Mid-Atlantic Region 2016

[D3soccerwatcher]

Lyco down 1-0 to Alvernia with 8 to go

Alvernia wins it 1-0
Lyco will have to win the tournament to get a return to NCAA's this year

Given how tough Alvernia played Messiah, I was not shocked (though I was a bit surprised) by this result.  Alvernia IMO is much better than their dismal W/L record.  Anyway, to get a sense of the game I looked at the box score, and Lycoming clearly dominated: Shots 23(9) to 5(5), corners 8 to 1.  Alvernia scored on a set piece in the first half and their keeper apparently played very well, though obviously you can't tell how difficult any of his 9 saves were.  Tough loss for the Warriors.

However, another statistic jumped out at me: 3 cards for each team, including a second yellow on one of the Warriors 63 minutes in.  I wonder what that was about.  I remember some here talking about a high number of cards in a couple other Lycoming games, so I took a look at the team statistics.  According to the mobile version, Lycoming already has 24 yellows and 2 reds, including 4 team yellows, while their opponents have 19 yellows.  Both numbers seem unusually high, so I looked up the numbers for all the other teams in the MAC Commonwealth.  No other team is anywhere close.  I won't do a team-by-team comparison, but I have to wonder what this is about.  Having not seen Lycoming play this year, I can't even hazard a guess, except the obvious two possibilities: perhaps they are just overly physical, sometimes unwisely so, or perhaps they complain a lot (is there any other way to get 4 cards against the bench in just 13 games?).

If anyone watches them regularly, and can sort this out with more authority, I'm all ears.

Of the 416 men's D3 soccer team in the country...

Lycoming ranks as follows (data updated by NCAA through 10/6):

6th in the country on total fouls (180)
15th in the country on yellow cards (22)

[Shooter McGavin]

Of the 416 men's D3 soccer team in the country...

Lycoming ranks as follows (data updated by NCAA through 10/6):

6th in the country on total fouls (180)
15th in the country on yellow cards (22)

Will you ever provide clarity on why this statistic is so important to you?

[Shooter McGavin]

My new rankings as of 10/6 would be this...

1. Messiah (8-0-3)
2. F&M (8-1-3)
3. Fords (7-2-2)
4. Etown (7-2-1)
5. Lycoming (6-3-3)
6. Scranton (7-3-0)
7. Hopkins (8-2-2)
8. Eastern (8-2-1)
9. Leb Val (8-2-0)
10. Manhatt (8-4-0)

RV: Misericordia (6-4-1), Gettysburg (5-3-1), Drew (6-2-2)

My new rankings as of 10/10...

1. Messiah (9-0-3)
2. F&M (9-1-3)
3. Fords (8-2-2)
4. Etown (8-2-1)
5. Scranton (8-3-0)
6. Hopkins (9-2-2)
7. Eastern (9-2-1)
8. Leb Val (9-2-0)
9. Drew (6-2-2)
10. Hood (9-2-0)

RV: Misericordia (7-4-1), Gettysburg (6-3-1), Lycoming (6-4-3), Goucher (6-2-5)

[D3soccerwatcher]

Of the 416 men's D3 soccer team in the country...

Lycoming ranks as follows (data updated by NCAA through 10/6):

6th in the country on total fouls (180)
15th in the country on yellow cards (22)

Will you ever provide clarity on why this statistic is so important to you?

I was responding to Falconer.

[Shooter McGavin]

Given how tough Alvernia played Messiah, I was not shocked (though I was a bit surprised) by this result.  Alvernia IMO is much better than their dismal W/L record.  Anyway, to get a sense of the game I looked at the box score, and Lycoming clearly dominated: Shots 23(9) to 5(5), corners 8 to 1.  Alvernia scored on a set piece in the first half and their keeper apparently played very well, though obviously you can't tell how difficult any of his 9 saves were.  Tough loss for the Warriors.

However, another statistic jumped out at me: 3 cards for each team, including a second yellow on one of the Warriors 63 minutes in.  I wonder what that was about.  I remember some here talking about a high number of cards in a couple other Lycoming games, so I took a look at the team statistics.  According to the mobile version, Lycoming already has 24 yellows and 2 reds, including 4 team yellows, while their opponents have 19 yellows.  Both numbers seem unusually high, so I looked up the numbers for all the other teams in the MAC Commonwealth.  No other team is anywhere close.  I won't do a team-by-team comparison, but I have to wonder what this is about.  Having not seen Lycoming play this year, I can't even hazard a guess, except the obvious two possibilities: perhaps they are just overly physical, sometimes unwisely so, or perhaps they complain a lot (is there any other way to get 4 cards against the bench in just 13 games?).

If anyone watches them regularly, and can sort this out with more authority, I'm all ears.

Combination of the two from what I have seen. I would not consider them a dirty team. They are a big, fast, strong, and sometimes overly physical team. I have not seen them play dirty in the dozen or so times I have watched them dating back to last year. 

[Shooter McGavin]

Of the 416 men's D3 soccer team in the country...

Lycoming ranks as follows (data updated by NCAA through 10/6):

6th in the country on total fouls (180)
15th in the country on yellow cards (22)

Will you ever provide clarity on why this statistic is so important to you?

I was responding to Falconer.

I thought I remembered you bringing this up last season and earlier this season, so I was just curious what your fascination was with yellow card accumulations for a team, specifically Lycoming. Good info though and glad there is a source out there to find that kind of data.   

[Falconer]

Of the 416 men's D3 soccer team in the country...

Lycoming ranks as follows (data updated by NCAA through 10/6):

6th in the country on total fouls (180)
15th in the country on yellow cards (22)

Will you ever provide clarity on why this statistic is so important to you?

Shooter,

I don't think there is any reason here to infer that d3sw places undue importance on that statistic.  He was obviously just presenting data in partial response to a question I had asked in some puzzlement.  If you look at my original question, in context, you will see that I was surprised (a) that Lyco lost to Alvernia (even though Alvernia is much better than their record), and (b) that a Lyco player got a second yellow with more than 20 minutes yet to play in a game when his team was down by a goal.  Surely that's a scenario that invites a question about the circumstances, and I was asking simply whether anyone who actually saw the game can tell us what happened.  I was also (c) surprised that 6 cards were given (total to both teams) in that game, which reminded me of some comments on this board earlier this season about high numbers of cards in other games involving Lycoming, so I looked up their team numbers.  I then looked at numbers for all other MAC Commonwealth teams, on the (perhaps true, perhaps false?) assumption that to some extent the same officials might be involved in other conference games.  I have not taken time to see whether that assumption is true.  In other words, I am wondering whether Lyco is a genuine outlier in this regard, and so far the data seem to suggest that.

I have drawn no larger conclusions from this, and I'm simply not qualified to do that.  I haven't seen Lyco play a single game; I don't know any of their players or the coach; I am not privy to the gossip around the league (if any).  My question is fair and open-minded: what's happening here?

If Lyco were an NJAC team (which they aren't), I would probably not even ask it, given the reputation of tough physical play in that conference.  But they aren't an NJAC team.  So, what's up?  If you can provide some context for that number, I'm all ears.  But, don't shoot the messenger.  This question is no different from asking why (e.g.) Rowan has turned it around--something else that has already been addressed on this board, by someone who follows them.

[Falconer]

I see that Shooter's reply to d3 came in while mine was being posted. Thanks to Shooter for his reply.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Lyco down 1-0 to Alvernia with 8 to go

Alvernia wins it 1-0
Lyco will have to win the tournament to get a return to NCAA's this year

With the way things are going for the Warriors they will be lucky to get a top 2 seed in the conference heading into playoffs. I can't see them missing playoffs all together, but I also didn't expect them to drop games/points to Misericordia, Arcadia, and Alvernia. A big disappointment so far for this team as they have not been able to handle the pressure and high expectations. I fully believe Messiah will be back in NCAAs one way or another, but the AQ is looking better each day for the Falcons.

Lycoming travels to Messiah on Tuesday night in a highly anticipated match. It's almost a must win for Lycoming, so I wonder how that will affect Messiah's preparation after a huge win at W&L over the weekend. Will Messiah come down off that high and refocus? Can Lycoming go on the road and get a much needed result? Tuesday night is a must watch for everyone.

[rudy]

Lyco down 1-0 to Alvernia with 8 to go

Alvernia wins it 1-0
Lyco will have to win the tournament to get a return to NCAA's this year

With the way things are going for the Warriors they will be lucky to get a top 2 seed in the conference heading into playoffs. I can't see them missing playoffs all together, but I also didn't expect them to drop games/points to Misericordia, Arcadia, and Alvernia. A big disappointment so far for this team as they have not been able to handle the pressure and high expectations. I fully believe Messiah will be back in NCAAs one way or another, but the AQ is looking better each day for the Falcons.

Lycoming travels to Messiah on Tuesday night in a highly anticipated match. It's almost a must win for Lycoming, so I wonder how that will affect Messiah's preparation after a huge win at W&L over the weekend. Will Messiah come down off that high and refocus? Can Lycoming go on the road and get a much needed result? Tuesday night is a must watch for everyone.

Looking forward to Tuesday game with Lycoming. Home game for Messiah and hungry to avenge last years 2 losses I'm sure. But Lycoming will bring all they have in this one to try to salvage their season and turn momentum around. They are still a dangerous team. Messiah should pull out the win at home but anything can happen.

[Falconer]

Lyco down 1-0 to Alvernia with 8 to go

Alvernia wins it 1-0
Lyco will have to win the tournament to get a return to NCAA's this year

With the way things are going for the Warriors they will be lucky to get a top 2 seed in the conference heading into playoffs. I can't see them missing playoffs all together, but I also didn't expect them to drop games/points to Misericordia, Arcadia, and Alvernia. A big disappointment so far for this team as they have not been able to handle the pressure and high expectations. I fully believe Messiah will be back in NCAAs one way or another, but the AQ is looking better each day for the Falcons.

Lycoming travels to Messiah on Tuesday night in a highly anticipated match. It's almost a must win for Lycoming, so I wonder how that will affect Messiah's preparation after a huge win at W&L over the weekend. Will Messiah come down off that high and refocus? Can Lycoming go on the road and get a much needed result? Tuesday night is a must watch for everyone.

Looking forward to Tuesday game with Lycoming. Home game for Messiah and hungry to avenge last years 2 losses I'm sure. But Lycoming will bring all they have in this one to try to salvage their season and turn momentum around. They are still a dangerous team. Messiah should pull out the win at home but anything can happen.

Earlier in the season I would actually have favored Lycoming, even on Messiah's large natural field.  But over the past couple weeks Messiah has clearly been playing better than Lyco, despite being without two of their best players who only just returned on Saturday (Thomas and Ruiz Plaza).  The Falcons are playing awfully well right now.  Obviously I hope they continue to play better every week, but that's up to them, isn't it?  As Rudy points out, "anything can happen," and sometimes it does. 

In terms of tournament implications, I think this game is actually much more important for Messiah than for Lycoming.  At this point, Lycoming must get the AQ, whereas if Messiah fails to get the AQ then a loss to Lycoming at home won't help their chances to get an at-large bid.  I'd be shocked if Lyco fails to qualify for the conference tournament--they are far too good a team for that.  So, if I'm Lyco, of course I want to beat Messiah twice, but if I can beat the Falcons just once it's the AQ that really matters.

This year is shaping up as a truly competitive one in the MAC Commonwealth.  LVC and Hood are both playing very well, so there are four teams with non-trivial chances of grabbing the AQ.  Messiah beat LVC 1-0 on the road, so that contest is already in the books, and they play Hood at home later this month.  If we ignore Hood's 2-0 loss to Rowan, they have only one blemish so far.  Admittedly they have not played another team that jumps out at you, but they know what to expect from the Falcons and they will surely be motivated to get a result.

I note that LVC plays at Hood tomorrow afternoon and at Lyco next Wednesday afternoon.  At that point we should have a much clearer idea about how this will shake out, even before Hood plays Lyco at home on Oct 22, three days before they play at Messiah.

[Falconer]

Concerning LVC vs Lycoming, one of the LVC seniors, Cam Alexander (who went to HS about 10 miles from my home), scored an ESPN highlight goal vs Lycoming 4 years ago as a freshman: http://www.d3soccer.com/greatgoals/2012/LVC-Cam-Unassisted

He also had a great goal vs Messiah the next year.  He's still around b/c he missed a season to injury. And, he's still dangerous, though I think the injury has made him less so.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

My new rankings as of 10/6 would be this...

1. Messiah (8-0-3)
2. F&M (8-1-3)
3. Fords (7-2-2)
4. Etown (7-2-1)
5. Lycoming (6-3-3)
6. Scranton (7-3-0)
7. Hopkins (8-2-2)
8. Eastern (8-2-1)
9. Leb Val (8-2-0)
10. Manhatt (8-4-0)

RV: Misericordia (6-4-1), Gettysburg (5-3-1), Drew (6-2-2)

My new rankings as of 10/10...

1. Messiah (9-0-3)
2. F&M (9-1-3)
3. Fords (8-2-2)
4. Etown (8-2-1)
5. Scranton (8-3-0)
6. Hopkins (9-2-2)
7. Eastern (9-2-1)
8. Leb Val (9-2-0)
9. Drew (6-2-2)
10. Hood (9-2-0)

RV: Misericordia (7-4-1), Gettysburg (6-3-1), Lycoming (6-4-3), Goucher (6-2-5)

I would flip Drew and Hood. Other than that spot on.

[rudy]

Lyco down 1-0 to Alvernia with 8 to go

Alvernia wins it 1-0
Lyco will have to win the tournament to get a return to NCAA's this year

With the way things are going for the Warriors they will be lucky to get a top 2 seed in the conference heading into playoffs. I can't see them missing playoffs all together, but I also didn't expect them to drop games/points to Misericordia, Arcadia, and Alvernia. A big disappointment so far for this team as they have not been able to handle the pressure and high expectations. I fully believe Messiah will be back in NCAAs one way or another, but the AQ is looking better each day for the Falcons.

Lycoming travels to Messiah on Tuesday night in a highly anticipated match. It's almost a must win for Lycoming, so I wonder how that will affect Messiah's preparation after a huge win at W&L over the weekend. Will Messiah come down off that high and refocus? Can Lycoming go on the road and get a much needed result? Tuesday night is a must watch for everyone.

Looking forward to Tuesday game with Lycoming. Home game for Messiah and hungry to avenge last years 2 losses I'm sure. But Lycoming will bring all they have in this one to try to salvage their season and turn momentum around. They are still a dangerous team. Messiah should pull out the win at home but anything can happen.

Earlier in the season I would actually have favored Lycoming, even on Messiah's large natural field.  But over the past couple weeks Messiah has clearly been playing better than Lyco, despite being without two of their best players who only just returned on Saturday (Thomas and Ruiz Plaza).  The Falcons are playing awfully well right now.  Obviously I hope they continue to play better every week, but that's up to them, isn't it?  As Rudy points out, "anything can happen," and sometimes it does. 

In terms of tournament implications, I think this game is actually much more important for Messiah than for Lycoming.  At this point, Lycoming must get the AQ, whereas if Messiah fails to get the AQ then a loss to Lycoming at home won't help their chances to get an at-large bid.  I'd be shocked if Lyco fails to qualify for the conference tournament--they are far too good a team for that.  So, if I'm Lyco, of course I want to beat Messiah twice, but if I can beat the Falcons just once it's the AQ that really matters.

This year is shaping up as a truly competitive one in the MAC Commonwealth.  LVC and Hood are both playing very well, so there are four teams with non-trivial chances of grabbing the AQ.  Messiah beat LVC 1-0 on the road, so that contest is already in the books, and they play Hood at home later this month.  If we ignore Hood's 2-0 loss to Rowan, they have only one blemish so far.  Admittedly they have not played another team that jumps out at you, but they know what to expect from the Falcons and they will surely be motivated to get a result.

I note that LVC plays at Hood tomorrow afternoon and at Lyco next Wednesday afternoon.  At that point we should have a much clearer idea about how this will shake out, even before Hood plays Lyco at home on Oct 22, three days before they play at Messiah.

Lvc vs Hood and Messiah vs Lycoming tomorrow. Could be preview of MACC conf semi finals?

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Mid-Week Action

Tuesday

Lycoming@ #13 Messiah
LVC@Hood
Eastern@Misericordia

Wednesday

Dickinson@Scranton
Susquehanna@Gettysburg
Drew@Swat