2016 Great Lakes Region

[PaulNewman]

Fascinating race in the NCAC...

With just one week (two games) to go, not a single team out of the top 5 is safe.  Wonder when the last time that happened.

Just based on schedule, you would think Oberlin is in the safest (if not the best) shape.  They have Hiram away and Denison at home.  This is the kind of spot where a surprise draw could be deadly.  Denison will remember Oberlin knocking them out on the last day the year before.

Kenyon is currently in first place but has tough remaining games with OWU at home and then a surging Wabash on the road.  Lose both or even lose and draw, and the Lords could/would be done.

Wabash, currently in second place, also has very tough closing games, with DePauw and Kenyon, although they do get both of those at home at Mud Hollow.

DePauw has the key game with Wabash and then Allegheny at home.  They also have a key tie-breaker with both Kenyon and OWU.  The winner of DPU-Wabash will be golden and the loser could be in trouble.  BIG game in Indiana.

OWU closes with Kenyon away (and usually home field hasn't meant a lot with these two teams) and Hiram.  I'm not 100% sure, but I think they must win the Kenyon game as I'm not sure a draw will be enough to get them in.  BIG game in Ohio.  Hiram at home should be no problem. 

[Domino1195]

In addition to the race in the NCAC there are several other great final week conference match-ups in the Great Lakes region:

My take on the NCAC final week: I think Wabash drops two and finishes out of the NCAC playoffs; Kenyon and DePauw finish 1-2 with 2 wins this week.  Wabash has won 4 straight - not by convincing margins against the lower half of the NCAC.  They will have to dig deep to win both games this week. I have questions about Oberlin's defense and I think they draw one - if not two matches this week.  If they go 1-0-1 they finish third ahead of OWU; if they draw 2 then they finished tied with OWU at 5-2-2.

The AMCC serves up a perfect match for the season finale tomorrow night as 7-0-1 PSU-Behrand hosts 7-0-1 Medaille.  Gotta love the schedule makers! The SOS for these two teams is below .500 and even with two wins each last week - probably got weaker. This is a one bid league and they most likely will meet again in the conference championship on Nov 5th.

OAC - ONU finishes at 7-0-2; JCU dominating performance against Capital has them in the driver's seat - win out and they are the #1 seed with an 8-0-1.  But as Lee Corso might say: "Not so fast!" JCU is at the home of the Parked Bus tomorrow night: Mt Union.  Mt. Union lost to ONU 1-0 - took ONU over 80 minutes to score; and they tied Capital 0-0.  JCU needs to stay focused after that win Saturday and not give into frustration that Mt Union will assuredly bring. Capital may go 2-0, may go 0-0-2 - but I expect they will do enough this week to finish 3rd.  After that it gets very interesting. Mt. Union, Otterbein, Marietta and Heidelberg all have a scenario in which each could achieve a 4-4-1 record.  Marietta at Otterbein tomorrow night should be a battle; Otterbein finishes at home on Saturday vs Mt. Union.  Otterbein lost both of these home match-ups last year.  Win both and they are in.

Rose-Hulman and Hanover are headed for a major collision on Saturday - winner takes the conference IF Hanover doesn't stumble at Mt. St. Joe's on Wednesday. At 9-4-3 Mt. St. Joe's won't be a pushover.  But if Rose and Hanover take care of business midweek they promise to provide a classic on Sat evening.

Geneva finishes the PRAC undefeated with an 8-0 record; Grove City should finish 7-1-1. Thomas More - dropping both must-win matches last week vs GCC and Geneva "SHOULD" win two this week and claim 3rd.  I think Westminister does enough this week to claim fourth.  Sets up first round games with Geneva hosting Westminster and GCC hosting Thomas More.

As far as the next regional rankings:  many of the ranked teams went 2-0 last week - but most against weaker competition. Without doing all the math - OWU looks like the only previously ranked team to increase in SOS.  I think JCU may make into the top 8 - last week's SOS of .554, two wins against Otterbein (.537) and Capital (.5) - will be fun to discuss Wednesday as to the impact of SOS versus previously ranked teams going 2-0 and possibly failing out of the top 8. Rose-Hulman - now at 11-5 and an SOS of .54 last week - have two wins over sub .500 opponents - need that victory over Hanover on Sat.

[PaulNewman]

Kenyon got a criticai win today over OWU.  Easily the best overall performance of the year and more impressive because there was significant pressure on the Lords against an archrival that they knew was fully capable of beating them.  Their collective backs were against the wall.  It wasn't perfect and I wish they could have generated a few more hard shots on goal, but they seemed to have the right intensity and didn't really allow OWU to get into a flow or comfort zone.  Lee had his best game of the season.  He and Jeon are still struggling a bit with final third product, but they were running hard, focused, and looked stuck in.  Myers and Lowry at the CB positions were huge, and Wynn had another all around good game.  Eudy and Glassman were good.  Amolo played very well and showed his quality and Carmona was superb.  Koval and Stengel gave them great minutes up top off the bench.  Nobody on this team is good enough to mail it in and hopefully they are finally learning the level of intensity/focus they need to be close to what they hoped to be.  When that is there as a whole group playing for each other they are a very good team.

I caught the tail end of Wabash and DePauw.  Wabash was under siege for at least the last 12-15 minutes and I'm not sure how DPU didn't get one in.  Looked like the ball skipped right in front of the goal several times with DPU right there but somehow the ball stayed out.  Wabash fought them off like crazy and punched a playoff ticket.  Time to give the Wabash coach a ton of credit.  I like how he gives a comment after every game win or lose, he obviously has embraced the program, loves his kids, and the results are showing.  Wabash has a chance to win the conference Saturday.

Didn't know that this is Wabash's first win over DPU in 17 years.

Here is the 40 yard strike that unfortunately wasn't well-captured by videography...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=18FjRNtNSgI

[Domino1195]

Ryan Harmanis knocks it out of the park two weeks in a row.  Last week's article on mental toughness, this week's article - specifically the section about playing time.  It is truly disheartening to see a team on the verge of achieving great things come undone because of the inability to dig deep when faced with The Grind games. And it is reprehensible that concerns about playing time become more important than team results.

I have commented on a few clubs that I have seen play where collections of individuals - and some of these collections contain incredibly talented players - took the field instead of a team. Teams win - collections of individuals lose. In the beginning of the year many teams struggle to incorporate new players, replace senior leadership.  Teams emerge when individuals buy-in to accept the roles in front of them - and those teams will win their share of games. But collections of individuals will always underachieve and ultimately lose.

[Mr.Right]

Ryan Harmanis knocks it out of the park two weeks in a row.  Last week's article on mental toughness, this week's article - specifically the section about playing time.  It is truly disheartening to see a team on the verge of achieving great things come undone because of the inability to dig deep when faced with The Grind games. And it is reprehensible that concerns about playing time become more important than team results.

I have commented on a few clubs that I have seen play where collections of individuals - and some of these collections contain incredibly talented players - took the field instead of a team. Teams win - collections of individuals lose. In the beginning of the year many teams struggle to incorporate new players, replace senior leadership.  Teams emerge when individuals buy-in to accept the roles in front of them - and those teams will win their share of games. But collections of individuals will always underachieve and ultimately lose.

Personally, since I enjoy tactics I found his pressing articles the best but well done and thank you for doing all these. You have a mind of a good young coach who should be coaching in college and teaching these kids the right way to play the game. I have no idea what your career is but to give back to the game what it has given you would be fantastic especially with such a bright young mind..

On a more pessimistic note I took the Substitution article to be a nice subtle jab at Messiah and all those Championships won by doing exactly what you were complaining about.

[PaulNewman]

Probably could use another thread to respond to columns and such.

OWU has a history of substituting as frequently and liberally as any other school I am aware of this side of Loras, so I kind of doubt there is an argument directed at Messiah.  That said, I wholeheartedly disagree especially at the D3 level and with the whole D3 "mission" in mind.  I don't think D3 is supposed to or should mirror La Liga.  Major limitations on subbing is great is you are a starter but I think flies in the face of greater participation.  in some ways the two themes of the column, I think unintended, kind of contradict one another.  Playing time is a huge issue and there can be razor thin differences between players 8 thru 11 and 12 thur 15 and again between 12 thru 15 and 16 thru 19/20 on many good D3 teams.  I am all for team unity and goals and individual sacrifice, but let's be realistic.  PLAYING is a big deal, especially for D3 kids putting in a ton of time and personal commitment each and every year, waiting their turn, perceiving oneself to be as good as or better than kids playing ahead of you, etc, etc.  Certainly no simplistic answers here.  At any rate, playing time for more kids would be seriously hampered by major restrictions on substitutions.

And I can definitely relate to how difficult it is to be a parent/brother/relative/friend/partner to a kid who you know is a great kid, who you know will give 110%, who "deserves" a shot, etc, etc, etc.  I'm sure it's not easy for the coaches either.  The decisions I'm sure often can be razor thin for them as well and coaches who have overall happy teams are doing something right and I'd love to know the key ingredients to that.  There are also differences in how coaches handle "ties" between upperclassmen and frosh, with some giving the close call to the upperclassmen and some falling in love with the new kids.  Interesting but very complex issues IMO.

[Flying Weasel]

I am in an interesting position being a Messiah fan through and through, but also fully supporting more limited substitution rules for college soccer, at least until the past few years when my stance has softened a bit.  I'm not going to delve into my opinions before and now in this post, but rather just state some reactions/comments to Ryan's piece in the context of how Messiah uses subs.

I read his critiques and some of them I simultaneously was partially agreeing while also questioning if the negative effect he was proclaiming was really that bad in reality. 

For example, though Messiah uses more subs than most teams, it does not result in more stoppages of play for substitutions because they send them in in groups of 4 to 6 players.  So while one team subs in a player or two, Messiah sends in four or five.  Just one stoppage, though perhaps a little longer in duration.

As to it breaking up the flow of play, while that may be true, in the great majority of Messiah's games over the past decade plus, Messiah's opponents would have been the team having the most to gain from a break in the flow of the game, not Messiah.  Messiah certainly did not and does not maximize their substitutions as a way of breaking the flow of play.

Regarding lowering the quality of play, given the strength and depth of Messiah's bench, their play usually didn't drop off that much and was often still above many other teams' starting unit.  If anything, it allowed their starters to play at a higher level each minute they were on the field right up to the end of the game given they got extended rest each half and weren't really tiring at all.

Also, Messiah never really used their extensive substitutions to emphasis a high pressing approach to the extent of perhaps Loras in recent years.  Messiah was still all about maintaining possession and having a balance of patience and urgency in attack.  That is, while they would want to win the ball back as quickly as possible, the Falcons' emphasis was much more on not losing possession in the first place compared to teams that intentfully took more risks going forward knowing they had the subs to be able to employ a high press everytime the ball was lost.  Messiah has almost always been the fittest team on the field, and they have rarely been out-worked or out-hustled, but I don't think anyone would describe them as flying all over the field with no concern for fatigue.

Now, of course, Ryan's critiques need to be read in the context of D-III soccer as a whole, and Messiah does not represent the norm or average, so the above is NOT a criticism of or rebuttal to what Ryan wrote.  Just some thoughts that ran through this Messiah fan's head as he read the piece.

[DonkeyTouch]

Marietta scores in the 13th minute and holds on to beat ONU 1-0... just now went final.  Shots were only 17-11 in ONU favor. 3 uncharacteristic yellows for ONU, probably frustration fouls as they saw their undefeated regular season slipping away.

Wow.

2 things... the goal was conceded on a restart - long throw in.... and the game was at Etta on the grass.

ONU won't have a pool C shot now.... big battle coming up in the OAC tournament for that AQ!

[Domino1195]

Marietta scores in the 13th minute and holds on to beat ONU 1-0... just now went final.  Shots were only 17-11 in ONU favor. 3 uncharacteristic yellows for ONU, probably frustration fouls as they saw their undefeated regular season slipping away.

Wow.

2 things... the goal was conceded on a restart - long throw in.... and the game was at Etta on the grass.

ONU won't have a pool C shot now.... big battle coming up in the OAC tournament for that AQ!

Crappiest video feed ever - but I thought the goal came from a long kick over the back line? There's that grass field again - and I'm being generous calling that a grass field. But congrats to Marietta and my son's HS teammate Tyler Sholl - Marietta keeper

[PaulNewman]

I think it's premature to count ONU out for a Pool C.  Sur a loss isn't helpful but the record is still stellar.  The SoS was going to be an issue whether they had a loss or not.  It would be truly unfair for a team like ONU to not receive a bid.  This isn't some obscure team with a great record.  By the eye test they played a decent schedule (Oberlin, OWU, CWRU).  And the real kicker which I'm not sure has really been underscored in these SoS discussions is that the very teams that might get a bid over ONU are teams that got SoS-rich in good measure off of ONU! SO it's not just the SoS but the double and triple unintended effects of SoS.  Oberlin and OWU benefited greatly from playing ONU.  Either or both of those teams getting a bid over ONU would just seem like a travesty.  The other scenario of course is that if ONU needs and gets a Pool C someone else will be knocked out.

CMU will be interesting. They are getting some good SoS medicine with Chicago and Wash U coming to town which will then be partially mitigated by finishing at home with CWRU.  If CMU can go 2-1 in the last 3 they may jump over a few teams.  If they win all 3 they might jump to #1 regionally.

[Falconer]

Ryan Harmanis knocks it out of the park two weeks in a row.  Last week's article on mental toughness, this week's article - specifically the section about playing time.  It is truly disheartening to see a team on the verge of achieving great things come undone because of the inability to dig deep when faced with The Grind games. And it is reprehensible that concerns about playing time become more important than team results.

I have commented on a few clubs that I have seen play where collections of individuals - and some of these collections contain incredibly talented players - took the field instead of a team. Teams win - collections of individuals lose. In the beginning of the year many teams struggle to incorporate new players, replace senior leadership.  Teams emerge when individuals buy-in to accept the roles in front of them - and those teams will win their share of games. But collections of individuals will always underachieve and ultimately lose.

Personally, since I enjoy tactics I found his pressing articles the best but well done and thank you for doing all these. You have a mind of a good young coach who should be coaching in college and teaching these kids the right way to play the game. I have no idea what your career is but to give back to the game what it has given you would be fantastic especially with such a bright young mind..

On a more pessimistic note I took the Substitution article to be a nice subtle jab at Messiah and all those Championships won by doing exactly what you were complaining about.

I'm baffled why you say this, Mr. Right. I just do not see Ryan's points being aimed at the particular way in which Messiah uses the liberal substitution rule.  Let me be specific about a few of them.  I'll quote Ryan's points verbatim and put replies under each.

(1) I'm a soccer purist; I prefer to see passes on the ground, building from the back, and goals from the run of play. I disdain strategies based on long throw-ins and free kicks, and I dislike kickball. I can't deny the effectiveness of those tactics, but they are becoming more and more widespread, and the substitution rules provide the foundation for that style of play.

Comment: I could have written Ryan's first two sentences myself, for his sentiments are precisely mine also.  The first sentence amounts to a perfect description of what the Falcons try do to every time they step on the field, while opponents usually build their strategy around trying not to let them do it (rather than trying to do the same thing themselves and create a beautiful game to watch).  I have literally never seen a Falcon team use the strategy described in the second sentence.   Indeed, under Brandt it was rare even to see a quick counterattack, rather than a slow buildup against defensive pressure.  McCarty is more willing to dump the occasional ball over an offside trap or use quick counters, but not that much more willing.  No one who watches the Falcons regularly would imagine that this paragraph is a subtle dig at Messiah.

(2) In a normal game, teams and players can't press non-stop. Forwards and midfielders would need to sprint for 90 minutes, and it's almost impossible to defend with complete intensity for that long. That's why many games start slow and "open up" later on, as players tire and space is easier to find, especially in the second half. Teams that can't possess the ball are in an even tougher position, because it takes more energy, both mental and physical, to defend. So teams value possession and pick opportune moments to press, allowing games to ebb and flow and find a rhythm. You see fascinating tactical battles in every game, as teams fight for possession, adjust to defend when they lose it, and then either counter-attack quickly or build methodically once they gain possession. In the second half, players find more space and teams often counter-attack back and forth, allowing the game to crescendo as it reaches the final stages.

Comment: Actually this describes Messiah very well, except that the Falcons use mass substitution in the first half to achieve the kind of game Ryan describes as "normal," particularly in this sentence: " You see fascinating tactical battles in every game, as teams fight for possession, adjust to defend when they lose it, and then either counter-attack quickly or build methodically once they gain possession."  The methodical build is of course the favored option in Grantham.  However, the Falcons usually are more effective playing a "normal" game in the second half, precisely b/c they clear the bench in the first half.  Since their second team can usually play the opponents' first team on even terms, the opponents are reluctant to follow suit with mass substitution.  So, the starters run out of gas early in the second half, which creates the opportunity for Messiah to play a "normal" game.  I don't think Ryan had that in mind here, but that's what Messiah usually does.  So, for them (at least), mass substitution leads to beautiful soccer, not to nonstop pressing.

(3) Rather than rhythm, the college game is chaos. Any team—even one that's outmatched or unable to maintain possession—can press non-stop. While players can't run for 90 minutes straight, they can run for 25, take a break, and then do it again. They can defend without worrying about fatigue. Instead of space opening up in the 60th or 75th minute to encourage attacks, teams just bring in a fresh wave of subs. College players run more in games than professionals for this very reason. They don't learn how to conserve energy, or how to use space, they just fly around the field. It can be exhilarating at times, don't get me wrong, but more often than not it results in a game that's painful to watch.

Comment: Again, no one who watches the Falcons regularly would associate this description with their style of play.  I don't think Ryan had Messiah in mind either.  Actually he might have Loras in mind here--and I am not taking a shot at Loras, which is one of the very best programs in D3.  I simply notice that they do tend to press non-stop, whereas the Falcons don't.  Messiah would much rather possess than pursue, and consequently they don't often score directly off turnovers.

Overall comment: The Falcons also substitute so liberally b/c they do want to give PT to a sizeable roster.  Most players will get at least 15-20 minutes in most games, although in some cases the starters will play all or most of the first half--that usually happens only in tight games against top opponents.  Why not?  Isn't college athletics supposed to be about participation?  Why keep on your roster players who realistically won't get any PT?  Messiah doesn't bring in a dozen new players every year (some teams have done that, but I won't point fingers at specific teams).  Once McCarty has the number he wants, other players who still want to come to Messiah are turned away--yes, that happens, and those players can be awfully good.   As I've said a few times, Messiah doesn't recruit like most other teams: players approach Messiah, rather than the other way around.  So, once that number is reached, there's no room for more.

That's why I'm puzzled by your inference, Mr. Right.  I don't want to get into a protracted argument about this, but I always learn much from your posts and I'll be sure to read any replies you care to make.

[PaulNewman]

And on cue CMU up 3-0 on Wash U while Chicago and CWRU still tied.

[PaulNewman]

Congrats to CWRU for really showing up and putting the first blemish on Chicago.  Watched the last 30 or so minutes and CWRU seemed to give great effort and were also trying to really play, too.

[blue_jays]

Congrats to CWRU for really showing up and putting the first blemish on Chicago.  Watched the last 30 or so minutes and CWRU seemed to give great effort and were also trying to really play, too.

To be fair, UChicago dominated the stats, hit the post 3 times and Case had to make 2 team saves. Now the Maroons just have to turn the page and bring their top form to CMU on Sunday.

[DagarmanSpartan]

Ya know, overall, this has been an up and down year for CWRU.  That said, it has been nice to see us beat then #2 Kenyon and tie #1 Chicago.