Mid-Atlantic Region 2016

[Mr.Right]

Never said Amherst and Midd do not schedule cupcakes but Nescac is a much tougher league week in / week out then the MACC...So teams do not need to schedule as tough out of conference because their SOS will already be very high. Just like the UAA

[paclassic89]

The thing about SOS is that it's so tough to reliably schedule strong teams week in and week out.  Plus there is the issue with having to play half of your games in conference and basically being at the mercy of other teams records like you said.  Looking at the MACC,  Lycoming and Alvernia both underperformed and then you have 3 other teams with awful records (stevenson, albright, widener)  albright is never any good but stevenson and widener typically can manage over .500 seasons.  Also, Etown jumping ship on the conference really hurt us.  It would be a fairly strong conference with Messiah, Etown,  LVC, Lycoming, Alvernia, Hood etc

In other news, LVC lost to Alvernia 1-0 in OT which effectively ends their faint pool C hopes.  It was an fairly even game and should be a great semi-final matchup next Thursday. 

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

MAF Regional Power Rankings
1. Messiah (15-0-3)
2. F&M (12-2-3)
3. Fords (11-3-3)
4. Etown (12-2-2)
5. Scranton (12-3-1)
6. Hopkins (12-3-2)
7. Leb Val (13-3-0)
8. Eastern (14-3-1)
9. Drew (10-4-3)
10. Misericordia (11-5-2)
--------------------------------------
11. Gettysburg (9-4-3)
12. Lycoming (9-6-4)


*Not based off what I think NCAA's will be, but rather who I believe the best teams are right now in order, hence the "power" rankings*

As for NCAA's....thinking something like this:

1. Messiah
2. F&M
3. Fords
4. Etown
5. Scranton
6. Hopkins
7. Drew
8. Misericordia
9. Gettysburg/LVC/Eastern/Lyco

[NEPAFAN]

MAF Regional Power Rankings
1. Messiah (15-0-3)
2. F&M (12-2-3)
3. Fords (11-3-3)
4. Etown (12-2-2)
5. Scranton (12-3-1)
6. Hopkins (12-3-2)
7. Leb Val (13-3-0)
8. Eastern (14-3-1)
9. Drew (10-4-3)
10. Misericordia (11-5-2)
--------------------------------------
11. Gettysburg (9-4-3)
12. Lycoming (9-6-4)


*Not based off what I think NCAA's will be, but rather who I believe the best teams are right now in order, hence the "power" rankings*

As for NCAA's....thinking something like this:

1. Messiah
2. F&M
3. Fords
4. Etown
5. Scranton
6. Hopkins
7. Drew
8. Misericordia
9. Gettysburg/LVC/Eastern/Lyco

Can the Landmark get 2 teams into the dance?

[phillyfan12]

Interesting one today with Eastern vs. Kings. I think Eastern are poised to take this one like they did in the first meeting.

Also, I think Misericordia takes down DeSales while Hood ends Arcadia's run as they've limped into the playoffs (winless in their last three).

Interesting that Messiah and LVC play on Thursday in the semi-finals. I think this is better than playing the semifinal on Saturday and the final on Sunday like the Centennial does

[Flying Weasel]

The MAC Commonwealth and Freedom always play their semifinals midweek. and their finals on Saturday.  The Freedom with no 4-5 play-in game, typically opts for Tuesday and Wednesday semifinals, alternating year-by-year which gender plays which night.  The Commonwealth with the 4-5 play-in games, has the semifinals on Wednesday and Thursday, alternately between the genders, and the play-in games being two days before the semifinals (Monday or Tuesday depending).

[Madared]

You can add the Landmark to the list on conferences playing a semi-final game mid-week.

For those of you interested, tomorrow's games feature....

#3 Drew at #2 Scranton:  Scranton hosts a semi-final for the second year and has an opportunity to avenge the home field 2-1 loss to Drew earlier in the season. 

#4 Susquehanna at #1 Elizabethtown: This one played to a 2-2 draw on Susquehanna's turf just 10 days ago, so it could be tighter than a #1 vs. #4 seed suggests.

[Mr.Right]

I would be very careful for Etown to make sure they do not lose that semi-final game. They only have 2 ranked wins and 1 of the v Hobart might drop off. With only 1 ranked win ans a SOS of possibly under.540 they could drop below Scranton and Haverford to #5 ib the region and be squarely on the outside of the bubble IMO. If they win it they should be fine.

[Shooter McGavin]

For comparison sake I want to put some resumes side by side with no names...please don't look them up but rather comment back with who you think has the stronger resume. I feel as if this region isn't using the full criteria to its effect.

Team A: 14-3-1, WP: .806%, SOS: .499, RvR 1-0-0, 4 blemishes
Team B: 10-4-3, WP: 676%, SOS: .536, RvR 1-1-1, 7 blemishes
Team C: 12-3-2, WP: .765%, SOS: .511, RvR 1-2-0, 5 blemishes
Team D: 9-6-4, WP: .579%, SOS: .574, RvR 2-4-1, 10 blemishes
Team E: 11-5-2, WP: .667%, SOS: .527, RvR 0-1-1, 7 blemishes
Team F: 9-6-2, WP: .588%, SOS: .525, RvR 0-2-2, 8 blemishes
Team G: 9-4-3, WP: .656%, SOS: .557, RvR 0-4-1, 7 blemishes


4 of the above resumes made the rankings and 3 did not. I am curious how you would rank them if you were the committee and saw this in front of you. Rank the above teams with 1 being the best and 7 being last solely based off of the resumes.


Here are mine:

1. Team C
2. Team B
3. Team D
4. Team G
5. Team E
6. Team F
7. Team A
-----------------------------------
1. Hopkins
2. Drew
3. Lyco
4. Gettysburg
5. Misericordia
6. Washington College
7. Eastern



I don't know how others would stack them up, but I find it interesting that the team from this group of 7 that has the best SOS, most wins vs ranked opponents, most games vs ranked opponents, and the same amount of wins or 1 less isn't in the rankings but others with a, in my opinion, not as good resume are ranked high in the region. Just curious on thoughts when taking a step back and comparing all these teams.

SUNY New Paltz is 8-4-7 and in the last slot in the East. That's 11 blemishes and one less slot in the East region to make it and they are there with a .569 SOS, 2-1-1 RvR and a WP: .605% (Just an interesting comparison for the blemish argument)

[Flying Weasel]

Should have included Team H: 12-3-0, WP: .800%, SOS: .490, RvR 1-1-0, 3 blemishes

[Shooter McGavin]

Should have included Team H: 12-3-0, WP: .800%, SOS: .490, RvR 1-1-0, 3 blemishes

Yes throw that resume in the mix too!

[Go2Goal]

I think the lowest SOS to make the tournament last year was .526 your team is in trouble if they don't break .525 threashold.

[Flying Weasel]

That's true Go2Goal, but the comparison being discussed wasn't about selection for an at-large berth, it was merely the order of teams in the lower half of the Mid-Atlantic regional rankings, debating who should have gotten the last few spots and in what order. 

Obviously LVC's very low SOS is preventing them from getting ranked.  But as discussed several days ago, I think when you compare LVC to Misericordia, Gettysburg, Hopkins, and Drew considering ALL the primary criteria, not just SOS and RvR, they should be right in the mix and a good case could be made for having them ranked in place of one of those teams.  For example, LVC has the advantage over Misericordia in winning pct. (.800 vs. .667), RvR (1-1-0 vs. 0-1-1), common opponents (3-1-0 8GF 2GA vs. 2-1-1 5GF 4GA), and head-to-head they won 4-0 (yes, 4-0 win head-to-head), but have a lower SOS (.490 vs. .527). There can be little explanation for Misericordia being ranked and LVC not, besides there being a SOS threshhold even if vague (+/-.500) and unwritten/unspoken.

And the thing about LVC's low SOS is that the MAC Commonwealth was down this year overall with Widener and Lyco having significantly worse years, Alvernia a bit worse, and only Messiah doiong better. So LVC's SOS took a hit of probably about .020 but maybe as much as .025 due to conference opponents getting worse. If they had a .510 or .515 SOS to compare with that group above, then they might get a fair shake on the other criteria. Now, LVC's non-conference schedule certainly leaves much to be desired, and that's their own fault. You can't be playing Berkeley (NJ), Wilkes, and Cairn combined with no Top 40-ish type opponents (Misericorida was the best they played out of conference).

It'd be interesting to see a criterion by criterion comparison with Hopkins, given their low .511 SOS, and Gettysburg, given their lack of wins vs. ranked).  Anyway, it's win the AQ or stay home for LVC, and I'm not saying that's completely unjust, but I do think they probably deserved to have been ranked.  And the fact that they aren't is suggestive of there being some SOS threshhold that all the other primary criteria can't compensate for.

[paclassic89]

^ Well said.  It 's  just baffling that there isn't a more uniform and transparent way of ranking the teams.  D1 Men's and Women's soccer uses an RPI system throughout the year so I'm not sure why that couldn't be implemented in D3.  I found this really informative breakdown of the D1 Women's RPI system https://sites.google.com/site/rpifordivisioniwomenssoccer/  I couldn't find anything regarding the men's formula which I think is slightly different but it gives a good insight into the process. Regardless, LVC still needed to schedule a tougher out of conference schedule so they were at fault there. 

LVC just beat Alvernia 2-0 so they're awaiting the winner of Arcadia v Messiah

[Falconer]

Messiah takes care of business, beating Arcadia 4-0 in a lopsided and asymmetric game.  Predictably, Arcadia put everyone in front of the ball in the first half, and quite literally possessed the ball on the other end less than half a minute all together. No shots for them in the first 45 minutes, whereas the Falcons had maybe two dozen, maybe half of them on goal and many of those very well struck, including a couple of headers that just somehow ended up in the keeper's capable hands--he kept his team in the game and also got lucky, insofar as several of the rockets (there were several) were right at him.  No score at the half.

Messiah scored in the first six minutes of the second half and the floodgates opened as Arcadia was forced to attack.  No change in the result, but it made for better watching. 

The Falcons are at the top of their game heading into the conference final vs LVC on Saturday.  Barring a major surprise, they will be rolling into the dance next week as a lock to host a sectional.