UAA 2016

[swibbles]

My predictions - presented without explanation, as the UAA often defies any explanation.

Chicago 1-0 Brandeis
Emory 1-0 CWRU
UR 2-2 CMU
Wash 3-1 NYU

Wash 1-1 Brandeis
UR 2-0 CWRU
Emory 0-0 CMU
Chicago 4-0 NYU

[Mr.Right]

At 5-3-3 Brandeis has one last shot to salvage its season. The best part of playing in a tough league is the number of opportunities a team has at snagging Regionally Ranked Wins. They have 7 games left against quite possibly 5 ranked teams when all is said and done. Chicago, UR, Emory, Wash U and Clark. They are going to have to go at worse 5-2-0 or 5-1-1 to have a shot at a Pool C. It is a really tough ask for a side that has struggled a bit this year but besides the Wheaton game IMO they have had more issues with finishing the past month. Ocel and Flahive are the only guys scoring as Vieira has been VERY Quiet this year along with Jastremski. Bloots, do we know what the Miskin injury is? Anyhow, Brandeis still has control of its own destiny with a MONSTER weekend coming up.

[swibbles]

Mr. Right and Blooter: Did Brandeis graduate most of the core that was so good in 2014 and 2015? Is that what is responsible for the drop off or are there other factors?

[blooter442]

At 5-3-3 Brandeis has one last shot to salvage its season. The best part of playing in a tough league is the number of opportunities a team has at snagging Regionally Ranked Wins. They have 7 games left against quite possibly 5 ranked teams when all is said and done. Chicago, UR, Emory, Wash U and Clark. They are going to have to go at worse 5-2-0 or 5-1-1 to have a shot at a Pool C. It is a really tough ask for a side that has struggled a bit this year but besides the Wheaton game IMO they have had more issues with finishing the past month. Ocel and Flahive are the only guys scoring as Vieira has been VERY Quiet this year along with Jastremski. Bloots, do we know what the Miskin injury is? Anyhow, Brandeis still has control of its own destiny with a MONSTER weekend coming up.

No idea what the Miskin injury is. If they were to finish 5-1-1 I'd say they'd have a decent shot at Pool C, but 5-2-0 is probably too much to ask given IMHO. They had their backs up against the wall a few years ago - 2013 - when they were 11-4 after this upcoming weekend and then went 3-0-1 down the stretch to finish 14-4-1 and get a Pool C, but that team had a lot more solidity on defense than this one appears to.

Mr. Right and Blooter: Did Brandeis graduate most of the core that was so good in 2014 and 2015? Is that what is responsible for the drop off or are there other factors?

Yes and no.

2014 saw Savonen and Soboff graduate, and those were two huge losses. Graffy, the GK, graduated as well, and he was a very good goalkeeper but Woodhouse did a very good job in net last year, so while the finishing suffered last year due to the two huge losses up front, Brandeis still won a ton of games because they had an extensive amount of know-how in those situations.

2015 saw Lanahan, Picard, and Lynch play their final seasons. Lanahan was perhaps the biggest loss, as he was a monster at CB and rarely got beat. Picard was also a very good DM and Lynch did very well at LB his junior and senior years. In summary, they only lost three guys from last year's XI, but two of those were part of the back four, so they had to replace those two with a CB who played a total of 70 minutes in his first three years and a freshman LB who was adjusting to the system.

I have slated the defense's lack of composure at times this year, but when you have a brand new CB who's supposed to replace a two-time All-American and a brand new LB who is replacing one of the best utility players the program has seen, as well as graduating a 4-year starter at DM, you're obviously losing a lot of leadership and I think that's where the struggles defensively have come from. Additionally, having Miskin and Hacunda - who is completing his medical hardship season this year from when the tore his ACL - injured hasn't helped. I can't say that I find fault with Coven and Margolis, either, as Brandeis was in 16 one-goal games last year, and though they won all of them, you don't just go and take out your All-American CB and risk the result just to be able to throw on his replacement to get experience.

In summary: While losing your GK plus 5 of 10 outfield players is a lot, they haven't lost that much when you realize that half of the current XI started in 2014-15. However, the losses they have had have been in big positions. The majority of the offense graduated after the 2014 season, but Brandeis still won a ton of games last year thanks to their strong defense. Last year, however, they graduated two of their biggest defensive leaders, as well as a 4-year starter at DM, and I think the problem has been that the players who have come in didn't have much experience in terms of how to handle the big moments (e.g. the 3 OT losses this year). Those are games that Brandeis would have won in prior years - at the start of this year, they hadn't lost in OT since 2013, and were 7-0-3 in overtime since that defeat - but they have lacked the composure this year. Of course, the new players aren't solely responsible for defeats - you win as a team and you lose as a team - but Brandeis has missed the leadership that brought it a good amount of success in 2014 and 2015.

[swibbles]

Excellent explanation. Thank you.

[Mr.Right]

Chicago v Brandeis about 10 minutes in and Brandeis is all over Chicago, high pressing like mad and look very determined to get a result tonight. Chicago with some bad early giveaways to start

[Mr.Right]

Brandeis up 1-0 almost Halftime. I missed the goal but from the way Ocel got congratulated when he came off the field I am guessing he snagged it. This would be a much needed and monster win for Brandeis. To be honest Chicago does not look like a #1 team in the nation so far.

[blooter442]

Brandeis up 1-0 almost Halftime. I missed the goal but from the way Ocel got congratulated when he came off the field I am guessing he snagged it. This would be a much needed and monster win for Brandeis. To be honest Chicago does not look like a #1 team in the nation so far.

Vieira got it on a rebound; apparently his first of the season. If (and that's a big if) Brandeis can get the win it would be the second year in a row that they've won at the #1 ranked team in the country to hand them their first defeat, as Brandeis beat Tufts on the road last year, 1-0, and the Jumbos were undefeated until then as Chicago is now.

Even so, Rochester went into half 1-0 up at Chicago, and we all know how that ended up for them, so definitely not counting my chickens.

[Mr.Right]

Well you never know in these games as sometimes it can be a tale of two halves but Brandeis looked very determined 1st half. Good for Vieira on the goal as maybe that gets him going this season.

[Mr.Right]

Chicago defeats Brandeis 2-1 in OT...2nd Half looked like a Nescac contest with the ball flying around everywhere. Neither team could string 3-4 passes together on the ground. I will say that 2nd Half Chicago played much better. They have 3-4 absolute studs and have very good team speed and size. I do not remember Brandeis registering a SOG all 2nd Half. They lacked the size against Chicago and because of Chicago's pressure they were forced to play long balls which Chicago ate up. Chicago's backline has wheels and Chicago is a  definite Top 10 team in the country. I am not sure they are a #1 team in the country but they will be right there when all is said and done. As for Brandeis, they are 5-4-3 and looked really dejected because they had a 1-0 lead with 15 minutes left. Their  season is most likely done unless they run the table but I just do not see this bunch doing it. They just do not possess as well as they did in 2014(I thought their best side)

[blooter442]

Chicago defeats Brandeis 2-1 in OT...2nd Half looked like a Nescac contest with the ball flying around everywhere. Neither team could string 3-4 passes together on the ground. I will say that 2nd Half Chicago played much better. They have 3-4 absolute studs and have very good team speed and size. I do not remember Brandeis registering a SOG all 2nd Half. They lacked the size against Chicago and because of Chicago's pressure they were forced to play long balls which Chicago ate up. Chicago's backline has wheels and Chicago is a  definite Top 10 team in the country. I am not sure they are a #1 team in the country but they will be right there when all is said and done. As for Brandeis, they are 5-4-3 and looked really dejected because they had a 1-0 lead with 15 minutes left. Their  season is most likely done unless they run the table but I just do not see this bunch doing it. They just do not possess as well as they did in 2014(I thought their best side)

That's pretty much the season, right there. And what will be more frustrating for them is that the winning goal was really, really sloppy. Flahive misjudged a header when he was the clear favorite to win it, Brito as a center back was caught way too far up the pitch, especially since there was already a man challenging for the second ball. Then when Chicago came away with it the only guy back for Brandeis was Robinson, who was never going to get to the ball before the Chicago kid. Just another example of a lack of composure in a big situation this year - as I said yesterday, some of it is understandable given the new roles people are playing, but you'd still think they'd have figured out how to get out of 2OT given they've lost 3 games in the 101st minute or later.

[blooter442]

Looks like Chicago opened the floodgates against NYU. Maroons were up 1-0 at the half on an own goal and the game seemed in the balance, but Chicago got 4 goals in 20 second half minutes.

Brandeis upset WashU on the road, which was especially impressive since the Judges went 1-0 down. Happy to say I called it.  I believe it's too little, too late for Brandeis in terms of an NCAA bid, as any team whose name is not Rochester would generally have a tough time swaying the selection committee with 4 losses and 3 draws, but wins over two teams in the NSCAA top 20 certainly doesn't hurt.

Emory and Carnegie drew 1-1, as did Case and Rochester. Should Chicago win and Emory lose in the next UAA game, the Maroons will have clinched the UAA with two games to spare.

[Mr.Right]

I was a bit shocked to not see Brandeis in the New England RR at least at #11 / # 12 with their SOS and Wins v Ranked. They beat Clark this week and if they finish 4-0-0 and have a 11-4-3 record with about 5 ranked wins I believe they will get a Pool C out of New England. hey will need some help though. They have to hope Clark and Emory and Wash U stay ranked an d must get some teams ahead of them in the New England Rankings to drop off. They need Williams, Conn, Babson and Coast Guard to lose some games. All very possible.

[Mr.Right]

6 of the 8 UAA teams are regionally ranked. You have to figure the UAA is getting 5 bids minimum and possibly 6 if Brandeis wins out. Now I am a believer in the league and understand because of the different regions this will and could happen but if the UAA takes 25% or more of the Pool C's we might have an uproar. I still think Emory, UR and Brandeis have work to do and if any of then finish 1-2-0 they might be in serious trouble. Obviously, Brandeis needs to at least go 2-0-1 and beat Emory and UR. The NYU game will not make a difference even if they do not win it. Brandeis with a 5-3-2 RvR will be VERY HARD to leave out. The committee loves RvR and loves to see half your schedule against ranked teams especially getting 5 wins against ranked teams. Will be interesting to follow

[blooter442]

6 of the 8 UAA teams are regionally ranked. You have to figure the UAA is getting 5 bids minimum and possibly 6 if Brandeis wins out. Now I am a believer in the league and understand because of the different regions this will and could happen but if the UAA takes 25% or more of the Pool C's we might have an uproar. I still think Emory, UR and Brandeis have work to do and if any of then finish 1-2-0 they might be in serious trouble. Obviously, Brandeis needs to at least go 2-0-1 and beat Emory and UR. The NYU game will not make a difference even if they do not win it. Brandeis with a 5-3-2 RvR will be VERY HARD to leave out. The committee loves RvR and loves to see half your schedule against ranked teams especially getting 5 wins against ranked teams. Will be interesting to follow

Even as an alum of said school, if Brandeis fails to make the tournament - which I don't think they will - I can't say that I feel that it'd be a big injustice. They ultimately made their own bed: they lost 3 games in 2OT this year, including one in the last minute of the second overtime. That is unacceptable if you have aspirations of being an NCAA team, particularly in a tough conference where there is no conference tournament. In the UAA, there is no opportunity for a team to be like Babson last year and go 10-6-2 in the regular season and win two playoff games and fall backwards into the tournament. (Not suggesting that Babson wasn't deserving of winning the NEWMAC, but it's safe to say that they wouldn't have had a prayer as far as an NCAA bid goes if it wasn't for the conference tournament - and a far less difficult one than the NESCAC tournament, at that.) Back to Brandeis, the other loss was the game against Wheaton - where they were up 4-1 with 30 minutes to play - in OT, and it has to be the first time that I've seen a Brandeis team concede 5 goals. In fact, the last time they conceded 4 goals was - I believe - against WashU back in 2010, which was before I was even a student.

Of course, should they win out and WashU, Emory, and Clark stay ranked, I think there's a slight chance, but I simply don't see both of those things happening. Rochester may have been overrated for a while, as they played a grand total of one ranked opponent in the first half of the season and have come back down to earth with 4 blemishes in their last 5 games, but they are always a tough out. And Emory could well be out of the RRs if they lose to Brandeis.

Ultimately, all 4 losses were due to defensive mistakes, so it wasn't like they were unfortunate by hitting the woodwork multiple times or could feel aggrieved by big decisions. You can't have that many blemishes and expect that other teams' results will take care of your destiny.