2016 Schedules

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

http://www.frostburgsports.com/schedule.aspx?path=msoc&

A dangerous and streaky team to watch this year in the South Atlantic Region...couple D1 transfers and some other notable transfers and recruits. Could make some noise in the CAC if they stay disciplined and avoid futher NCAA rules infractions.

[lastguyoffthebench]

Etown's Schedule

http://www.etownbluejays.com/schedule.aspx?path=msoc

They are going to need to win the conference championship to get in!

Guess they didn't learn 

Disagree slightly here... plenty of chances to build the resume;  Hobart, TCNJ, F&M, @Messiah (Drew, Scranton)

Should beat: Alvernia, at Catholic, at Susqu,

MUST BEAT: Moravian, Wilkes, Neumann, PSU-Harrisburg, PSU-Berks, Lancaster Bible, Juniata, Goucher....

SOS Weighted:  .538
Non-Weighted:  .529

With .540 SOS range, no more than 3 blemishes will see them through.  4 blemishes has them on the bubble...

[Shooter McGavin]

Etown's Schedule

http://www.etownbluejays.com/schedule.aspx?path=msoc

They are going to need to win the conference championship to get in!

Guess they didn't learn 

Disagree slightly here... plenty of chances to build the resume;  Hobart, TCNJ, F&M, @Messiah (Drew, Scranton)

Should beat: Alvernia, at Catholic, at Susqu,

MUST BEAT: Moravian, Wilkes, Neumann, PSU-Harrisburg, PSU-Berks, Lancaster Bible, Juniata, Goucher....

SOS Weighted:  .538
Non-Weighted:  .529

With .540 SOS range, no more than 3 blemishes will see them through.  4 blemishes has them on the bubble...

17-2-1 last season with the same schedule and didn't get in. Plus this upcoming team won't be as good as last year. I see them going 12-4-1 and needing to win the Landmark to make NCAAs.

Losses to Messiah, F&M, Scranton, and Catholic and a tie vs Alvernia.

[Shooter McGavin]

http://www.frostburgsports.com/schedule.aspx?path=msoc&

A dangerous and streaky team to watch this year in the South Atlantic Region...couple D1 transfers and some other notable transfers and recruits. Could make some noise in the CAC if they stay disciplined and avoid futher NCAA rules infractions.

I think York will be the team to beat in CAC this year. Frostburg might be the most talented but will still be surpassed by the likes of CNU, York, and Salisbury.

[lastguyoffthebench]

Etown's Schedule

http://www.etownbluejays.com/schedule.aspx?path=msoc

They are going to need to win the conference championship to get in!

Guess they didn't learn 

Disagree slightly here... plenty of chances to build the resume;  Hobart, TCNJ, F&M, @Messiah (Drew, Scranton)

Should beat: Alvernia, at Catholic, at Susqu,

MUST BEAT: Moravian, Wilkes, Neumann, PSU-Harrisburg, PSU-Berks, Lancaster Bible, Juniata, Goucher....

SOS Weighted:  .538
Non-Weighted:  .529

With .540 SOS range, no more than 3 blemishes will see them through.  4 blemishes has them on the bubble...

17-2-1 last season with the same schedule and didn't get in. Plus this upcoming team won't be as good as last year. I see them going 12-4-1 and needing to win the Landmark to make NCAAs.

Losses to Messiah, F&M, Scranton, and Catholic and a tie vs Alvernia.

Was E-town the first team out last year?   Had the .525ish SOS been near .540, I think they would have been a lock to get in:

Hobart and TCNJ is a very solid opening weekend for 2016.  I see them going 0-1-1 to start the season. 

The Blue Jays season hinges on a difficult 2 week span, and we should be able to see if they are contenders/pretenders by Oct 8..

21-Sep........ Alvernia
24-Sep........ Drew
28-Sep........ at Messiah
1-Oct   .......... at Scranton
5-Oct.......... at Moravian
8-Oct.......... at Catholic



Best case:  13-3-1

Worst case:  10-6-1

My prediction:  10-4-3

[FootyFan]

I keep seeing Alvernia's name mentioned in everyone's schedule so I included their schedule

http://athletics.alvernia.edu/schedule.aspx?path=msoc

[Flying Weasel]

I keep seeing Alvernia's name mentioned in everyone's schedule so I included their schedule

http://athletics.alvernia.edu/schedule.aspx?path=msoc

Wow!  That's one heck of a non-conference slate/opening month, followed up with Messiah and Lyco in-conference at the start of October.

9/1/2016 Franklin & Marshall  (H)  -  Centennial #2 seed, NCAA Sweet 16
9/4/2016 York (A)  -  CAC #2 seed
9/7/2016 Rutgers­Camden (A)  -  NJAC champ, NCAA 2nd Round
9/10/2016 Haverford (N)  -  Centennial #1 seed/champ, NCAA Elite 8
9/11/2016 Eastern (A)  -  MAC Freedom champ, NCAA 1st Round
9/14/2016 Stockton (H)  -  NJAC #2 seed, NCAA bubble team
9/17/2016 Cabrini (H)  -  CSAC #1 seed/champ, NCAA 1st Round
9/21/2016 Elizabethtown (A)  -  Landmark #1 seed, NCAA bubble team
9/28/2016 PSU-Berks (H)
10/5/2016 Messiah (H)  -  MAC Commonwealth #2 seed, NCAA bubble team
10/8/2016 Lycoming (A)  -  MAC Commonwealth #1 seed/champ, NCAA Sweet 16
10/11/2016 Arcadia (A)
10/15/2016 Hood (H)
10/19/2016 Widener (H)
10/22/2016 Stevenson (A)
10/25/2016 Albright (A)
10/29/2016 Lebanon Valley (H)

• 8 of 9 non-conference foes and 10 of first 11 opponents were conference #1 or #2 seeds and/or conference champs last year
• 5 of 9 non-conference adversaries and 6 of first 11 opponents were NCAA participants (+3 bubble teams)
• 8 of 9 non-conference foes and 12 of first 13 opponents had winning records in 2015 (the other was .500)

It's possible (likely?) that Alvernia will only be favored in one of their first 11 matches (vs. PSU-Berks). Alvernia was on the rise five years ago under Casey Moore, setting a program record with 16 wins and a runner-up finish in the Commonwealth (only losses to Messiah) in 2011 and following that up with a good 2012 campaign that ended with lifting the ECAC Mid-Atlantic championship. 

But it's been a mixed bag since even though they finished 3rd in the conference in 2013 and 2014 and posted winning overall records the last two seasons.  They were rather young last year with freshmen and sophomores accounting for 9 of their top 10 point earners, so who knows what they are capable of, but this could too challenging of a schedule for this team.  If they can keep from getting frustrated and demoralized, they should certainly be prepared to tackle for the Commonwealth slate.  But there again the schedule does them no favors handing them Messiah and Lyco to open conference play, meaning likely having to play out of an 0-2-0 hole to climb back into a playoff spot. 

Alvernia and coach Moore have their work cut out for them.

[lastguyoffthebench]

Alvernia SOS Weighted = .647, which places them #2 in terms of schedules that we have seen posted/linked to the forum...
Non weighted SOS is = .634

The Alvernia schedule for 2016 should see at least 5 of those teams making the NCAAs again

1) Haverford = .649
2) Alvernia   =  .647
3) Rowan     =  .640
4) Camden   =  .631
5) Lycoming =  .626

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Etown's Schedule

http://www.etownbluejays.com/schedule.aspx?path=msoc

They are going to need to win the conference championship to get in!

Guess they didn't learn 

Disagree slightly here... plenty of chances to build the resume;  Hobart, TCNJ, F&M, @Messiah (Drew, Scranton)

Should beat: Alvernia, at Catholic, at Susqu,

MUST BEAT: Moravian, Wilkes, Neumann, PSU-Harrisburg, PSU-Berks, Lancaster Bible, Juniata, Goucher....

SOS Weighted:  .538
Non-Weighted:  .529

With .540 SOS range, no more than 3 blemishes will see them through.  4 blemishes has them on the bubble...

17-2-1 last season with the same schedule and didn't get in. Plus this upcoming team won't be as good as last year. I see them going 12-4-1 and needing to win the Landmark to make NCAAs.

Losses to Messiah, F&M, Scranton, and Catholic and a tie vs Alvernia.

Was E-town the first team out last year?   Had the .525ish SOS been near .540, I think they would have been a lock to get in:

Hobart and TCNJ is a very solid opening weekend for 2016.  I see them going 0-1-1 to start the season. 

The Blue Jays season hinges on a difficult 2 week span, and we should be able to see if they are contenders/pretenders by Oct 8..

21-Sep........ Alvernia
24-Sep........ Drew
28-Sep........ at Messiah
1-Oct   .......... at Scranton
5-Oct.......... at Moravian
8-Oct.......... at Catholic



Best case:  13-3-1

Worst case:  10-6-1

My prediction:  10-4-3

10-4-3 sounds about right! 

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Alvernia SOS Weighted = .647, which places them #2 in terms of schedules that we have seen posted/linked to the forum...
Non weighted SOS is = .634

The Alvernia schedule for 2016 should see at least 5 of those teams making the NCAAs again

1) Haverford = .649
2) Alvernia   =  .647
3) Rowan     =  .640
4) Camden   =  .631
5) Lycoming =  .626

Did we factor out what Messiah's SOS will be based off of last season?

[lastguyoffthebench]

Messiah's SOS = .589
Opponents Records = 181-127-33 (.579) non-weighted.

[FootyFan]

Whoa, Alvernia's schedule is impressive but will they get results from some of those games?  Last year, they had a lot of ties against quality competition but then fell flat against weaker conference teams.  However, they finished off the season by winning the ECAC South Championship.  The roster shows that they were very young last year but this schedule might be a bit too much. 

[NJrexSoccer03]

Whoa, Alvernia's schedule is impressive but will they get results from some of those games?  Last year, they had a lot of ties against quality competition but then fell flat against weaker conference teams.  However, they finished off the season by winning the ECAC South Championship.  The roster shows that they were very young last year but this schedule might be a bit too much.

Footy, at first I thought the same thing. But is this a bold move by Coach Moore to prepare his young players for the future. If they can get a few good results this year it will build confidence for a very young team. Don't get me wrong there will probably be frustrations and lot of "parking the bus" at times but I think Coach Moore can get his team through those tough time. They will gain experience against teams that are either going to get into the NCAA tournament or will be bubble teams.

I was looking at this schedule and thinking how it prepares them for next year and maybe 2 years from now. Do you lighten the schedule in the coming years and the team is battle tested and now more mature. Can they get the results needed to possibly sneak into the NCAA tournament? It will be hard to get by Messiah and Lycoming but it only takes a game or two at the right time to get in.

[lastguyoffthebench]

Whoa, Alvernia's schedule is impressive but will they get results from some of those games?  Last year, they had a lot of ties against quality competition but then fell flat against weaker conference teams.  However, they finished off the season by winning the ECAC South Championship.  The roster shows that they were very young last year but this schedule might be a bit too much.

Love the model.  We have seen teams build this way.   Schedule tough teams and win post season games...   

[lastguyoffthebench]

Stockton
http://stocktonathletics.com/schedule.aspx?path=msoc
Mary Washington and Haverford sprinkled with cupcakes....