2015 POOL C

[PaulNewman]

It's really the same argument for playing in a weak conference - if playing at home (or in a weak conference) gives you a higher probability of the AQ, that offsets the punishment you might get on the SOS metric. 

I don't think I buy the weak conference argument either in terms of greater likelihood of AQ so it's OK if you get overly punished on the SoS metric.  Not sure those two things really have anything to do with each other, or perhaps shouldn't.  That doesn't account for the times when a weak conference happens to have 2 or even 3 good teams, and the risk of losing/not advancing (in OT, PKs, or otherwise) in a tournament environment is still a very high risk regardless of conference just given the nature of soccer and dynamics of tournaments...not necessarily the same risk as other, more obviously competitive conferences but still a high risk nonetheless.  TMC is a perfect example.  May well not get in and I'm sure more than a few of us would rate them stronger than some that will get in (and fear them more as an opponent), and their risk in their tournament in a one-off situation was still high as proven by the result.

[PaulNewman]

So maybe just treat it as neutral for the home team (no multiplier) while still giving the away team the multiplier?

That sounds more fair, but why give the away team a bonus for something they had the full opportunity to earn?  Or, start having more conference tourneys at neutral sites.  Would love to see the NCAC held at Crew Stadium 

[PaulNewman]

Speaking of TMC, I'm guessing we'll be talking a lot about them in the next couple of days.  Having been up close and personal with the fan base I'm very surprised no representatives seem to have made their way to this site.

[SandyMac]

Can't believe that Hobart isn't regionally ranked, and therefore won't get a chance at the tournament.  They're a top quality side who deserves a shot.

[Dark Knight]

Haverford,  Such an impressive schedule and mind boggling that SOS is only .585..

LGOTB, this is actually a great example of how flawed the method is.  Haverford's schedule is MUCH stronger than Tufts.  Not even in the same ballpark IMHO, and yet Tufts is ~.40 higher.

I'm sure the method has flaws, but two entirely different methods -- Massey and HeroSports -- agree that Tufts has a tougher (tuffer?) schedule. Both have Tufts at #3, Haverford at #10 and #19 respectively in strength of schedule.

It would be interesting to find major discrepancies between the SOS method and computer ranking methods.

[lastguyoffthebench]

I will guess that Rowan gets sent to the Mid-Atlantic with the likes of Haverford, Eastern, Cabrini

MSU will go to Salisbury with the likes of Salisbury, W&L, and Methodist

Camden will head to SLU with Stevens, SLU, and a team like Babson perhaps?

[SandyMac]

As a SLU supporter, that group is mortifying. Talk about a pod of death.

To this point, I hadn't really considered the possibility of SLU hosting, but I suppose it's possible. They won't place SLU and Oneonta in the same opening pod (or they shouldn't, at least), so it's probable that 2 East teams would be selected to host pods.

Itching to see the bracket!

[lastguyoffthebench]

Brandeis will get a pod MIT, Bridgewater St, Daniel Webster.

Amherst will get a pod with the likes of J&W, Gordon, and MA-Boston

Bowdoin, Middlebury, Thomas,

Oneonta St gets a draw with the likes of Morrisville St, CCNY, Scranton

Calvin with the likes of Carthage, Lake Forest, and OWU 

Kenyon with the likes of Rose-Hulman, Ohio Northern, Mt. Aloysius

Loras with CSS, St. Olaf, and

Geographically the West could be grouped together;  Trinity, Texas-Dallas, Whitworth, Colorado/Redlands

[Mr.Right]

Do Not forget Plattsburgh St if they get in. I think they get left out but if they get in they will either go to SLU or MIDD

They are not going to send 2 Jersey schools to SLU. Also, I can picture Camden going to Amherst and Stevens to Brandeis

[Brother Flounder]

Haverford,  Such an impressive schedule and mind boggling that SOS is only .585..

LGOTB, this is actually a great example of how flawed the method is.  Haverford's schedule is MUCH stronger than Tufts.  Not even in the same ballpark IMHO, and yet Tufts is ~.40 higher.

I'm sure the method has flaws, but two entirely different methods -- Massey and HeroSports -- agree that Tufts has a tougher (tuffer?) schedule. Both have Tufts at #3, Haverford at #10 and #19 respectively in strength of schedule.

It would be interesting to find major discrepancies between the SOS method and computer ranking methods.

Tufts has the all-around tougher schedule in my honest opinion...

[blooter442]

Brandeis will get a pod MIT, Gordon, and Bridgewater St/MA-Boston.

Unless Brandeis gets the bye. In that case, I can't even begin to predict who they'd get. MIT, despite its loss yesterday, might even get to host.

[lastguyoffthebench]

No way:

Haverford
Scranton (Landmark Champs)
@ Stevens (E8 Champs)
vs Wesleyan
@ MSU (NJAC Runner-up)
@ JHU (regionally ranked)
vs Stockton (#2/#3 South Atlantic)
@ Gbury (regionally ranked)
@ RUC (#2-#4 South Atlantic, NJAC Champs)
vs Dickinson
vs F&M
vs Swat
vs JHU
vs Dickinson


Tufts
Endicott
vs Conn
vs Brandeis (UAA CHamps)
@ Wesleyan
@ Amherst
vs Midd
vs Gordon
@ Williams
vs Bowdoin
vs Bowdoin

[blooter442]

Lastguy, I forgot - Brandeis actually has no chance of hosting a pod. I spoke with someone at Brandeis and they said the men will either get the bye and host R2 or they'll be on the road - the Brandeis women will 99% have a pod and they get priority this year.

[PaulNewman]

Tufts has the all-around tougher schedule in my honest opinion...
[/quote]

In your honest opinion?  Touche again!

Non-conf for Haverford -- Scranton (just beat 17-1 E'town and NCAA team), @Stevens (NCAA team), @Rosemont, Wesleyan (just got to NESCAC final and beat #1 Amherst), @Montclair State (top 5 team in the country and NCAA team), Stockton (2nd in NJAC and very possible NCAA team), Rutgers-Camden (just won NJAC tourney and NCAA team), Catholic

I'll give Tufts slight edge on conference games, but F&M, Dickinson, Hopkins, Swat, Muhlenberg, etc are no joke.

Haverford has 10 ranked games vs 8 for Tufts.

[Brother Flounder]

Tufts has the all-around tougher schedule in my honest opinion...

In your honest opinion?  Touche again!

Non-conf for Haverford -- Scranton (just beat 17-1 E'town and NCAA team), @Stevens (NCAA team), @Rosemont, Wesleyan (just got to NESCAC final and beat #1 Amherst), @Montclair State (top 5 team in the country and NCAA team), Stockton (2nd in NJAC and very possible NCAA team), Rutgers-Camden (just won NJAC tourney and NCAA team), Catholic

I'll give Tufts slight edge on conference games, but F&M, Dickinson, Hopkins, Swat, Muhlenberg, etc are no joke.

Haverford has 10 ranked games vs 8 for Tufts.
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