Playoffs -- 2015

smedindy · December 13, 2015, 02:21:32 PM

The process worked. The two best teams definitely made the Stagg Bowl. You can say Linfield was definitely one of the best four teams, and that Oshkosh and Whitewater could play 100 times and it could go 50/50. So they're probably 4/5 or something. UMHB, Wabash and Wesley are definitely in the Top 10 with probably Wheaton and Johns Hopkins - maybe Thomas More or St. John's. But the playoffs worked as they were supposed to. The best two teams are in Salem.

retagent · December 13, 2015, 03:56:04 PM

Maybe St John's? They played the Toms twice. Held them to their second lowest point total so far, and scored more points than anyone else the other time. I'd say that makes them definite Top 10, possibly Top 5. Just looking at point differential (what else do we have?) puts them on par with Linfield.

BashDad · December 13, 2015, 04:22:09 PM

You gotta have a marquee win to be top 5, I'm afraid. Losing twice, no matter the degree, doesn't -- or shouldn't -- promote a team to the upper echelon of the field.

retagent · December 13, 2015, 04:26:26 PM

They beat everybody else they played (a coupe that were ranked at the time) Who else could they beat?l

hazzben · December 13, 2015, 05:06:27 PM

Quote from: BashDad on December 13, 2015, 04:22:09 PM
You gotta have a marquee win to be top 5, I'm afraid. Losing twice, no matter the degree, doesn't -- or shouldn't -- promote a team to the upper echelon of the field.

I don't think SJU is top 5. But they've definitely played UST tougher than anyone else. They can only play the teams in front of them and the way the bracket set up, they had no chance for one of those 'marquee wins.'

BashDad · December 13, 2015, 05:18:53 PM

Quote from: retagent on December 13, 2015, 04:26:26 PM
They beat everybody else they played (a coupe that were ranked at the time) Who else could they beat?l

Well, UST.

BashDad · December 13, 2015, 05:19:47 PM

Quote from: hazzben on December 13, 2015, 05:06:27 PM
Quote from: BashDad on December 13, 2015, 04:22:09 PM
You gotta have a marquee win to be top 5, I'm afraid. Losing twice, no matter the degree, doesn't -- or shouldn't -- promote a team to the upper echelon of the field.

I don't think SJU is top 5. But they've definitely played UST tougher than anyone else. They can only play the teams in front of them and the way the bracket set up, they had no chance for one of those 'marquee wins.'

Yes they did.

BashDad · December 13, 2015, 05:25:51 PM

You would have to bump linfield and UMHB, to say nothing of UWO or UWW. It's just ridiculous to posit that SJU should be considered for a top 5 placement with no other evidence than losing games against one of the nation's best. All those other teams have wins against much better teams than any SJU opponent.

Pat Coleman · December 13, 2015, 08:53:01 PM

Quote from: BashDad on December 13, 2015, 04:22:09 PM
You gotta have a marquee win to be top 5, I'm afraid. Losing twice, no matter the degree, doesn't -- or shouldn't -- promote a team to the upper echelon of the field.

I don't look at that as two losses. It's really more like one loss. It's not like anyone else beat UST so far this year.

retagent · December 13, 2015, 09:41:38 PM

Quote from: BashDad on December 13, 2015, 05:25:51 PM
You would have to bump linfield and UMHB, to say nothing of UWO or UWW. It's just ridiculous to posit that SJU should be considered for a top 5 placement with no other evidence than losing games against one of the nation's best. All those other teams have wins against much better teams than any SJU opponent.

It all depends on next game. The "much better teams" is speculative. UMHB is a big question mark, and UWO and UWW have fallen a lot because of what just happened, If UST wins, what does that say about both of them?

BashDad · December 13, 2015, 10:20:23 PM

All of those teams have much better wins than SJU. I disagree that Friday has anything to do with this conversation.

USee · December 13, 2015, 11:58:15 PM

Quote from: Pat Coleman on December 13, 2015, 08:53:01 PM
Quote from: BashDad on December 13, 2015, 04:22:09 PM
You gotta have a marquee win to be top 5, I'm afraid. Losing twice, no matter the degree, doesn't -- or shouldn't -- promote a team to the upper echelon of the field.

I don't look at that as two losses. It's really more like one loss. It's not like anyone else beat UST so far this year.

I remember someone I know who is really wise once said it's not who you lost to, it's who you beat.

USee · December 13, 2015, 11:58:50 PM

St Johns = North Central

Pat Coleman · December 14, 2015, 02:15:53 AM

I didn't try to ascribe a win to St. John's or anything -- I just don't think it's right to consider them a typical two-loss team. They lost to a team nobody has been close to. Just because the NCAA scheduled them for a second outing doesn't change how I view them.

smedindy · December 14, 2015, 01:43:01 PM

I didn't think it'd be that controversial - and I certainly didn't mean for the homers to come out.

Basically, throw UMHB, Wabash, Wesley, Thomas More, Johns Hopkins, Wheaton, St. John's and Hardin-Simmons (forgot them) into an eight team tournament, run a bunch of simulations, and I think each of those teams would win their share of the simulated tournament. The Top 13 teams in D3 are all pretty stout, with a definite line between 2 and 3 - a line between 5 and 6 - a small line between 8 and 9 (as noted below) down to 13.