Mid-Atlantic Region 2016

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Mid-Atlantic 1st Round Match-ups
Fords vs Merchant Marine
Etown vs Vassar
Eastern vs Rochester
Messiah vs Centenary
Morrisville vs Cortland
Scranton vs Behrend
F&M vs Geneva

Toughest Game:
Morrisville vs Cortland

Easiest Game: (please keep in mind there are no easy games at this point!!!)
Messiah vs Centenary

Most Intriguing Game:
Eastern vs Rochester

Toughest Grouping: (toughest group that contains a Mid-Atlantic team)
F&M, Geneva, SLU, W&L

Best Chance to make Final 4:
F&M if they survive round 2

Some side notes...
Messiah with a difficult 2nd round match regardless of who wins. Looking past that any of the 4 teams from the next quadrant that they would meet in round 3 is brutal. I believe this section will be extremely difficult for Messiah to come out of. I hate to say it because they are extremely talented but the draw did not favor the Falcons this year. I think they get tripped up before the Final 4. Haverford has an easier road if they get past Rowan but I think they are a little down this year and will get tripped up early as well. If F&M can survive round 2 I think you will see them make the Elite 8. Wouldn't it be something if they met Messiah for a trip to the Final 4?! One can only hope of a match-up like that which would guarantee a Mid-Atlantic team in the Final 4. It's an up hill battle for the region from my perspective. 

[rudy]

Mid-Atlantic 1st Round Match-ups
Fords vs Merchant Marine
Etown vs Vassar
Eastern vs Rochester
Messiah vs Centenary
Morrisville vs Cortland
Scranton vs Behrend
F&M vs Geneva

Toughest Game:
Morrisville vs Cortland

Easiest Game: (please keep in mind there are no easy games at this point!!!)
Messiah vs Centenary

Most Intriguing Game:
Eastern vs Rochester

Toughest Grouping: (toughest group that contains a Mid-Atlantic team)
F&M, Geneva, SLU, W&L

Best Chance to make Final 4:
F&M if they survive round 2

Some side notes...
Messiah with a difficult 2nd round match regardless of who wins. Looking past that any of the 4 teams from the next quadrant that they would meet in round 3 is brutal. I believe this section will be extremely difficult for Messiah to come out of. I hate to say it because they are extremely talented but the draw did not favor the Falcons this year. I think they get tripped up before the Final 4. Haverford has an easier road if they get past Rowan but I think they are a little down this year and will get tripped up early as well. If F&M can survive round 2 I think you will see them make the Elite 8. Wouldn't it be something if they met Messiah for a trip to the Final 4?! One can only hope of a match-up like that which would guarantee a Mid-Atlantic team in the Final 4. It's an up hill battle for the region from my perspective.

Playing msu at home will be a definite advantage for Messiah assuming they win first game.  You have to play good teams at some point to get to final 4 no matter what region you are in.

[PaulNewman]

I actually think Messiah has a decent draw.  Outside of Montclair (interesting that we might see that after discussion a few days ago!!!), I don't see a lot to trouble the Falcons.  Some good teams for sure but wouldn't favor any of them over Messiah.  And CNU might take out Montclair.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

They could have had an easier path is what I was trying to get at. Obviously there are no easy games at this point, but some are better suited than others. From my perspective, there are 11 teams in that section that can make a run to the Final 4...

Messiah
Montclair
CNU
CMU
OWU
Calvin
ONU
Cortland
F&M
W&L
SLU

For the other 3 sections I would say something like this...

5 teams in Amherst section
Amherst
Babson
Brandeis
Newark
Oneonta
----------------------------
5 teams in Chicago section
Chicago
DePauw
Wash U
Carthage
UWW
---------------------------
7 teams from Rowan section
Rowan
Tufts
Fords
UMass Boston
Trinity
Whitworth
Kenyon

These are obviously just my thoughts but I think it's safe to say that the competition is a little heavier in Messiah's section than others. Now I am not saying that they wouldn't be favored in their games...but just more of a chance to get tripped up.

[PaulNewman]

MAF, I respectfully disagree.  I'll have to look through them all more carefully again, but I'll give you the Chicago quad.

Otherwise, let's talk about just from Messiah's and Kenyon's perspectives. You are counting the entire Carnegie Mellon pod.  Only one team there will survive and advance and so only one of those could be a potential foe for Messiah.  The Montclair-Newport winner (again only have to play one of them, not both) is a tough game for the second round for a #1 seed.  A Sweet 16 game against the survivor of the CMU pod is fair, and while all good teams capable of a big upset it would be a big upset for any of those four.  In the Elite 8 you only play the survivor among F&M, Cortland, Scranton, SLU, W&L, etc.  So feel bad for SLU and W&L having to play each other in the FIRST ROUND, but that shouldn't trouble a Messiah fan.  Again, which team out of those do you fear the most?  F&M?  Messiah would be favored significantly, if not heavily, against F&M on its home field.

Now Kenyon.  1st round against Maryville, a 18-2 team that handed BOTH Roanoke and Centre their worst losses of the season (4-0 and 6-1).  If they advance, Kenyon would get Lynchburg (16-1-4) on its own field before a large, raucous Lynchburg crowd OR fellow Ohio foe John Carroll currently on a roll and capable of giving anyone in the country a tough game.  In the Sweet 16 we could get 20-1 Trinity, as tough as any possible Sweet 16 game for Messiah. And then in the Elite 8 it's likely the winner of Rowan/Tufts or Haverford/UMass-Boston.  Again, that Elite 8 projects to be as tough as anything Messiah would face.

So Chicago has a good path.  And Amherst basically has a pass all the way to the Sweet 16 where its toughest opponent would be Babson or Brandeis.  RUN or Oneonta (if they survive) in the Elite 8 would present a challenge but one where Amherst likely again on its home field would be significantly favored. 

Like I think you said, you can't get to the Final Four without beating somebody good, unless of course the top challengers get upset before that and clear a path even more.

[Flying Weasel]

A Sweet 16 game against the survivor of the CMU pod is fair, and while all good teams capable of a big upset it would be a big upset for any of those four.  In the Elite 8 you only play the survivor among F&M, Cortland, Scranton, SLU, W&L, etc.  So feel bad for SLU and W&L having to play each other in the FIRST ROUND, but that shouldn't trouble a Messiah fan.  Again, which team out of those do you fear the most?  F&M?  Messiah would be favored significantly, if not heavily, against F&M on its home field.

Messiah men most likely won't be hosting Sectionals as women have Sectional hosting priority  in even numbered years.  The Falcon ladies have to travel this weekend for the same reason: men have 1st/2nd Round hosting priority in even numbered years.

[Falconer]

MAF, I respectfully disagree.  I'll have to look through them all more carefully again, but I'll give you the Chicago quad.

Otherwise, let's talk about just from Messiah's and Kenyon's perspectives. You are counting the entire Carnegie Mellon pod.  Only one team there will survive and advance and so only one of those could be a potential foe for Messiah.  The Montclair-Newport winner (again only have to play one of them, not both) is a tough game for the second round for a #1 seed.  A Sweet 16 game against the survivor of the CMU pod is fair, and while all good teams capable of a big upset it would be a big upset for any of those four.  In the Elite 8 you only play the survivor among F&M, Cortland, Scranton, SLU, W&L, etc.  So feel bad for SLU and W&L having to play each other in the FIRST ROUND, but that shouldn't trouble a Messiah fan.  Again, which team out of those do you fear the most?  F&M?  Messiah would be favored significantly, if not heavily, against F&M on its home field.

Now Kenyon.  1st round against Maryville, a 18-2 team that handed BOTH Roanoke and Centre their worst losses of the season (4-0 and 6-1).  If they advance, Kenyon would get Lynchburg (16-1-4) on its own field before a large, raucous Lynchburg crowd OR fellow Ohio foe John Carroll currently on a roll and capable of giving anyone in the country a tough game.  In the Sweet 16 we could get 20-1 Trinity, as tough as any possible Sweet 16 game for Messiah. And then in the Elite 8 it's likely the winner of Rowan/Tufts or Haverford/UMass-Boston.  Again, that Elite 8 projects to be as tough as anything Messiah would face.

So Chicago has a good path.  And Amherst basically has a pass all the way to the Sweet 16 where its toughest opponent would be Babson or Brandeis.  RUN or Oneonta (if they survive) in the Elite 8 would present a challenge but one where Amherst likely again on its home field would be significantly favored. 

Like I think you said, you can't get to the Final Four without beating somebody good, unless of course the top challengers get upset before that and clear a path even more.

FW is right: If Messiah plays F&M, it won't be on their home field--unless the women get knocked out this weekend.  So, as in 2014 (when the Falcons lost to Tufts on a small, muddy field at Muhlenberg), the Falcons don't get home field advantage on the second weekend.  Ditto for Chicago, not that they need that in their bracket.

Actually, when Brandt was coaching the Falcons, he preferred to play tournament games on the road: fewer distractions, in his opinion.  Indeed the only time the Falcons played at home in the final four, 2001, they lost in the semi-final.

[firstplaceloser]

although messiah may have the toughest looking bracket, it will help them in the elite 8 and final 4 rounds. from past experience we had to be 4 teams that were nationally ranked in the top 25, THEN on top of that had to play the best Messiah team in school history. looking back at it i wouldn't change a thing. every game was so close and nerve racking just like it should be.

[rudy]

MAF, I respectfully disagree.  I'll have to look through them all more carefully again, but I'll give you the Chicago quad.

Otherwise, let's talk about just from Messiah's and Kenyon's perspectives. You are counting the entire Carnegie Mellon pod.  Only one team there will survive and advance and so only one of those could be a potential foe for Messiah.  The Montclair-Newport winner (again only have to play one of them, not both) is a tough game for the second round for a #1 seed.  A Sweet 16 game against the survivor of the CMU pod is fair, and while all good teams capable of a big upset it would be a big upset for any of those four.  In the Elite 8 you only play the survivor among F&M, Cortland, Scranton, SLU, W&L, etc.  So feel bad for SLU and W&L having to play each other in the FIRST ROUND, but that shouldn't trouble a Messiah fan.  Again, which team out of those do you fear the most?  F&M?  Messiah would be favored significantly, if not heavily, against F&M on its home field.

Now Kenyon.  1st round against Maryville, a 18-2 team that handed BOTH Roanoke and Centre their worst losses of the season (4-0 and 6-1).  If they advance, Kenyon would get Lynchburg (16-1-4) on its own field before a large, raucous Lynchburg crowd OR fellow Ohio foe John Carroll currently on a roll and capable of giving anyone in the country a tough game.  In the Sweet 16 we could get 20-1 Trinity, as tough as any possible Sweet 16 game for Messiah. And then in the Elite 8 it's likely the winner of Rowan/Tufts or Haverford/UMass-Boston.  Again, that Elite 8 projects to be as tough as anything Messiah would face.

So Chicago has a good path.  And Amherst basically has a pass all the way to the Sweet 16 where its toughest opponent would be Babson or Brandeis.  RUN or Oneonta (if they survive) in the Elite 8 would present a challenge but one where Amherst likely again on its home field would be significantly favored. 

Like I think you said, you can't get to the Final Four without beating somebody good, unless of course the top challengers get upset before that and clear a path even more.

FW is right: If Messiah plays F&M, it won't be on their home field--unless the women get knocked out this weekend.  So, as in 2014 (when the Falcons lost to Tufts on a small, muddy field at Muhlenberg), the Falcons don't get home field advantage on the second weekend.  Ditto for Chicago, not that they need that in their bracket.

Actually, when Brandt was coaching the Falcons, he preferred to play tournament games on the road: fewer distractions, in his opinion.  Indeed the only time the Falcons played at home in the final four, 2001, they lost in the semi-final.

So where would they likely play if they made it to sectionals? Highest remaining seed? They don't list seed# in brackets which seems odd.

[PaulNewman]

I'll stand by my overall point.  I DO believe MSU will or would be dangerous, even on Messiah's field, but who knows with MSU and whether they'll even get by CNU.  After that, I don't see who would beat Messiah.  I don't think F&M would beat them on any field.  So, I can go along with maybe a tough break with such a tough 2nd round match but they do have home field for that and otherwise I think their quad is pretty good for them.  As I said in another thread, IMO Chicago, Messiah and Amherst are fairly strong favorites to reach the Final Four.

[firstplaceloser]

I'll stand by my overall point.  I DO believe MSU will or would be dangerous, even on Messiah's field, but who knows with MSU and whether they'll even get by CNU.  After that, I don't see who would beat Messiah.  I don't think F&M would beat them on any field.  So, I can go along with maybe a tough break with such a tough 2nd round match but they do have home field for that and otherwise I think their quad is pretty good for them.  As I said in another thread, IMO Chicago, Messiah and Amherst are fairly strong favorites to reach the Final Four.

the last quad is a toss up. so many teams could some out there

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

MAF, I respectfully disagree.  I'll have to look through them all more carefully again, but I'll give you the Chicago quad.

Otherwise, let's talk about just from Messiah's and Kenyon's perspectives. You are counting the entire Carnegie Mellon pod.  Only one team there will survive and advance and so only one of those could be a potential foe for Messiah.  The Montclair-Newport winner (again only have to play one of them, not both) is a tough game for the second round for a #1 seed.  A Sweet 16 game against the survivor of the CMU pod is fair, and while all good teams capable of a big upset it would be a big upset for any of those four.  In the Elite 8 you only play the survivor among F&M, Cortland, Scranton, SLU, W&L, etc.  So feel bad for SLU and W&L having to play each other in the FIRST ROUND, but that shouldn't trouble a Messiah fan.  Again, which team out of those do you fear the most?  F&M?  Messiah would be favored significantly, if not heavily, against F&M on its home field.

Now Kenyon.  1st round against Maryville, a 18-2 team that handed BOTH Roanoke and Centre their worst losses of the season (4-0 and 6-1).  If they advance, Kenyon would get Lynchburg (16-1-4) on its own field before a large, raucous Lynchburg crowd OR fellow Ohio foe John Carroll currently on a roll and capable of giving anyone in the country a tough game.  In the Sweet 16 we could get 20-1 Trinity, as tough as any possible Sweet 16 game for Messiah. And then in the Elite 8 it's likely the winner of Rowan/Tufts or Haverford/UMass-Boston.  Again, that Elite 8 projects to be as tough as anything Messiah would face.

So Chicago has a good path.  And Amherst basically has a pass all the way to the Sweet 16 where its toughest opponent would be Babson or Brandeis.  RUN or Oneonta (if they survive) in the Elite 8 would present a challenge but one where Amherst likely again on its home field would be significantly favored. 

Like I think you said, you can't get to the Final Four without beating somebody good, unless of course the top challengers get upset before that and clear a path even more.

I understand what you're saying and not even entirely disagreeing. My point is that there are more possibilities of teams that could come out of Messiah's section than others based on name recognition and rankings. I think you posted elsewhere where Messiah and Rowan have a similar amount of ranked teams from top 15 compared to Amherst and Chicago. That's what I was trying to hint at 

[lastguyoffthebench]

ECAC Division III Men's Soccer Championship
 
Region 1 First Round – Saturday, Nov. 12 at Rutgers University - Camden
No. 1 Rutgers - Camden (8-8-4) vs. No. 4 Hunter (10-7-1) at Rutgers - Camden 11:00 a.m.
No. 2 Drew (10-5-3) vs. No. 3 NYU (9-7-2) at Rutgers - Camden 2:00 p.m.
 
Region 2 First Round - Saturday, Nov. 12 at Lebanon Valley College
No. 1 Lebanon Valley (14-4-0) vs. No. 4 Cabrini (12-7-1) at Lebanon Valley 11:00 a.m.
No. 2 Grove City (14-4-1) vs. No. 3 Arcadia (9-7-4) at Lebanon Valley 2:00 p.m.
 
Region 3 First Round – Saturday, Nov. 12 at Ramapo College
No. 1 Ramapo (10-4-3) vs. No. 4 CSI (11-7-2) at Ramapo 11:00 a.m.
No. 2 William Paterson (8-8-2) vs. No. 3 Moravian (8-4-4) at Ramapo 2:00 p.m.

Region 4 First Round – Saturday, Nov. 12 at Alfred University
No. 1 Alfred University (8-7-2) vs. No. 4 Cobleskill (8-8-2) at Alfred 5:00 p.m.
No. 2 PSU - Altoona (11-7-1) vs. No. 3 PSU - Harrisburg (11-8-0) at Alfred 7:00 p.m.

Quarterfinals - Sunday, Nov. 13
Quarterfinal #1: 12:00 p.m.
Quarterfinal #2: 12:00 p.m.
Quarterfinal #3: 12:00 p.m.
Quarterfinal #4: 2:00 p.m.
 
Semifinals – Saturday, Nov. 19 at highest remaining seed
Semifinal #1: 11:00 a.m.
Semifinal #2   2:00 p.m.
 
Championship – Sunday, Nov. 20 at highest remaining seed
Winner Semifinal #1 vs. Winner Semifinal #2 – 12:00 p.m.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Mid-Atlantic Region goes 6 wins and 1 loss in the first round. Followed up by 2-4 in the second round. Messiah and F&M are all that remain from the region. Only 1 team can make the Final 4 since they are both in the same quadrant. Messiah will have their hands full with Calvin as will F&M with Cortland. The long wait for the weekend begins 

[lastguyoffthebench]

We saw the Messiah schedule drop off in 2015 when they lost Payne, Thompson, Brandt, and Ramirez.     

Messiah looked strong vs Noke.   In a seemingly down year, I think Messiah will return to dominance.    There are only 2 teams that could reach the Elite 8 in my opinion...  Messiah and Haverford.   I will have to watch Lycoming more this season, but going on a softer schedule last year and a close game vs Amherst is not indicative of a sure thing to a deeper run in 2016.

They still have a tough 7 game stretch and will seemingly have to win the MACC.   Starting out 3-4-2 would put a ton of pressure on Lyco... with Miseri and THEN at Oneonta St late in the season when the Red Dragons should be in strong form.   

at Susqu today...   Crusaders will probably just absorb pressure and try to escape with a DRAW. 
at Eastern
at Haverford
gimme vs Juniata
vs Scranton
vs Frostburg St  (Frostburg could cause some problems and should not be overlooked); similar shot count vs Alvernia last year; both were 9 - 7
vs CWRU

WIN OR BUST for the WARRIORS after dropping the first two games...

Sorry last guy but Messiah will not return to dominance this year and by no means will they have a shot to make the Elite 8. Messiah will be lucky to get a bid this year if they don't win the MACC.

F&M has a legit shot with the games being at Messiah.  However, I'll pick Cortland St in this clash.