2015 NCAA TOURNAMENT THREAD

[Puerco Espin]

Loras Sectional moved up to 12 and 2:30pm on Friday due to expectation of snow. Saturday's sectional final is still scheduled for 5pm as of this point in time.

[Dark Knight]

Some of the match-ups are really compelling.  Who would expect Brandeis to be playing Trinity, and bizarrely they already played once this season!  That game will have no impact on this one.  Brandeis is tournament tough.  Agree they play very good soccer but also have an edge and toughness.  Haverford and SLU should be great, and F&M vs Calvin is another odd pair which could go either way.  These unusual pairings are offset by an expected Loras-Wheaton classic showdown.

I have absolutely no idea what is going to happen Tufts vs Kenyon.  This is the kind of game I wish we could see as an early regular season match-up.  Most here will pick Tufts and Kenyon will NOT be favored.  An odd thing about Kenyon is that they were ranked #2 in the country about 90% of last season and top 5 90% of this season, and yet they seemed like the underdog every time they played OWU both years and I think that will be the case against Tufts.  Kenyon is 36-3-2 (I think) over the past two seasons.  Sort of strange to have a team ranked higher (substantially higher) for the large majority of two years still being doubted so much when they play a big team.  But this past weekend's results certainly did nothing to quell doubts and until a Kenyon or F&M fully breaks through the doubts will continue.

The game is at Kenyon and Kenyon is rated higher, so why wouldn't they be the favorite?    Plus, see the bracketology in this forum below:

Massey Ratings   51   AMHERST      HAVERFORD      LORAS      CALVIN      AMHERST      CALVIN      AMHERST
Flying Weasel   50   AMHERST      ONEONTA ST      LORAS      KENYON      AMHERST      LORAS      LORAS
RUMSU   50   BRANDEIS      HAVERFORD      LORAS      MSU      HAVERFORD      MSU      HAVERFORD
Consensus   49   AMHERST      HAVERFORD      LORAS      MSU      AMHERST      MSU      AMHERST
blooter442   49   AMHERST      ONEONTA ST      WHEATON      MSU      AMHERST      MSU      AMHERST
Golden_Fan   49   AMHERST      ONEONTA ST      WHEATON      MSU      ONEONTA ST      MSU      MSU
casualfan   48   BRANDEIS      HAVERFORD      WHEATON      KENYON      BRANDEIS      KENYON      KENYON
NJrexSoccer03   46   AMHERST      R-CAMDEN      LORAS      MSU      AMHERST      MSU      AMHERST
WarhawkFan   45   AMHERST      HAVERFORD      LORAS      KENYON      HAVERFORD      KENYON      HAVERFORD
HeroSports   44   AMHERST      HAVERFORD      LORAS      KENYON      HAVERFORD      KENYON      HAVERFORD
NERevs127   44   BRANDEIS      HAVERFORD      WHEATON      KENYON      HAVERFORD      KENYON      KENYON
Mr.Right   43   AMHERST      ONEONTA ST      LORAS      CHICAGO      ONEONTA ST      LORAS      LORAS
Letthekidsplay59   43   BRANDEIS      BOWDOIN      WASH (MO)      CHICAGO      BRANDEIS      CHICAGO      BRANDEIS
Shooter McGavin   42   LYCOMING      ONEONTA ST      LORAS      OWU      ONEONTA ST      LORAS      ONEONTA ST
D3 Scout   42   AMHERST      R-CAMDEN      U-WW      OWU      AMHERST      UW-W      AMHERST
dontshootthegoose   42   AMHERST      HAVERFORD      LORAS      F&M      AMHERST      F&M      AMHERST
wingtips2   42   STEVENS      SLU      WHEATON      KENYON      SLU      KENYON      KENYON
Mid-Atlantic Fan   41   AMHERST      HAVERFORD      WHEATON      MSU      AMHERST      MSU      AMHERST
NCAC New England   41   AMHERST      SLU      U-WW      KENYON      SLU      KENYON      KENYON
lastguyoffthebench   39   AMHERST      R-CAMDEN      WHEATON      MSU      AMHERST      MSU      AMHERST

You mean Massey Ratings is doing better than every single human entrant? That's really quite remarkable. Considerably better than HeroSports too.

I'd love to see the D3Soccer.com poll and NCAA regional rankings added. I realize they wouldn't be able to predict all games, but you could compare their W/L record to the other sources for the games they can predict. For the NCAA regional rankings, I guess you'd have to use the last public ones. My guess is that they will be pretty far down in predictive accuracy.

[backyarddawg]

Any other people have thoughts on the games?

Would love to hear from the guys who are regular writers. 

Mr. Right's Fast Food Predictions-Shooter McGavin Style

Tufts at Kenyon                        1-0   Tufts. I am not seeing a lot of goals in this game either Mr. Right. Tufts is determined to get back to the final 4 and I think they get a good start with an early goal and ride it out for the win.

Calvin v F&M                             2-1   F&M. I was a little unsure about F&M after their bad close to the season but they have been clicking in the tournament and I look for that to continue. Calvin is finally going to have a big test and I don't think they will respond.

Lycoming at Amherst              1-1 PK's    Lycoming.  Amherst on their home field is a tough task for the other 3 grouped in this sectional and Mr. Right is 100% correct in saying that you will not win a war in the air v Amherst. So I think Lycoming makes the proper adjustments and gives up a set piece goal but responds with a goal of their own late to send it to OT. And just like in 2013 a top tier team chokes as they are not accustom to this situation. Lycoming sneaks by in Pk's...barely, as Amherst slips up too early once again. 

Trinity TX v Brandeis                2-0    Brandeis. They are one of the hottest teams in the country right now as Mr. Right mentioned and they dominated the game vs Trinity earlier this year for 70 of the 90 minutes. But Trinity pounced with 2 goals during that 20 minute span and the game was over. Revenge is a cruel thing as Brandeis comes out with a chip on their shoulder and takes care of business after a slow start in the opening rounds of the tournament. The jet lag and weather get's to Trinity's head and they go down a man with a red card due to a mental error as Brandeis rides out the 2-0 lead.

Wheaton v St.Olaf                    4-2    Wheaton. A high scoring affair as Wheaton's offense is as dynamic as they come but they go into the break tied at 2 with a stingy St. Olaf team. Unfortunately the wheels finally fall off and Wheaton ends Cinderella's dream.

Loras v DePauw                       2-1    Loras.   Loras comes out with 2 quick goals in the first 15 minutes and continues to attack with vengeance. DePauw scores late but it's not enough and Loras advances to the Elite 8.

SLU at Haverford                     2-1   SLU.      Haverford should win but they overlook a very strong SLU team and get tossed around at home. SLU scores early in both halves and advances to meet Oneonta St.

Oneonta st v MIT                     3-1  Oneonta St.      This was Mr. Right's upset pick but I am not buying it. Oneonta St has been my pick all year and that's not going to change now. Oneonta rolls past MIT and is set on getting to Kansas City. This may be the best team in the country right now.

[PaulNewman]

NCAC's picks (because after all I'm at the bottom of the bracketology pool)

Tufts vs Kenyon -- No comment

Calvin vs F&M -- Calvin's comeback win over OWU was the most impressive psychological performance of the tournament thus far, considering what OWU means/represents to Calvin, playing at OWU, going down a goal and getting pummeled, and finding a way back while their unbeaten season was slipping away.  Getting through that kind of game alive combined with F&M having no psychic advantages over Calvin going into the game means that Calvin will feel confident and play its game.  F&M has a seed of doubt and will be in trouble if they go down early whereas I think Calvin could overcome a 1-goal deficit.  Calvin 2-1 (maybe 3-1).

Lycoming vs Amherst -- Amherst 2-0.  No upset happening here even though Lycoming better than that prediction suggests.  Lycoming just got an unlucky draw having to play Amherst at Amherst.

Trinity vs Brandeis -- An almost impossible game to predict.  My heart says Brandeis but my head says Brandeis will need more than 1 goal unless they get another in OT or get through on PKs.  Trinity 2-1 OT.

SLU vs Haverford -- I picked SLU to get to Kansas City as a semi-darkhorse pick, but that was before knowing for sure that they'd get Haverford at Haverford.  Despite the sudden Oneonta hype, no team has been better and more consistent than Haverford.  The Fords have been given more than ample opportunity for a stumble and haven't yet.  One could surmise that the moment will be too big for them, but the vibe they've given and the way they've won some games suggest exactly the opposite.  Haverford 3-1 (really a 2-1 game but Fords get another late when SLU is in desperation mode).

MIT vs Oneonta -- The upset pick is tempting here, as in an overall group of games so even this looks like one of the ones closest to having a very clear favorite.  OK, yes, I think Oneonta is vulnerable to thinking this one is already in the bag, and MIT is 18-2-1 after all.  Getting through Bowdoin makes me believe MIT can beat a big boy.  MIT 2-1.

DePauw vs Loras -- Perhaps the game that most screams blowout and yet something is making me hesitate.  Partly because DePauw did beat Loras 2-0, partly because I'm not quite sure how good Loras is (compared to recent Loras teams), and partly because I've underestimated DePauw all year.  My head says 3-0 or 4-1 Loras, but what the heck, I'll go DePauw 2-1 OT.

St Olaf vs Wheaton -- Another strong candidate for a relative blowout, but that's mostly because of St. Olaf's record and some vague (likely very incorrect) sense that the Oles are soft and sort of a fluke Sweet 16 participant.  Something tells me St Olaf is better than we think -- won MIAC regular season last year and the MIAC always has some good teams, and this year in addition to Macalester has played Loras, UW-W, Chicago and UW-Osh.  This won't be like a Keuka playing a powerhouse for the first time.  I'm gonna guess that the Oles scare the daylights out of Wheaton with Wheaton winning in double OT 3-2.

[D3soccerwatcher]

My picks for Elite 8:

Lycoming
Trinity
Loras
Wheaton (Ill)
Haverford
SUNY Oneonta
Kenyon
F&M

[firstplaceloser]

My Picks for Elite 8:

Kenyon
Calvin
Amherst
Trinity
SLU
Oneonta St
Loras
Wheaton

Final 4:

Kenyon
Oneonta St
Wheaton
Amherst

Final:

Oneonta St 3- Kenyon 2

[Mr.Right]

Loras Sectional moved up to 12 and 2:30pm on Friday due to expectation of snow. Saturday's sectional final is still scheduled for 5pm as of this point in time.

I am surprised they moved this game for snow. It say's a couple of inches. However, the temps would have been in the upper 20's. That is frigid. Still temps are not going to rise past mid 30's.

[Footy23]

For reference....2013 sweet 16 & elite 8 weekend had temps single digits without wind chill which were rumored to be in the negatives. All games were still played in the evening. All weather sources have different information, but winter storm warning "guarantees" 6+ inches this evening through tomorrow morning. Depending on the amount of snow, wouldn't be surprised if Saturday's 5pm kick off gets pushed back to later in the evening.

[KnightFalcon]

For reference....2013 sweet 16 & elite 8 weekend had temps single digits without wind chill which were rumored to be in the negatives. All games were still played in the evening. All weather sources have different information, but winter storm warning "guarantees" 6+ inches this evening through tomorrow morning. Depending on the amount of snow, wouldn't be surprised if Saturday's 5pm kick off gets pushed back to later in the evening.

Sounds like the 2002 final held at St Lawrence where they had to shovel the snow off the field.

[PaulNewman]

Gonna suck when the Kenyon video jams....hopefully not....Gambier literally is in the middle of nowhere...lucky to have any internet connection at all juxtaposed to the Amish lined up on Middle Path selling their wares out of their buggies...

I am hearing that it's a beautiful day, though...almost perfect for soccer..

[Saint of Old]

Tufts at Kenyon: 2-1 Tufts
I respect the hell out of Kenyon and if they win this game, they become my favorite to go to the final 4, but as the old saying goes "never underestimate the heart of a Champion".

Calvin 2 F+M 0

Calvin is a dangerous team.

Lycoming 1 Amherst 2

This is the best chance the Lord Jeffs have of making the final 4.

Trinity 1 Brandies 0
This one could honestly go either way I think.

Wheaton 3 St. Olaf 1
You cannot bet against Wheaton. When they lose they lose to eventual champions, not sure if St. Olaf is there yet.

Loras 2 Depaw 0
Loras has too much.

SLU Haverford
May the best team win.

Oneonta 2 MIT1

This might be the game of the weekend.

[Mr.Right]

Gonna suck when the Kenyon video jams....hopefully not....Gambier literally is in the middle of nowhere...lucky to have any internet connection at all juxtaposed to the Amish lined up on Middle Path selling their wares out of their buggies...

I am hearing that it's a beautiful day, though...almost perfect for soccer..

Oh c'mon you think the stream is going to freeze?

[Mr.Right]

Stream looks good right now.

[Mr.Right]

Never seen starters keep their coats on when they are announcing

[Footy23]

Phenomenal hype video for the teams at Loras https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jTtABOAy_Jw