Playoffs -- 2015

[wally_wabash]

I'm a Johnnie fan, and after seeing them manhandle some very good teams this year (4 games). I not only think they will win, I think it won't be that close.

Where do you think Mount Union would finish in the MIAC?  Probably sandwiched between Concordia and Gustavus, no?  Or Gustavus and Bethel?  Tough call. 

I know you were being tongue-in-cheek, but would 2nd be out of the question? Maybe it's just that I recall 2003 when Mt was a prohibitive favorite, and had won their semi-final by something like 60 points.

I suppose we'll find out on Friday, but I'd imagine it'd be pretty safe to say that Mount is better than St John's and Wabash both this year.  Whether they rank above St Thomas is TBD.

Tell it to a Johnnie, man.  Some seem convinced that SJU might be better than everybody except for UST.  It's ridiculous. 

[ExTartanPlayer]

Must be because the committee stacked the deck in favor of Mount again, you know, those cheeky bastards gave Mount all home games against those crummy East teams yet again.  If only they had to play a real team to get to the Stagg Bowl, like Wisconsi-...oh.

[jamtod]

I'm a Johnnie fan, and after seeing them manhandle some very good teams this year (4 games). I not only think they will win, I think it won't be that close.

Where do you think Mount Union would finish in the MIAC?  Probably sandwiched between Concordia and Gustavus, no?  Or Gustavus and Bethel?  Tough call. 

I know you were being tongue-in-cheek, but would 2nd be out of the question? Maybe it's just that I recall 2003 when Mt was a prohibitive favorite, and had won their semi-final by something like 60 points.

I suppose we'll find out on Friday, but I'd imagine it'd be pretty safe to say that Mount is better than St John's and Wabash both this year.  Whether they rank above St Thomas is TBD.

Tell it to a Johnnie, man.  Some seem convinced that SJU might be better than everybody except for UST.  It's ridiculous.

You might be reading into something that I haven't seen on here.  The SJU fans have made a case that they are better than Wabash.  You and the Wabash fans have done the opposite.  Nobody really knows for sure.  As much as it pains me, the SJU fans might be right but it's all speculative.

[art76]

It's so hard to now how either St. Thomas or Mount Union are going to do against each other this year, because they have no common opponents, or even opponents-opponents. For my part, I didn't think too highly of Mount Union, because it was too hard to get a read for what they could really do until they met Whitewater. Because of last week's games we have a better understanding of what each of these teams in the final can do.

From an experience angle, Mount is a winner hands-down. From a dominating o-line point of view, St. Thomas has the edge there. I'm a long time Bethel Alumnus, so I don't have a dog in the fight, as both teams have ended seasons for the Royals over the last 10 to 12 years. I have already mentioned on the MIAC board that I think the Tommies edge this one out because their defence contains the Purple Raiders in a bend but don't break kind of way. I really don't think there'll be a run-away scoring frenzy and neither will I be surprised if both teams are held to less than 35 points a piece.

My sense is that Mount would be the #2 team in the MIAC this year, but Johnnie fans would probably disagree. And of course if Mount wins, then they'd be #1.

[jamtod]

It's so hard to now how either St. Thomas or Mount Union are going to do against each other this year, because they have no common opponents, or even opponents-opponents. For my part, I didn't think too highly of Mount Union, because it was too hard to get a read for what they could really do until they met Whitewater. Because of last week's games we have a better understanding of what each of these teams in the final can do.

From an experience angle, Mount is a winner hands-down. From a dominating o-line point of view, St. Thomas has the edge there. I'm a long time Bethel Alumnus, so I don't have a dog in the fight, as both teams have ended seasons for the Royals over the last 10 to 12 years. I have already mentioned on the MIAC board that I think the Tommies edge this one out because their defence contains the Purple Raiders in a bend but don't break kind of way. I really don't think there'll be a run-away scoring frenzy and neither will I be surprised if both teams are held to less than 35 points a piece.

My sense is that Mount would be the #2 team in the MIAC this year, but Johnnie fans would probably disagree. And of course if Mount wins, then they'd be #1.

St Thomas will really have to put the screws to Mount for me to believe that St John's would be better than them.  I don't see that happening.

[wally_wabash]

Tell it to a Johnnie, man.  Some seem convinced that SJU might be better than everybody except for UST.  It's ridiculous.

You might be reading into something that I haven't seen on here.  The SJU fans have made a case that they are better than Wabash.  You and the Wabash fans have done the opposite.  Nobody really knows for sure.  As much as it pains me, the SJU fans might be right but it's all speculative.

So here's a Johnnie fan telling us that SJU maybe should be in the top 5. 

Maybe St John's? They played the Toms twice. Held them to their second lowest point total so far, and scored more points than anyone else the other time. I'd say that makes them definite Top 10, possibly Top 5. Just looking at point differential (what else do we have?) puts them on par with Linfield.

This reasoning is lunacy.  And the idea that SJU can ride UST's coattails up the rankings is lunacy.  There are plenty of teams here that actually have quality wins that SJU doesn't.  Who you beat matters more than who we think you might beat.  Or at least it should. 

And the idea that St. John's losing a non-competitive game (twice!) by a couple of points less than anybody else lost a non-competitive game to UST is the tiebreak is just dumb.   It's dumb to pretend that 38-19 wasn't 31-7 when the remainder of the game stopped being relevant.  That is not a valid reason for St. John's > Wabash and it is not a valid reason for St. John's to be in the top 5.  And yet, here we are waiting with baited breath to see how UST vs. UMU goes so that we might have an idea of what to do with St. John's.  What to do with St. John's has already been settled. 

[retagent]

I'm a Johnnie fan, and after seeing them manhandle some very good teams this year (4 games). I not only think they will win, I think it won't be that close.

Where do you think Mount Union would finish in the MIAC?  Probably sandwiched between Concordia and Gustavus, no?  Or Gustavus and Bethel?  Tough call. 

I know you were being tongue-in-cheek, but would 2nd be out of the question? Maybe it's just that I recall 2003 when Mt was a prohibitive favorite, and had won their semi-final by something like 60 points.

Players in tomorrow's game were what...7-10 years old in 2003?  Why would that have anything at all to do with anything? 

Maybe you're also too young to have heard the adage; "Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it."

I didn't think I'd have to explain the parallel between a year where just about everyone thought that one team was far superior to the other, and actually had evidence in the series of lopsided scores Mt racked up, to this year. I don't think there is overwhelming evidence that either team is greatly outmatched. It appears to be a fairly even game. Time will tell. Maybe you should look at the d3.com rankings to see that "experts" can get it wrong.Would you rank St Thomas 4th right now?

Although I often wear my red tinted glasses, there is very little evidence that shows,other than UMU and UST, there are many teams better than SJU this year. If UST loses, and the differential is larger than I anticipate, I will reassess based on new evidence.

[retagent]

St John's beat Dubuque soundly twice. They were ranked #18 in the Week 11 d3.com poll. They beat Concordia who at the time had votes putting them in 28th, and got as high as 17. They beat Gustavus, who had votes putting them 26th at the time. They beat Bethel ho had been ranked as high as 23.

They beat everyone they played except for St Thomas, who will be either #1 or #2.

[jamtod]

Tell it to a Johnnie, man.  Some seem convinced that SJU might be better than everybody except for UST.  It's ridiculous.

You might be reading into something that I haven't seen on here.  The SJU fans have made a case that they are better than Wabash.  You and the Wabash fans have done the opposite.  Nobody really knows for sure.  As much as it pains me, the SJU fans might be right but it's all speculative.

So here's a Johnnie fan telling us that SJU maybe should be in the top 5. 

Maybe St John's? They played the Toms twice. Held them to their second lowest point total so far, and scored more points than anyone else the other time. I'd say that makes them definite Top 10, possibly Top 5. Just looking at point differential (what else do we have?) puts them on par with Linfield.

This reasoning is lunacy.  And the idea that SJU can ride UST's coattails up the rankings is lunacy.  There are plenty of teams here that actually have quality wins that SJU doesn't.  Who you beat matters more than who we think you might beat.  Or at least it should. 

And the idea that St. John's losing a non-competitive game (twice!) by a couple of points less than anybody else lost a non-competitive game to UST is the tiebreak is just dumb.   It's dumb to pretend that 38-19 wasn't 31-7 when the remainder of the game stopped being relevant.  That is not a valid reason for St. John's > Wabash and it is not a valid reason for St. John's to be in the top 5.  And yet, here we are waiting with baited breath to see how UST vs. UMU goes so that we might have an idea of what to do with St. John's.  What to do with St. John's has already been settled.

I guess I read that giving retagent the benefit of the doubt. His comment is filled with maybe's and I don't believe he is suggesting that the polls SHOULD put St John's #5, but is merely suggesting that there is nothing definitive to suggest that St John's couldn't be one of the best 5 teams.  As you say, the polls are done based on your resume - based on who you beat.  If St Thomas were to blow out Mount Union (again, not likely, purely hypothetical), one COULD say that the next best teams in the country are Wabash, St John's, Linfield.  The polls would not show that, but there wouldn't be anything to say that couldn't be true.
Likewise, if Mount Union wins in a landslide, one could make an argument that Wesley and UWW are the 2nd and 3rd best teams.

[wally_wabash]

St John's beat Dubuque soundly twice. They were ranked #18 in the Week 11 d3.com poll. They beat Concordia who at the time had votes putting them in 28th, and got as high as 17. They beat Gustavus, who had votes putting them 26th at the time. They beat Bethel ho had been ranked as high as 23.

So what you're telling me is that St. John's didn't beat a single team that was ever ranked as high as teams that were beaten by: Mount Union, St. Thomas, Linfield, UMHB, Wabash, Wheaton, Hardin-Simmons, UWO, UWW, Wesley, or UWP.  Why would St. John's be ranked ahead of any of those teams?  Because losing by 19 and 21 points to UST is...a positive?  No way.  Just no way. 

[AO]

St John's beat Dubuque soundly twice. They were ranked #18 in the Week 11 d3.com poll. They beat Concordia who at the time had votes putting them in 28th, and got as high as 17. They beat Gustavus, who had votes putting them 26th at the time. They beat Bethel ho had been ranked as high as 23.

So what you're telling me is that St. John's didn't beat a single team that was ever ranked as high as teams that were beaten by: Mount Union, St. Thomas, Linfield, UMHB, Wabash, Wheaton, Hardin-Simmons, UWO, UWW, Wesley, or UWP.  Why would St. John's be ranked ahead of any of those teams?  Because losing by 19 and 21 points to UST is...a positive?  No way.  Just no way.

I don't think everyone has to rank the poll using the criteria of "good wins" or strength of schedule.  I would rank them based upon who I think would win at a neutral site. 

[jamtod]

St John's beat Dubuque soundly twice. They were ranked #18 in the Week 11 d3.com poll. They beat Concordia who at the time had votes putting them in 28th, and got as high as 17. They beat Gustavus, who had votes putting them 26th at the time. They beat Bethel ho had been ranked as high as 23.

So what you're telling me is that St. John's didn't beat a single team that was ever ranked as high as teams that were beaten by: Mount Union, St. Thomas, Linfield, UMHB, Wabash, Wheaton, Hardin-Simmons, UWO, UWW, Wesley, or UWP.  Why would St. John's be ranked ahead of any of those teams?  Because losing by 19 and 21 points to UST is...a positive?  No way.  Just no way.

I don't think everyone has to rank the poll using the criteria of "good wins" or strength of schedule.  I would rank them based upon who I think would win at a neutral site.

I would hope that the pollsters would be given some guidelines and criteria for how to rank, but perhaps not.  If they aren't using a consistent methodology, then that gives less credibility to the rankings in my mind. 

It's similar to some of the arguments I've seen on here about what teams are elite. Everyone is using wildly different methodology.  Some are using a short view of 1 particular year, others are looking at a 5, 10, or 15 year view to identify the elite programs (not just individual teams year to year).

[wally_wabash]

St John's beat Dubuque soundly twice. They were ranked #18 in the Week 11 d3.com poll. They beat Concordia who at the time had votes putting them in 28th, and got as high as 17. They beat Gustavus, who had votes putting them 26th at the time. They beat Bethel ho had been ranked as high as 23.

So what you're telling me is that St. John's didn't beat a single team that was ever ranked as high as teams that were beaten by: Mount Union, St. Thomas, Linfield, UMHB, Wabash, Wheaton, Hardin-Simmons, UWO, UWW, Wesley, or UWP.  Why would St. John's be ranked ahead of any of those teams?  Because losing by 19 and 21 points to UST is...a positive?  No way.  Just no way.

I don't think everyone has to rank the poll using the criteria of "good wins" or strength of schedule.  I would rank them based upon who I think would win at a neutral site.

I think that's an easy out that winds up leading people to vote for what's familiar. 

[AO]

St John's beat Dubuque soundly twice. They were ranked #18 in the Week 11 d3.com poll. They beat Concordia who at the time had votes putting them in 28th, and got as high as 17. They beat Gustavus, who had votes putting them 26th at the time. They beat Bethel ho had been ranked as high as 23.

So what you're telling me is that St. John's didn't beat a single team that was ever ranked as high as teams that were beaten by: Mount Union, St. Thomas, Linfield, UMHB, Wabash, Wheaton, Hardin-Simmons, UWO, UWW, Wesley, or UWP.  Why would St. John's be ranked ahead of any of those teams?  Because losing by 19 and 21 points to UST is...a positive?  No way.  Just no way.

I don't think everyone has to rank the poll using the criteria of "good wins" or strength of schedule.  I would rank them based upon who I think would win at a neutral site.

I think that's an easy out that winds up leading people to vote for what's familiar.

Wouldn't it tend to favor the better conferences if you did vote based upon ranked wins and strength of schedule? 

[retagent]

jamto understands what I'm getting at. There is precious little head to head to go on. I'm just trying to find a way to distinguish the indistinguishable.

It's easy  to criticize. What's your criteria, wally, and how do you rank those teams that don't play head to head?