Playoffs -- 2015

[K-Mack]

Another option, but be careful not to overly discourage teams from having challenging OOC games.  NCC (just for one example) has already been burned twice in the last four years for overly ambitious scheduling.  I'd like to find a way that encourages scheduling games like NCC/Wesley and NCC/UWP, not potentially making them the 'kiss of death' if you don't win the AQ.

I still don't get what the beef some folks have against who gets in the tournament.  Yes - the WIAC is awesome - whatever.  Bottom line is that if you want a Pool C bid, you kind of have to be able to beat the third best team in a conference - any conference.  Filling out a d3 non conference schedule isn't as easy as picking your opponent out of a catalog and there is only so much creative scheduling one can do to achieve that mythic "credible-but-not-too-tough" schedule.  Besides, we also need to acknowledge that lots of cross-country games like NCC/Wesley- while cool for us - just don't make much sense at this level.  It just costs way too much and for most schools it is an unaffordable luxury.

Agreed, and NCC did not deserve a C this year.  But if they had chosen to beat a Podunk instead of the loss to UWP, and thus been 8-2 (losses only narrowly to Wheaton and Wesley), what would have happened?

My goal (thus far unrealized) is to come up with a system that rewards teams for scheduling tough opponents.  Despite SOS and results vs. RROs, my sense is that the current system penalizes aggressive scheduling unless you are absolutely 'purple-power' quality.

Fair points, Mr. Ypsi, although there are some instances of a strong schedule and a win over someone good working as a reprieve for a team that scheduled tough and lost.

The real measure should be rewards teams for beating tough opponents. That's where the results against regionally ranked opponents should come in to support or otherwise make sense of SoS alone. The ONU selection didn't seem to follow that this year though.

[K-Mack]

A boatload of us are tied for 26th place in the D3Challenge. I guess the Cortland win over Salisbury was the miss for most of us.

I should be impressed with the 25 who predicted the Cortland win (but there were probably 20 Red Dragon faithful playing the Challenge.  :-)  )

I will stick with my Challenge picks.  There are three game where I see the road team having a very good chance to win, UWW, Wesley and TMC.

I missed the ONU win.

I don't do the brackets because I do Triple Take, but so far, that Cortland-Salisbury game is my only miss. Not that I didn't get  lucky on some of the other picks ... but this is when the rubber meets the road to Salem.

[CruFrenzy]

It also includes the 2004 Stagg Bowl participants.

A couple of months ago I added the semifinalists to our playoff history page -- now that the years are beginning to run together for me I needed a quick and easy reference:
http://www.d3football.com/playoffs/index

Pat, any chance the D3 Semi Finals make it to live broadcast this year? I feel like we've been inching closer and closer to getting them on live TV!

[Pat Coleman]

It also includes the 2004 Stagg Bowl participants.

A couple of months ago I added the semifinalists to our playoff history page -- now that the years are beginning to run together for me I needed a quick and easy reference:
http://www.d3football.com/playoffs/index

Pat, any chance the D3 Semi Finals make it to live broadcast this year? I feel like we've been inching closer and closer to getting them on live TV!

I haven't heard anything along those lines and the NCAA still lists them as ESPN3, so I don't know if this will be the year. But if Mount Union and Whitewater play in a semifinal, maybe someone smart would indeed pick that game up.

[wesleydad]

Just for fun, who would host the Wesley/UWW game is they both won.  They are both 3's and the Wesley bracket is the higher seeded bracket, would Wesley host?

[wabndy]

Just for fun, who would host the Wesley/UWW game is they both won.  They are both 3's and the Wesley bracket is the higher seeded bracket, would Wesley host?

The hosting sites for the next round aren't made officially until Sunday morning. I believe the national selection committee briefly reconvenes to make such decisions. In your scenario- and assuming we fall back on the playoff selection criteria and final set of regional rankings, whitewater would be the clear choice to host since their loss was to a much more highly ranked regional opponent (basically Oshkosh vs Salisbury). So yes- having to travel through both Alliance and possibly Whitewater before you even get to Salem is - well - ouch. In the words of Miracle Max: "have fun storming the castle"

[wally_wabash]

It's a good question.  We think Wesley was ranked #1 in the East region and Whitewater was #4 in the West region if we go back to the final regional rankings.  I think the game would wind up at the Perk, but it's not a slam dunk choice.  Wesley has some cards to play there.  Particularly if they have a fresh Purple Raider pelt to show off. 

[smedindy]

Removing the NESCAC, here's how Massey ranks the remaining D3 teams:

1- Mt. Union
2- St. Thomas
3 - Whitewater
4 - Linfield
5 - Wabash
6 - Oshkosh
7 - UMHB
9 - Wesley

(Thomas More is 8th)

Massey predictions:

Mt. Union 44, Wesley 27 - Mt. Union 88% probability
St. Thomas 34, Wabash 19 - St. Thomas 85% probability
Oshkosh 23, Whitewater 22 - 50 / 50 coin flip
Linfield 35, UMHB 31 - Linfield 62% probability

[wesleydad]

Removing the NESCAC, here's how Massey ranks the remaining D3 teams:

1- Mt. Union
2- St. Thomas
3 - Whitewater
4 - Linfield
5 - Wabash
6 - Oshkosh
7 - UMHB
9 - Wesley

(Thomas More is 8th)

Massey predictions:

Mt. Union 44, Wesley 27 - Mt. Union 88% probability
St. Thomas 34, Wabash 19 - St. Thomas 85% probability
Oshkosh 23, Whitewater 22 - 50 / 50 coin flip
Linfield 35, UMHB 31 - Linfield 62% probability

I agree with those, except for Thomas More being ahead of Wesley.  I like the score of the game, flip 1 score the other way and Wesley is within a few to win the game.  One can hope.

[Andy Jamison - Walla Walla Wildcat]

Until shown on the field in this year's playoffs my ranking would be:

MUC
Linfield
UWO
UWW
St Thomas
MHB
Wabash
Wesley

[pg04]

Just because, here are my picks. Maybe some others will also pick.

Wesley 26
Mount Union 52

UW-Whitewater 34
UW - Oshkosh 28

Mary Hardin Baylor 21
Linfield 35

Wabash 27
St. Thomas 31

I'm thinking 3 of the 4 will be good games. I hope this is true!

[MasterJedi]

I'll make some guesses:

UWW 24
UWO 21

UMU 63
Wesley 24

St Thomas 38
Wabash 17

Linfield 35
UMHB 31

[Mr. Ypsi]

Well the quarterfinals were as good as could reasonably be expected.  Two nail-biters (in McMinnville and Oshkosh), a very entertaining game in Alliance (though I doubt many thought the final outcome was ever in real jeopardy), and a game in St. Paul that got WAY more out-of-hand than probably anyone expected (but that apparently no one could watch due to internet provider incompetence).

I'm really looking forward to the semis - I currently have no clue how I will pick either game!

BTW, every humane fan should feel terrible for the UMHB center.  I certainly hope there are no D3 fans as warped as the U of Michigan 'fans' who posted death threats to the punter whose fumble gave MSU a no-time-remaining win a few weeks ago.

[George Thompson]

New thread for the 2015 Playoffs.

Ralph,

1.   Who are the NCAA committee members who decide the playoff games and home teams?   Not names, but who do they represent?

2.   If they are not seeded, why does Mount Union never have to travel?

3.   Who are the NCAA committee members who decide the Regional Rankings?

George
Linfield fan

[Pat Coleman]

New thread for the 2015 Playoffs.

Ralph,

1.   Who are the NCAA committee members who decide the playoff games and home teams?   Not names, but who do they represent?

2.   If they are not seeded, why does Mount Union never have to travel?

3.   Who are the NCAA committee members who decide the Regional Rankings?

George
Linfield fan

About six weeks ago that stuff was all posted -- little late to be sniffing around this now that something has happened you don't like.

By the way, my understanding is nobody on the team is surprised to be traveling. Might be worth taking a page from that book.

The bracket is seeded.