Playoffs -- 2015

[wally_wabash]

TMC was also better than SJU if we're being honest, but that'll fly even less so than Wabash was better than SJU, so I won't even try.  St. John's has brand name cachet and they come from a league that most people think is the best (I agree with that, btw...I just don't think that designation is worth very much).  That's a debate ender for most people.  For me it isn't- that's where the debate starts.

TMC beat my boys like a drum. You don't have to talk them up to me. That being said, I think you are short-changing people's ability to look at relevant information in your zeal for your team.

Pots and kettles and what not, right? 

If the argument that SJU is better than Wabash hinges on 38-19 being significantly different than 37-7, I reject that argument.  Those scores don't mean anything by themselves and completely free of game context. 

If the argument is that SJU's wins in their league are significantly better than wins Wabash had during the season, I reject that, too.  I don't know how different Gustavus, Bethel, Concordia, or Dubuque really are from DePauw, Wittenberg, Thomas More, Hampden-Sydney, or Albion.  Jumble all of those teams up and divvy them out in whatever way you want, you've got pretty similar schedule qualities. 

And the SJU crowd clearly has a statistically significant argument for saying you are wrong. Skimming the data, Wabash ranks ahead. Looking at the most relevant data we have, a common opponent, I'm not so sure...

What statistical argument is there for this?  Outside of the margin of defeat vs. UST, which is fool's gold, what else is there that SJU is a better team? 

Wabash stats

Saint John's stats

Take a look.  You let me know where the stats tell us that SJU > Wabash.  Frankly, the statistical argument is weaker than the exceptionally weak MOV vs. UST argument. 

[retagent]

If they both played the same teams, that would be a lot more dispositive. But, they didn't. And we're back where we started. Another thing you're missing is that the results vs UST is not the ONLY argument we're making. And, I'm done.

[jknezek]

Wally... only you, and probably some other Wabash posters, want to completely ignore a 2 TD difference at the end of a 3rd quarter against a common opponent. That's significant. Only you want to ignore the fact that Wabash was incapable of scoring on STU's first team defense, something that SJU did in both games. Only you want to ignore the fact that Wabash gave up more points to STU's first team offense. Wabash got 12 first downs and 226 yards of offense against STU. SJU got 25% more first downs, and 40 more yards. SJU gave up fewer yards than Wabash. This is relevant "game context". 

You are simply ignoring the relevant COMMON opponent information you don't like in favor of UNCOMMON opponent information you do like. Common opponent information is better, and you are simply tossing it out. That's ludicrous.

I understand WAF and you won't give in on this. That's fine. If you can't face some of the most relevant facts, and only want to trade in the less relevant facts, that is your business.

As a non-partisan, I can look at both and decide these teams are probably pretty close in ability.

[miac952]

TMC was also better than SJU if we're being honest, but that'll fly even less so than Wabash was better than SJU, so I won't even try.  St. John's has brand name cachet and they come from a league that most people think is the best (I agree with that, btw...I just don't think that designation is worth very much).  That's a debate ender for most people.  For me it isn't- that's where the debate starts.

TMC beat my boys like a drum. You don't have to talk them up to me. That being said, I think you are short-changing people's ability to look at relevant information in your zeal for your team.

The Wabash SJU fight is certainly interesting. The back and forth is validated by Massey, what I believe to be the strongest computer rankings out there. It has held true to form for all but two games in the D3 playoffs and those were games where win probability was a little over 50% for the eventual loser, so it has been a very good barometer on who teams measure up. In this case Wabash is ahead by the tiny margin of .01, validating the back and forth going on here.

http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?s=cf&sub=NCAA-D3

[jamtod]

TMC was also better than SJU if we're being honest, but that'll fly even less so than Wabash was better than SJU, so I won't even try.

I can accept this if we also say that TMC is actually better than Wabash. A case can be made, maybe even a strong one based on standard home team differentials.

[wesleydad]

guess the silly talk about st johns as a top 5 can stop.  and the real talk about where does Wesley end up start.  If UST is 2 than Wesley is 3, but I would flip them.  Nothing tonight says that UST is better. 

[Mr. Ypsi]

TMC was also better than SJU if we're being honest, but that'll fly even less so than Wabash was better than SJU, so I won't even try.

I can accept this if we also say that TMC is actually better than Wabash. A case can be made, maybe even a strong one based on standard home team differentials.

Um, no.  I don't know of anyone who gives a SIX point differential for home field.  Three seems pretty much the norm.

Of course by the attitude of some posters, it doesn't matter anyway.  UST is no better than whoever is the worst team this year in D3, since 2nd place is just the first loser (or as is invariably the case with such posters, the first 'looser', which may tell you all you need to know about such posters. )

On my final posters' poll ballot I will have Wabash and SJU VERY close together, but haven't yet studied enough to decide where, but both will be above TMC.

[AO]

guess the silly talk about st johns as a top 5 can stop.  and the real talk about where does Wesley end up start.  If UST is 2 than Wesley is 3, but I would flip them.  Nothing tonight says that UST is better.

Did you forget you lost to Salisbury?  Nearly every play in that game says Wesley isn't #2.

[jamtod]

TMC was also better than SJU if we're being honest, but that'll fly even less so than Wabash was better than SJU, so I won't even try.

I can accept this if we also say that TMC is actually better than Wabash. A case can be made, maybe even a strong one based on standard home team differentials.

Um, no.  I don't know of anyone who gives a SIX point differential for home field.  Three seems pretty much the norm

I presume that applies to regulation? Add 3 to TMC at regulation. Note that I am not seriously suggesting this, just presenting it for my amusement

[wesleydad]

guess the silly talk about st johns as a top 5 can stop.  and the real talk about where does Wesley end up start.  If UST is 2 than Wesley is 3, but I would flip them.  Nothing tonight says that UST is better.

Did you forget you lost to Salisbury?  Nearly every play in that game says Wesley isn't #2.

No, did not forget and not happy with it.  But maybe only 1 play in that game says that.

[pg04]

guess the silly talk about st johns as a top 5 can stop.  and the real talk about where does Wesley end up start.  If UST is 2 than Wesley is 3, but I would flip them.  Nothing tonight says that UST is better.

Honestly just no. If you are going to make one game the end all be all (a game that Wesley was LOSING 49-14 at the half, as opposed to being tied at 14), the Salisbury game automatically disqualifies Wesley from being part of the conversation to be ahead of or equal to the Tommies. Even so, STT probably had 4 wins better than anything Wesley had (STJ twice, Wabash, Linfield). St Thomas and Mount were clearly the two best teams in the country.

I love the fire but this is just complete homer bluster.

[wesleydad]

guess the silly talk about st johns as a top 5 can stop.  and the real talk about where does Wesley end up start.  If UST is 2 than Wesley is 3, but I would flip them.  Nothing tonight says that UST is better.

Honestly just no. If you are going to make one game the end all be all (a game that Wesley was LOSING 49-14 at the half, as opposed to being tied at 14), the Salisbury game automatically disqualifies Wesley from being part of the conversation to be ahead of or equal to the Tommies. Even so, STT probably had 4 wins better than anything Wesley had (STJ twice, Wabash, Linfield). St Thomas and Mount were clearly the two best teams in the country.



I love the fire but this is just complete homer bluster.

having fun with it pg.  I know they will not jump to #2 in the rankings.  you are right the salisbury loss is bad.  as far as comparing games they are similar.  each team got smoked in a half, does it really matter which half?  STT will be ranked #2.  It will be interesting how the rest of it falls into place.

[pg04]

guess the silly talk about st johns as a top 5 can stop.  and the real talk about where does Wesley end up start.  If UST is 2 than Wesley is 3, but I would flip them.  Nothing tonight says that UST is better.

Honestly just no. If you are going to make one game the end all be all (a game that Wesley was LOSING 49-14 at the half, as opposed to being tied at 14), the Salisbury game automatically disqualifies Wesley from being part of the conversation to be ahead of or equal to the Tommies. Even so, STT probably had 4 wins better than anything Wesley had (STJ twice, Wabash, Linfield). St Thomas and Mount were clearly the two best teams in the country.



I love the fire but this is just complete homer bluster.

having fun with it pg.  I know they will not jump to #2 in the rankings.  you are right the salisbury loss is bad.  as far as comparing games they are similar.  each team got smoked in a half, does it really matter which half?  STT will be ranked #2.  It will be interesting how the rest of it falls into place.

I think it does matter a bit which half it was, but you are right getting run off the field didn't look good for either.

Having seen a few of Wesley's games, I know they are in the elite status this year, so perhaps they are deserving of 3 (at highest although I doubt this will be it either). The case of Wesley vs. Linfield or Wesley vs. UWW seems more compelling to me. Now I really wish Wesley had been placed elsewhere in the bracket, just to see. Ah well, Wesley should be very proud of their season for sure.

[miac952]

guess the silly talk about st johns as a top 5 can stop.  and the real talk about where does Wesley end up start.  If UST is 2 than Wesley is 3, but I would flip them.  Nothing tonight says that UST is better.

Honestly just no. If you are going to make one game the end all be all (a game that Wesley was LOSING 49-14 at the half, as opposed to being tied at 14), the Salisbury game automatically disqualifies Wesley from being part of the conversation to be ahead of or equal to the Tommies. Even so, STT probably had 4 wins better than anything Wesley had (STJ twice, Wabash, Linfield). St Thomas and Mount were clearly the two best teams in the country.



I love the fire but this is just complete homer bluster.

having fun with it pg.  I know they will not jump to #2 in the rankings.  you are right the salisbury loss is bad.  as far as comparing games they are similar.  each team got smoked in a half, does it really matter which half?  STT will be ranked #2.  It will be interesting how the rest of it falls into place.

That's what I don't get abou this. Your basing a LEAP to #2 based on a game in which Wesley was getting absolutely rolled 49-14 at the half and ended up still losing by 21. Never mind the lack of quality wins and a loss to Salisbury. Whitewater beat Morningside, Platteville, and Oshkosh. UST drubbed Wabash, Linfield, and SJU x2.

Might be want of the strangest arguments I've seen for leaping over teams I've seen. We were getting beat by 35 at halftime to a team and lost by 21, but it looked so cute in the process that we should jump 5-6 other teams.

[thewaterboy]

guess the silly talk about st johns as a top 5 can stop.  and the real talk about where does Wesley end up start.  If UST is 2 than Wesley is 3, but I would flip them.  Nothing tonight says that UST is better.

Honestly just no. If you are going to make one game the end all be all (a game that Wesley was LOSING 49-14 at the half, as opposed to being tied at 14), the Salisbury game automatically disqualifies Wesley from being part of the conversation to be ahead of or equal to the Tommies. Even so, STT probably had 4 wins better than anything Wesley had (STJ twice, Wabash, Linfield). St Thomas and Mount were clearly the two best teams in the country.



I love the fire but this is just complete homer bluster.

having fun with it pg.  I know they will not jump to #2 in the rankings.  you are right the salisbury loss is bad.  as far as comparing games they are similar.  each team got smoked in a half, does it really matter which half?  STT will be ranked #2.  It will be interesting how the rest of it falls into place.

That's what I don't get abou this. Your basing a LEAP to #2 based on a game in which Wesley was getting absolutely rolled 49-14 at the half and ended up still losing by 21. Never mind the lack of quality wins and a loss to Salisbury. Whitewater beat Morningside, Platteville, and Oshkosh. UST drubbed Wabash, Linfield, and SJU x2.

Might be want of the strangest arguments I've seen for leaping over teams I've seen. We were getting beat by 35 at halftime to a team and lost by 21, but it looked so cute in the process that we should jump 5-6 other teams.

Again,  does it really matter which half? Wesley outscored Mount 21-7 in the second half with a chance to make it a 7 pt game with 6 mins to go in the 4th, but was outplayed in the first. Just like UST was outplayed in the second half.

And you say lack of quality wins, but you failed to recall that Wesley beat NCC, who's top 15-20, and JHU who was top 10. Both of those games on the road.