2015 POOL C

[TennesseeJed]

Byes:  Kenyon, Calvin, Brandeis

100% of Byes last year went to #1 ranked (in 3rd ranking) teams in their respective regions.  Kenyon wasn't #1 in the GL region.  I'd be surprised if they get it, even with their win% and RvR, I think their SoS might be too low this year for a bye, given how it impacted their regional ranking.

Brandeis, Oneonta, Loras and Haverford make the most sense to me, if they all come from top ranked teams.  All won respective conference AQ and all top ranked team in their respective region.

[Christan Shirk]

FWIW, we have Part II of our Men's at-large berth analysis and predictions column up on D3soccer.com that includes the color-coded regional rankings table with updated records/win pct., strength of schedules (approximated), and records versus ranked teams.

If you find any errors, please let me know.  We have tried to be 100% accurate, but it is a lot of data to deal with.

We hope and currently expect to have our predictions posted yet tonight.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

FWIW, we have Part II of our Men's at-large berth analysis and predictions column up on D3soccer.com that includes the color-coded regional rankings table with updated records/win pct., strength of schedules (approximated), and records versus ranked teams.

If you find any errors, please let me know.  We have tried to be 100% accurate, but it is a lot of data to deal with.

We hope and currently expect to have our predictions posted yet tonight.

Lycoming beat Widener 2-0 not 4-0 in the semifinals which is under the games played in past week section...obviously won't affect anything but just wanted to let you know! Great job it looks good and is helpful for all of us. We appreciate your hard work!

[lastguyoffthebench]

Final Prediction:
NE:  Amherst, Middlebury, Tufts, MIT
East:  Plattsburgh St, RPI, Brockport St
Mid-Atlantic:  Dickinson, F&M
South Atlantic:  MSU, Rowan
North:  Macalester
Central:  Washington, Wheaton
Great Lakes:  CMU, OWU, DePauw
West: Colorado

Last 3 in:  RPI, DePauw, Colorado,
First 4 out:  Stockton, e-town, TMC, Chicago


Tough call between Stockton and DePauw.   Does e-town SOS keep them out?


Byes:  Brandeis, Oneonta St, Calvin

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Here are my quick glance picks for the Pool C's berths:

NE Region:
Amherst
MIT
Middlebury
Tufts
Endicott

East Region:
Plattsburgh St.
Brockport St.

Mid-Atlantic Region:
F&M
Etown
Dickinson
Messiah

South Atlantic:
Montclair St.
Rowan
Stockton

Great Lakes:
Carnegie Mellon
DePauw
Thomas More
Ohio Wesleyan

Central Region:
Wash. U
Wheaton(Ill)
Chicago

North Region:
Macalester

West Region:
Colorado College

Pool B:
UWW

23 teams battling for 18 spots. And some other teams may deserve to be in consideration but this is what I have narrowed it down to. The 5 teams with lines through them are the 5 missing out on the dance in my opinion. I think Tufts is the first team out and misses out on the tournament. Losing in their conference tournament crushed their chances along with their poor winning percentage. TMC and Etown survive and sneak in...barely. RPI not even considered for me and Stockton gets bumped as the second team out and Chicago gets bumped as the 3rd team out. Those 3 wish it was a 64 team field. SOS will kill the west region and winning percentage dooms the central and north regions. Plattsburgh State is my bubble team to watch that may end up getting snubbed and shock some people. John Carroll'd? Great SOS and winning percentage but 7 blemishes and 1-3-1 RvR hurts them. I think they are safe but something to keep an eye on. Any thoughts?

[lastguyoffthebench]

Plattsburgh St is in.   7 blemishes, but .738 win percentage and your classic tourney SOS

TMC is getting John Carroll'd

[RetiredD3Fan]

FWIW, we have Part II of our Men's at-large berth analysis and predictions column up on D3soccer.com that includes the color-coded regional rankings table with updated records/win pct., strength of schedules (approximated), and records versus ranked teams.

If you find any errors, please let me know.  We have tried to be 100% accurate, but it is a lot of data to deal with.

We hope and currently expect to have our predictions posted yet tonight.

Looks like you are missing JHU's 5-0 win over Swat on 11/4 in the Mid-Atlantic grid.

[lastguyoffthebench]

RetiredD3fan...  Is that you, BlueJayFan?

Thought maybe so with the JHU reference

[RetiredD3Fan]

Yeah, I still check in every once in a while, but I have not attended a game in a long time.  I have been pondering posting my controversial "2-losses-to-one-team" philosophy.  You know, where a team (such as JHU vs. Haverford, Messiah vs. Lycoming) with two losses to the same team (assuming that team is going to the tournament) does not deserve to be selected for a Pool C bid.  My feeling is they have already proven they can't beat that team, and that team should not have to beat them a third time.  I know that ignores the eldritch calculations the selection committee uses to pick whomever they intended to pick from the outset, but hey what do I know?  If such a team is picked they should be shipped out of region to avoid meeting their tormentors a third time for as long as possible.

But after pondering that, I decided I shouldn't post it.

Oops.

[PaulNewman]

I think Tufts is going to get in but their problem is on what basis could the cmte move them ahead of MIT and Midd.  There is none, so maybe Tufts should have been ahead of one of them in last week's ranking but they weren't and sitting idle gave them no chance to add some positive data to provide justification for a move up.  It gets complicated when you look at other teams too.  There is a clear basis to bump OWU over DePauw based on a second head to head win this week since the last ranking.  The conundrum there since everyone seems to have TMC out now is that there really isn't a clear basis to move OWU ahead of TMC....they could say SoS as OWU got another nice bump this week but if SoS was the issue for TMC then they shouldn't have jumped OWU last week.  I'm sure there are other similar examples like how to differentiate Plattsburgh and Brockport.

[PaulNewman]

NCAC's Final, Final, Final Version (in reverse order of regions)

West:  Colorado College, Pac Lutheran

North:  Macalester, UW-Oshkosh, St Johns

Central:  Wheaton (Ill), Wash U, Chicago

Great Lakes:  OWU, Thomas More???, DePauw, CMU (DePauw and CMU in dead heat and they maybe drop TMC because can't pick between DPU and CMU)

South Atlantic:  MSU, Rowan, Stockton

Mid-Atlantic:  Dickinson, F&M, E'town

East:  Brockport, Plattsburgh

NE:  Amherst, Midd, MIT, Tufts (or is possible MIT gets John Carroll'ed?)

These reflect my final regional rankings [for Pool Cs]....last spots come down to MIT, Tufts, DePauw/CMU (while knowing TMC may get ditched), Stockton, UW-Osh, Chicago


Pool B -  UW-W

I wouldn't be shocked if Plattsburgh misses out.

[PaulNewman]

Just as CMU and DePauw look virtually identical on paper (with maybe edge to DPU for beating Loras and Kenyon), the same is true for MIT, E'town and TMC....extremely similar resumes for those three.

Feels like we're waiting for the brackets to come out right now, lol.

If Chicago and Stockton are in that means some real pain elsewhere.

[Flying Weasel]

Yeah, I still check in every once in a while, but I have not attended a game in a long time.  I have been pondering posting my controversial "2-losses-to-one-team" philosophy.  You know, where a team (such as JHU vs. Haverford, Messiah vs. Lycoming) with two losses to the same team (assuming that team is going to the tournament) does not deserve to be selected for a Pool C bid.  My feeling is they have already proven they can't beat that team, and that team should not have to beat them a third time.  I know that ignores the eldritch calculations the selection committee uses to pick whomever they intended to pick from the outset, but hey what do I know?  If such a team is picked they should be shipped out of region to avoid meeting their tormentors a third time for as long as possible.

But after pondering that, I decided I shouldn't post it.

Oops.

Wow!  BlueJayFan!  How have you been?  Every new soccer season I wonder what's up with you.  And I still feel very nostalgic about the old message board.  Glad to have you pop in here.

[Mr.Right]

Tufts will get in. Compared to the Last 4 IN and First 4 OUT teams. They will make it. Cannot ignore the SOS. Committee also like to see how many NCAA tournament teams you have beaten. ETOWN does not stack up against Tufts resume.

[lastguyoffthebench]

Yes, MIT E-town and TMC with nearly identical resumes, but MIT is the benefactor of the larger region and will get in over both.