2015 POOL C

[Ryan Harmanis]

TMC's SoS should stay about the same given Westminster's record.  When compared to at-large profiles in the last two years, TMC would be right at the bottom of the SoS metric - either lowest or in the bottom two.  And only having one ranked win hurts if they're up against someone like Tufts.  So I think TMC is firmly on the bubble.

[PaulNewman]

Bottom line is that TMC shouldn't have lost.  Not sure why I thought they would lose but just had a strong feeling.  Maybe a little arrogant and maybe a lot too focused on being chippy (as Domino suggested).  Just cannot lose to Westminster (PA) at home.  The selection system is harsh.  They lose a ranked win with hard-luck CWRU dropping out, and Kenyon and OWU gain with Oberlin slipping in (which seems a little questionable in all honesty and I've been hyping Oberlin).  Very hard to accept that a RPI could be more deserving than TMC, or even a Tufts or Dickinson for that matter.  They can't do anything about their conference and they did play an aggressive out-of-conf schedule too.

[Mr.Right]

ECSU loses 1-0 today. They are done. No shot at a Pool C now after all the early season hype.

A shame, too, because they did have some big wins against some good teams, and their 14-4-1 record is good especially in this year. SOS and RvR killed them, and what I think many people - myself included - who often slate teams for "weak" schedules forget is that, unless you're in a really strong conference, most of the games on your schedule are going to be against weaker teams by default because you have to play your conference opponents. I think ECSU went out and scheduled about as difficult of a schedule as they could, and even picked up some big Ws, but unfortunately it didn't work out for them.

In total agreement with this. They just came down to earth at the wrong time(end of year before NCAA's)

[Wisco21]

Add Wheaton (Ill.) to the list gents

[PaulNewman]

NCAC Pool Cs

Amherst
Tufts/Midd/Bowdoin
MIT?

Brockport/Oneonta
RPI/Plattsburgh

Haverford/F&M
Lycoming
Dickinson/E'town

Rowan
MSU/RUC

Kenyon/OWU
CMU
DePauw
TMC

Wash U
Wheaton (Ill)

Macalester
UW-W

Colorado Coll/Trinity (TX)

That's 19 spots, inclusive of UW-W (who could go Pool B?)

And wild cards still out there....MIT (if win add spot), SLU, Stockton? (a 3rd NJAC Pool C?), Calvin (would North Park really be picked over Calvin???), E'town, Loras, Redlands?, MSOE?  A 3rd NESCAC Pool C?

Obviously other scenarios, like adding spot if Lycoming wins, etc, but sort of my guess today of how could play out.

[lastguyoffthebench]

Strikingly similar to mine, but I'll have my 3.0 updates upon the conclusion of Sunday's results.

Wheaton's loss certainly puts North Park outside the bubble, if they were even in it before.

Those on the bubble are praying MSOE, Lycoming, Loras, Trinity, MIT, E-town all take care of business.

I cannot see E-town or Trinity losing.

[lastguyoffthebench]

UW-W should be getting the Pool B, dropping UW-O into the mix (but the eyeball test has the Titans on the bubble, IMO).

[lastguyoffthebench]

POOL C LOCKS  (6 teams)
Amherst
Washington U
Wheaton (Ill)
Macalester
FM/Haverford loser
Carnegie Mellon

POOL C Should Be Safe (6-7 teams)
Tufts
Kenyon (if lose AQ)
Middlebury (if reach NESCAC final)
Brockport St
Lycoming (if lose AQ)
Rutgers-Camden (if lose AQ)
Plattsburgh St

POOL C Bubble (4-5 teams) No particular order
RPI
Thomas More
Rowan
Dickinson
(OWU if lose AQ)
----------------------
TBA (upset high seed)
TBA (upset high seed)

Outside bubble/likely done
DePauw
Stockton
Chicago (win over Wash U could see them bump up)
Denison
Pacific Lutheran
North Park
UW-W
ECSU
Cortland St
CNU
Loser of Kings/Eastern

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

I like the list except for Camden being in the "should be safe" section. I think they would fall under the "bubble" section.

[Mr.Right]

Also,

I do not see 1 West team on the bubble. That is a region that will get one because of geography and deservedly so. You cannot fault them for low RvR and even SOS usually you are playing each other twice or playing non D3 or playing really bad teams.

[lastguyoffthebench]

It was cheeky for me to slot Camden there, but partial bias towards the NJAC and South Atlantic.  I am forced to believe that Camden, most likely #2 in SA secret rankings "should be safe".   Rochester had 8 blemishes last year (5L - 3D) and made it with a high SOS and a 3-2-1 RvR, as the #4 ranked team in the East.  (This also fits the bill for RPI 2015).

By leaving a blemished Camden out, you're taking a South Atlantic team like Rowan or Stockton over them, and I just can't see it (but could be wrong here as last year Rutgers-Newark got in even with being 0-2 vs Camden last year).  As previously mentioned, Rutgers-Camden did not crack the regional rankings last year though.

Starting to think Wheaton may not be a lock, and slip down to the Should be safe pod as well... 

[lastguyoffthebench]

Also,

I do not see 1 West team on the bubble. That is a region that will get one because of geography and deservedly so. You cannot fault them for low RvR and even SOS usually you are playing each other twice or playing non D3 or playing really bad teams.

Pacific Lutheran, Mr.Right   You could throw in Colorado as well in place of Pacific Lutheran... 

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Is Macalester a lock? I know only 1 loss and all but I don't know much about them asides from that...any info on them?

I imagine they are from the eyeball test. Solid SOS and RvR and good record. Would be in in my books but just curious of how good they actually are that's all.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

It was cheeky for me to slot Camden there, but partial bias towards the NJAC and South Atlantic.  I am forced to believe that Camden, most likely #2 in SA secret rankings "should be safe".   Rochester had 8 blemishes last year (5L - 3D) and made it with a high SOS and a 3-2-1 RvR, as the #4 ranked team in the East.  (This also fits the bill for RPI 2015).

By leaving a blemished Camden out, you're taking a South Atlantic team like Rowan or Stockton over them, and I just can't see it (but could be wrong here as last year Rutgers-Newark got in even with being 0-2 vs Camden last year).  As previously mentioned, Rutgers-Camden did not crack the regional rankings last year though.

Starting to think Wheaton may not be a lock, and slip down to the Should be safe pod as well...

Not trying to beat a dead horse...but Rochester only had 5 losses...not the same as 8 losses. 5 is my cut-off and even then its up in the air. I would take Tufts over Camden.

[D3 Scout]

Macalester is not a lock. They have only played one game outside of Minnesota all year and if Loras loses to Dubuque they would be the 6th team from the North region. All of their regionally ranked games were at home and their .561 SOS is good but not great. If Loras wins then Macalester is in. If they lose they are out in my opinion.