2016 Schedules

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Using records from last year here is the breakdown for Lycoming's schedule. Can someone please see if someone else will have a higher SOS based off of last year? Camden? Oneonta? Tufts? Amherst? Brandeis? Haverford? All are close I would imagine.

Non-conference schedule: 141-63-14 (8-6 in NCAA tournament) 1 Final 4 team, 1 Elite 8 team, 1 Sweet 16 team, 1 second round team, and 2 first round teams

Conference schedule: 69-75-13

Overall: 210-138-27 opponents record

For comparison Messiah plays two NCAA tournament teams from last year, one non-conference team which lost in the 2nd round being Wash. & Lee and the other being Lycoming.

I was also checking out their roster, doesn't look like they are losing anything from their team last year. No Seniors on the squad?

Yes that is one thing I mentioned at the end of last year. A Sweet 16 team that loses at Amherst with no seniors would be very dangerous next season. I must say I am a little shocked at how tough they made the non-conference portion of the schedule. I expected a slight increase in teams after all the chatter about their borderline SOS of the magical cutoff line, but this has to be over .600 right? Well over I would think. Close to .615 possibly? Not sure how to calculate it this is just my guess from last years records.

I don't do math unless I have to   Hope one of their few losses next year is to Scranton..

I anticipate that it will be a great game! 

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

https://www.facebook.com/MessiahMensSoccer/photos/a.378515705505627.94337.180138298676703/1162003760490147/?type=3&theater

Messiah soccer alumni game from this past Saturday -- pic from their Facebook page.  Strong support like that is one of several reasons why a program like Messiah may have been down a bit last season but they won't be out for long.

Great turnout for the Falcons fan base. I agree that they won't be down and out for long!

[lastguyoffthebench]

Looking at Lyco schedule; 8 home games, 11 road games (vs the likes of F&M, Haverford, Eastern, Messiah, and Oneonta St) bolsters the SOS to around .627.      Just a brutal schedule and strong move by the staff to get some big time games in this season.

Rowan   16   6   0   0.618181818
F&M            17   4   0   1.011904762
Susqu   9   7   2   0.694444444
Eastern   16   3   2   1.011904762
Haverford   18   4   0   1.022727273
Juniata   3   13   1   0.257352941
Scranton   11   7   2   0.51
FSU           11   5   2   0.566666667
CWRU   13   4   1   0.6375
Miseri   7   7   2   0.5859375
Arcadia   11   7   3   0.505
Albright   1   15   1   0.110294118
Alvernia   9   7   6   0.463636364
Messiah   14   5   1   0.90625
Widener   9   10   1   0.59375
LVC           8   10   0   0.377777778
Hood          12   9   0   0.714285714
Oneonta   19   3   2   1.041666667
Stevenson   5   12   1   0.259722222
         209   137   27   0.62711858

Non-weighted = .596
Weighted with H/A factors = .626

I don't remember what Rutgers-Camden was using 2015 results for 2016 schedule, but I believe it was around the same as what Lyco has in line for 2016.

[lastguyoffthebench]

2016 CAMDEN SOS

Salisbury   13   4   3   0.90625
St. Mary    9   9   2   0.5
Alvernia   9   7   6   0.463636364
Farm St   10   9   2   0.445238095
Cabrini   15   3   3   0.982142857
USMMA   9   7   1   0.475
Haverford   18   4   0   1.022727273
Swat            7   9   3   0.380263158
Brockport   12   4   2   0.613888889
Miseri   7   7   2   0.625
              
MSU           19   3   1   1.059782609
Rowan   16   6   0   0.909090909
Stockton   14   6   1   0.863095238
Newark   16   7   1   0.584375
Kean           14   6   0   0.595
TCNJ    10   5   2   0.55
WPU           6   9   2   0.35
Ramapo   8   9   2   0.592105263
NJCU      1   16   0   0.078125
          213   130   33   0.631353719


Non-weighted = .610
Weighted with H/A factors = .631

[lastguyoffthebench]

BRANDEIS

JCarroll   14   4   2   0.638
Haverford   18   4   0   0.695
at Nichols   7   12   0   0.461
at Babson   12   7   2   0.774
at WPI   11   7   2   0.750
Tufts           11   5   3   0.559
Wheaton   11   8   0   0.492
at CMU   11   4   3   0.868
at MIT   18   3   1   1.051
CWRU   13   4   1   0.638
at MA-Mar   5   12   0   0.521
at Chicago   12   5   3   0.844
atWashMO   12   4   4   0.875
Clark           5   10   2   0.300
at Lasell   3   13   0   0.234
Emory   9   6   2   0.500
Rochester   6   5   5   0.452
at NYU   6   12   0   0.417
          184   125   30   0.615

[lastguyoffthebench]

Haverford 2016


Okay, so we know they have Brandeis on Sunday the 4th.  The question remains who the 4th team is for the Brandeis Invitational that the Fords would play on Saturday.

Will they drop Rosemont off the schedule.  Close in proximity to the school, but this game crushes SOS.  They've played 3 of the last 4 years, but I think this one is going bye-bye.   Why not look to add Cabrini again?

The Fords have been beefing up the NJAC slate;  Rutgers-Camden, Rowan, Kean, MSU or Stockton.    They've also played WPU and Rutgers-Newark.

Out of conference predictions:
Keene St (wishful thinking for Middlebury or Wesleyan here in this spot)
Brandeis
Eastern
Rutgers-Camden
MSU
Rowan
Kean
E-town
possibly Stevens Tech
possibly Cabrini

Messiah needs some bigger names on their resume and they've played the Fords in 2 of the previous 5 seasons.  Would be a good add for both schools.   
Eastern also played Haverford in 2011 and 2012... this game would make sense for both schools.
E-town also needs some stronger out-of-conference games.  Haverford has played Scranton, Drew, Catholic in the past...

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Haverford 2016


Okay, so we know they have Brandeis on Sunday the 4th.  The question remains who the 4th team is for the Brandeis Invitational that the Fords would play on Saturday.

Will they drop Rosemont off the schedule.  Close in proximity to the school, but this game crushes SOS.  They've played 3 of the last 4 years, but I think this one is going bye-bye.   Why not look to add Cabrini again?

The Fords have been beefing up the NJAC slate;  Rutgers-Camden, Rowan, Kean, MSU or Stockton.    They've also played WPU and Rutgers-Newark.

Out of conference predictions:
Keene St (wishful thinking for Middlebury or Wesleyan here in this spot)
Brandeis
Eastern
Rutgers-Camden
MSU
Rowan
Kean
E-town
possibly Stevens Tech
possibly Cabrini

Messiah needs some bigger names on their resume and they've played the Fords in 2 of the previous 5 seasons.  Would be a good add for both schools.   
Eastern also played Haverford in 2011 and 2012... this game would make sense for both schools.
E-town also needs some stronger out-of-conference games.  Haverford has played Scranton, Drew, Catholic in the past...

Based off of Lycoming's schedule it looks like they are at Eastern and at Haverford on the same weekend so I would imagine that is also some kind of tournament that they are hosting? Messiah's schedule has been released and Haverford is not on it.

[Shooter McGavin]

Lycoming's schedule is up..


http://athletics.lycoming.edu/schedule.aspx?path=msoc

Brutal is an understatement. I don't see them winning more than 12 games this regular season.

12-5-2 is my early bird prediction. 1 win, 2 losses and 1 tie from the grouping of Rowan, @F&M, @Eastern, @Fords, 1 loss during the home game stretch with Scranton/FSU/CWR, Loss @Messiah, Loss @Oneonta and a tie vs Alvernia in conference. 

Would 13-6-2 put them in with an at-large bid assuming they make the MACC final and lose to Messiah? (Hypothetical situation)
It come's down to the Rutgers Camden example again of what happens if this...

I think if they go 13-6-2 they are a lock with that schedule assuming all those teams live up to expectations like they did last year.

But what happens if they go 11-6-4...then it gets tricky with the ties. Once again all hypothetical!

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Lycoming's schedule is up..


http://athletics.lycoming.edu/schedule.aspx?path=msoc

Brutal is an understatement. I don't see them winning more than 12 games this regular season.

12-5-2 is my early bird prediction. 1 win, 2 losses and 1 tie from the grouping of Rowan, @F&M, @Eastern, @Fords, 1 loss during the home game stretch with Scranton/FSU/CWR, Loss @Messiah, Loss @Oneonta and a tie vs Alvernia in conference. 

Would 13-6-2 put them in with an at-large bid assuming they make the MACC final and lose to Messiah? (Hypothetical situation)
It come's down to the Rutgers Camden example again of what happens if this...

I think if they go 13-6-2 they are a lock with that schedule assuming all those teams live up to expectations like they did last year.

But what happens if they go 11-6-4...then it gets tricky with the ties. Once again all hypothetical!

I see where you are coming from Shooter, but I will give them a little more credit than that. This is a team that went 18-2-2 last year with one of their losses being to the national champs Amherst and they don't lose a single player from the roster. They rarely lose at home (1 loss at home in last 2 years) and they rarely give up goals (13 shutouts last season). Those two factors are big keys to their success. Here are my "early bird" predictions: 1 home game and 5 road games in their first 6 which I see them coming out of that chunk 4-1-1. Next they have 3 home games and 1 away game which I see them sweeping thru with at worst 3 wins and 1 tie. So that chunk they go 3-0-1 putting them at 7-1-2 entering conference play. I think they go 7-1 in conference losing at Messiah this year. That puts them at 14-2-2 overall with Oneonta St being the last non-conference game for them which they will tie on the road which gives them a 14-2-3 overall record heading into playoffs. If they lose in the MACC finals, as mentioned before, that puts them at 15-3-3 which easily gets them an at-large bid.

After watching Lycoming and Messiah numerous times last season, I believe that Lycoming has the edge in that match-up. They might lose on the road to Messiah in the regular season, but they won't lose twice to them. I also can't see them losing 6 times even with that schedule. They are too good defensively to not at least get ties in the close games they will have this year. They haven't had 6 losses combined in the last 2 years, so to say they will have 6 this coming season alone is too much of a stretch for me.

[lastguyoffthebench]

Lycoming's schedule is up..


http://athletics.lycoming.edu/schedule.aspx?path=msoc

Brutal is an understatement. I don't see them winning more than 12 games this regular season.

12-5-2 is my early bird prediction. 1 win, 2 losses and 1 tie from the grouping of Rowan, @F&M, @Eastern, @Fords, 1 loss during the home game stretch with Scranton/FSU/CWR, Loss @Messiah, Loss @Oneonta and a tie vs Alvernia in conference. 

Would 13-6-2 put them in with an at-large bid assuming they make the MACC final and lose to Messiah? (Hypothetical situation)
It come's down to the Rutgers Camden example again of what happens if this...

I think if they go 13-6-2 they are a lock with that schedule assuming all those teams live up to expectations like they did last year.

But what happens if they go 11-6-4...then it gets tricky with the ties. Once again all hypothetical!

I still think Rutgers-Camden would have gotten in had they lost to MSU in the NJAC FINAL.  Yes the blemishes were incredibly high, but so was the SOS (most likely top 3 in region) and we've seen UAA schools with blemishes relative to the number of games played by that of an NJAC school; Rochester 2014 10-5-3 record and 4th in the UAA... 8 blemishes in 18 (63.8%) games vs Camden 13-7-2 record over 22 games (63.6%).  A team that had EIGHT blemishes went from not ranked in NCAA Regional Ranking to the #4 slot (in a large region) from the 2nd to 3rd release.   Why would the NCAA slot them in this position if there was not a legitimately strong chance of moving them through, even with a 1-1 week during the secret ranking phase with games vs Stockton and MSU or Rowan in the FINAL. 

If Lycoming were to make the MAC FINAL and fail to earn the AQ, I think we will see them get in with 9 blemishes (a first ever in terms of Pool C I believe).   The parity of the division is growing and I think we will begin to see teams with more blemishes than normal secure spots in the tournament...  If teams are winning 65% of their games and going out playing the most difficult schedule possible... they deserve a shot.  Just my opinion.   

My prediction is that Lycoming starts 2-2-2 in opening 6 games and finishes year with 4 losses (F&M, Haverford, Oneonta, Messiah) and 4 draws (Rowan, Eastern, CWRU, and a random let down) heading into a conference final vs Messiah.   The resume for the season should be enough to get Lyco in.  It's no disrespect to Lycoming, but going from mediocre scheduling history to this will have a big shock factor.  The fact that Lycoming is on the map now and these big time schools have a chance to get a strong result at home will make it that much more competitive.   I cannot see Lycoming winning at Oneonta or Messiah, but can see DRAWS at F&M or Haverford).   I can also see Susqu getting a positive result early in the season hosting the Warriors...  possibly a DRAW

Lyco vs Susqu
2015: Lyco 4, Susqu 2 (late goal in 86th min clinches win for Lyco...  Lyco 17 shots with 6 on target, Susqu 15 with 8 on target)
2014: Susqu 0, Lyco 0
2013: Lyco 1, Susqu 3
2012: Susqu 4, Lyco 0

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Thanks for the calculations LastGuy. Great insight as well. It will be interesting to see how it all shapes up.

Does anybody have any info on spring games for their respective teams? I know Lycoming played Bucknell last night...does anyone know the result of that?

Also Millersville/Elizabethtown hosted a spring tournament with a bunch of colleges from all levels this past weekend...does anyone know who attended and how they did?

Messiah travels to Shippensburg University this week from what I heard...I am sure we will be getting updates on that one (I hope)!

Any others? NJAC schools? NESCAC schools? Centennial schools? 

[1970s NESCAC Player]

Thanks for the calculations LastGuy. Great insight as well. It will be interesting to see how it all shapes up.

Does anybody have any info on spring games for their respective teams? I know Lycoming played Bucknell last night...does anyone know the result of that?

Also Millersville/Elizabethtown hosted a spring tournament with a bunch of colleges from all levels this past weekend...does anyone know who attended and how they did?

Messiah travels to Shippensburg University this week from what I heard...I am sure we will be getting updates on that one (I hope)!

Any others? NJAC schools? NESCAC schools? Centennial schools?

NESCAC schools are not allowed to have any out-of-season organized activities, so there will be no spring scores to report from that league.

[lastguyoffthebench]

I believe E-town won their Spring Tournament...   Teams that I heard participated... E-town, Eastern, Rutgers-Camden, Dickinson, Marymount, ... Don't have any scores.

[NEPAFAN]

I believe E-town won their Spring Tournament...   Teams that I heard participated... E-town, Eastern, Rutgers-Camden, Dickinson, Marymount, ... Don't have any scores.

Dumb question do seniors play in the spring of their graduation year? Or are they not included?

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

I believe E-town won their Spring Tournament...   Teams that I heard participated... E-town, Eastern, Rutgers-Camden, Dickinson, Marymount, ... Don't have any scores.

Dumb question do seniors play in the spring of their graduation year? Or are they not included?

I think they are allowed to practice if they choose, but I doubt coaches want them playing in the spring game since it is building up for next year's team, which the current seniors would not be apart of.