2016 West Regional - Spokane, WA

[108 Stitches]

I stepped away from the computer to do some stuff after Whitworth went up 4-2 in the top of the 8th and thought they had this game under control....wrong. UTT comes back in the bottom of the frame and scores 4 to take the win 6-4. 

So tomorrow we have two Texas teams facing each other at noon and in the afternoon two PNW teams facing each other. Interesting story line. (are you listening D3 baseball.com)

[Purple Heys]

CWR gets to take their SoS back to wherever it is they come from.  2 and a BBQ.
#westerndoesnotmeanwestregion

[Purple Heys]

CWR gets to take their SoS back to wherever it is they come from.  2 and a BBQ.
#westerndoesnotmeanwestregion

Makes taking CLU's 2 and BBQ "performance" a bit more tolerable...

[Ralph Turner]

CWR gets to take their SoS back to wherever it is they come from.  2 and a BBQ.
#westerndoesnotmeanwestregion

Makes taking CLU's 2 and BBQ "performance" a bit more tolerable...

CLU lost in classical West Region Tourney style.

The following statement is Blatant West Region Tourney provincialism:

Consolation to the Kingsmen in that, CWRU would have been "run-ruled" in some conference tournaments!

[Ralph Turner]

I stepped away from the computer to do some stuff after Whitworth went up 4-2 in the top of the 8th and thought they had this game under control....wrong. UTT comes back in the bottom of the frame and scores 4 to take the win 6-4. 

So tomorrow we have two Texas teams facing each other at noon and in the afternoon two PNW teams facing each other. Interesting story line. (are you listening D3 baseball.com)

And UTTyler was the #4 regular season finisher in the ASC.
TU was only SCAC co-champs.
PLU won the tourney and sent Whit to Pool C.
CLU was only SCIAC co-champion.

The West Region is tough and balanced. The teams are battle-hardened to get to this point.
IMHO, the numbers are stacked against this isolated, numerically tiny region. Concordia TX, TLU and/or  Oxy would have made fine Pool C bids.

[108 Stitches]

Predictions for today's games

UTT vs Trinity: UTT will not be able to hold back the TU offense, and the Trinity bullpen is fresh. Trinity wins

PLU vs Whitworth: PLU's pitching depth carries them through in a close but higher scoring game.

PLU vs UTT in afternoon game. The battle of depleted bullpens. Not sure will go look at pitching stats and come back later with prediction. 

BTW I heard from someone there who thought CWRU would not have made some of the conference tournaments in the West. You listening NCAA selection committee? #makethewestthewest

[CAK72B]

And here is the example of why SOS is a good but misleading stat....if anything its shows a flaw in system which have have a negative result for the West every year...do you think the committee acknowledges this in the selection progress or just kinda sweeps it under the rug and pretends its not there?

[TexasBB]

Watched the streaming video of the UTT - Whitworth game last night.
In the bottom of the 8th UTT had plated one run and Whitworth made a pitching change. They pulled their starter after he surrendered one run on two singles and a stolen base.  The reliever entered with a runner on first with one out and leading by a score of 4-3.  The relief pitcher walked the first batter and gave up an infield single to load the bases. The next batter hit what amounted to a swinging bunt to first base side of the mound. The pitcher made a nice play fielding the ball then spinning and throwing out the runner at the plate. So now there were 2 outs and the bases were still loaded. The next batter hit double and cleared the bases.  That was a big clutch hit. Earlier in the game Whitworth had the bases loaded and could not score. Whitworth left a lot of stranded runners through the course of the game much like CLU did the day before against UTT.

[Ralph Turner]

And here is the example of why SOS is a good but misleading stat....if anything its shows a flaw in system which have have a negative result for the West every year...do you think the committee acknowledges this in the selection progress or just kinda sweeps it under the rug and pretends its not there?

CAK, this is a hard area.

You have to have some criteria or it just becomes "subjective" that "West/East/Central/South Region teams are better".

CWRU played a bunch of Regionally ranked teams this year, including UAA schools Emory and WashUStL.

You see a lot of snow bird teams holding spring training in the FL and they will play 8 games against some slightly better-than-average teams from several conferences. That boosts the SOS to some degree  which relates to the criteria in the Handbook.

I will root for UTT (ASC) against bid bad Trinity tonight, but we need the West to win another Championship to help the reputation

My hope would be that as many teams as possible in the conferences get to tournaments in Feb (Arizona)  (Even a Sul Ross going to Arizona helps the region.)  Then get good teams to come south to SoCal and Texas and get the exposure. Denison and DeSales came to San Antonio this year. Castleton State used to come to Tyler.

[ILVBB]

D3 is a hybrid system at best. Every year readers raise the same questions; mostly because they don't understand a system which for many doesn't make sense.

What we have is:

Regional Rankings (which ultimately mean nothing)
Pool C - National Rankings based upon Regional results.
Pool B – National Ranking based upon Regional results.

All of this which is built on SOS which is a National formula, that does not take into consideration the mathematical differences which result from either the "isolation" of the west or the "concentration" in the east.

Then you overlay it all with the "political" strength which results from the concentration of teams in the eastern portion of the country.

The result is you get a hybrid system for picking teams to play for a national championship. It took me 10-years to truly understand how it is likely to work (you never know because those that make the selections do it behind "closed" doors).

[Westside]

Predictions for today's games

PLU vs Whitworth: PLU's pitching depth carries them through in a close but higher scoring game.

If anything, PLU's lack of pitching depth should make this a high scoring game! I mean... PLU literally brought their closer in in the 3rd inning yesterday, he threw seven innings! I think Whitworth's starter is better than PLU's, but, on paper, this will be a slugfest.

[Westside]

Updated Schedule:
http://whitworthpirates.com/sports/bsb/2015-16/2016ncaatournament

Round One:

#1 Trinity (TX) vs. #6 Pacific Lutheran
Trinity wins 7-3.

#2 Cal Lutheran vs. #5 Texas-Tyler
Texas-Tyler wins 4-3.

#3 Case Western Reserve vs. #4 Whitworth
Whitworth wins 8-5.

Round Two:

#2 Cal Lutheran vs. #6 Pacific Lutheran
Pacific Lutheran wins 8-6.
Cal Lutheran eliminated.

#1 Trinity (TX) vs. #3 Case Western Reserve
Trinity wins 10-0.
Case Western Reserve eliminated.

#4 Whitworth vs. #5 Texas-Tyler
Texas-Tyler wins 6-4.

Round Three:

#1 Trinity (TX) vs. #5 Texas-Tyler

#4 Whitworth vs. #6 Pacific Lutheran

Loser of Game One vs. Winners of Game Two

[Ron Boerger]

Interestingly, UT-T and Trinity have faced off once this season in a similar situation (third game in a weekend tournament) with Trinity taking an 11-6 win in Tyler.   One difference is that Trinity won't face Cason Adams, who went five innings, allowing 5 ER.   Michael Walker started for Trinity and could again today; in his shortest stint of the season he allowed 6 runs (4 earned) in 3.2 IP. 

Possible starters today:
UT-Tyler:    Max Page (3-2, 12 App/3 GS, 31.2 IP, 3.41 ERA, .281 OBA) or Tyler Stallings (5-1, 17 App/7 GS, 44.0 IP, 4.09 ERA, .285 OBA).   Page last started against HSU last week, allowing 1 ER in 7 IP.   Stallings hasn't started a game in over a month, when he gave up 1 ER in 6 IP versus Centenary.  He's had 5 appearances of an inning or two since.
Trinity:   Walker (8-0, 10 App/9 GS, 59.2 IP, 3.02 ERA, .264 OBA) or Troy Nelson (5-1, 12 App/8 GS, 46.2 IP, 3.28 ERA, .240 OBA)

[Purple Heys]

D3 is a hybrid system at best. Every year readers raise the same questions; mostly because they don't understand a system which for many doesn't make sense.

What we have is:

Regional Rankings (which ultimately mean nothing)
Pool C - National Rankings based upon Regional results.
Pool B – National Ranking based upon Regional results.

All of this which is built on SOS which is a National formula, that does not take into consideration the mathematical differences which result from either the "isolation" of the west or the "concentration" in the east.

Then you overlay it all with the "political" strength which results from the concentration of teams in the eastern portion of the country.

The result is you get a hybrid system for picking teams to play for a national championship. It took me 10-years to truly understand how it is likely to work (you never know because those that make the selections do it behind "closed" doors).

Great info...SoS is crutch (IMHO) to help justify an assertion that "political" strength has nothing to do with the process, when quite obviously it does; as SoS skews East.  CSW and their 13 losses to questionably "strong" teams had no business being added to the West Region playoff over Oxy for sure and CTX, or TLU from a competitive, not formulaic point of view.  Although I will stipulate CTX and TLU's 15 losses are not very becoming.

West Region jingoism rocks!   

[108 Stitches]

Great stuff Ron! In his interview from the last game Scannell said they were going with Walker. He has the experience and has pitched in many big games so it makes sense. That said any pitcher will likely have a short leash as they have a pen full of guys who are fresh can get it done. The PLU/Whitworth game could be a slugfest. There is no question in my mind that TLU was a better team than CWRU, I did not see Oxy or CTX, but I am sure both were likely better teams also.