2015 POOL C

[Shooter McGavin]

Better chance is RPI out and Tufts in....

Yes^^^

[Shooter McGavin]

RPI is 40th overall is Massey Ratings, 36th in Hero Sports

Yeah that's not a good thing...you want to be top 25 if you're a bubble team and even then some are still sweating big time. Messiah is 13-4-1 and top 25 in both Massey and Bennett(Hero) rankings and people say the need to win the Commonwealth or they don't get in but you want to put RPI in becausde they are top 40 in both? Not a good justification. If you compare them with the criteria used like SOS, RvR and record/winning% then we can see how they stack up...

[lastguyoffthebench]

Agree or disagree but:

2 at large bids
NESCAC
UAA
NJAC
Centennial
SUNYAC

1 at large bid
NCAC
LL
IIAC
WIAC
CCIW
Upset of high team
Upset of high team
Upset of high team

That's 18 right there...

[lastguyoffthebench]

RPI vs Messiah... I'd choose RPI

Again, RPI beat Oneonta St, won at Stockton, beat Skidmore. Tied at Babson, tied at Hobart.  Lost at SLU and vs Williams.
.574 SOS.  2-1-1 RvR.  4th in ranking but will drop

Messiah lost to overachieving Lycoming, E-Town, CMU, and 4th place NJAC Rowan handedly... No strong wins
.593 SOS.  0-3-0 RvR.  7th in Ranking but had a run of games vs Stevenson, Alvernia, LVC which won't help really.   Leaning AQ or bust for the Falcons

[Shooter McGavin]

Because they took care of business with a strong out of conference schedule.  On top of that LL is not a weak conference...

No doubt in my mind RPI is in, especially if SLU wins the AQ.   They will sweat selection day if SLU doesn't win AQ, because it's likely not a 3 bid league

They are 2-1-0 RvR...didn't play that strong of a non-conference compared to most...11-4-3...SOS will drop slightly from .574 but not much...and I cannot stress enough how disappointed I am that the committee doesn't consider how you are playing right now...I know it's a "last criteria" but it should be more important than that. It gets proven over time and time again...Dickinson last year didn't win in their last 4 games of the season...so what, you expect them to make a run in the tournament??? NO they lose in the first round!!!! Wonder who could have predicted that. Salisbury was 1-1-2 in their last 4 last year headed into NCAA's...gets thrashed 4-0 in the first round. Brockport was 3-2-2 in last 7...not bad but not good form and they lose in the first round. Coast Guard was winless in last 4 games  entering the NCAA tournament and they proceeded to lose in the first round........just like all the other teams who were in bad form upon entering the tournament. Is it me or is this not obvious? People were questioning Rochester's bid last year...they finished the season 4-2-1 in their last 7 which included a tough UAA schedule and ended up cruising in their first round game then losing a heart breaker, that could have gone either way, in PKs to F&M.

But then you have teams like John Carroll who went 17-4 last year(far better than the other teams mentioned) and finished 14-1 in their last 15 games and loses a heart breaker in conference finals and doesn't get in....a team in GREAT form or Lycoming who went 15-3-3(far better than the others that made it) who finished 6-1 in their last 7 with the loss being to Messiah and they beat Rochester earlier in the year who made it...how does that happen? And they were an NCAA tournament team the year before who won their first round game before losing to national runner-ups Camden...

I know it's a numbers game and some of those other teams for sure had better "numbers", but I firmly believe (and this being my point in this whole ramble) that how you are performing at the end of the season right now SHOULD matter to the selection committee. I would put a lot of money down that Lycoming or John Carroll wouldn't have gotten thrashed in the first round like Salisbury did(I know Lycoming wouldn't have because they already beat that team that killed Salisbury) or would have won one of the other first round games that Coast Guard or Brockport or Dickinson lost....

How teams are playing at the end of the season matters to the D1 NCAA Selection Committee for basketball...why not soccer too?

[Shooter McGavin]

RPI vs Messiah... I'd choose RPI

Again, RPI beat Oneonta St, won at Stockton, beat Skidmore. Tied at Babson, tied at Hobart.  Lost at SLU and vs Williams.
.574 SOS.  2-1-1 RvR.  4th in ranking but will drop

Messiah lost to overachieving Lycoming, E-Town, CMU, and 4th place NJAC Rowan handedly... No strong wins
.593 SOS.  0-3-0 RvR.  7th in Ranking but had a run of games vs Stevenson, Alvernia, LVC which won't help really.   Leaning AQ or bust for the Falcons

I agree that it is AQ or bust for the Falcons...but Messiah also made playoffs in their league. Lycoming, Etown and Rowan are all very good teams...CMU is clicking now (even though I still think they are overrated). Those aren't bad losses. And you listed some unranked teams for RPI that they beat...you can do the same for Messiah.

I don't think either of these teams make the cut. But they are very close and have similar stats is my point and nobody thinks Messiah can get an at-large but we think RPI can? To me they are equal to Messiah or less(bc they fnished 7th in conference play). Neither will make the dance unless they win AQ which obviously wont happen for RPI   

[Shooter McGavin]

This is a good debate I like both sides btw so thanks to whoever gave me the -K...you're a real winner

[Shooter McGavin]

So you take RPI over Messiah...okay now compare them to a team like Tufts......I take Tufts and sensing that they will be one of the last ones to come off the board I do not think RPI has a chance...like FW said it's not in the criteria, but can you imagine if a team that finished 7/9 and didn't make conference playoffs got in over some of the teams that are going to get snubbed? The committee would get buried alive.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Emory is another one that comes to mind from last year. Believe they finished 2-3-1 in their last 6 and ended up losing in the first round. You have some valid points Shooter and I don't think many people would completely disagree with that logic. Maybe Ryan Harmanis can provide his thoughts on that topic and why or why not the committee doesn't utilize the way teams are playing at the tail end of the season during the selection process.

Also Dickinson lost to Tufts in the first round so a harsh draw, but I do agree that they should not have gotten in last year either. 

[lastguyoffthebench]

Dickinson earned wiggle room last year for their strong wins.

I only give + karma so it wasn't me...

Yes, I would take Tufts over RPI 9x out of 10 for a bid

[Wisco21]

Shooter, I didn't give you the -K because I don't know to give karma.

I stand by my thoughts of Tufts making the tourney. If they don't, I'll send you a sixer of Spotted Cow 

[Brother Flounder]

Shooter, I didn't give you the -K because I don't know to give karma.

I stand by my thoughts of Tufts making the tourney. If they don't, I'll send you a sixer of Spotted Cow 

Wasn't me but it did cross my mind for a split second...

[PaulNewman]

Shooter, I mostly with you on this one as well, but LGOTB is a savvy soccer person and poster so you can't dismiss his reasoning out of hand and FW chimed in with a question I had.....whether their conference standing mattered.  He said NO, but then he also said he can't recall when a team that did not make its own conference playoffs got a bid.  I was going to ask that question too.  Another one is when was the last time, before Tufts last year, that a NESCAC team lost in the quarters and got a bid?  And when was the last time TWO NESCACs lost in the quarters in the tourney and BOTH got bids?  This is a crazy year with lots of weird situations and scenarios.  AND, we thought about this in the positive direction, but could a cmte ask for permission to consider a team's downward trend in making a decision?  RPI had a fantastic first half of the year followed by a dreadful second half.  And comparisons to Messiah don't make sense to me.  Messiah IS in their conference tourney and likely to win it. 

[PaulNewman]

Agree or disagree but:

2 at large bids
NESCAC
UAA
NJAC
Centennial
SUNYAC

1 at large bid
NCAC
LL
IIAC
WIAC
CCIW
Upset of high team
Upset of high team
Upset of high team

That's 18 right there...

LGOTB, I would have predicted the NCAC as a 3 bid league but I think CMU has messed that up or at least really complicated things.  I also have a sneaking suspicion that TMC is NOT going to win their AQ.  That is HUGE.

[blooter442]

And when was the last time TWO NESCACs lost in the tourney and BOTH got bids?

2012, but I think that had to do with the fact that those two teams - Tufts and Wesleyan - both played the NESCAC finalists (who were both in the top 10 if I remember correctly) to close games in the conference tourney. Wesleyan lost to the undefeated Amherst side 1-0 in the semis, while Tufts took Williams to PKs before losing. And I think Williams was undefeated then, too, so that might have explained it.