2015 NCAA TOURNAMENT THREAD

[Part_Bart]

I'm going to take up for my Loras friend here.

Most of us are very aware of how hard it is to make even one Final Four, let alone win one.  I'm amazed at how teams can have stellar seasons and yet the focus invariably is on how they failed or didn't "win it all."  There's some luck that plays into many of these games where one bounce of the ball or one scrum off a corner in OT or whatever decides an outcome.  Did Haverford have a failed season?

Over the last decade, Loras consistently has had stellar seasons year after year.  For me, they clearly have been the #2 program in the country over the past decade.  You can perhaps make a case for OWU.  Perhaps a case for Amherst.  But no program outside of Messiah has made more Final Fours in the last 7-8 years.

I find the sentiment of "that's nice but let us know when you when a title" more than a little ridiculous.

Agreeing here. We all love to love the winner: very American.
But whomever said that 'second place is the first loser' fails to see the bigger picture.  It is true a team's stated goal is about winning it all, but a program's success is about creating the opportunity for each team it fields to win. Every team in the round of 16 comes from an amazing program.  Another 30 programs (in and out of the NCAA) can consistently field very strong teams.  WOW!

By the round of 16 I ache more for the losers than I cheer for the winners -- their goal is dashed. For the seniors, their career ends in a loss. OUCH! MOST (not all) games hinge on a few minutes of brilliance on the part of one team or player, and a mistake by the other.  My favorite remaining team is Oneonta, but if they lose, its still been ANOTHER amazing season by them, and the program will reload and push again. 

The FUN part of not playing is to sort though options, match-ups and plans -- and perhaps to rib others for their passions while knowing that the last four standing are all amazing teams.  Congrats to the players and their coaches (and the guy who drives their team bus and has to listen to the crap music these kids like now-a-days...

[Brother Flounder]

I'm going to take up for my Loras friend here.

Most of us are very aware of how hard it is to make even one Final Four, let alone win one.  I'm amazed at how teams can have stellar seasons and yet the focus invariably is on how they failed or didn't "win it all."  There's some luck that plays into many of these games where one bounce of the ball or one scrum off a corner in OT or whatever decides an outcome.  Did Haverford have a failed season?

Over the last decade, Loras consistently has had stellar seasons year after year.  For me, they clearly have been the #2 program in the country over the past decade.  You can perhaps make a case for OWU.  Perhaps a case for Amherst.  But no program outside of Messiah has made more Final Fours in the last 7-8 years.

I find the sentiment of "that's nice but let us know when you when a title" more than a little ridiculous.

Agreeing here. We all love to love the winner: very American.
But whomever said that 'second place is the first loser' fails to see the bigger picture.  It is true a team's stated goal is about winning it all, but a program's success is about creating the opportunity for each team it fields to win. Every team in the round of 16 comes from an amazing program.  Another 30 programs (in and out of the NCAA) can consistently field very strong teams.  WOW!

By the round of 16 I ache more for the losers than I cheer for the winners -- their goal is dashed. For the seniors, their career ends in a loss. OUCH! MOST (not all) games hinge on a few minutes of brilliance on the part of one team or player, and a mistake by the other.  My favorite remaining team is Oneonta, but if they lose, its still been ANOTHER amazing season by them, and the program will reload and push again. 

The FUN part of not playing is to sort though options, match-ups and plans -- and perhaps to rib others for their passions while knowing that the last four standing are all amazing teams.  Congrats to the players and their coaches (and the guy who drives their team bus and has to listen to the crap music these kids like now-a-days...

Way to put it Bart.... That's why Tennessee Jed (is he still alive) provides his homemade moonshine!

[Saint of Old]

Nobody doubts Loras' domination in the last 10 years Kickin....sheesh. Just remember, there are still two games left in their season. Making it as far as they do consistently is no doubt impressive, nobody said it wasn't. But until they hoist that trophy in the air and bring it back to Dubuque, getting that far won't mean as much. They're the team that almost made it. The team that was almost good enough, but couldn't get over that hump.

Only a top D3 team can host  a sectional on their home field.
Only a top D3 team can dance ten straight years and consistently be a threat for final 4.

There is a big difference though between a top D3 team and a team that has won a National Championship.

All of the final four teams have been very impressive for a long time, but the one that wins will automatically gain more respect as a program over the next three.

Good luck to all the teams that are left. I am echoing an earlier sentiment, but any one of the four can win this whole thing I think.

[backyarddawg]

How would Loras do if they got shipped out the Mid-West Region?  When is the last time they beat a team from the Mid-Atlantic or New England?

I tried looking up their schedules but it stops at 2009:

2014: Loss Trinity Sweet 16
2013: Loss RUC Final 4
2012: Loss Messiah Final 4
2011: Loss Calvin Round of 32
2010: Loss UW Oshkosh Round of 32
2009: Loss Dominican Sweet 16

[Footy23]

2008 Final Four run: Greenville W 2-0, Dominican W 1-0, Augsburg W 2-1, Ohio Northern W 4-1, Messiah L 3-0

2007 Final Four run: Wheaton W 1-0, NC Wesleyan W 2-1, Redlands W 3-1, Middlebury T 0-0 lost in pks

[firstplaceloser]

How would Loras do if they got shipped out the Mid-West Region?  When is the last time they beat a team from the Mid-Atlantic or New England?

I tried looking up their schedules but it stops at 2009:

2014: Loss Trinity Sweet 16
2013: Loss RUC Final 4
2012: Loss Messiah Final 4
2011: Loss Calvin Round of 32
2010: Loss UW Oshkosh Round of 32
2009: Loss Dominican Sweet 16

very interesting

[PaulNewman]

Nobody doubts Loras' domination in the last 10 years Kickin....sheesh. Just remember, there are still two games left in their season. Making it as far as they do consistently is no doubt impressive, nobody said it wasn't. But until they hoist that trophy in the air and bring it back to Dubuque, getting that far won't mean as much. They're the team that almost made it. The team that was almost good enough, but couldn't get over that hump.

Only a top D3 team can host  a sectional on their home field.
Only a top D3 team can dance ten straight years and consistently be a threat for final 4.

There is a big difference though between a top D3 team and a team that has won a National Championship.

All of the final four teams have been very impressive for a long time, but the one that wins will automatically gain more respect as a program over the next three.

Good luck to all the teams that are left. I am echoing an earlier sentiment, but any one of the four can win this whole thing I think.

I respect your opinion (and those of others) but I just disagree, or maybe we are talking about slightly different things.

I don't see how anyone could even argue with Loras being #2 over the last 8 years since during that span no one else after Messiah comes close to 5 Final Fours.  Yes, there are different levels of hurdles, and winning a national title is one of them.  But getting to Final Fours is also a huge one.  Getting to the Elite 8 is one.  Getting to the Sweet 16 is another (DePauw and St. Olaf finally made it in their 7th attempt).  Even OWU and Wheaton for all of their decades of being premier programs have only won the title twice.  OWU's record of 38 NCAA appearances and the number of times they have been a viable title contender (Sweet 16s and better) for me are far more impressive than the fact that they have won two titles.  Would you argue that Tufts should be ranked higher as a program over the last 8 years solely on the basis of winning a national title when the overall resume doesn't even come within shouting distance of Loras?  And the suggestion that Loras owes their success to having weaker sectionals every year just reeks of East Coast bias.  Was Wheaton an easier Elite 8 opponent than the opponents in the other sectionals?   And if there was something to that, you would expect that Loras would get blown out every time they go to the Final Four.  Losing in PKs and twice in OT is far from that.  I actually thought Trinity's two wins over Brandeis and double OT loss to Amherst on Amherst's home field were strong evidence that Colorado College should have been in the field.  And the West got screwed by putting Trinity, Whitworth and Redlands together in the 1st and 2nd round so that only one of them had a chance to progress to the Sweet 16.

[Soccer77]

Was at the Loras/Wheaton game in person, here are my thoughts:

First half felt like Wheaton had an extra man on the field and Loras was chasing. Wheaton connected the ball beautiful and danced around the Loras midfield. With that being said, Loras still really had the only two chances in the first half.

Second half, the swarm was in full effect. Loras started to win 50/50's and began flying at Wheaton's back line. Loras scored a well crafted header off a set piece and it felt like the game was about to be wrapped up. Then Hollingsworth decided to take the whole Duhawk's team on by himself and set up Golz for his last name. Wheaton had another chance with the Hollingsworth, Borge, Golz combo but it sailed wide. Loras had a couple good opportunities but came up short.

Overtime went mostly to the Duhawks. Mike Gordon found himself on a break away in the final minutes and was stuffed. But this lead to the eventual goal off the corner.

Overall takeaways, Wheaton was the much more talented possession team.  Could connect 8 1-2's in a row, but couldn't get a real good look on goal. Loras played their typical kick-ball game, but it exposed the weary back line of Wheaton. The combination of speed and playing direct was the eventual collapse of Wheaton. I do think that this Wheaton team was not quite the same as last years, but still have some true ballers on their team. I think Hollingsworth is one of the best in D3 soccer. This Loras team doesn't have a Cavers/Figura/Pizzello, but they have a bunch of players that have stepped up collectively. I would wager the bet that either of the 2012/2013 Loras teams would beat this team however.

I would take that bet, there is one X factor on 2012/2013 and 2015 Loras teams. #3 this cat is the one that creates opportunities with his constant pressure on the back lines. He was on all three of these teams and all tournament 2013 with Cavers. Without #3 like last year opportunities were hard to come by for the Loras attack.

[firstplaceloser]

Congrats to loras as you are Arsenal of division 3 soccer.

[D3soccerwatcher]

The number of championship stars on your crest matters...a lot!  Precisely because it is so very hard to do.  I contend that there isn't one player on any of these final 4 teams that agrees that it's great to just make a deep run.  They all want to win the championship...period. 

Loras might look at their season if they don't win it all or even if they make it to their first ever championship final and say "Wow!  We had a successful season!"  But if they do say that, that's why they probably won't win it the next time around.  A true champion program just wouldn't say that.  If they don't win it all, it's not success.  Just ask the players and alumni from the greatest program(s)...they will tell you.

Also kinda hard for me to wrap my mind around the notion that Loras is the absolute definitive #2 program in the past decade.  Yes they made five Final 4's and lost every one of those games...never making it to the top 2 (Championship Final) in the 40 year history of the NCAA D3 national tournament.  If winning a Final 4 game were as "random" as some have suggested...the odds of losing five Final 4 games in a row is 3.1%.  And statisticians understand that at odds that low it likely isn't random anymore (at p=.05), and its possible there is something else at play that starts to take the "randomness" out of the equation (maybe easy sectional play, psychological, better competition, system of play that can't win at the higher levels, it could be any number of things).  Or maybe it is random chance.  But with every Final 4 loss in a row, it is more and more statistically likely that there is something other then "randomness" at play.

If given the choice, I think Loras would trade all of those Final 4's for one Championship...and likely do it unblinkingly. 

Maybe this will be the year they finally get to the Final and ultimately hoist the Championship trophy...maybe.

As a point of comparison, there's a D3 Field Hockey program who has been to the NCAA Championship Final 7 times...and lost 7 times.  As absolutely brutal as it seems (and it is brutal and unfair), no one really cares. 

Championships matter.

[firstplaceloser]

The number of championship stars on your crest matters...a lot!  Precisely because it is so very hard to do.  I contend that there isn't one player on any of these final 4 teams that agrees that it's great to just make a deep run.  They all want to win the championship...period. 

Loras might look at their season if they don't win it all or even if they make it to their first ever championship final and say "Wow!  We had a successful season!"  But if they do say that, that's why they probably won't win it the next time around.  A true champion program just wouldn't say that.  If they don't win it all, it's not success.  Just ask the players and alumni from the greatest program(s)...they will tell you.

Also kinda hard for me to wrap my mind around the notion that Loras is the absolute definitive #2 program in the past decade.  Yes they made five Final 4's and lost every one of those games...never making it to the top 2 (Championship Final) in the 40 year history of the NCAA D3 national tournament.  If winning a Final 4 game were as "random" as some have suggested...the odds of losing five Final 4 games in a row is 3.1%.  And statisticians understand that at odds that low it likely isn't random anymore (at p=.05), and its possible there is something else at play that starts to take the "randomness" out of the equation (maybe easy sectional play, psychological, better competition, system of play that can't win at the higher levels, it could be any number of things).  Or maybe it is random chance.  But with every Final 4 loss in a row, it is more and more statistically likely that there is something other then "randomness" at play.

If given the choice, I think Loras would trade all of those Final 4's for one Championship...and likely do it unblinkingly. 

Maybe this will be the year they finally get to the Final and ultimately hoist the Championship trophy...maybe.

As a point of comparison, there's a D3 Field Hockey program who has been to the NCAA Championship Final 7 times...and lost 7 times.  As absolutely brutal as it seems (and it is brutal and unfair), no one really cares. 

Championships matter.

it's about time someone makes some sense on this matter. I tip my hat to you sir

[Shooter McGavin]

The number of championship stars on your crest matters...a lot!  Precisely because it is so very hard to do.  I contend that there isn't one player on any of these final 4 teams that agrees that it's great to just make a deep run.  They all want to win the championship...period. 

Loras might look at their season if they don't win it all or even if they make it to their first ever championship final and say "Wow!  We had a successful season!"  But if they do say that, that's why they probably won't win it the next time around.  A true champion program just wouldn't say that.  If they don't win it all, it's not success.  Just ask the players and alumni from the greatest program(s)...they will tell you.

Also kinda hard for me to wrap my mind around the notion that Loras is the absolute definitive #2 program in the past decade.  Yes they made five Final 4's and lost every one of those games...never making it to the top 2 (Championship Final) in the 40 year history of the NCAA D3 national tournament.  If winning a Final 4 game were as "random" as some have suggested...the odds of losing five Final 4 games in a row is 3.1%.  And statisticians understand that at odds that low it likely isn't random anymore (at p=.05), and its possible there is something else at play that starts to take the "randomness" out of the equation (maybe easy sectional play, psychological, better competition, system of play that can't win at the higher levels, it could be any number of things).  Or maybe it is random chance.  But with every Final 4 loss in a row, it is more and more statistically likely that there is something other then "randomness" at play.

If given the choice, I think Loras would trade all of those Final 4's for one Championship...and likely do it unblinkingly. 

Maybe this will be the year they finally get to the Final and ultimately hoist the Championship trophy...maybe.

As a point of comparison, there's a D3 Field Hockey program who has been to the NCAA Championship Final 7 times...and lost 7 times.  As absolutely brutal as it seems (and it is brutal and unfair), no one really cares. 

Championships matter.

I agree with most of what you are saying here but to say not winning a championship means it was a failure is a stretch. If Messiah would have made the tournament this season and say lost in the Sweet 16 I don't think that would have been regarded as a "failure." Even last year's loss to Tufts wasn't a"failure." It sucks and they might have felt that way at first, but looking back they will see how much they accomplished for the program. I think winning a championship does matter big time which Loras has not been able to achieve yet, but it doesn't make them a bad team or not worthy of recognition.

Look at college basketball for example:

Coach K has been at Duke since 1980(I think) and has 5 NCAA championships in 35 years. That means he wins 1 championship every 7 years. He has been to 12 Final 4's which means he lost more in the Final 4 than he won...does that make him a failure? Does it make him a failure for not winning a championship in his first 10 years at Duke? Or for the drought they had after the 1992 team until 2001? Of course not. Winning is HARD. Messiah is a special breed that we most likely won't see again. I don't think Coach K would consider their teams that lost in the Final 4 as failures. And we shouldn't do the same to Loras either...but they need to get over the hump to be taken seriously in the long run.

Another good example is Tom Izzo. He has been at MSU for 20 years and has 1 championship and 7 Final 4's. No one would consider Tom Izzo a bad coach or his teams failures despite only being 1/20 or 1/7 depending on how you look at it. But the 9 Elite 8's and 13 Sweet 16's and making the tournament 18/20 years is why he and his program is so respected and recognized. So what Loras has accomplished in the last 10 years is wonderful but as I said above they need a championship to be recognized as a "top, top dog" in college soccer.

[PaulNewman]

The number of championship stars on your crest matters...a lot!  Precisely because it is so very hard to do.  I contend that there isn't one player on any of these final 4 teams that agrees that it's great to just make a deep run.  They all want to win the championship...period. 

Loras might look at their season if they don't win it all or even if they make it to their first ever championship final and say "Wow!  We had a successful season!"  But if they do say that, that's why they probably won't win it the next time around.  A true champion program just wouldn't say that.  If they don't win it all, it's not success.  Just ask the players and alumni from the greatest program(s)...they will tell you.

Also kinda hard for me to wrap my mind around the notion that Loras is the absolute definitive #2 program in the past decade.  Yes they made five Final 4's and lost every one of those games...never making it to the top 2 (Championship Final) in the 40 year history of the NCAA D3 national tournament.  If winning a Final 4 game were as "random" as some have suggested...the odds of losing five Final 4 games in a row is 3.1%.  And statisticians understand that at odds that low it likely isn't random anymore (at p=.05), and its possible there is something else at play that starts to take the "randomness" out of the equation (maybe easy sectional play, psychological, better competition, system of play that can't win at the higher levels, it could be any number of things).  Or maybe it is random chance.  But with every Final 4 loss in a row, it is more and more statistically likely that there is something other then "randomness" at play.

If given the choice, I think Loras would trade all of those Final 4's for one Championship...and likely do it unblinkingly. 

Maybe this will be the year they finally get to the Final and ultimately hoist the Championship trophy...maybe.

As a point of comparison, there's a D3 Field Hockey program who has been to the NCAA Championship Final 7 times...and lost 7 times.  As absolutely brutal as it seems (and it is brutal and unfair), no one really cares. 

Championships matter.

I'm curious about the negative karma and the who and why, or maybe that's obvious at this point.

I should not fall for getting engaged in these instances of flawed logic, statistical or otherwise, and other cases of blatant and unapologetic bias.

I never said championships don't matter or that players/coaches aren't devastated when they don't win one or that they wouldn't give up a couple of Final Four appearances for a title.  Those weren't the issues I was addressing.  The issue was about overall program performance over a stretch of time.

Again, if they got to the Final Four and got blown out every time then maybe you could attribute outcomes to one of those other reasons you suggested.  As for statistics, what are the odds of ANY team getting to a Final Four?  Of winning a title?  What are the statistical odds of a team getting to the Final Four 5 times in 8 years?  See how frame of reference impacts the deductions made from "statistics"?  In my personal poll I vote Loras #2.  You can put them and anyone else wherever you like.  Maybe this construction will be more acceptable -- No program other than Messiah has gone to FIVE Final Fours in the last 8-10 years.  Oneonta with 3 in 5 years is knocking on the door.  That's impressive as well, and geez, they even have to go through the East Coast to get there.

[Mr.Right]

Let's not forget Williams....3 Final 4's in 5 years..2009, 2012 and 2013. They also won a NCAA Championship in 1995 and went to the Final in 1993. Another Final 4 in 1998. Someone mentioned Amherst above and that is plain ridiculous. They have 3 Final 4's in their HISTORY. 1997, 2008 and 2015. In 1997 and 2008 they got waxed. Amazingly, I have to agree with D3Soccerwatcher on this one as the point being about Loras or Amherst or Oneonta is they have NOT WON ONE. His point is valid which is as amazing as the Field Hockey team that has been to 7 Finals and lost all of them.

[Brother Flounder]

The number of championship stars on your crest matters...a lot!  Precisely because it is so very hard to do.  I contend that there isn't one player on any of these final 4 teams that agrees that it's great to just make a deep run.  They all want to win the championship...period. 

Loras might look at their season if they don't win it all or even if they make it to their first ever championship final and say "Wow!  We had a successful season!"  But if they do say that, that's why they probably won't win it the next time around.  A true champion program just wouldn't say that.  If they don't win it all, it's not success.  Just ask the players and alumni from the greatest program(s)...they will tell you.

Also kinda hard for me to wrap my mind around the notion that Loras is the absolute definitive #2 program in the past decade.  Yes they made five Final 4's and lost every one of those games...never making it to the top 2 (Championship Final) in the 40 year history of the NCAA D3 national tournament.  If winning a Final 4 game were as "random" as some have suggested...the odds of losing five Final 4 games in a row is 3.1%.  And statisticians understand that at odds that low it likely isn't random anymore (at p=.05), and its possible there is something else at play that starts to take the "randomness" out of the equation (maybe easy sectional play, psychological, better competition, system of play that can't win at the higher levels, it could be any number of things).  Or maybe it is random chance.  But with every Final 4 loss in a row, it is more and more statistically likely that there is something other then "randomness" at play.

If given the choice, I think Loras would trade all of those Final 4's for one Championship...and likely do it unblinkingly. 

Maybe this will be the year they finally get to the Final and ultimately hoist the Championship trophy...maybe.

As a point of comparison, there's a D3 Field Hockey program who has been to the NCAA Championship Final 7 times...and lost 7 times.  As absolutely brutal as it seems (and it is brutal and unfair), no one really cares. 

Championships matter.

I'm curious about the negative karma and the who and why, or maybe that's obvious at this point.

I should not fall for getting engaged in these instances of flawed logic, statistical or otherwise, and other cases of blatant and unapologetic bias.

I never said championships don't matter or that players/coaches aren't devastated when they don't win one or that they wouldn't give up a couple of Final Four appearances for a title.  Those weren't the issues I was addressing.  The issue was about overall program performance over a stretch of time.

Again, if they got to the Final Four and got blown out every time then maybe you could attribute outcomes to one of those other reasons you suggested.  As for statistics, what are the odds of ANY team getting to a Final Four?  Of winning a title?  What are the statistical odds of a team getting to the Final Four 5 times in 8 years?  See how frame of reference impacts the deductions made from "statistics"?  In my personal poll I vote Loras #2.  You can put them and anyone else wherever you like.  Maybe this construction will be more acceptable -- No program other than Messiah has gone to FIVE Final Fours in the last 8-10 years.  Oneonta with 3 in 5 years is knocking on the door.  That's impressive as well, and geez, they even have to go through the East Coast to get there.

Although I hate to admit it, I agreed with your initial post......