2016 West Regional - Spokane, WA

[CAK72B]

Case played the #2 schedule. I wouldn't take their number to be comparable to the rest of the region that is limited in what they can accomplish SOS wise.

I didn't mean to devalue that point. It's just my interpretation of taking that into account that I value the .60 difference in BA and 1.25 difference in ERA more than the #2 SOS. Being a West poster I'm also a little biased with the SOS since the West gets bashed for that and there is not a ton those teams can do about it.

[Bishopleftiesdad]

Case played the #2 schedule. I wouldn't take their number to be comparable to the rest of the region that is limited in what they can accomplish SOS wise.

I didn't mean to devalue that point. It's just my interpretation of taking that into account that I value the .60 difference in BA and 1.25 difference in ERA more than the #2 SOS. Being a West poster I'm also a little biased with the SOS since the West gets bashed for that and there is not a ton those teams can do about it.

But that difference in ERA MAY be linked directly to SOS. WHat wouild Case's ERA be if they did not play the SOS they did. I do not believe you can just throw out SOS. I believe the 2 are inexorably linked. You cannot look at one with out looking at the other.

[108 Stitches]

I think you have to take stats with a grain of salt given Case's SoS. Here is my take. Trinity is deep in pitching and their lineup 1-9 is tough to pitch to, but they are vulnerable in game 1 as they don't have an ace type pitcher, unless Gray is back in form. (which he was in his last game) If Trinity wins game one then they will be the clear favorite. If they lose game one then it is anyone's Regional. If the PLU starter can get to Brown with a lead they have a chance. I actually think CLU has the favorable draw since UTT does not have an ace pitcher either for game 1 and I think they are the weakest team in the Regional. (not really knowing PLU)

My predictions for game 1.

Trinty vs PLU: Very tight game with Trinity on top
CLU vs UTT:   CLU should win this game
Case vs Whitworth: Case due to their SoS experience you have to respect who they have played and to have a couple of pitchers with mid 3 ERA says something.

I have not looked at the site webpage but assume they should have a high quality webcast. (Let's hope)

[Westside]

My predictions for game 1.

Trinty vs PLU: Very tight game with Trinity on top
CLU vs UTT:   CLU should win this game
Case vs Whitworth: Case due to their SoS experience you have to respect who they have played and to have a couple of pitchers with mid 3 ERA says something.

I have not looked at the site webpage but assume they should have a high quality webcast. (Let's hope)

In the regular season, Whitworth did not have a nice webcast (along with everyone in the NWC, it seems like the teams are stuck in the early 2000's). Here is to hoping the webcast is stepped up for the regional.

[CAK72B]

Case played the #2 schedule. I wouldn't take their number to be comparable to the rest of the region that is limited in what they can accomplish SOS wise.

I didn't mean to devalue that point. It's just my interpretation of taking that into account that I value the .60 difference in BA and 1.25 difference in ERA more than the #2 SOS. Being a West poster I'm also a little biased with the SOS since the West gets bashed for that and there is not a ton those teams can do about it.

But that difference in ERA MAY be linked directly to SOS. What would Case's ERA be if they did not play the SOS they did. I do not believe you can just throw out SOS. I believe the 2 are inexorably linked. You cannot look at one with out looking at the other.

I agree but in the West I think it is a different animal. Every year you could use SOS against the West over and over again. So when you apply it to the West I think you have to look at it more than one is low and one is high. Every time in the West it is going to be higher compared to other teams in the country so I think its needs to be more of a team by team basis. My point is more of I think SOS can work as a fair comparison if the West teams could consistently play the top teams in the rest of the country. However, I think for the West you just have to look at the region in general and to be honest it really for much of the season has looked like Trinity and then there is a drop off (however Cal Lu has looked better of late). It would not surprise me in the slightest if Case plays Trinity in the final.

[Ralph Turner]

You hate to judge the quality of an entire conference on the play of one team.

However, I am still trying to figure whether the ASC was down this year, or that the conference is so "knock-down?drag out" competitive that we cannot seem to rise above the fray. UTT is going against #2 seed CLU.

IMHO, if UTT wins one game in the regional, or even plays to within a competitive 3 runs in the 2 losses, then I have to believe in the parity of the top half of the conference.

Of course, Trinity is my bet for the strong favorite. Case (CWRU) will have been battle tested with all of the Regionally Ranked teams that they have played. Whitworth and PLU return to the playoffs from 2015 appearances.

This should be the strongest and most balanced regional of the eight.

[Westside]

Ralph - thanks for taking over with the West preview. I was swamped

I agree Trinity is the favorite, but I really don't know much past that. I need to see something from SCIAC teams before I believe in them, and the same goes for Texas teams not named Trinity.

I know PLU was a few hops away from the World Series last year, and they were even better this year on paper (heck, I had them ranked top 10 in the preseason). It will be interesting to see if they can ride the momentum of a NWC tourney win. Their pitching staff seems to be lacking a ton of depth, and they rely a ton on "crafty" lefties that aren't going to strike many people out.

Whitworth's offense has been good, and I think their time off is really helpful. I think their pitching staff tired a bit at the end of year, which may have led to their, roughly, .500 record in their last part of the season. Their two freshman starters combined for 140 innings, so a break should definitely help them.

[SoCalBaseballfan]

32 win team stays home -- Occidental. Here is a prime example why Caltech needs to go to club ball. They drag down the SOS for teams and they get left home. Playing Caltech along with losses to Pomona and CMS did them in. They had their chance by winning the SCIAC tournament but lost and stay home. Still will never agree with the selection process but that's me.

[SoCalBaseballfan]

I am picking Trinity to win the West. They are there every year. Great program, great coach and he always recruits players out of state with many from CA and other states. Downfall is always the large break of games not played before the the Regional. This year 17 days since it last game when they play their 1st game in the regional.

[Bishopleftiesdad]

There were tes from other regions left home as well. See Otterbein of the OAC, 32-11. Also see Wooster last year, over 30 wins and they stayed home. Happens almost every year to some team. Clearly SOS is important. Part of the problem is pool A bids from bad conferences. Not sure there is an answer to this. It is what it is.

[Jack Parkman]

There were tes from other regions left home as well. See Otterbein of the OAC, 32-11. Also see Wooster last year, over 30 wins and they stayed home. Happens almost every year to some team. Clearly SOS is important. Part of the problem is pool A bids from bad conferences. Not sure there is an answer to this. It is what it is.

Cal Lu from the SCIAC with 32 wins in 2015 and they stayed home.  Caltech isn't what hurt Oxy, it's the fact that they couldn't win the auto-bid when they had the same opportunity everyone else did. 

Oxy's non-conference schedule:

Willamette (X3) 20-19
Rutgers- Newark (X3) 15-24
Puget Sound (X3) 16-24
Bethesda (X1) 29-24 *Bethesda is an NCCAA school and this game didn't count towards their SOS, but they still lost.

If Oxy want's to blame anyone, they have to look nowhere but in the mirror.  Playing 10 non-conference games, ALL AT HOME, against weaker squads will never help.  If they duplicate this season next year, they must build their SOS so they are not in the same position.  For a school that is sending their football team to Hawaii to play a non-conference game, you would think the baseball team could bus over to AZ for 4+ games.

[Ralph Turner]

There were tes from other regions left home as well. See Otterbein of the OAC, 32-11. Also see Wooster last year, over 30 wins and they stayed home. Happens almost every year to some team. Clearly SOS is important. Part of the problem is pool A bids from bad conferences. Not sure there is an answer to this. It is what it is.

Cal Lu from the SCIAC with 32 wins in 2015 and they stayed home.  Caltech isn't what hurt Oxy, it's the fact that they couldn't win the auto-bid when they had the same opportunity everyone else did. 

Oxo's non-conference schedule:

Willamette (X3) 20-19
Rutgers- Newark (X3) 15-24
Puget Sound (X3) 16-24
Bethesda (X1) 29-24 *Bethesda is an NCCAA school and this game didn't count towards their SOS, but they still lost.

If Oxy want's to blame anyone, they have to look nowhere but in the mirror.  Playing 10 non-conference games, ALL AT HOME, against weaker squads will never help.  If they duplicate this season next year, they must build their SOS so they are not in the same position.  For a school that is sending their football team to Hawaii to play a non-conference game, you would think the baseball team could bus over to AZ for 4+ games.

+1!

Play more Regionally Ranked teams. Trinity played 5. ( DeSales, Denison; BSC; TLU and Concordia TX).

CalLu played BVC, Whitworth Webster and Oxy.

Oxy only played CLU (2-2).

If you want to make the playoffs, then the AD and Coach need to read the Handbook to find the criteria that are used.

http://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/2016DIIIMBAPreChampsManual_20150203.pdf

Getting more games among the West Region teams, and hopefully pulling some good teams from the Midwest and Central Regions to Arizona or SoCal is the key to raising the SOS above .500. Another thing that would help would be to go north and play two or three NWC teams during the 3-game road trip.

[(509)Rat]

Add to that Whitworth who travelled to CA and TX to get games against, Cal lu, Whittier, Southwestern, UMHB, Concordia (TX) and an out of region SOS boost in Emory...

Whitworth learned the perils of not scheduling in-region games against d3 opponents long ago (albeit in a different sport) and have adjusted schedules and spent the necessary money across all sports accordingly. Oxy will learn, though how any program in the west is oblivious to selection processes at this point is beyond me. Something about the definition of insanity...

[Jack Parkman]

Add to that Whitworth who travelled to CA and TX to get games against, Cal lu, Whittier, Southwestern, UMHB, Concordia (TX) and an out of region SOS boost in Emory...

Whitworth learned the perils of not scheduling in-region games against d3 opponents long ago (albeit in a different sport) and have adjusted schedules and spent the necessary money across all sports accordingly. Oxy will learn, though how any program in the west is oblivious to selection processes at this point is beyond me. Something about the definition of insanity...

Yep, Whitworth has always traveled and that has really helped them with SOS and I'm sure recruiting.  I would rather them play a series with Cal Lu than Whittier (sorry Heys) but one game is better than none.

[Sluggerdad]

After winning 32 last year, but being left at home,  Cal Lu decided to take TWO trips -- one to Texas and one to Arizona -- just to increase their SOS in case they had to compete for a pool C bid.   The motto this year was 4 trips.  3 down, 1 to go.