2016 National Championship Contenders

[Brother Flounder]

My Final 4 for next season will be Whitworth, Lycoming, Kenyon, and Tufts. Bold but I think it could happen. Amherst won't get back to the Final 4 especially after losing Bull and NPL. Loras will have a good shot but think Kenyon gets past them. Kenyon and Lycoming in similar situations...both top 10 nationally last season and combined the 2 teams lose 1 player. I would keep my eye on both squads throughout the year. Whitworth had a great record but fell off early in the tournament. I think with their stronger schedule they will be more competitive come tournament time and make a surprise run to the Final 4. Tufts will get back to the Final 4 after a tough exit from a season ago. Well coached, talented, and will be battled tested which will spark their run to another Final 4.

Kenyon should be very strong next year.  They beat Tufts last year in the Sweet 16 in a very even game on Kenyon's home field. I do believe Tufts would have made it to the final 4, and farther if they had they won that game.  I think Tufts will come out slower next year but may gel later in the season.  They are losing many starters, especially 3 attacking midfielders, and their left back.
Patel was very underrated and so steady. Kayne, a 4 year starter, was Tufts most consistent player the past 4 years, and best all-around player on the team.  While his passing ability and vision are often talked about, it was his tenacious defense that was key. They'll also miss Pinheiro's consistency and Brown's pace, and Connor Schaible's experience.  The 2016 class had the best record in Tufts' modern era and an NCAA championship.  The coach is excellent and well liked by the players. They key will be to see how the new starters play together.  There may be a shuffling process in the beginning of the season.

[D3soccerwatcher]

My Final 4 for next season will be Whitworth, Lycoming, Kenyon, and Tufts. Bold but I think it could happen. Amherst won't get back to the Final 4 especially after losing Bull and NPL. Loras will have a good shot but think Kenyon gets past them. Kenyon and Lycoming in similar situations...both top 10 nationally last season and combined the 2 teams lose 1 player. I would keep my eye on both squads throughout the year. Whitworth had a great record but fell off early in the tournament. I think with their stronger schedule they will be more competitive come tournament time and make a surprise run to the Final 4. Tufts will get back to the Final 4 after a tough exit from a season ago. Well coached, talented, and will be battled tested which will spark their run to another Final 4.

I like your thought process here -really well done.  A few comments just from my perspective.  I don't have great rationale for this but I just don't think Tufts makes it back to a Final 4 for some time - I could be wrong but that's just my guess.  Lycoming, while very good at what they do will have to face Messiah on Messiah's very wide (and long) grass pitch.  It's just been historically difficult to beat Messiah on their home pitch.  And if the conference play-offs somehow end up at Messiah instead of on Lycoming's narrow turf field, well I'm just not sure how that will turn out for Lycoming.  That environment at Messiah has to be one of the the most difficult away venues in D3 (especially in the play-offs) - wide grass pitch (Messiah seems to know how to use every inch of it), the Messiah tradition, and all those fans they reportedly seem to get at virtually every game.  All that being said Lycoming was a very good team last year, and as you point out they return at virtually full strength for 2016.  No doubt they will be very good again.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

My Final 4 for next season will be Whitworth, Lycoming, Kenyon, and Tufts. Bold but I think it could happen. Amherst won't get back to the Final 4 especially after losing Bull and NPL. Loras will have a good shot but think Kenyon gets past them. Kenyon and Lycoming in similar situations...both top 10 nationally last season and combined the 2 teams lose 1 player. I would keep my eye on both squads throughout the year. Whitworth had a great record but fell off early in the tournament. I think with their stronger schedule they will be more competitive come tournament time and make a surprise run to the Final 4. Tufts will get back to the Final 4 after a tough exit from a season ago. Well coached, talented, and will be battled tested which will spark their run to another Final 4.

I like your thought process here -really well done.  A few comments just from my perspective.  I don't have great rationale for this but I just don't think Tufts makes it back to a Final 4 for some time - I could be wrong but that's just my guess.  Lycoming, while very good at what they do will have to face Messiah on Messiah's very wide (and long) grass pitch.  It's just been historically difficult to beat Messiah on their home pitch.  And if the conference play-offs somehow end up at Messiah instead of on Lycoming's narrow turf field, well I'm just not sure how that will turn out for Lycoming.  That environment at Messiah has to be one of the the most difficult away venues in D3 (especially in the play-offs) - wide grass pitch (Messiah seems to know how to use every inch of it), the Messiah tradition, and all those fans they reportedly seem to get at virtually every game.  All that being said Lycoming was a very good team last year, and as you point out they return at virtually full strength for 2016.  No doubt they will be very good again.

I also agree with bits and pieces of both posts here. Whitworth would definitely be the "Cinderella" pick out of the four but I like the pick. Kenyon is a strong choice as is Loras as you narrowed it down. Lycoming is also a strong pick and any of the top teams from the Mid-Atlantic region can get to the final 4. It's that competitive! As for Tufts, I have to lean with D3SoccerWatcher and others in earlier posts. I just don't think they will be strong enough to get to the final 4. Will they make the tournament and possibly make a run? Sure. But the final 4 is a stretch for me right now. I would take someone like Oneonta St or Ohio Wesleyan if the bracket worked itself out as such.

As for the Lycoming vs Messiah hype, I agree that Messiah will be a difficult place to play for anybody. BUT even if, hypothetically, Lycoming loses at Messiah twice this season, their SOS would be easily good enough to get them an at-large bid and from there they can make a run in the tournament. They don't necessarily have to beat Messiah at all this coming season and they can still make a final 4 run. With all that being said, 2 losses to Messiah plus their brutal schedule will be tough to get an at-large. Lycoming has a difficult first 5 games. Once that stretch is over then we can discuss how good they really are. But playing Rowan, @F&M, @Susquehanna, @Eastern, and @Haverford should give us a good idea of where they stand.

As for my opinion on the matter, I think the Commonwealth will be a two bid league this season (I also thought this last year and Messiah was a win/tie away from making that happen). As D3SoccerWatcher mentioned, Messiah at home is one of, if not, the toughest venues to play at in the country. But this Lycoming team has already proved that they can beat Messiah home or away over the past 3 years and I do not think you will see any fear in that locker room when having to play vs Messiah, home or away. That was pretty evident last season as they handled Messiah's offensive efforts with ease. This has been a fun game to circle on the calendar the past few seasons and I think the curiosity and hype for this match will continue to grow over the next few years. From a neutral perspective, does anybody think that the mental aspect of this game favors Lycoming recently? It's got to be in Messiah's head before the game they they couldn't score last season and they play the exact same team, which is most likely going to be stronger than the previous year. That mental edge has to favor Lycoming going in to the game...but the home field advantage for Messiah or a quick goal can easily flip that in a second! Good topic for discussion D3SW and Shooter!

My final 4 at present day would be Trinity (Tx), OWU, Rowan, and Stevens. It changes every week 

[D3soccerwatcher]

MA Fan - Excellent post.  Great perspective.

[lastguyoffthebench]

Calvin 42-3-4 the last 2 seasons.   Lose 5 starters, but should be dangerous as the season progresses.

Nick Groenewold ---  NSCAA 1st team AA, D3Soccer 1st team AA, MIAA MVP
Taylor Pruis ----------D3soccer Third Team AA, 2nd team NSCAA All-Central
Niko Giantsopoulos - 1st team All-MIAA, 2014 AA
Sam Hanover ------  26GP 26GS   11G  1A
John Fillipini  --------2nd team All-MIAA 26GP 26GS

[lastguyoffthebench]

Oneonta St is getting stripped from the spine...  They lose, 6-7 starters;

Jake Sutherland   8G 4A
Dylan Williams     6G 3A
Cory Santangelo  7G 2A   RETURNING
Jared Van Brunt   6G 3A
Greg Silvestro      3G 9A
Hans Purtell         3G 6A  RETURNING
Zef Saljanin         4G 0A
Anthony Passiatore  3G   RETURNING

Lose Matteo in the back and Pellegrino between the pipes... I'll rescind my statement for them to win it this year.     

Leaning Calvin at the moment.  Looking forward to KICKIN or Puerto Espin preview of Loras.   Not sure what pieces they lose, but the Duhawks are always in the mix.

Things are aligning for SLU... could this be the year they reach the FINAL FOUR

All things NESCAC, it was Tufts turn then Amherst... what are the chances Middlebury goes deepest in the tournament this year?

South Atlantic looks to be wide open with the depth of the NJAC, resurgence of the ODAC, and CNU/Salisbury...

Messiah should be ready to come out of the Mid-Atlantic and push for the FINAL FOUR again.

[EasyGoer27]

I think you will find that Oneonta has reloaded.  Their class from last year was very strong.  Hard to get time on that team.  It wouldn't surprise me if there is no drop off at all.  Another team that has a deep bench and could be even better this year is SLU.  I don't know much about the young players outside the northeast, so that's my focus.  Conn College could also surprise some people.........

[MidwestGrinder]

Loras loses 7 starters and 14 players overall

Calvin loses 5 starters, as lastguy mentioned, specifically Nick Groenewold (arguably the best CB in the nation last year), a third team AA in Taylor Pruis, and a nationally top 5 keeper in Niko Giantsopoulos.

OWU loses 5 starters and 12 players overall

Wheaton lose 5 starters including Hollingsworth, Golz and starting GK Paprocki.

I realize that these 4 teams are some of the historically strongest programs in D3 soccer, but this would not be the year I would peg any of them for the Final Four.

[Mr.Right]

Middlebury will contend to win Nescac in 2016 and to go deep in the NCAA's... NCAA Final 4 would be a stretch unless things align their way...i.e Home field advantage, good bracket, couple upsets, etc....

Reason-----After last season's NCAA snub and their season ending in PK's in the Nescac Semi's at home to Wesleyan should have this team FOCUSED all year and for every game...They return almost everyone important except for Deklan Robinson and a couple role players but honestly they are all replaceable. Robinson will be missed in the air but they have plenty of replacements chomping at the bit. Conrad will be back along with Glasst and their GK..The biggest problem I have had with this team in recent years is they lack a true playmaker in midfield..As long as they keep hoofing it, which they will, then they can get away with it up to a point but against better teams they will not be able to keep possession for long periods and therefore will have fewer SOG. However, they will feast as usual on set pieces and defensive miscues.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Oneonta St is getting stripped from the spine...  They lose, 6-7 starters;

Leaning Calvin at the moment.  Looking forward to KICKIN or Puerto Espin preview of Loras.   Not sure what pieces they lose, but the Duhawks are always in the mix.

Things are aligning for SLU... could this be the year they reach the FINAL FOUR

All things NESCAC, it was Tufts turn then Amherst... what are the chances Middlebury goes deepest in the tournament this year?

South Atlantic looks to be wide open with the depth of the NJAC, resurgence of the ODAC, and CNU/Salisbury...

Messiah should be ready to come out of the Mid-Atlantic and push for the FINAL FOUR again.

I cannot see Messiah making the final 4 this upcoming season. I believe they will make the tournament, but with their GK issues I just don't see it happening for them.

[Brother Flounder]

Oneonta St is getting stripped from the spine...  They lose, 6-7 starters;

Leaning Calvin at the moment.  Looking forward to KICKIN or Puerto Espin preview of Loras.   Not sure what pieces they lose, but the Duhawks are always in the mix.

Things are aligning for SLU... could this be the year they reach the FINAL FOUR

All things NESCAC, it was Tufts turn then Amherst... what are the chances Middlebury goes deepest in the tournament this year?

South Atlantic looks to be wide open with the depth of the NJAC, resurgence of the ODAC, and CNU/Salisbury...

Messiah should be ready to come out of the Mid-Atlantic and push for the FINAL FOUR again.

I cannot see Messiah making the final 4 this upcoming season. I believe they will make the tournament, but with their GK issues I just don't see it happening for them.

Middlebury has a chance if they brought in some possession and smart midfielders...

[blooter442]

Middlebury will contend to win Nescac in 2016 and to go deep in the NCAA's... NCAA Final 4 would be a stretch unless things align their way...

The biggest problem I have had with this team in recent years is they lack a true playmaker in midfield..As long as they keep hoofing it, which they will, then they can get away with it up to a point but against better teams they will not be able to keep possession for long periods and therefore will have fewer SOG. However, they will feast as usual on set pieces and defensive miscues.

100% agree. They seem to be quite good on both sides of the ball (offense and defense) but there is the missing link "between the lines" of midfield and attack.

[All NESCAC]

Middlebury will contend to win Nescac in 2016 and to go deep in the NCAA's... NCAA Final 4 would be a stretch unless things align their way...i.e Home field advantage, good bracket, couple upsets, etc....

Reason-----After last season's NCAA snub and their season ending in PK's in the Nescac Semi's at home to Wesleyan should have this team FOCUSED all year and for every game...They return almost everyone important except for Deklan Robinson and a couple role players but honestly they are all replaceable. Robinson will be missed in the air but they have plenty of replacements chomping at the bit. Conrad will be back along with Glasst and their GK..The biggest problem I have had with this team in recent years is they lack a true playmaker in midfield..As long as they keep hoofing it, which they will, then they can get away with it up to a point but against better teams they will not be able to keep possession for long periods and therefore will have fewer SOG. However, they will feast as usual on set pieces and defensive miscues.

Spot on and in agreement with Mr Right.

[Shooter McGavin]

Can't remember if I posted one in earlier threads but since it is the opening week of play I wanted to have a little fun and do a top 25 poll based off of last years performance, this years recruiting classes, a little bit of bias  and just gut feeling. Feel free to agree or disagree! That's why polls are always fun.

1.) Kenyon
2.) Haverford
3.) Loras
4.) Oneonta St.
5.) Amherst
6.) Calvin
7.) Trinity (Tx)
8.) Lycoming
9.) F&M
10.) Whitworth
11.) Montclair St.
12.) Rowan
13.) St. Lawrence
14.) Wheaton (Ill.)
15.) Ohio Wesleyan
16.) Tufts
17.) Middlebury
18.) Dickinson
19.) Brandeis
20.) Chicago
21.) RPI
22.) Wash. & Lee
23.) Stevens
24.) Redlands
25.) MIT

RV: UW-W, DePauw, Eastern, CMU, Thomas More, RUC, Scranton, CWR, Wash. U, Ohio Northern, Plattsburgh St., Messiah, Gordon, Colorado College

[Shooter McGavin]

My Final 4 for next season will be Whitworth, Lycoming, Kenyon, and Tufts. Bold but I think it could happen. Amherst won't get back to the Final 4 especially after losing Bull and NPL. Loras will have a good shot but think Kenyon gets past them. Kenyon and Lycoming in similar situations...both top 10 nationally last season and combined the 2 teams lose 1 player. I would keep my eye on both squads throughout the year. Whitworth had a great record but fell off early in the tournament. I think with their stronger schedule they will be more competitive come tournament time and make a surprise run to the Final 4. Tufts will get back to the Final 4 after a tough exit from a season ago. Well coached, talented, and will be battled tested which will spark their run to another Final 4.

I like your thought process here -really well done.  A few comments just from my perspective.  I don't have great rationale for this but I just don't think Tufts makes it back to a Final 4 for some time - I could be wrong but that's just my guess.  Lycoming, while very good at what they do will have to face Messiah on Messiah's very wide (and long) grass pitch.  It's just been historically difficult to beat Messiah on their home pitch.  And if the conference play-offs somehow end up at Messiah instead of on Lycoming's narrow turf field, well I'm just not sure how that will turn out for Lycoming.  That environment at Messiah has to be one of the the most difficult away venues in D3 (especially in the play-offs) - wide grass pitch (Messiah seems to know how to use every inch of it), the Messiah tradition, and all those fans they reportedly seem to get at virtually every game.  All that being said Lycoming was a very good team last year, and as you point out they return at virtually full strength for 2016.  No doubt they will be very good again.

Don't know how I missed this last month! Sorry about that D3SW! I definitely think it will be tough for anyone to have to go thru Messiah at Shoemaker Field. With that being said I don't see Lycoming losing a conference game this year. Messiah on the other hand will probably not lose either so it will come down to that match-up with Lycoming. That is a long ways away but the thought of that game is already exciting.

Personally, I think Lycoming has too much firepower and experience returning and if their incoming class is as good as advertised as in other posts then they will be even better than last season. Also, Lycoming has proven they can win at Messiah in the last 3 years which is more than others can say. I don't think they will be fearful of travelling to Messiah but we will find out soon enough. I imagine the Falcon faithful will be out in full for that game!