Mid-Atlantic Region 2016

[D3soccerwatcher]

Lycoming loses again today.  This time 2-1 to F&M.

What would Messiah's record be if they had opened against those 2 teams? We will never know because Messiah has 3-4 legit games on its entire schedule. York, ETOWN, Lycoming and Gettysburg. I was giving McCarty credit in his tenure up to this point because compared to Brandt he would come up with a challenging schedule. This year's non-conference schedule is extremely WEAK. Now Lycoming has REALLY challenged itself but now is already 0-2-0 against ranked so they need to beat a couple of these ranked teams they play in the future. Let's remember the committee loves to see a ton of games against ranked opponents even if you are say 3-5-1 against them. 2-6-0 prob will not get it done but atleast they TRIED

Messiah's record against those two teams would not be any worse than Lycoming's (but could be potentially better).

I agree that the four teams you list on Messiah's schedule are "legit" opponents.  But I really don't understand why you are intentionally throwing the three ODAC teams on Messiah's non-conference schedule under the bus – calling them "extremely WEAK".  W&L is the ODAC preseason favorite (and was a national tournament team last year and also received votes in the 2016 preseason national ranking).   Roanoke is picked 2nd in the ODAC preseason poll and Lynchburg 4th.  I don't agree with your assertion that these three teams are all not "legit" and "extremely WEAK".  I'm sure the ODAC faithful would take exception as well.  And by the way, all three of these ODAC teams have made the national tournament over the past four years.

And is Oglethorpe also "extremely WEAK"? Coming off a 10-3-3 record last year and also the best regular season conference record in the SAA.

[Falconer]

There's nothing obviously wrong with Messiah's non-conference schedule this year--it's not "extremely WEAK" as Mr. Right describes it.  It's a good idea to open the season with a 5-hour trip to VA to play two of the better teams in the ODAC in their backyard.  That's an appropriate way to get a very young team up to speed.  Granted, Lynchburg didn't try to play soccer on Saturday, but the last time the Falcons played them, Lynchburg not only played soccer, but they actually beat the Falcons in the national title game, only to be denied the title by a terrible non-call that resulted in Messiah tying the game with seconds left in regulation.  So, it's hard to criticize McCarty for scheduling them, especially less than 24 hours after playing a good Roanoke team on their field.

I certainly agree with Mr. Right, however, that Lycoming has gone beyond the call of duty by scheduling Rowan and F&M back to back to open the season.  He's right that it could prove a fatal mistake, especially if they lose one more non-conference game.  Lycoming was the legitimate conference champion last fall--certainly they were better than Messiah, and no one else in the conference is close--and they lost no one to graduation while bringing in a huge number of new people.  On paper you have to like their chances.  But, Messiah graduated a class that wasn't as talented (definitely) as the returning sophomores and (probably also) the incoming freshmen, so it could be interesting. IMO, if Messiah and Lycoming split (regular season and conference tournament), and neither team has any major blemishes (I don't regard losing to Rowan and F&M as major blemishes), they probably both get bids.  If either one wins both games, the other one probably doesn't get a bid, regardless of their records--even more so for Lycoming, since they would then have at least four losses.  So, I think it will come down to their head-to-head games, which is the best way to do it anyway.

[Shooter McGavin]

There's nothing obviously wrong with Messiah's non-conference schedule this year--it's not "extremely WEAK" as Mr. Right describes it.  It's a good idea to open the season with a 5-hour trip to VA to play two of the better teams in the ODAC in their backyard.  That's an appropriate way to get a very young team up to speed.  Granted, Lynchburg didn't try to play soccer on Saturday, but the last time the Falcons played them, Lynchburg not only played soccer, but they actually beat the Falcons in the national title game, only to be denied the title by a terrible non-call that resulted in Messiah tying the game with seconds left in regulation.  So, it's hard to criticize McCarty for scheduling them, especially less than 24 hours after playing a good Roanoke team on their field.

I certainly agree with Mr. Right, however, that Lycoming has gone beyond the call of duty by scheduling Rowan and F&M back to back to open the season.  He's right that it could prove a fatal mistake, especially if they lose one more non-conference game.  Lycoming was the legitimate conference champion last fall--certainly they were better than Messiah, and no one else in the conference is close--and they lost no one to graduation while bringing in a huge number of new people.  On paper you have to like their chances.  But, Messiah graduated a class that wasn't as talented (definitely) as the returning sophomores and (probably also) the incoming freshmen, so it could be interesting. IMO, if Messiah and Lycoming split (regular season and conference tournament), and neither team has any major blemishes (I don't regard losing to Rowan and F&M as major blemishes), they probably both get bids.  If either one wins both games, the other one probably doesn't get a bid, regardless of their records--even more so for Lycoming, since they would then have at least four losses.  So, I think it will come down to their head-to-head games, which is the best way to do it anyway.

I lean on the side of Mr. Right for his thoughts on Messiah's weak non-conference schedule. It is weak compared to years past and shows that they are scared to play teams like Rowan, Dickinson, Montclair, Carnegie Mellon, and others as they have always done so in the past. The ODAC is down this year. Both Roanoke and Lynchburg would not finish top half of most major conferences so the preseason #2 and #4 mean nothing. Messiah will be better than last year and the second part from Falconer is great insight. I still think Lycoming gets in with 5 blemishes whether that be 5 losses or 3 losses and 2 ties etc. Long season before we figure this out but we will have a better idea after this weekend of where everybody stands. 

[lastguyoffthebench]

F&M vs York today...   

A DRAW wouldn't surprise me.   

[rudy]

F&M vs York today...   

A DRAW wouldn't surprise me.

F&M looked really good  against Lycoming..at least from what I could see on streaming video for part of the game. I would be surprised if York gets a win..maybe with some luck a draw

[D3soccerwatcher]

York winning 1-0 over F&M at halftime.

[D3soccerwatcher]

F&M controls most of the game but cannot come away with the win.
Final Score
F&M 1
York 1

[Go2Goal]

Messiah had the option to play a tougher schedule but after last year's smack down by Rowan and then losing twice to Lycoming i think they need to try and get they'er confidence back against a weaker schedule. They could have been in with W&L and SUNY Oneanta at the Gilmore Alumni classic at Rowan. They'er domination of D3 has come and gone! 

[lastguyoffthebench]

We saw the Messiah schedule drop off in 2015 when they lost Payne, Thompson, Brandt, and Ramirez.     

Messiah looked strong vs Noke.   In a seemingly down year, I think Messiah will return to dominance.    There are only 2 teams that could reach the Elite 8 in my opinion...  Messiah and Haverford.   I will have to watch Lycoming more this season, but going on a softer schedule last year and a close game vs Amherst is not indicative of a sure thing to a deeper run in 2016.

They still have a tough 7 game stretch and will seemingly have to win the MACC.   Starting out 3-4-2 would put a ton of pressure on Lyco... with Miseri and THEN at Oneonta St late in the season when the Red Dragons should be in strong form.   

at Susqu today...   Crusaders will probably just absorb pressure and try to escape with a DRAW. 
at Eastern
at Haverford
gimme vs Juniata
vs Scranton
vs Frostburg St  (Frostburg could cause some problems and should not be overlooked); similar shot count vs Alvernia last year; both were 9 - 7
vs CWRU

WIN OR BUST for the WARRIORS after dropping the first two games... 

[jknezek]

Messiah had the option to play a tougher schedule but after last year's smack down by Rowan and then losing twice to Lycoming i think they need to try and get they'er confidence back against a weaker schedule. They could have been in with W&L and SUNY Oneanta at the Gilmore Alumni classic at Rowan. They'er domination of D3 has come and gone!

Messiah already has W&L on the schedule in the back half of a home and home. That alone would have been a disincentive to join that tournament unless you simply had 2 brackets with no crossover. I think most agree that Messiah's schedule has tailed off a bit, but playing in the Gilmore just wouldn't have made sense with W&L already committed. For either school.

[Shooter McGavin]

We saw the Messiah schedule drop off in 2015 when they lost Payne, Thompson, Brandt, and Ramirez.     

Messiah looked strong vs Noke.   In a seemingly down year, I think Messiah will return to dominance.    There are only 2 teams that could reach the Elite 8 in my opinion...  Messiah and Haverford.   I will have to watch Lycoming more this season, but going on a softer schedule last year and a close game vs Amherst is not indicative of a sure thing to a deeper run in 2016.

They still have a tough 7 game stretch and will seemingly have to win the MACC.   Starting out 3-4-2 would put a ton of pressure on Lyco... with Miseri and THEN at Oneonta St late in the season when the Red Dragons should be in strong form.   

at Susqu today...   Crusaders will probably just absorb pressure and try to escape with a DRAW. 
at Eastern
at Haverford
gimme vs Juniata
vs Scranton
vs Frostburg St  (Frostburg could cause some problems and should not be overlooked); similar shot count vs Alvernia last year; both were 9 - 7
vs CWRU

WIN OR BUST for the WARRIORS after dropping the first two games...

Sorry last guy but Messiah will not return to dominance this year and by no means will they have a shot to make the Elite 8. Messiah will be lucky to get a bid this year if they don't win the MACC.

[lastguyoffthebench]

Lycoming vs Rowan
Yellow Card to the team in 56th min after Rowan goal?

Lycoming vs F&M
Red Card to a bench player in the 60th min after the F&M goal?
Yellow Card to the team in the 75th min?

[D3soccerwatcher]

As I recall Lycoming and Rowan were national leaders in fouls and cards last year.

[rudy]

We saw the Messiah schedule drop off in 2015 when they lost Payne, Thompson, Brandt, and Ramirez.     

Messiah looked strong vs Noke.   In a seemingly down year, I think Messiah will return to dominance.    There are only 2 teams that could reach the Elite 8 in my opinion...  Messiah and Haverford.   I will have to watch Lycoming more this season, but going on a softer schedule last year and a close game vs Amherst is not indicative of a sure thing to a deeper run in 2016.

They still have a tough 7 game stretch and will seemingly have to win the MACC.   Starting out 3-4-2 would put a ton of pressure on Lyco... with Miseri and THEN at Oneonta St late in the season when the Red Dragons should be in strong form.   

at Susqu today...   Crusaders will probably just absorb pressure and try to escape with a DRAW. 
at Eastern
at Haverford
gimme vs Juniata
vs Scranton
vs Frostburg St  (Frostburg could cause some problems and should not be overlooked); similar shot count vs Alvernia last year; both were 9 - 7
vs CWRU

WIN OR BUST for the WARRIORS after dropping the first two games...

Sorry last guy but Messiah will not return to dominance this year and by no means will they have a shot to make the Elite 8. Messiah will be lucky to get a bid this year if they don't win the MACC.

I think it is extremely difficult to get to final 4 much less win 10 national championships in 15 years as messiah accomplished. To continue that type of dominance is nearly impossible. You need to catch some breaks, stay healthy, have talent, good coaching, team chemistry, etc. Many games are determined by 1 goal so any team can lose on a given day even if they are "the better team".  There are probably 30 teams that have the potential to make it to the final 4 and I would include Messiah in that group. But to expect championships every other year forever in a sport like soccer is really unrealistic for any school. Odds are that Amherst will not repeat.

[D3soccerwatcher]

We saw the Messiah schedule drop off in 2015 when they lost Payne, Thompson, Brandt, and Ramirez.     

Messiah looked strong vs Noke.   In a seemingly down year, I think Messiah will return to dominance.    There are only 2 teams that could reach the Elite 8 in my opinion...  Messiah and Haverford.   I will have to watch Lycoming more this season, but going on a softer schedule last year and a close game vs Amherst is not indicative of a sure thing to a deeper run in 2016.

They still have a tough 7 game stretch and will seemingly have to win the MACC.   Starting out 3-4-2 would put a ton of pressure on Lyco... with Miseri and THEN at Oneonta St late in the season when the Red Dragons should be in strong form.   

at Susqu today...   Crusaders will probably just absorb pressure and try to escape with a DRAW. 
at Eastern
at Haverford
gimme vs Juniata
vs Scranton
vs Frostburg St  (Frostburg could cause some problems and should not be overlooked); similar shot count vs Alvernia last year; both were 9 - 7
vs CWRU

WIN OR BUST for the WARRIORS after dropping the first two games...

Sorry last guy but Messiah will not return to dominance this year and by no means will they have a shot to make the Elite 8. Messiah will be lucky to get a bid this year if they don't win the MACC.

With 10 National Championships in the last 16 years, and 5 National Championships in the last 8 years I don't think you can ever count Messiah out. This team exudes excellence which breeds winning. Sure last year may have been a bit of a "down" season for them but they seem to always rebound. I fully expect that they will rebound again.