Mid-Atlantic Region 2016

[NEPAFAN]

Shooter's Predictions

Rowan@Hood---------------Rowan 6  Hood 1
F&M@Etown-----------------F&M 1  Etown 1
Fords@Stevens-------------Fords 3  Stevens 2  2OT
Messiah@Getty--------------Messiah 1  Getty 2 OT
St. Mary's@Catholic---------St. Mary's 0 Catholic 0
JHU@York-------------------JHU 1 York 0  OT
Susquehanna@Leb Val------Susquehanna 2   Leb Val 1
Arcadia@Ramapo------------Arcadia 2  Ramapo 1
Goucher@Dickinson---------Goucher 1 Dickinson 1
Lycoming@Juniata----------Lycoming 4  Juniata 0
Drew@Muhlenberg----------Drew 0 Muhles 1  2OT
Eastern@Swarthmore-------Eastern 0  Swat 2
Camden@Cabrini------------RUC 3  Cabrini 1
Stockton@Alvernia----------Stockton 1  Alvernia 1

Just for Fun: Battle of Ohio
Ohio Northern@Ohio Wesleyan-----ONU 3  OWU 4  2OT

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Messiah 2 Gettysburg 2

Messiah was up 1-0 with under 10 minutes to go then Gettysburg scored on a free kick (should not have  been called IMHO) and then scored again a couple minutes later.  Messiah did well to pull back even with 5 minutes to go but neither team could score in 2 OT.  Gettysburg has some fast forwards and play the ball forward constantly..not much action through the midfield.  It works for them.  Messiah started slow but played better for second part of first half.  They started second half getting a lot of shots (something they did not do in 1st half..they possessed in first half but did not take shots) but could not convert.   

Overall even game with different styles.   Messiah now has 2 injured starters (midfielder and outside defender who got hurt in 2nd half of this game) so not sure when they will be back.
Gettysburg will be a tough game for most teams due to their speed and quick transition game.

Messiah is better than last season. I think everyone can at least agree on that? But they are no where near national title contenders as they have been over the last 15 seasons. Right now they are just another very, very good D3 team and although the Messiah faithful don't want to admit it...there are a lot of other very, very good D3 teams at the moment.

I would say there are 4 or 5 clear cut teams that are legitimate national title contenders and then a huge group after that of 20-30 teams who could make a run at it but aren't the clear favorites. But to say Messiah is one of those 4 or 5 at the moment is far from true.

[rudy]

Messiah 2 Gettysburg 2

Messiah was up 1-0 with under 10 minutes to go then Gettysburg scored on a free kick (should not have  been called IMHO) and then scored again a couple minutes later.  Messiah did well to pull back even with 5 minutes to go but neither team could score in 2 OT.  Gettysburg has some fast forwards and play the ball forward constantly..not much action through the midfield.  It works for them.  Messiah started slow but played better for second part of first half.  They started second half getting a lot of shots (something they did not do in 1st half..they possessed in first half but did not take shots) but could not convert.   

Overall even game with different styles.   Messiah now has 2 injured starters (midfielder and outside defender who got hurt in 2nd half of this game) so not sure when they will be back.
Gettysburg will be a tough game for most teams due to their speed and quick transition game.

Messiah is better than last season. I think everyone can at least agree on that? But they are no where near national title contenders as they have been over the last 15 seasons. Right now they are just another very, very good D3 team and although the Messiah faithful don't want to admit it...there are a lot of other very, very good D3 teams at the moment.

I would say there are 4 or 5 clear cut teams that are legitimate national title contenders and then a huge group after that of 20-30 teams who could make a run at it but aren't the clear favorites. But to say Messiah is one of those 4 or 5 at the moment is far from true.

Agree. But they are in in 20-30 teams group that have a shot.  Who are the top 4-5 clear cut?  I don't think Amherst, Kenyon, etc, who are ranked #1-5 right now are so superior to the 20-30 others that have a shot.  It's not like they are as good as the Messiah teams of the past that won 2-3 consecutive national titles on multiple occasions.  On any given day there are a lot of teams that can beat each other or at least get a tie and go to PK's.  A lot of parity these days.

[lastguyoffthebench]

I don't think there are any clear cut favorites this year...  all about the match-ups time come November.

[Flying Weasel]

Messiah is better than last season. I think everyone can at least agree on that? But they are no where near national title contenders as they have been over the last 15 seasons. Right now they are just another very, very good D3 team and although the Messiah faithful don't want to admit it...there are a lot of other very, very good D3 teams at the moment.

I would say there are 4 or 5 clear cut teams that are legitimate national title contenders and then a huge group after that of 20-30 teams who could make a run at it but aren't the clear favorites. But to say Messiah is one of those 4 or 5 at the moment is far from true.

I don't know who and how many you are talking to conclude that the Messiah faithful don't want to admit they aren't legitimate national title contenders.  I think many Falcon fans recognize the situation and know there's a lot of work to be done and progress to be made yet to get back to national title-contender status.

[PaulNewman]

Here's my own 2 cents on Messiah.  It seems that some posters are suggesting that Messiah just isn't that good and may not be a NCAA tourney-type team, or may be a tourney team but one headed for a fairly quick exit.  The second view seems to be based on what Messiah WAS, and in some ways what the rest of the field WAS in many years by extension.  IMHO it's fair to say that no team, Messiah or otherwise, is likely to have that kind of dynasty again.  I can see a school winning two in a row but more than that seems very unlikely going forward.  That said, I think it's entirely reasonable to believe that Messiah could, even this year, end up among 12-15 teams with decent to fairly equal chances to go deep.  It's not like we're going to see Messiah mid-table in the Commonwealth Conf any time soon.  I can very easily picture Messiah in the Elite 8 this year, and once there, any of those teams have a decent shot.  I of course won't be shocked if the lose in the 2nd round either.  Even in the dynasty phase one of their best teams ever lost early (in 2011 I think). 

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Here's my own 2 cents on Messiah.  It seems that some posters are suggesting that Messiah just isn't that good and may not be a NCAA tourney-type team, or may be a tourney team but one headed for a fairly quick exit.  The second view seems to be based on what Messiah WAS, and in some ways what the rest of the field WAS in many years by extension.  IMHO it's fair to say that no team, Messiah or otherwise, is likely to have that kind of dynasty again.  I can see a school winning two in a row but more than that seems very unlikely going forward.  That said, I think it's entirely reasonable to believe that Messiah could, even this year, end up among 12-15 teams with decent to fairly equal chances to go deep.  It's not like we're going to see Messiah mid-table in the Commonwealth Conf any time soon.  I can very easily picture Messiah in the Elite 8 this year, and once there, any of those teams have a decent shot.  I of course won't be shocked if the lose in the 2nd round either.  Even in the dynasty phase one of their best teams ever lost early (in 2011 I think).

Beautifully said NCAC NE...this is what I was trying to get at. 

[Falconer]

F&M 2 Etown 0

Good win for F&M to keep them top of the region

I had trouble with the video.  E'town looks like they have a great venue and nice field.  A lot of good venues in PA.

Etown is indeed a great place to watch soccer.  I don't know how large the crowd is for the generic game on their schedule, but when they host Messiah it's very large, even overflowing.  Since (unlike at Messiah) the soccer field is not surrounded by a 400-meter track, the bleachers are much closer to the action, and seating is also available on a hillside behind one of the goals.  You might say that Messiah's venue : Etown's venue :: Yankee Stadium : Fenway Park.  (Though I offer that analogy, I should mention that for me it ultimately breaks down b/c I always root for the Red Sox.)  The field is natural grass, but I don't think it's quite as big as Messiah's (I hope someone will correct me if I am wrong) and it probably doesn't drain quite as well either. 

Etown fans are knowledgeable, befitting their great tradition.  The only complaint I have is that some of the students can get a bit carried away in vocalizing their support for the Jays.  It's not uncommon to hear things like, "F&$% Messiah," and other unpleasantries coming from certain sections during a game.  Yes, the rivalry is a heated one, but I don't recall hearing similar things at any other venue, including York or Gettysburg, which are also reliably strong opponents that Messiah plays annually.  It's unnecessary and not fitting to the quality of the venue or the skill of their team.

[NJrexSoccer03]

F&M 2 Etown 0

Good win for F&M to keep them top of the region

I had trouble with the video.  E'town looks like they have a great venue and nice field.  A lot of good venues in PA.

Etown is indeed a great place to watch soccer.  I don't know how large the crowd is for the generic game on their schedule, but when they host Messiah it's very large, even overflowing.  Since (unlike at Messiah) the soccer field is not surrounded by a 400-meter track, the bleachers are much closer to the action, and seating is also available on a hillside behind one of the goals.  You might say that Messiah's venue : Etown's venue :: Yankee Stadium : Fenway Park.  (Though I offer that analogy, I should mention that for me it ultimately breaks down b/c I always root for the Red Sox.)  The field is natural grass, but I don't think it's quite as big as Messiah's (I hope someone will correct me if I am wrong) and it probably doesn't drain quite as well either. 

Etown fans are knowledgeable, befitting their great tradition.  The only complaint I have is that some of the students can get a bit carried away in vocalizing their support for the Jays.  It's not uncommon to hear things like, "F&$% Messiah," and other unpleasantries coming from certain sections during a game.  Yes, the rivalry is a heated one, but I don't recall hearing similar things at any other venue, including York or Gettysburg, which are also reliably strong opponents that Messiah plays annually.  It's unnecessary and not fitting to the quality of the venue or the skill of their team.

Falconer. I can only comment from many many years ago. The field did not drain as well as Messiah's back then and the grass at Etown always seems to long. The field has been shortened from when I played. The goal closest to the entrance has come in a few yards. I didn't get a chance to stream the Etown game. Any thoughts from people who watched?

[D3soccerwatcher]

Here's my own 2 cents on Messiah.  It seems that some posters are suggesting that Messiah just isn't that good and may not be a NCAA tourney-type team, or may be a tourney team but one headed for a fairly quick exit.  The second view seems to be based on what Messiah WAS, and in some ways what the rest of the field WAS in many years by extension.  IMHO it's fair to say that no team, Messiah or otherwise, is likely to have that kind of dynasty again.  I can see a school winning two in a row but more than that seems very unlikely going forward.  That said, I think it's entirely reasonable to believe that Messiah could, even this year, end up among 12-15 teams with decent to fairly equal chances to go deep.  It's not like we're going to see Messiah mid-table in the Commonwealth Conf any time soon.  I can very easily picture Messiah in the Elite 8 this year, and once there, any of those teams have a decent shot.  I of course won't be shocked if the lose in the 2nd round either.  Even in the dynasty phase one of their best teams ever lost early (in 2011 I think).

I agree with you fully...dynasties are difficult to achieve and maintain.  Just about 21 months ago, many on this board were talking "dynasty" for Tufts after they won the National championship.  Now Tufts is sitting three games into the season without a win.  That's why the list of National Champions is so elite, and the list of those few schools who have won multiple National Championships is even more elite.

[rudy]

Here's my own 2 cents on Messiah.  It seems that some posters are suggesting that Messiah just isn't that good and may not be a NCAA tourney-type team, or may be a tourney team but one headed for a fairly quick exit.  The second view seems to be based on what Messiah WAS, and in some ways what the rest of the field WAS in many years by extension.  IMHO it's fair to say that no team, Messiah or otherwise, is likely to have that kind of dynasty again.  I can see a school winning two in a row but more than that seems very unlikely going forward.  That said, I think it's entirely reasonable to believe that Messiah could, even this year, end up among 12-15 teams with decent to fairly equal chances to go deep.  It's not like we're going to see Messiah mid-table in the Commonwealth Conf any time soon.  I can very easily picture Messiah in the Elite 8 this year, and once there, any of those teams have a decent shot.  I of course won't be shocked if the lose in the 2nd round either.  Even in the dynasty phase one of their best teams ever lost early (in 2011 I think).

i agree with you fully...dynasties are difficult to achieve and maintain.  Just about 21 months ago, many on this board were talking "dynasty" for Tufts after they won the National championship,  Now Tufts is sitting three games into the season without a win.  That's why the list of National Champions is so elite, and the list of those few schools who have won multiple National Championships is even more elite.

And I'd bet my house that Amherst does not repeat this year. They have a chance but everything has to go right. Thats what makes what Messiah accomplished amazing. Look they lost in elite 8 to tufts that year but where the better team. I would say Messiah will return to final 4 at least once within next few years.  But win multiple championships is not likely due to other teams having lots of talent as well.

[PaulNewman]

rudy, I wouldn't bet your house, but I know what you mean.  I actually think Amherst has a better chance this year than some prior years because they finally broke through.  That said, a repeat is unlikely because of all the things that have to go right.  Seems most of us agree that we are in a year that is very wide open.

[lastguyoffthebench]

Does your house include a one semester meal plan and all utilities covered?  haha

I've said on this board before that Messiah also benefits from a weak conference, most starters only had to play 60-70 min throughout the season.   I've always felt this gave them an even stronger case to make deeper runs in the tournament... a main reason why you can NEVER count them out.   

I'd bet my house that Messiah win the MACC... (sorry MAF!)

The 2014 Messiah team that lost to Tufts was probably the best SR class they've ever had.   The 2013 team probably had the best front 6 in the history of D3 (or at least the last 25 years), with strong talent on the back line as well.   The Tufts team from 2014 was incredibly disciplined and excellent on the counter attack. 


There are not 4 clear cut favorites, I can't even say with confidence what region(s) the FINAL FOUR teams will come from!    At the moment I'm going with New England, Mid Atlantic, South Atlantic, Great Lakes...

[rudy]

Does your house include a one semester meal plan and all utilities covered?  haha

I've said on this board before that Messiah also benefits from a weak conference, most starters only had to play 60-70 min throughout the season.   I've always felt this gave them an even stronger case to make deeper runs in the tournament... a main reason why you can NEVER count them out.   

I'd bet my house that Messiah win the MACC... (sorry MAF!)

The 2014 Messiah team that lost to Tufts was probably the best SR class they've ever had.   The 2013 team probably had the best front 6 in the history of D3 (or at least the last 25 years), with strong talent on the back line as well.   The Tufts team from 2014 was incredibly disciplined and excellent on the counter attack. 


There are not 4 clear cut favorites, I can't even say with confidence what region(s) the FINAL FOUR teams will come from!    At the moment I'm going with New England, Mid Atlantic, South Atlantic, Great Lakes...

You could also argue that Nescac teams benefit from a strong conference. They typically get 3 teams in the tournament even though the bottom of nescac us nothing special.  So very good teams from other conferences often get left out if they don't win conf tournament while nescac team with 4-5 losses get a bid. I think 2 from nescac is fair but 3 seems excessive.

[PaulNewman]

Does your house include a one semester meal plan and all utilities covered?  haha

I've said on this board before that Messiah also benefits from a weak conference, most starters only had to play 60-70 min throughout the season.   I've always felt this gave them an even stronger case to make deeper runs in the tournament... a main reason why you can NEVER count them out.   

I'd bet my house that Messiah win the MACC... (sorry MAF!)

The 2014 Messiah team that lost to Tufts was probably the best SR class they've ever had.   The 2013 team probably had the best front 6 in the history of D3 (or at least the last 25 years), with strong talent on the back line as well.   The Tufts team from 2014 was incredibly disciplined and excellent on the counter attack. 


There are not 4 clear cut favorites, I can't even say with confidence what region(s) the FINAL FOUR teams will come from!    At the moment I'm going with New England, Mid Atlantic, South Atlantic, Great Lakes...

You could also argue that Nescac teams benefit from a strong conference. They typically get 3 teams in the tournament even though the bottom of nescac us nothing special.  So very good teams from other conferences often get left out if they don't win conf tournament while nescac team with 4-5 losses get a bid. I think 2 from nescac is fair but 3 seems excessive.

NESCAC almost always deserves 3 bids and sometimes 4.  Same with the UAA.  A 2nd place team in a weak conference or regular season winner who loses in their tournament generally needs a sterling record and a good to very good strength of schedule outside the conference with good results.  That's how Lycoming is trying to cover themselves this year, and we'll see if that works if they don't win the conference tournament.  If this is your first year there are going to be a lot of things that don't make sense that you'll figure out over the next couple of years.  After 5-6 years I'm still learning things that I didn't fully understand (like how the NSCAA rankings work for example and last year how important SoS is in terms of the other regional rankings (yes, the NCAA regional rankings count and the NSCAA regional rankings don't) and their importance in terms of who gets bids and who doesn't).