester
West: Trinity/Colorado


Last team in: Stockton or TMC last team in if MIT wins AQ  I'd like to see hard luck CWRU in it, but I doubt they jump that high in secret rankings.

I think Camden would have been #2 in South Atlantic and in over Rowan had they fallen in PKs.   They are 5-3-2 RvR.  I'm sure they are hoping to be shipped to NE region, but I think they will be in a pod with Dickinson Cabrini Lycoming Eastern in opening round


Byes:  Kenyon, Calvin, Brandeis

DePauw 11-3-4 with .580+ SoS and 3-3-2 RvR.  CMU 11-3-3 with .580+ and 3-2 RvR.

UW-Osh in the just out category may have best resume in that category wwith 11-3-3, .565, and 2-3-2.

[lastguyoffthebench]

Given the depth of the NE region you'd think there would be 4 teams... You'd assume a 4th team makes it.

Final answer is Chicago last team in.   Incredibly high SOS, 4-5 RvR, only 5 losses.   If they don't get in, we can safely say a 7 loss Camden team with a 5-3-2 RvR and similar SOS would have not made it. My guess is Chicago Atleast bumps North Park... Possibly AQ MSOE too

[backyarddawg]

Are they really going to put two mid-west teams with byes?  I think with location that could be hard.

NE:  Amherst, Tufts, Middlebury, (MIT if lose)
East: Plattsburgh St, Brockport St, RPI
Mid-Atlantic:  Haverford/Dickinson, F&M, E-town
South-Atlantic:  MSU, Rowan
Central:  Washington, Wheaton
Great Lakes: CMU, OWU
North: Macalester
West: Trinity/Colorado


Last team in: Stockton or TMC last team in if MIT wins AQ  I'd like to see hard luck CWRU in it, but I doubt they jump that high in secret rankings.

I think Camden would have been #2 in South Atlantic and in over Rowan had they fallen in PKs.   They are 5-3-2 RvR.  I'm sure they are hoping to be shipped to NE region, but I think they will be in a pod with Dickinson Cabrini Lycoming Eastern in opening round


Byes:  Kenyon, Calvin, Brandeis

[lastguyoffthebench]

Crazier things have happened.   I did say Oneonta St would host until the final 4, they are definitely in the mix for a bye

I don't see Amherst or MSU because of not winning conference..

[lastguyoffthebench]

Could Haverford potentially get a bye if they win the Centennial?

[Mr.Right]

Middlebury is def in. They are not on the bubble. Also, after comparing some of these bubble teams I am convinced Tufts still gets in. The New England region will get 4-5

[PaulNewman]

Middlebury is def in. They are not on the bubble. Also, after comparing some of these bubble teams I am convinced Tufts still gets in. The New England region will get 4-5

Yeah, I had Midd in and off the bubble but I had forgotten F&M so moved Midd to top of bubble list.  Could have moved Plattsburgh or Brockport probably instead.