2015 NCAA TOURNAMENT THREAD

[RetiredD3Fan]

The NCAA scheduling committee has done it again. Another year of religious exceptions putting games on school days to avoid Sundays. 

Why should some kids have to miss school so other kids don't have to miss church? Strange precedent for the NCAA to set...

That is an absolutely valid point.  The logic escapes me.  What would happen, say, if Yeshiva (they don't play on Saturday, the Jewish Sabbath) made the tournament (ok, not going to' happen, I know, but it COULD) and was placed in a bracket with a team that did not play on Sunday?  Friday-Monday games?  For my money, if your faith is strong enough that you won't play when the rest of the field is playing, you take a forfeit and be happy that you stayed true to your faith.

A related observation.  I once saw the coaches of a-not-to-be-named-school-that-does-not-play-on-Sundays scouting the upcoming opposition on the Sunday before their match. 

[blooter442]

The NCAA scheduling committee has done it again. Another year of religious exceptions putting games on school days to avoid Sundays. 

Why should some kids have to miss school so other kids don't have to miss church? Strange precedent for the NCAA to set...

That is an absolutely valid point.  The logic escapes me.  What would happen, say, if Yeshiva (they don't play on Saturday, the Jewish Sabbath) made the tournament (ok, not going to' happen, I know, but it COULD) and was placed in a bracket with a team that did not play on Sunday?  Friday-Monday games?  For my money, if your faith is strong enough that you won't play when the rest of the field is playing, you take a forfeit and be happy that you stayed true to your faith.

A related observation.  I once saw the coaches of a-not-to-be-named-school-that-does-not-play-on-Sundays scouting the upcoming opposition on the Sunday before their match.

Well, Yeshiva could get around it if they played on Saturday night after the sun went down (when the Sabbath ends.) However, if they went to the Final Four, then there could be real trouble.

[CovensCorner]

I actually think the UAA is going to have their best year in the NCAA's this year in the early rounds.

4 teams all with a legit chance to make the Sweet 16.

CMU can dispatch of Gordon and F&M

Brandies can handle Thomas and Stevens

Chicago can upset Thomas More and Kenyon.

Wash U can certainly almost walk into the sweet 16 with wins over Millsaps and Depauw.

Chicago has the toughest road but I believe they are a better team than Wash U and CMU.


The question is can 1 of them get to the Final 4? The answer is NO

All three of the favorites for the Amherst pod; Amherst, Trinity, and Brandeis (A UAA Team) are known for their unsuccessful post seasons despite having impressive regular seasons. 

-Amherst's failure to reach the final four;
-Trinity's failure to make a deep run in the final four; and
-Brandeis, a UAA still can not crack the final four.

Good news for one of these teams is they may end their drought.

[NEsoccerfan]

I actually think the UAA is going to have their best year in the NCAA's this year in the early rounds.

4 teams all with a legit chance to make the Sweet 16.

CMU can dispatch of Gordon and F&M

Brandies can handle Thomas and Stevens

Chicago can upset Thomas More and Kenyon.

Wash U can certainly almost walk into the sweet 16 with wins over Millsaps and Depauw.

Chicago has the toughest road but I believe they are a better team than Wash U and CMU.


The question is can 1 of them get to the Final 4? The answer is NO

All three of the favorites for the Amherst pod; Amherst, Trinity, and Brandeis (A UAA Team) are known for their unsuccessful post seasons despite having impressive regular seasons. 

-Amherst's failure to reach the final four;
-Trinity's failure to make a deep run in the final four; and
-Brandeis, a UAA still can not crack the final four.

Good news for one of these teams is they may end their drought.

I really don't think its fair to say that Brandeis is "known for their unsuccessful post season". Lets be clear, prior to 2012 Brandeis had not been in the tournament for decades. So to go through the last 3 years in the tournament:

2012: Lost to williams in the sweet 16
Brandeis: 18-3-1; #10 in the final d3 rankings; #3 in the final NE rankings
Williams: 16-2-4; #4 in the final d3 rankings; #2 in the final NE rankings
Overall: Williams was the "favorite" so I would not consider 2012 an unsuccessful post season

2013: Lost to Williams in the sweet 16
Brandeis: 14-4-1; #20 in the final d3 rankings; #2 in the final NE rankings
Williams: 12-6-0; RV in the final d3; #5 in the final NE rankings
Overall: Tough to say who was the favorite in this matchup, you could possibly say Brandeis, but given that both teams had nearly the same amount of blemishes and the game was played on a neutral field, I would say this game was a pickem' and I would not consider 2013 an unsuccessful post season

2014: lost to Oneonta state in the elite 8
Brandeis: 17-2-0; #5 in the final d3 ranking
Oneonta state: 18-0-02; #3 in the final d3 ranking
Overall: Oneonta was the "favorite" in terms of their ranking, their record; and their receipt of the bye in the quadrant, so I would not consider 2014 an unsuccessful post season

Taking a look at these last 3 years after decades of absence from the tournament, and i could hardly say that Brandeis is "known for their unsuccesful post season". They are 6-0 in the last 3 years hosting when hosting the first 2 rounds, and have never truly been "upset". Sure, teams must win games they are not a favorite in in order to go as deep in the tournament as possible, but just because they failed to do so the last 3 years does not mean that they have developed a reputation for being unsuccessful. Instead, I would say that they met all realistic expectations for those 3 years, and would like to see them build on their success in the years to come.

[CovensCorner]

I actually think the UAA is going to have their best year in the NCAA's this year in the early rounds.

4 teams all with a legit chance to make the Sweet 16.

CMU can dispatch of Gordon and F&M

Brandies can handle Thomas and Stevens

Chicago can upset Thomas More and Kenyon.

Wash U can certainly almost walk into the sweet 16 with wins over Millsaps and Depauw.

Chicago has the toughest road but I believe they are a better team than Wash U and CMU.


The question is can 1 of them get to the Final 4? The answer is NO

All three of the favorites for the Amherst pod; Amherst, Trinity, and Brandeis (A UAA Team) are known for their unsuccessful post seasons despite having impressive regular seasons. 

-Amherst's failure to reach the final four;
-Trinity's failure to make a deep run in the final four; and
-Brandeis, a UAA still can not crack the final four.

Good news for one of these teams is they may end their drought.

I really don't think its fair to say that Brandeis is "known for their unsuccessful post season". Lets be clear, prior to 2012 Brandeis had not been in the tournament for decades. So to go through the last 3 years in the tournament:

2012: Lost to williams in the sweet 16
Brandeis: 18-3-1; #10 in the final d3 rankings; #3 in the final NE rankings
Williams: 16-2-4; #4 in the final d3 rankings; #2 in the final NE rankings
Overall: Williams was the "favorite" so I would not consider 2012 an unsuccessful post season

2013: Lost to Williams in the sweet 16
Brandeis: 14-4-1; #20 in the final d3 rankings; #2 in the final NE rankings
Williams: 12-6-0; RV in the final d3; #5 in the final NE rankings
Overall: Tough to say who was the favorite in this matchup, you could possibly say Brandeis, but given that both teams had nearly the same amount of blemishes and the game was played on a neutral field, I would say this game was a pickem' and I would not consider 2013 an unsuccessful post season

2014: lost to Oneonta state in the elite 8
Brandeis: 17-2-0; #5 in the final d3 ranking
Oneonta state: 18-0-02; #3 in the final d3 ranking
Overall: Oneonta was the "favorite" in terms of their ranking, their record; and their receipt of the bye in the quadrant, so I would not consider 2014 an unsuccessful post season

Taking a look at these last 3 years after decades of absence from the tournament, and i could hardly say that Brandeis is "known for their unsuccesful post season". They are 6-0 in the last 3 years hosting when hosting the first 2 rounds, and have never truly been "upset". Sure, teams must win games they are not a favorite in in order to go as deep in the tournament as possible, but just because they failed to do so the last 3 years does not mean that they have developed a reputation for being unsuccessful. Instead, I would say that they met all realistic expectations for those 3 years, and would like to see them build on their success in the years to come.

The inclusion of Brandeis was not for their lack of tournament success but rather the lack of success among UAA teams and failure to reach the final four.  I tried to emphasis the UAA in my post.

[Footy23]

Can someone just appease this "wingnut" and say LORAS WILL LOSE and they have the BEST CHANCE TO LOSE over anybody.

With no logic to back up this statement.

The logic is in the fact that you've already lost to two teams in your pod.
I'm not saying you're certain to lose, just don't understand some individuals anointing them before a ball is kicked.
I'd have a better chance of subscribing to lgotb's stance on MSU than mr right's idea of Loras as untouchable favorite.

This will be an interesting tourney for the almighty Duhawks. The squad easily has the potential  to make it to Kansas City, but that potential has not been seen except a couple times this season (Luther, Wheaton?, Chicago?) and we have seen the downside as well. But hey, who cares....it is the "best time of the year" and when was the last time a team beat the Duhawks twice in a season???  When the Duhawks make it to KC, school will be postponed and all of Duhawk Nation will be on hand after making the "short" commute.

[pad3fan]

The NCAA scheduling committee has done it again. Another year of religious exceptions putting games on school days to avoid Sundays. 

Why should some kids have to miss school so other kids don't have to miss church? Strange precedent for the NCAA to set...

That is an absolutely valid point.  The logic escapes me.  What would happen, say, if Yeshiva (they don't play on Saturday, the Jewish Sabbath) made the tournament (ok, not going to' happen, I know, but it COULD) and was placed in a bracket with a team that did not play on Sunday?  Friday-Monday games?  For my money, if your faith is strong enough that you won't play when the rest of the field is playing, you take a forfeit and be happy that you stayed true to your faith.

A related observation.  I once saw the coaches of a-not-to-be-named-school-that-does-not-play-on-Sundays scouting the upcoming opposition on the Sunday before their match.

Well, Yeshiva could get around it if they played on Saturday night after the sun went down (when the Sabbath ends.) However, if they went to the Final Four, then there could be real trouble.

If we are so worried about these players missing classes, maybe all weekday games and out of town" trips" during the season should be done away with too. If a student or team doesn't feel that they can get their academic work done, maybe they should just not play or they should  forfeit the game and be true to their academic pursuit.

[Nutmeg]

LGOTB, nice work on the overnight shift.

I'm going to agree and disagree with your analysis, although that seems crazy while you're in the middle of your hot streak, and I'll probably see you re-posting this post in about 11 days as you bask in celebration of yet another predictions victory.

On the MSU pod, I won't argue with you much on the weakest SoS claim as the pod does have wild variability, BUT, there is still Tufts at .623, Chicago at .599, OWU at .597, MSU at .584, CMU at .579, and F&M at .571.  Then there are Kenyon, Calvin, and TMC at the low end where IMHO their SoS does not parallel the challenge that they present.  I would agree as a general statement that MSU may have too much firepower for the other teams in this field, and in my view MSU talent-wise is one of the top 2-3 teams in the country with as good an opportunity as anyone to win the national title.  Here's the problem.  If Tufts beats Salisbury (not a given with all the questions around the Jumbos but I think they'll find a way to get out of that one alive), MSU will be facing one of the few teams that can match them pound-for-pound and that will go into the game fully expecting to prevail.  I can't imagine a more difficult 2nd round opponent for MSU.  That is a 50/50 game IMO, and if Tufts gets ahead I think MSU will be in real trouble as the pressure in the game mounts.  If I'm MSU, I'd rather play any other team in the pod than Tufts and they could get them 2nd round. 

I think I know what you mean about Kenyon and Calvin being strong untested programs, but is that really true?  Starting with Calvin you're talking about a program that is right there on the heels of Messiah and Wheaton, and who was in the national title game in 2011.  I don't care who they've played, the Knights are 20-0-1 with 76 GF and 4 GA.  If Calvin somehow survives OWU and then [F&M/CMU, etc] they will be playing well and a legitimate challenge....probably not enough to beat MSU but no cakewalk by any means.  In the Sweet 16, MSU IMO would have too much for either TMC or Chicago, although TMC would have no fear and fights for a win like almost no team I've ever seen.  I'll put it this way....underestimate TMC at your own risk.  If MSU gets Kenyon I think the Lords are the second most difficult foe in the whole pod for them (after Tufts).  Kenyon has played in a bunch of high-intensity, high pressure games over the past three years, and Kenyon probably prefers being in a bit more of an underdog role as long as they are playing anyone who doesn't have OWU on its jersey.  I would expect a MSU-Kenyon game to be very similar to the Messiah-Kenyon game of 2013, with the difference being that Kenyon would go in fully expecting to win and much closer to even from a talent standpoint.  That would be another great game, just as I think Tufts-Kenyon would be a very intriguing match-up.  The winner of the projected OWU-Calvin game I'm guessing would be quite happy to see anyone other than MSU on the other side.  And if OWU manages to get to the Elite 8, then just based on their pedigree, confidence, swag, and coaching they would be at a minimum 50/50 odds to advance regardless of who is on the other side.  In short, MSU I agree goes in as a favorite, but only a slight favorite for me, as there are at least two and probably three games they definitely would have a strong risk of losing.

I disagree that Haverford faces the toughest road.  If it's W&L I think the Generals will play well and give a good account of themselves, but based on watching them against Messiah I believe Haverford is just too strong.  SLU would certainly be a test, and SLU reminds me of last year's OWU team....not necessarily one of the best SLU squads in recent memory but good enough and with enough pedigree to get to Kansas City.  This would be another very intriguing game...that will NOT be played in Canton, NY, and compared to the challenges other top teams could face in the Sweet 16, SLU is not an unreasonably difficult challenge for the 'Fords at that stage.  On the other side, Haverford wouldn't have to play ALL of those teams you listed....just one.  They have too much for Plattsburgh/Bowdoin, although Bowdoin certainly could keep the game tight and give themselves a chance.  And the 'Fords are already battle-tested for the likes of Oneonta and RUC.  A couple of teams in this pod could beat Haverford, but I certainly don't see a team that they couldn't beat.

In the Loras pod, I feel the same way about the Duhawks as I do SLU this year and OWU last year, but even stronger...not one of Loras' all-time most talented teams but still with an excellent opportunity here.  Especially if they stay in the Rock Bowl, I don't see a team outside of Wheaton that can take them out.  Now someone is going to come in and say DePauw already beat them once, and I'm telling you DePauw would have a 10% chance of beating them again.  Not going to happen.  And Wheaton has got to get to the Elite 8 to have a shot at Loras, and that may be less than a 50/50 proposition in itself.  Are we going to see the Thunder team that could run the table from here on out, or the one that can fail to prevail against a team that was something like 4-10-3?

Agree with you 95% on Amherst.  The one team that could beat them, even if outshot and outplayed, is Brandeis, and in that regard I think it's no accident that Serpone reportedly was just scouting the Judges.  Brandeis is battle-tested and possesses the right mentality to knock off Amherst (and relish doing so).  The challenge for Brandeis will be getting to that game, as their pattern of 1-0 games suggests one of those could eventually go the wrong way on them and Trinity/Whitworth/Redlands would present Brandeis with a challenge that would not be so difficult for the Lord Jeffs.

[Just realized I had a complete amnestic episode in failing to mention F&M/Babson and CMU/Gordon.  Just more evidence that the MSU pod is no joke.  Corrected an error above.]

Nice!

[swibbles]

The NCAA scheduling committee has done it again. Another year of religious exceptions putting games on school days to avoid Sundays. 

Why should some kids have to miss school so other kids don't have to miss church? Strange precedent for the NCAA to set...

That is an absolutely valid point.  The logic escapes me.  What would happen, say, if Yeshiva (they don't play on Saturday, the Jewish Sabbath) made the tournament (ok, not going to' happen, I know, but it COULD) and was placed in a bracket with a team that did not play on Sunday?  Friday-Monday games?  For my money, if your faith is strong enough that you won't play when the rest of the field is playing, you take a forfeit and be happy that you stayed true to your faith.

A related observation.  I once saw the coaches of a-not-to-be-named-school-that-does-not-play-on-Sundays scouting the upcoming opposition on the Sunday before their match.

Well, Yeshiva could get around it if they played on Saturday night after the sun went down (when the Sabbath ends.) However, if they went to the Final Four, then there could be real trouble.

If we are so worried about these players missing classes, maybe all weekday games and out of town" trips" during the season should be done away with too. If a student or team doesn't feel that they can get their academic work done, maybe they should just not play or they should  forfeit the game and be true to their academic pursuit.

I think you're missing the point.  All student-athletes must sacrifice a good deal of their time in order to participate in their sport - that is a given. The issue I wanted to bring to discussion was that in this specific situation, the missing of class time seems unnecessary and calls into question the NCAA's priorities. I understand that from time to time a student must miss a class in order to participate in his/her sport, it's the fact that they're forced to play on a weekday (and miss out on a day of class) so that another student-athlete can attend church on Sunday that rubs me the wrong way.

[jknezek]

I think you're missing the point.  All student-athletes must sacrifice a good deal of their time in order to participate in their sport - that is a given. The issue I wanted to bring to discussion was that in this specific situation, the missing of class time seems unnecessary and calls into question the NCAA's priorities. I understand that from time to time a student must miss a class in order to participate in his/her sport, it's the fact that they're forced to play on a weekday (and miss out on a day of class) so that another student-athlete can attend church on Sunday that rubs me the wrong way.

Been this way for a long time. But if it was me, I'd agree with you.

[Mr.Right]

I actually think the UAA is going to have their best year in the NCAA's this year in the early rounds.

4 teams all with a legit chance to make the Sweet 16.

CMU can dispatch of Gordon and F&M

Brandies can handle Thomas and Stevens

Chicago can upset Thomas More and Kenyon.

Wash U can certainly almost walk into the sweet 16 with wins over Millsaps and Depauw.

Chicago has the toughest road but I believe they are a better team than Wash U and CMU.


The question is can 1 of them get to the Final 4? The answer is NO

The Thomas coach said that Tre Ming is "one of the top three players in Division III." Haven't seen much of him, what do you think Mr.Right? (I'm guessing that was a generous accolade, though to be fair the guy does have 6 goals and 20 assists.)

This is interesting. Where did you read he said that. The Thomas coach does not have a good reputation with his peers I can tell you that without getting into specifics. When it comes to Tre Ming its on the day. If he is fired up and playing his absolute best HE WILL BE the best player on the field against Brandeis and that is saying something. Tre Ming has that much skill and is a great technical player. His issue is he is a massive HEADCASE. If Brandeis whacks him a few times and frustrates him enough it will take him completely out of his game. If Brandeis gives him space and allows him time this will just build his confidence. Thomas does have some nice complimentary pieces around him for a side from such a weak conference.  Brandeis will and should be concerned by this Thomas side which has something to prove IMO. They need to take this game seriously and get a quick goal or 2 and they will bury Thomas. However, Tre Ming does have the talent to score a goal or create a goal out of nothing. This can get very nervy for Brandeis especially the longer Thomas can stay in this game.

[blooter442]

This is interesting. Where did you read he said that. The Thomas coach does not have a good reputation with his peers I can tell you that without getting into specifics. When it comes to Tre Ming its on the day. If he is fired up and playing his absolute best HE WILL BE the best player on the field against Brandeis and that is saying something. Tre Ming has that much skill and is a great technical player. His issue is he is a massive HEADCASE. If Brandeis whacks him a few times and frustrates him enough it will take him completely out of his game. If Brandeis gives him space and allows him time this will just build his confidence. Thomas does have some nice complimentary pieces around him for a side from such a weak conference.  Brandeis will and should be concerned by this Thomas side which has something to prove IMO. They need to take this game seriously and get a quick goal or 2 and they will bury Thomas. However, Tre Ming does have the talent to score a goal or create a goal out of nothing. This can get very nervy for Brandeis especially the longer Thomas can stay in this game.

There was an article in Thomas' local Waterville paper about them playing Brandeis. From recently, so you could go find it if you wanted. Interesting piece.

I agree that the Judges will take Thomas seriously, they've got some dangerous threats, but I also remember when Brandeis had to play Roger Williams and they completely took All-American Trevor Hoxsie out of the game by putting two center backs on him and shutting off his supply from midfield by playing 3 in the center and having the wing backs pressing to keep their outside backs from getting forward. Coven and Margolis are excellent at scouting opposing players and they'll know all about Ming, as well as LaBrie and Nicholas, and my guess is that they'll have a center mid man-mark Ming and ensure that Lanahan and Robinson stay home to combat their forwards. They'll also probably use their aggressive style of play and pressing to throw Ming out of his rhythm. The big issue with Thomas is that they seem to let up a ton of goals, and even with Brandeis' inconsistent offense I think the Judges will fancy their chances. That said, Thomas will likely come out high energy, so it's on Brandeis to make sure they do things right and get the job done.

[Mr.Right]

Thomas I saw only once all season against Colby who they defeated. They are used to turf and night games. They are like a poor man's UMASS Boston. Some flair in midfield and up top but a total dysfunction in the back and in goal. Goalies are goalies though and all it takes is the GK to "have a good day" to frustrate Brandeis. Sometimes the more shots he sees the more confident he gets and that confidence can be contagious throughout the team. I remember them in 2012 in the NCAA's against Williams in Williamstown during the day and on grass against a SOLID Williams side. Williams out shot them 5:1 but were frustrated because they kind of played down to their level. This is a totally different Thomas side but I imagine they will look similar. The one thing I do remember is this Thomas side lacks SIZE and that stuck out to me when they played Colby.

[PaulNewman]

Thomas I saw only once all season against Colby who they defeated. They are used to turf and night games. They are like a poor man's UMASS Boston. Some flair in midfield and up top but a total dysfunction in the back and in goal. Goalies are goalies though and all it takes is the GK to "have a good day" to frustrate Brandeis. Sometimes the more shots he sees the more confident he gets and that confidence can be contagious throughout the team. I remember them in 2012 in the NCAA's against Williams in Williamstown during the day and on grass against a SOLID Williams side. Williams out shot them 5:1 but were frustrated because they kind of played down to their level. This is a totally different Thomas side but I imagine they will look similar. The one thing I do remember is this Thomas side lacks SIZE and that stuck out to me when they played Colby.

I give you props, Mr.Right.  You have a quick mind.  "Poor man's UMass-Bos" is perfect.  I watched that same game Thomas vs Colby.

[Letthekidsplay59]

The NCAA scheduling committee has done it again. Another year of religious exceptions putting games on school days to avoid Sundays. 

Why should some kids have to miss school so other kids don't have to miss church? Strange precedent for the NCAA to set...

That is an absolutely valid point.  The logic escapes me.  What would happen, say, if Yeshiva (they don't play on Saturday, the Jewish Sabbath) made the tournament (ok, not going to' happen, I know, but it COULD) and was placed in a bracket with a team that did not play on Sunday?  Friday-Monday games?  For my money, if your faith is strong enough that you won't play when the rest of the field is playing, you take a forfeit and be happy that you stayed true to your faith.

A related observation.  I once saw the coaches of a-not-to-be-named-school-that-does-not-play-on-Sundays scouting the upcoming opposition on the Sunday before their match.

Well, Yeshiva could get around it if they played on Saturday night after the sun went down (when the Sabbath ends.) However, if they went to the Final Four, then there could be real trouble.

If we are so worried about these players missing classes, maybe all weekday games and out of town" trips" during the season should be done away with too. If a student or team doesn't feel that they can get their academic work done, maybe they should just not play or they should  forfeit the game and be true to their academic pursuit.

I think you're missing the point.  All student-athletes must sacrifice a good deal of their time in order to participate in their sport - that is a given. The issue I wanted to bring to discussion was that in this specific situation, the missing of class time seems unnecessary and calls into question the NCAA's priorities. I understand that from time to time a student must miss a class in order to participate in his/her sport, it's the fact that they're forced to play on a weekday (and miss out on a day of class) so that another student-athlete can attend church on Sunday that rubs me the wrong way.

Does the NCAA do the scheduling or is it up to the schools to negotiate play dates/times? Don't understand why either would want to send the message that school is less important, just asking the questoin....