2015 NCAA TOURNAMENT THREAD

[PaulNewman]

Lastguy,

1) Why were you so sure about RPI?

2) Do you give Eastern much of a shot again RUC, and do you think RUC will be looking ahead to Oneonta?

[lastguyoffthebench]

Gut feeling and the fact that they beat Oneonta St was huge... Respectable win percentage, RvR, and magic number SOS.  Brockport slightly better win % and SOS, but two losses to Oneonta St did them in. They make the Conf final and RPI finishes 7th.   Stings the nostrils, but RPI did enough out of conference early to boost their chances.


I am certain Camden will prep for Eastern without looking ahead.  The staff will get to watch Oneonta St at 11.   Of course Eastern will come prepared as well.  I'm expecting a tight 1 goal game... 1-0, 2-1 range.  Eastern has leveled off and Camden is starting to play better... Should be a good one. 

Common opponent results:
                         RUC     EU
Salisbury            0-1.    1-0
Swat.                 0-1.    1-0
Manhattanville    3-2.     2-1
Miseri.                7-1.    2-0
Rosemont.          9-0.    2-0

[lastguyoffthebench]

I was also sure TMC wouldn't get a bid.  I had Chicago as my last team in...

[PaulNewman]

I was also sure TMC wouldn't get a bid.  I had Chicago as my last team in...

Certainly can be confusing....and a very thin line.  Chicago no doubt had to win that Wash U game.  Case with just a couple of OT bounces could have ended up from unranked to hosting the first weekend.  Given where Calvin and Kenyon were regionally ranked, you have to wonder if just one loss could have put them out.  And then there are teams that did lose, including with some frequency, and who weren't even still playing, who apparently were always in pretty good shape.  I know, I know, it's the SoS, stupid, except when it isn't (Midd).

[lastguyoffthebench]

Amherst has the easiest road - Cabrini, Lycoming, Brandeis/Trinity.
Amherst could get to final 4 without conceding a goal

MSU 2nd easiest - Daniel "bye" Webster, Tufts, Kenyon, F&M/Calvin/OWU
This reminds me of 2011, Camden wins NJAC and loses Elite 8 to Oneonta St in 2OT at SLU; MSU makes it to Final 4.  MSU too much fire power for the likes of Kenyon and Calvin. 

Loras 3rd - ONU, Wash/DePauw, Wheaton
Loras gets perennial chokers UAA Conference team, Washington and 2-10 tourney DePauw.  Wheaton is a serious threat to their chances.  I think the Thunder buddies pull it off.

Haverford toughest - W&L, SLU, Oneonta/Camden/Bowdoin/Plattsburgh St...
Fords will have tough match ups each round, and this is the most wide open pod, IMO


I don't care what the "rankings" say, but MSU pod has weak conference champions; Salisbury, Gordon, Babson, MSOE. ---- C'monnnn.   Battle tested teams with not enough to beat MSU; Tufts, CMU, Chicago, OWU, F&M.   And of course you have Kenyon & Calvin - untested strong programs.  Then you have TMC a non AQ from weak conference... It's the weakest in terms of SOS, IMO. 

[Midwest Soccer]

Amherst has the easiest road - Cabrini, Lycoming, Brandeis/Trinity.
Amherst could get to final 4 without conceding a goal

MSU 2nd easiest - Daniel "bye" Webster, Tufts, Kenyon, F&M/Calvin/OWU
This reminds me of 2011, Camden wins NJAC and loses Elite 8 to Oneonta St in 2OT at SLU; MSU makes it to Final 4.  MSU too much fire power for the likes of Kenyon and Calvin. 

Loras 3rd - ONU, Wash/DePauw, Wheaton
Loras gets perennial chokers UAA Conference team, Washington and 2-10 tourney DePauw.  Wheaton is a serious threat to their chances.  I think the Thunder buddies pull it off.

Haverford toughest - W&L, SLU, Oneonta/Camden/Bowdoin/Plattsburgh St...
Fords will have tough match ups each round, and this is the most wide open pod, IMO


I don't care what the "rankings" say, but MSU pod has weak conference champions; Salisbury, Gordon, Babson, MSOE. ---- C'monnnn.   Battle tested teams with not enough to beat MSU; Tufts, CMU, Chicago, OWU, F&M.   And of course you have Kenyon & Calvin - untested strong programs.  Then you have TMC a non AQ from weak conference... It's the weakest in terms of SOS, IMO.

Sorry but when did MSU become the program to beat? I'll take Kenyon/Chicago/TMC over them if they get past Tufts.

[blooter442]

Thunder buddies

I saw that.

[lastguyoffthebench]

Midwest Soccer... For the sake of competition, I hope Kenyon squares up against MSU; instant classic potential.

[PaulNewman]

LGOTB, nice work on the overnight shift.

I'm going to agree and disagree with your analysis, although that seems crazy while you're in the middle of your hot streak, and I'll probably see you re-posting this post in about 11 days as you bask in celebration of yet another predictions victory.

On the MSU pod, I won't argue with you much on the weakest SoS claim as the pod does have wild variability, BUT, there is still Tufts at .623, Chicago at .599, OWU at .597, MSU at .584, CMU at .579, and F&M at .571.  Then there are Kenyon, Calvin, and TMC at the low end where IMHO their SoS does not parallel the challenge that they present.  I would agree as a general statement that MSU may have too much firepower for the other teams in this field, and in my view MSU talent-wise is one of the top 2-3 teams in the country with as good an opportunity as anyone to win the national title.  Here's the problem.  If Tufts beats Salisbury (not a given with all the questions around the Jumbos but I think they'll find a way to get out of that one alive), MSU will be facing one of the few teams that can match them pound-for-pound and that will go into the game fully expecting to prevail.  I can't imagine a more difficult 2nd round opponent for MSU.  That is a 50/50 game IMO, and if Tufts gets ahead I think MSU will be in real trouble as the pressure in the game mounts.  If I'm MSU, I'd rather play any other team in the pod than Tufts and they could get them 2nd round. 

I think I know what you mean about Kenyon and Calvin being strong untested programs, but is that really true?  Starting with Calvin you're talking about a program that is right there on the heels of Messiah and Wheaton, and who was in the national title game in 2011.  I don't care who they've played, the Knights are 20-0-1 with 76 GF and 4 GA.  If Calvin somehow survives OWU and then [F&M/CMU, etc] they will be playing well and a legitimate challenge....probably not enough to beat MSU but no cakewalk by any means.  In the Sweet 16, MSU IMO would have too much for either TMC or Chicago, although TMC would have no fear and fights for a win like almost no team I've ever seen.  I'll put it this way....underestimate TMC at your own risk.  If MSU gets Kenyon I think the Lords are the second most difficult foe in the whole pod for them (after Tufts).  Kenyon has played in a bunch of high-intensity, high pressure games over the past three years, and Kenyon probably prefers being in a bit more of an underdog role as long as they are playing anyone who doesn't have OWU on its jersey.  I would expect a MSU-Kenyon game to be very similar to the Messiah-Kenyon game of 2013, with the difference being that Kenyon would go in fully expecting to win and much closer to even from a talent standpoint.  That would be another great game, just as I think Tufts-Kenyon would be a very intriguing match-up.  The winner of the projected OWU-Calvin game I'm guessing would be quite happy to see anyone other than MSU on the other side.  And if OWU manages to get to the Elite 8, then just based on their pedigree, confidence, swag, and coaching they would be at a minimum 50/50 odds to advance regardless of who is on the other side.  In short, MSU I agree goes in as a favorite, but only a slight favorite for me, as there are at least two and probably three games they definitely would have a strong risk of losing.

I disagree that Haverford faces the toughest road.  If it's W&L I think the Generals will play well and give a good account of themselves, but based on watching them against Messiah I believe Haverford is just too strong.  SLU would certainly be a test, and SLU reminds me of last year's OWU team....not necessarily one of the best SLU squads in recent memory but good enough and with enough pedigree to get to Kansas City.  This would be another very intriguing game...that will NOT be played in Canton, NY, and compared to the challenges other top teams could face in the Sweet 16, SLU is not an unreasonably difficult challenge for the 'Fords at that stage.  On the other side, Haverford wouldn't have to play ALL of those teams you listed....just one.  They have too much for Plattsburgh/Bowdoin, although Bowdoin certainly could keep the game tight and give themselves a chance.  And the 'Fords are already battle-tested for the likes of Oneonta and RUC.  A couple of teams in this pod could beat Haverford, but I certainly don't see a team that they couldn't beat.

In the Loras pod, I feel the same way about the Duhawks as I do SLU this year and OWU last year, but even stronger...not one of Loras' all-time most talented teams but still with an excellent opportunity here.  Especially if they stay in the Rock Bowl, I don't see a team outside of Wheaton that can take them out.  Now someone is going to come in and say DePauw already beat them once, and I'm telling you DePauw would have a 10% chance of beating them again.  Not going to happen.  And Wheaton has got to get to the Elite 8 to have a shot at Loras, and that may be less than a 50/50 proposition in itself.  Are we going to see the Thunder team that could run the table from here on out, or the one that can fail to prevail against a team that was something like 4-10-3?

Agree with you 95% on Amherst.  The one team that could beat them, even if outshot and outplayed, is Brandeis, and in that regard I think it's no accident that Serpone reportedly was just scouting the Judges.  Brandeis is battle-tested and possesses the right mentality to knock off Amherst (and relish doing so).  The challenge for Brandeis will be getting to that game, as their pattern of 1-0 games suggests one of those could eventually go the wrong way on them and Trinity/Whitworth/Redlands would present Brandeis with a challenge that would not be so difficult for the Lord Jeffs.

[Just realized I had a complete amnestic episode in failing to mention F&M/Babson and CMU/Gordon.  Just more evidence that the MSU pod is no joke.  Corrected an error above.]

[lastguyoffthebench]

Nice write-up, NCAC.

I was a bit tired after darts last night, but definitely not drunk.  Defensive first strong countering Tufts will cause MSU fits, but I still vote MSU.  Hoping for Kenyon Calvin elite 8 matchup-up... In a pod of MSU, Kenyon, F&M, Calvin... Kenyon to host?

Who would host in a grouping of Haverford, SLU, Oneonta St/RUC, Bowdoin? You'd have to assume Oneonta St, correct?  SLU if RUC beats Oneonta St or would it be Haverford with the nod?

[PaulNewman]

Nice write-up, NCAC.

I was a bit tired after darts last night, but definitely not drunk.  Defensive first strong countering Tufts will cause MSU fits, but I still vote MSU.  Hoping for Kenyon Calvin elite 8 matchup-up... In a pod of MSU, Kenyon, F&M, Calvin... Kenyon to host?

Who would host in a grouping of Haverford, SLU, Oneonta St/RUC, Bowdoin? You'd have to assume Oneonta St, correct?  SLU if RUC beats Oneonta St or would it be Haverford with the nod?

I think MSU hosts if they get by Tufts.  Looks like they are the #1 seed in the pod (with OWU #2?).  MSU also has the advantage of a nice turf field in case of bad weather, so MSU seems like a no-brainer to me.

And I would think Haverford would host over Oneonta but I could be wrong.

[blooter442]

For those interested in the Greater Boston area, the Brandeis and MIT pods are operating at completely different times, so you could see both sets of games if you wanted:

Saturday:
11:00am - MIT vs. Bridgewater State
1:30pm - Bowdoin vs. Plattsburgh State
5:00pm - Brandeis vs. Thomas (ME)
7:30pm - Stevens vs. RPI

Sunday:
1:00pm - MIT pod R1 winners
5:00pm - Brandeis pod R1 winners

[NJrexSoccer03]

I got a little bored. I haven't looked up if they all have streaming video but in this day and age I hope so. If you don't you shouldn't be hosting ! The second round games are in bold.

November 12th Games
​
2pm – Washing and Lee vs Methodist
​6pm – Morrisville State vs Cabrini
6pm - Ohio Northern vs Carthage

November 13th Games
​
5pm – Ohio Wesleyan vs Milwaukee Engr
6pm – Macalester vs St. Scholastica
​6pm – Wheaton(Ill) vs Lake Forest
7:30pm – Calvin vs Mount Aloysius
​8:30pm – Wis-Oshkosh vs St. Olaf
​8:30pm – Wis-Whitewater vs Rose-Hulman

November 14th Games
​
11am – SUNY Oneonta vs CCNY
11am – Lycoming vs Johnson & Wales(R.I)
11am – St. Lawrence vs Sage
11am – MIT vs Bridgewater State
11am – Kenyon vs Wesminster(PA)
​12pm – Trinity(Tx) vs Texas-Dallas
1:30pm – Rutgers-Camden vs Eastern
1:30pm – Mass-Boston vs Scranton
1:30pm – Rowan vs Dickinson
1:30pm – Plattsburgh St. vs Bowdoin
1:30pm – Chicago vs Thomas More
2:30pm – Redlands vs Whitworth
5pm – Montclair St vs Daniel Webster
5pm – Franklin and Marshall vs Babson
​5pm – Brandeis vs Thomas(Maine)
5pm – Winner Ohio Wesleyan/Milwauke Engr vs Calvin/Mount Aloysius
5:30pm – Salisbury vs Tufts
​6pm – Wash.-St. Louis vs Millsaps
6pm – Winner Wheaton/Lake Forest vs Winner Wis-Whitwater/Rose-Hulman
7:30pm – Carnegie Mellon vs Gordon
7:30pm – RPI vs Steven Inst
8pm – Winner Macalester/St. Scholastica vs Winner Wis-Oshkosh/St. Olaf
8:30pm – DePauw vs Westminster(Mo.)

November 15th Games
​
1pm – Haverford vs Winner Wash & Lee/Methodist
1pm – Winner Lycoming/John &Wales vs Winner Rowan/Dickinson
1pm – Winner St. Lawrence/Sage vs Winner Mass-Boston/Scranton
1pm – Winner SUNY Oneonta/CCNY vs Rutgers-Camden/Eastern
1pm – Winner MIT/Bridgewater State vs Winner Plattsburgh St./Bowdoin
1pm – Winner Kenyon/Westminster(PA) vs Winner Chicago/Thomas More
1:30pm Amherst vs Winner Morrisville St/Cabrini
2pm – Loras vs Winner Ohio Northern/Carthage
2pm – Winner Trinity/Texas-Dallas vs Winner Redlands/Whitworth
5pm – Winner Brandeis/Thomas vs RPI/Stevens
5pm – Winner F&M/Babson vs Winner Carnegie Mellon/Gordon
6pm – Winner Montclair St/Daniel Webster vs Winner Salisbury/Tufts
6pm – Winner Wash-St.Louis/Millsaps vs Winner DePauw/Westminster

[NJrexSoccer03]

I got a little bored. I haven't looked up if they all have streaming video but in this day and age I hope so. If you don't you shouldn't be hosting ! The second round games are in bold.

November 12th Games
​
2pm – Washing and Lee vs Methodist
​6pm – Morrisville State vs Cabrini
6pm - Ohio Northern vs Carthage

November 13th Games
​
5pm – Ohio Wesleyan vs Milwaukee Engr
6pm – Macalester vs St. Scholastica
​6pm – Wheaton(Ill) vs Lake Forest
7:30pm – Calvin vs Mount Aloysius
​8:30pm – Wis-Oshkosh vs St. Olaf
​8:30pm – Wis-Whitewater vs Rose-Hulman

November 14th Games
​
11am – SUNY Oneonta vs CCNY
11am – Lycoming vs Johnson & Wales(R.I)
11am – St. Lawrence vs Sage
11am – MIT vs Bridgewater State
11am – Kenyon vs Wesminster(PA)
​12pm – Trinity(Tx) vs Texas-Dallas
1:30pm – Rutgers-Camden vs Eastern
1:30pm – Mass-Boston vs Scranton
1:30pm – Rowan vs Dickinson
1:30pm – Plattsburgh St. vs Bowdoin
1:30pm – Chicago vs Thomas More
2:30pm – Redlands vs Whitworth
5pm – Montclair St vs Daniel Webster
5pm – Franklin and Marshall vs Babson
​5pm – Brandeis vs Thomas(Maine)
5pm – Winner Ohio Wesleyan/Milwauke Engr vs Calvin/Mount Aloysius
5:30pm – Salisbury vs Tufts
​6pm – Wash.-St. Louis vs Millsaps
6pm – Winner Wheaton/Lake Forest vs Winner Wis-Whitwater/Rose-Hulman
7:30pm – Carnegie Mellon vs Gordon
7:30pm – RPI vs Steven Inst
8pm – Winner Macalester/St. Scholastica vs Winner Wis-Oshkosh/St. Olaf
8:30pm – DePauw vs Westminster(Mo.)

November 15th Games
​
1pm – Haverford vs Winner Wash & Lee/Methodist
1pm – Winner Lycoming/John &Wales vs Winner Rowan/Dickinson
1pm – Winner St. Lawrence/Sage vs Winner Mass-Boston/Scranton
1pm – Winner SUNY Oneonta/CCNY vs Rutgers-Camden/Eastern
1pm – Winner MIT/Bridgewater State vs Winner Plattsburgh St./Bowdoin
1pm – Winner Kenyon/Westminster(PA) vs Winner Chicago/Thomas More
1:30pm Amherst vs Winner Morrisville St/Cabrini
2pm – Loras vs Winner Ohio Northern/Carthage
2pm – Winner Trinity/Texas-Dallas vs Winner Redlands/Whitworth
5pm – Winner Brandeis/Thomas vs RPI/Stevens
5pm – Winner F&M/Babson vs Winner Carnegie Mellon/Gordon
6pm – Winner Montclair St/Daniel Webster vs Winner Salisbury/Tufts
6pm – Winner Wash-St.Louis/Millsaps vs Winner DePauw/Westminster

Never mind my bold did not take. You can tell the second round games though.

[Mr.Right]

For those interested in the Greater Boston area, the Brandeis and MIT pods are operating at completely different times, so you could see both sets of games if you wanted:

Saturday:
11:00am - MIT vs. Bridgewater State
1:30pm - Bowdoin vs. Plattsburgh State
5:00pm - Brandeis vs. Thomas (ME)
7:30pm - Stevens vs. RPI

Sunday:
1:00pm - MIT pod R1 winners
5:00pm - Brandeis pod R1 winners

6 games total in these 2 pods.

Over / Under Total Goals Scored:       +6.5     -130
                                                            -6.5     +110