Mid-Atlantic Region 2016

[Falconer]

Lyco vs Miseri... The team that scores first, wins.  I'm backing the Warriors in this one.

You could be right, and Lycoming has to be the favorite, but the Cougars came back from a deficit against Messiah and they are dangerous on set plays.  If they play well enough to get several of those, they might even win this one.  Both teams play on turf so that's not a factor.

[Falconer]

I don't like to predict scores, especially not for big rivalry games like Etown (19) at Messiah (20) where literally anything can happen.  They go in as evenly matched on paper as it has ever been.  Both teams are very young, with most of the best players either Fr or Soph.  Last year, when both teams had a few senior starters, Etown dominated the first half, got a great goal from Gilbert Waso (who was dangerous all game long), and Messiah dominated the second half without getting a goal. 1-0.  IMO Etown earned a spot in the tournament, but they were denied.  This game looms large in tournament hopes for both sides, and I expect a barn burner.

What to watch for?  How will Messiah defend MF Gilbert Waso?  He's a stud even at 5-5.  Probably the best player I saw in person last fall, when he was just a freshman, and he was indeed voted an AA.  Messiah had no answer for him.  If that is true again tonight, Etown probably wins.  However, Etown lost an AA defender (I think a Frenchman) to graduation while Messiah got quite a bit stronger in the back.  They also like to put a big man in as target, which can make things interesting on set plays or when Waso has the ball outside the box.  We'll have to see what happens.

On the other side of the ball, the most dangerous Falcons are Colby Thomas, who can break you down on the right side and either pass or shoot for a score; and Jacob Bender, who is now playing MF instead of in back, and who is extremely dangerous on free kicks--I'm starting to hear, "bend 'em like Bender."  He also takes the corner kicks, but the Falcons aren't as tall as they have been recently and they often take short corners instead, usually involving Colby.  Despite what I just said about Waso, it could be that Colby is as good as Waso now that he's healthy.  I haven't seen enough of him live yet to be confident of that--the streaming doesn't usually give good closeup views.

[Flying Weasel]

My recollection of last year's Messiah-E-town tilt, is that, outside of some isolated instances, Waso was kept pretty well in-check in the second half.  It wasn't so much that they played him better when he had the ball, but rather that Messiah was better in maintaining possession (less possession for E-town) in the second half and, when E-town did have the ball, not allowing them to find Waso and get him involved in the play.  Yes, he was still dangerous when he did get the ball in the second half, but that didn't happen nearly as much as in the first half.  So I wouldn't exactly describe him as being dangerous all game, but maybe others saw it more like you did.  The first half for me showed what Waso was capable of, but the second half showed that you can game plan and play to minimize his impact and as the season wore on, he seemed to have fewer games in which he made the difference which is somewhat reasonable as he was no longer this unknown that surprised teams.  Just my 2 cents.

[Mr.Right]

Just looking at the ETOWN's schedule I do not see more than 1 quality win on it. Are they for real this year? I have not seen them play and a 4-1 win over TCNJ is impressive but the tough games they have played they have either lost or tied. I also understand in a rivalry game you can throw the records out the window but I do not see them winning this game and frankly if they lose this game their Pool C chances might fly out the window with it.

[Falconer]

My recollection of last year's Messiah-E-town tilt, is that, outside of some isolated instances, Waso was kept pretty well in-check in the second half.  It wasn't so much that they played him better when he had the ball, but rather that Messiah was better in maintaining possession (less possession for E-town) in the second half and, when E-town did have the ball, not allowing them to find Waso and get him involved in the play.  Yes, he was still dangerous when he did get the ball in the second half, but that didn't happen nearly as much as in the first half.  So I wouldn't exactly describe him as being dangerous all game, but maybe others saw it more like you did.  The first half for me showed what Waso was capable of, but the second half showed that you can game plan and play to minimize his impact and as the season wore on, he seemed to have fewer games in which he made the difference which is somewhat reasonable as he was no longer this unknown that surprised teams.  Just my 2 cents.

Weasel is right.  The Falcons played possession much more effectively in the second half last year, so Waso didn't get many touches.  I should have said, "I was worried about Waso all game, b/c when he has the ball he's very dangerous."  Kudos to FW for a more precise opinion.

Wason has 5 goals already this year, with several of the same opponents, so he's still dangerous.  Colby Thomas also has 5 goals this year, and I know he's dangerous.  The big factor could be heavy rain, which is supposed to begin in about half an hour and in quantities that are giving rise to flood warnings.  If that likely scenario transpires it might seriously impact the Falcons, much more than the Blue Jays.  The Falcons are in general faster & quicker to the ball, factors that a quagmire will eliminate; and their one-touch passing game will be obliterated.  That would be a shame, but what can you do?

[Falconer]

Just looking at the ETOWN's schedule I do not see more than 1 quality win on it. Are they for real this year? I have not seen them play and a 4-1 win over TCNJ is impressive but the tough games they have played they have either lost or tied. I also understand in a rivalry game you can throw the records out the window but I do not see them winning this game and frankly if they lose this game their Pool C chances might fly out the window with it.

I hear you, Mr. Right: I agree that Etown has more to prove tonight than Messiah, but the magnitude of this rivalry cannot be disregarded.  It's one of the greatest rivalries in all of D3 soccer, and every player knows it. I wish I could count Etown out, but I can't.

For example, a great Messiah team in 2006, led by four-time AA Kai Kasiguran, lost at home to Etown, 1-0.  They outshot Etown 16-1, including 8 SOG (one of them saved off the line), but just couldn't buy a goal.  I don't know whether the one goal was a PK--it might have been.  Dustin Shambach was the best keeper Messiah ever had, and it's hard to think he would otherwise give up a goal on the only shot.  If you saw the sweet sixteen game in Williamstown that year, Mr Right, then you will surely remember the truly unbelievable save that Shambach came up with to save their bacon in a scoreless tie.  So, I'm guessing that unassisted Etown goal was a PK. I was involved with a business event that evening so I missed seeing it, or I'd probably remember something like that. It happens.

I don't expect similar stats tonight--Etown will surely get more than one shot.  Messiah's back line doesn't include another JD Binger or even an Andy Rosamilia.  The only prediction I will make: both teams will score.

Here's the box for that 2006 game: http://www.messiah.edu/gomessiah/sports/mens_soccer/statistics/2006/ccsemi.htm

[Flying Weasel]

The cumulative season stats shows opponents being 0-for-1 on PKs for the season.  So don't think it was a PK.  I was not there, but should have been listening to the radio webcast, but I personally can't recall anything about the goal.

[blooter442]

I am not totally sure what to think of Rochester yet. They have certainly bounced back from a disappointing year last year, and 7-0-1 is an impressive start. However, they've played 5 of those 8 games at home. Moreover, 6 of their 7 wins have been by 1 goal, and while Brandeis won the UAA and got to the Sweet 16 last year with 16 one-goal victories, I don't know if grinding out wins is Rochester's MO or whether they simply aren't able to score more consistently. I think the only team that they've played so far that might be (and far off given where they are right now) regionally ranked is RPI, and that was a 0-0 draw (albeit on the road, so perhaps a good result).

Looking at their schedule, it seems that Rochester frontloaded a bunch of easier games in the first half of their season (which concluded at Alfred), while the second half of their schedule sees them play all 7 UAA games (4 of which are away) plus Vassar, so things are definitely getting tougher. And while I can understand scheduling easier games earlier in the season to build confidence, the Yellowjackets could be in for a rude awakening when they start playing conference games, as they graduated 3 of 4 defenders IIRC. Certainly the signs are promising in terms of Rochester putting together a good season and getting a Pool C bid, but I could just as easily see them crumbling and going, say, 2-4-1 in the UAA. The jury is still out for me.

[rudy]

I don't like to predict scores, especially not for big rivalry games like Etown (19) at Messiah (20) where literally anything can happen.  They go in as evenly matched on paper as it has ever been.  Both teams are very young, with most of the best players either Fr or Soph.  Last year, when both teams had a few senior starters, Etown dominated the first half, got a great goal from Gilbert Waso (who was dangerous all game long), and Messiah dominated the second half without getting a goal. 1-0.  IMO Etown earned a spot in the tournament, but they were denied.  This game looms large in tournament hopes for both sides, and I expect a barn burner.

What to watch for?  How will Messiah defend MF Gilbert Waso?  He's a stud even at 5-5.  Probably the best player I saw in person last fall, when he was just a freshman, and he was indeed voted an AA.  Messiah had no answer for him.  If that is true again tonight, Etown probably wins.  However, Etown lost an AA defender (I think a Frenchman) to graduation while Messiah got quite a bit stronger in the back.  They also like to put a big man in as target, which can make things interesting on set plays or when Waso has the ball outside the box.  We'll have to see what happens.

On the other side of the ball, the most dangerous Falcons are Colby Thomas, who can break you down on the right side and either pass or shoot for a score; and Jacob Bender, who is now playing MF instead of in back, and who is extremely dangerous on free kicks--I'm starting to hear, "bend 'em like Bender."  He also takes the corner kicks, but the Falcons aren't as tall as they have been recently and they often take short corners instead, usually involving Colby.  Despite what I just said about Waso, it could be that Colby is as good as Waso now that he's healthy.  I haven't seen enough of him live yet to be confident of that--the streaming doesn't usually give good closeup views.

Last game for Messiah the back 4 was quite different due to 2 injuries to Shay and Dakota. Shifting players around and starting different players to fill in. Not sure what the back 4 will look like tonight.  The only constant had been Josh bender.  Still thinking at home they will prevail and score at least 2.

[rudy]

Great game..a tale of two halves.  Etown had better play and lots of pressure early in the game. Messiah settled in and had some real quality chances in 2nd half before finally getting the winner in first OT.   Good win for Messiah and Etown showed they are a solid team.  They had a dangerous player on their squad and Messiah defense did a good job limiting his opportunities. 

[Falconer]

Messiah 1, Etown zip, OT.  Both teams played well, but the Falcons dominated all three periods. Etown was very dangerous on set plays, nearly scoring twice, but the Falcon keeper came up big.  The difference defensively from last year is night and day.  This was their best defensive effort in two seasons, at least for games I've seen.

Rudy, the back line looked terrific tonight. They found an answer to Gilbert Waso, not allowing him any decent looks and doubling him up when he had the ball in the open field.  Falcons won with what looked like a deflected ground ball shot by Jacob Bender in the first OT.  It was a really good look, but not Jacob's best shot of the evening---that one was in the second half, a very well struck ball that was easily handled by Etown's keeper.  Concerning the GW shot, I'll have to see the replay to see what I actually saw.   

Etown's keeper also played well, but his back line was much more porous than Messiah's.  The sopping wet field certainly influenced the game--in one skip of the heartbeat, a Messiah defender just fell down of his own accord a few yards in front of the net, as the ball was being played into the box.  That was close.  Lots of missed passes that probably connect on a dry evening.  But, the Falcons still used their overall superiority in speed and quickness to their advantage.  Etown was broken down repeatedly on both wings.  Colby Thomas should have had two assists in the first half, on terrific passes across the goal mouth, but both time no one got a decent foot on it.  Nick West on the other side was not quite that dangerous, but he had the ball a lot more often than Colby and he didn't waste his chances.

If this one had ended with the opposite result, it would not have reflected the flow of the game.

A huge win for the Falcons. 

[backyarddawg]

Thoughts on results last night?

Any games this weekend which catch your eye?

[NEPAFAN]

Misercordia with a big time win against Lycoming. I think the Miseri game winner and Messiah game winner ( both in OT) were within seconds of each other in Real Time.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

I am afraid that is all she wrote for the Warriors. They have fallen into the category of all or nothing and are in the sad mix of Montclair, Brandeis, Tufts, Wheaton, and Loras of big time names that will not be dancing this season. It is sad to see all these talented teams struggle this year but that is why you play the game. Now obviously these teams still have the conference AQ to play for but it's that or bust for these teams right now.

[Shooter McGavin]

They have a chance to make it but it will be tough with how many teams are already ahead of them in the region.