2015 NCAA TOURNAMENT THREAD

KICKIN95 · November 09, 2015, 06:19:08 PM

Quote from: NJrexSoccer03 on November 09, 2015, 04:12:45 PM
Toughest - Montclair St Pod
Weakest - Loras Pod

I would put Haverford's Pod below Loras's

Mid-Atlantic Fan · November 09, 2015, 07:14:41 PM

Quote from: NEsoccerfan on November 09, 2015, 04:08:20 PM
Which pod does everyone think is the toughest/weakest? Which perennial top 10 team does everyone think has the most difficult/easiest path to the final 4?

Top to bottom I would say MSU's pod is the toughest. I would not be surprised to see any of a handful of teams to make it out of there (MSU, Kenyon, Carnegie, OWU, F+M, Calvin, and even chicago, TMC or tufts)The amherst pod is the most top heavy IMO. Brandeis, Trinity, and Amherst could all make strong cases as the top team in the country, and I would not have been surprised if any of the three received a bye. On the other hand, the Loras pod appears to be the weakest. I would rank the pods: MSU, Amherst, Haverford, Loras in terms of strength.

I would say pretty much whatever team that makes it out of the MSU pod will have to face 3, if not 4 very difficult opponents. Trinity also has a very difficult path out, having to face texas-dallas, whitworth/redlands, a potential rematch against brandeis, and possibly amherst in the elite 8.

Montclair St has the toughest by far and the easiest goes to probably Loras followed closely by Haverford's pod.

top 10 team with toughest path is Montclair State if it pans out the way it could. Easiest for me would be Loras or Brandeis.

backyarddawg · November 09, 2015, 07:39:58 PM

Haverford pod cannot be the easiest.

Potential sweet 16 match-ups.

Haverford vs SLU
Oneonta State vs MIT/Bowdoin

That Sweet 16 pod is deeper then others.

Quote from: Mid-Atlantic Fan on November 09, 2015, 07:14:41 PM
Quote from: NEsoccerfan on November 09, 2015, 04:08:20 PM
Which pod does everyone think is the toughest/weakest? Which perennial top 10 team does everyone think has the most difficult/easiest path to the final 4?

Top to bottom I would say MSU's pod is the toughest. I would not be surprised to see any of a handful of teams to make it out of there (MSU, Kenyon, Carnegie, OWU, F+M, Calvin, and even chicago, TMC or tufts)The amherst pod is the most top heavy IMO. Brandeis, Trinity, and Amherst could all make strong cases as the top team in the country, and I would not have been surprised if any of the three received a bye. On the other hand, the Loras pod appears to be the weakest. I would rank the pods: MSU, Amherst, Haverford, Loras in terms of strength.

I would say pretty much whatever team that makes it out of the MSU pod will have to face 3, if not 4 very difficult opponents. Trinity also has a very difficult path out, having to face texas-dallas, whitworth/redlands, a potential rematch against brandeis, and possibly amherst in the elite 8.

Montclair St has the toughest by far and the easiest goes to probably Loras followed closely by Haverford's pod.

top 10 team with toughest path is Montclair State if it pans out the way it could. Easiest for me would be Loras or Brandeis.

PaulNewman · November 09, 2015, 08:55:46 PM

NCAC's Barber Shop Trash Talk (NCAA Selection Day Edition)

RPI? RPI?? RPI?

?? Really? With a tip of the cap to LGOTB and with apologies to three generations of in-law graduates, you have got to be kidding me. I know, the selection already has been covered in spades, but we should continue to mention this travesty in every post for the next week. RPI over Middlebury? Over Colorado College (when the West did not get a single Pool C)? Over Elizabethtown? Over Brockport? Over Stockton? Over FIVE other Liberty League teams that finished ahead of the Engineers? RPI hasn't even played a game in about a month. Wow. Just wow.

No other selection comes close to the RPI pick, and I'm OK with the rest, although some of the stick-out-like-a-sore-thumb omissions are tough to swallow. The other two most questionable for my money are DePauw and Chicago, although neither is a big surprise. Maybe UW-Oshkosh... but I thought we were overlooking the Overalls all along in our predictions. Many will mention Thomas More because of the apparent squeeze play in Great Lakes, but the Thoroughbreds are a NCAA quality team and a sleeper choice to go deep. Other than RPI, there is not a single team that stands out as unworthy of a bid, but saying that provides no comfort for Middlebury, Elizabethtown, Brockport and Colorado College. Has any team that finished 2nd in the NESCAC ever been denied a bid, and especially when their SoS did not turn out to be a problem at all (even if we've criticized their out-of-conference schedule)

I'm going to dub this one The Crime At Otter Creek. Just means way too much to the players to have a screw-up this bad, and you never know if you'll be in such a good position to get a bid again during your four years.

First round upsets, in order of likelihood: Gordon over Carnegie Mellon, Westminster (MO) over DePauw, Bridgewater State over MIT.

Most compelling First round games: Rowan vs Dickinson, Redlands vs Whitworth, Chicago vs Thomas More, Trinity (TX) vs Texas-Dallas, and in the honorable mention category, Washington & Lee vs Methodist and RPI vs Stevens.

Potential 2nd round blockbusters, in order of magnitude: Montclair St vs Tufts, OWU vs Calvin, Oneonta St vs Rutgers-Camden, Trinity (TX) vs Whitworth, Kenyon vs Thomas More.

Strange geography...the whole West group with the survivor possibly heading to Amherst or Brandeis, and Tufts potentially traveling to Kenyon, OWU or Calvin. Not so strange geographically, but odd that the only remaining unbeaten team in the country, Calvin, is road-tripping.

Hunches...presuming an OWU vs Calvin match-up I like the winner's chances of getting to the Elite 8, as I'm not sure F&M will even get to the Sweet 16, and if they do may be a "soft" heavyweight among projected Sweet 16 participants. OWU just has to be careful about looking ahead to Calvin as MSOE has firepower and with an early goal or two might park the bus and try to ride out the game. As already noted, Loras has a superb set-up and barring some malaise might not face a truly stern test until Wheaton (Ill) (if the Thunder can advance there). Amherst also should not be bothered at all until the Elite 8 and the Lord Jeffs have to be strong favorites to reach the Final Four, and honestly their road all the way to the championship game is very doable looking at the bracket below them. The winner of Plattsburgh vs Bowdoin has an excellent chance to advance to the Sweet 16, as I can see either handling MIT. My gut tells me that Haverford will have a tricky game with the winner of W&L vs Methodist, but the 'Fords may be just too hot for that to matter. Haverford vs St Lawrence would be a good match-up. The winner of that projected battle would be a good bet to reach Kansas City. Brandeis must be pretty happy with their draw. They had to think there would be no escaping Amherst, but I like their chances at home the first weekend and then playing a West team either at Amherst or Waltham. Watch out for Whitworth, although the Pirates are in a brutal pod and may not prevail vs Redlands.

RE: discussion about toughest quadrants...let's look at the projected Sweet 16 if form holds (which we know it won't)....

Amherst
Lycoming (Rowan/Dickinson)
Brandeis
Trinity (TX) (Whitworth)

Haverford
St Lawrence
Oneonta (RUC)
MIT (Bowdoin/Plattsburgh)

Montclair State (Tufts)
Kenyon
Franklin & Marshall
OWU (Calvin)

Loras
Wash U
Macalester (Oshkosh)
Wheaton (Ill) (UW-W)

I tend to agree with the sentiments expressed so far about the relative strength of the quadrants, while noting that one major upset can really open up a quadrant and change the dynamics and relative competitiveness (or lack thereof).

Toughest road to the Final Four....Thomas More. I'm sure TMC is extremely relieved to snag a bid many thought they would not get. The reward (potentially) is Chicago, Kenyon, Montclair/Tufts, OWU/Calvin.

blooter442 · November 09, 2015, 09:12:53 PM

Vote for toughest pod: Kenyon, Chicago, Thomas More, Westminster (PA).

PaulNewman · November 09, 2015, 09:34:26 PM

Out of the D3soccer.com Top 25, the Montclair quad has #1, #3, #5, #7, #9, #13, and #17.

Mr.Right · November 10, 2015, 09:38:49 AM

Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on November 09, 2015, 03:56:19 PM
What do you have, Mr.Right?

Amherst at 10/1 because Amherst is... Amherst

Not this year. They are to talented and to be quite honest if Serpone cannot guide them to the Final 4 and quite frankly a championship it would be considered a MAJOR disappointment. They are my favorite especially being at home against either Brandeis or Trinity TX / Whitworth.

Amherst 4/1
Loras 6/1
Oneonta St 8/1
Trinity TX 10/1
Montclair St 10/1
UW Whitewater 12/1
Brandeis 12/1
OWU 12/1
Haverford 16/1
Camden 16/1
Kenyon 16/1
SLU 20/1
Whitworth 20/1
F&M 25/1
Tufts 25/1
Calvin 30/1
Wheaton IL 30/1
Wash U 30/1
CMU 40/1
Lycoming 40/1
Stevens 60/1
Chicago 60/1
Rowan 75/1
MIT 75/1
Bowdoin 75/1
Macalester 75/1
St. Scholastica 75/1
Salisbury 100/1
Plattsburgh St 100/1
Dickinson 100/1
Redlands 150/1
Thomas More 150/1
MSOE 200/1
Lake Forest 200/1
DePauw 200/1
Rose-Hulman 200/1
RPI 300/1
UT Dallas 300/1
W&L 300/1
Eastern 300/1
UMASS Boston 300/1
Gordon 300/1
Babson 300/1
Field 1500/1

Shooter McGavin · November 10, 2015, 09:51:42 AM

Quote from: Mr.Right on November 10, 2015, 09:38:49 AM
Quote from: lastguyoffthebench on November 09, 2015, 03:56:19 PM
What do you have, Mr.Right?

Amherst at 10/1 because Amherst is... Amherst

Not this year. They are to talented and to be quite honest if Serpone cannot guide them to the Final 4 and quite frankly a championship it would be considered a MAJOR disappointment. They are my favorite especially being at home against either Brandeis or Trinity TX / Whitworth.

Amherst 4/1
Loras 6/1
Oneonta St 8/1
Trinity TX 10/1
Montclair St 10/1
UW Whitewater 12/1
Brandeis 12/1
OWU 12/1
Haverford 16/1
Camden 16/1
Kenyon 16/1
SLU 20/1
Whitworth 20/1
F&M 25/1
Tufts 25/1
Calvin 30/1
Wheaton IL 30/1
Wash U 30/1
CMU 40/1
Lycoming 40/1
Stevens 60/1
Chicago 60/1
Rowan 75/1
MIT 75/1
Bowdoin 75/1
Macalester 75/1
St. Scholastica 75/1
Salisbury 100/1
Plattsburgh St 100/1
Dickinson 100/1
Redlands 150/1
Thomas More 150/1
MSOE 200/1
Lake Forest 200/1
DePauw 200/1
Rose-Hulman 200/1
RPI 300/1
UT Dallas 300/1
W&L 300/1
Eastern 300/1
UMASS Boston 300/1
Gordon 300/1
Babson 300/1
Field 1500/1

Is Messiah in the field section of the odds....?

Mr.Right · November 10, 2015, 09:59:21 AM

Anyone not listed is in the Field section and if you do not agree with it I will be happy to take your sneakers if you are feeling lucky

Shooter McGavin · November 10, 2015, 10:04:24 AM

I don't think Messiah has a chance at the title this year...what do you think?

Too soon?

wingtips2 · November 10, 2015, 10:30:59 AM

Quote from: NJrexSoccer03 on November 09, 2015, 04:12:45 PM
Toughest - Montclair St Pod
Weakest - Loras Pod

It is the weakest because Loras is the weakest 'high' seed.

lastguyoffthebench · November 10, 2015, 10:43:43 AM

SATURDAY:
M: 1:30 PM Dickinson at Rowan Live Stats Video
M: 1:30 PM Eastern at Rutgers-Camden Live Stats Video
M: 1:30 PM Thomas More at Chicago Live Stats Video
M: 1:30 PM Scranton at Mass-Boston Live Stats Video

Solid grouping of games, tough to decide which 2nd game to watch at the same time. Leaning Thomas More at Chicago

M: 5:00 PM Thomas at Brandeis
M: 5:00 PM Babson at Franklin and Marshall Live Stats Video
M: 5:00 PM Daniel Webster at MSU

My guess is Brandeis will have video? But definitely tuning into Babson at F&M

M: 7:30 PM Stevens at RPI
M: 7:30 PM Gordon at Carnegie Mellon Live Stats Video
M: 7:30 PM Salisbury at Tufts

Another solid grouping. Leaning towards watching the Gulls at Tufts

Other games I'll be watching:
Methodist at W&L 2:00 Thursday (don't sleep on the ODAC... if win, I'm expecting a great game vs the Fords)
Cabrini at Morrisville St 6:00 Thursday (Morrisville played Messiah well last year and Cabrini has been under the radar)
MSOE at OWU 5:00 Friday
CSS at Macalester 6:00 Friday
St. Olaf at UW-O 8:30 Friday
Rose-Hulman at UW-W 8:30 Friday
Plattsburgh St at Bowdoin TBA Saturday
Texas-Dallas at Trinity 12:00 Saturday

KICKIN95 · November 10, 2015, 03:34:33 PM

Quote from: wingtips2 on November 10, 2015, 10:30:59 AM
Quote from: NJrexSoccer03 on November 09, 2015, 04:12:45 PM
Toughest - Montclair St Pod
Weakest - Loras Pod
It is the weakest because Loras is the weakest 'high' seed.

What logic are you using to come up with that statement? The NCAA awarded Loras not only with the #1 seed, but also the bye due to their high SOS. LGOTB seems to disagree also by posting 6/1 odds at winning (second only to Amherst at 4/1).

wingtips2 · November 10, 2015, 05:19:44 PM

Quote from: KICKIN95 on November 10, 2015, 03:34:33 PM
Quote from: wingtips2 on November 10, 2015, 10:30:59 AM
Quote from: NJrexSoccer03 on November 09, 2015, 04:12:45 PM
Toughest - Montclair St Pod
Weakest - Loras Pod
It is the weakest because Loras is the weakest 'high' seed.
What logic are you using to come up with that statement? The NCAA awarded Loras not only with the #1 seed, but also the bye due to their high SOS. LGOTB seems to disagree also by posting 6/1 odds at winning (second only to Amherst at 4/1).

This is not as strong a Loras team as we've seen in recent years - I'm perplexed as to how they received a high seed and a bye, high SOS or no SOS.
As has been noted elsewhere, two of the teams that have already beaten them are in their pod and they had a loss to a very average St Thomas team.
Not to mention the fact that the D3Soccer poll has them in 19th place...so I'm not the only one wondering what is going on here.

casualfan · November 10, 2015, 06:53:13 PM

Agreed, I've seen Loras a few times this year and the Loras teams of the past few years would have their way with the 2015 version Duhawks. With that said, they're playing well at the right time. I think they make it to the Sweet 16 and meet a good team in WashU/DePauw and the Duhawks fall there.