2016 Great Lakes Region

[PaulNewman]

Interesting fact about the OWU game on Sept 28: that will be OWU's first road game of the year and it will be on turf.

NCAC - add the fact that Denison's field is under repair for the entire year - being re-sodded.  Could be the drought - but the patchiness of the damage looks more like insects (old Scott's employee speaking now . . .)

"Feed your lawn...Feed it!"

I think playing on turf will be a factor Saturday for Kenyon @ TMC, and probably in TMC's favor.  That said, still a game where Kenyon should prevail IF they are as good as some of us think they are supposed to be (and they think they are supposed to be.)  Looking ahead, mid-week games at home can be tough in terms of really turning up and so the Centre game could be a real dogfight with the Lords vulnerable for an upset (more so IF they get by TMC, and less so if they lose to or draw with TMC).

[D3soccerwatcher]

Grove City moves to 6-1 with OT win over host Heidelberg. 

[PaulNewman]

Kenyon gets a solid road win at TMC, 1-0.  Video was atrocious...like watching blobs in slow motion who would freeze playing on a field on the moon in a heavy fog.  Seemed like Kenyon dominated possession probably without a lot of clean chances.  Definitely had shot advantage and apparently TMC didn't get a shot on goal.  Glassman get a red (couldn't tell if straight red or 2nd yellow) in 90th minute.  Couldn't see what happened but guessing he lashed out after getting hacked in the corner trying to run out the clock.  Everyone does that but some of the worst fouls seem to happen in those situations where the other team is frustrated and desperate to get possession.

Good win for undefeated Centre at DePauw, winning 3-2 in OT after DePauw rallied in regulation.  Sets up good game in Gambier on Weds.

[Domino1195]

Weekly rankings should see Kenyon, ONU, CM and Grove City remain in the top 4 - no shame in GC's loss at Oberlin. 

The next 5-7 are a toss up - but I think OWU, Transylvania, John Carroll and Thomas More will be in spots 5-8 - no particular order.  John Carroll may suffer a bit for their loss at PSU-Behrend - but JC's SOS is 30th right now and they have yet to play at home this season - they have Carnegie Mellon and Case at home this week - some welcome home party, eh?

After that you have Hanover, Capital, DePauw and Oberlin - again no particular order. Capital's SOS not very strong - got weaker with Denison's loss at Wilmington yesterday. Oberlin should land on the list at 8 or 9 with a nice win versus GC.

If there are teams "pulling away" from the rest - it would be the first three. But there aren't any blow-out games when these teams play one another - all tight, midfield battles, organized defenses - all waiting for the one opportunity each team may get in a 90 (or 120) minute contest.

ONU gets a bit of a breather over the next two weeks after a rigorous schedule to start the year.  Blessing and a curse - staying sharp against the softer part of their schedule can be challenging - but with all that upper class leadership I think they will not need the coach to "ride" them should the get sloppy.

John Carroll has a heck of a week with the two games mentioned.  TM plays three times this week - a backyard contest against U of Cincy - a game most likely about getting future recruits from the Cincy area; then Transylvania and Capital - both of these at home.
DePauw gets two away games at Rose and Oberlin - Rose dropping three straight could make them a dangerous side - and they have Chicago and Transylvania after DePauw - could be a make or break week for them.
Transy only has the one game at TM this week - couple big games the week following at Centre and Rose - but what a "potential" luxury to have this one game to focus upon for the week.
OWU with one game next Sat against a struggling Denison - you just never know which Denison team will show up on game day.
Hanover should pick up 2 wins at home against Berea and Georgetown.  Carnegie Mellon has an interesting week with three games - two away at John Carroll and Grove City represent the two strongest opponents they have faced all year.

We'll see how my parity assessment of the Great Lakes looks after this week.

[Ryan Harmanis]

I think Kenyon remains well above everyone else at the moment. The talent is unquestionably there and the only two Great Lakes teams that pushed Kenyon last year (DePauw and OWU) are still finding their feet. I'd probably have ONU, Carnegie Mellon, and OWU in the next group, in that order.

Grove City, for me, does not belong anywhere near the top of the Great Lakes until they beat someone of note. 6-1 is nice, but their schedule has been awful - outside of PSU-Behrend (not a exactly a heavyweight) the teams they've beaten have a combined record of 6-23-2. And Oberlin, while 5-1, got shelled by ONU (4-0) in their only other game of note. Grove City has a chance to make a statement this week with a game against Carnegie Mellon, but at the end of the day, it's most likely going to be AQ or bust for GC to make the tournament.

[Domino1195]

I think Kenyon remains well above everyone else at the moment. The talent is unquestionably there and the only two Great Lakes teams that pushed Kenyon last year (DePauw and OWU) are still finding their feet. I'd probably have ONU, Carnegie Mellon, and OWU in the next group, in that order.

Grove City, for me, does not belong anywhere near the top of the Great Lakes until they beat someone of note. 6-1 is nice, but their schedule has been awful - outside of PSU-Behrend (not a exactly a heavyweight) the teams they've beaten have a combined record of 6-23-2. And Oberlin, while 5-1, got shelled by ONU (4-0) in their only other game of note. Grove City has a chance to make a statement this week with a game against Carnegie Mellon, but at the end of the day, it's most likely going to be AQ or bust for GC to make the tournament.

Not many of the ranked Great Lakes teams have really played tough schedules to date - Thomas More always does - and that surely helped last year when the lost the PRAC tournament. OWU, John Carroll, Case have had decent challenges early on (Case perhaps too many!) - CM and Grove City's schedules are about the same; other than Thomas More - Kenyon's schedule is equal to CM and Grove City.

What's most perplexing is trying to make sense of comparative scores - and for me it is about the teams I've seen play.  A team Like Heidelberg - an very difficult schedule has them at 1-5 right now - but they haven't played poorly.  I saw parts of the Kenyon game - they were in that till the end; first half of the Thomas More game they had equal if not better possession. What they haven't been able to do is put together a full 90 minutes and avoid the one or two mistakes that cost you games against strong competition. 

And based on the way the teams have actually played - I have not seen anyone that has played well above anyone else.  Of the top 15 teams - I'd say they are all capable and have the potential to finish in the top 8.  As of today the best team I have seen play - game in, game out - is ONU.

[Ryan Harmanis]

Fair points, but the difference between Grove City and Kenyon/ONU/CMU/OWU is that those teams have done well so far this year and have a pedigree - all four made the tournament last year and they've consistently fielded NCAA-level teams. Grove City, on the other hand, finished third in a weak conference in 2015 and hasn't beaten anyone of note in years. That's not meant to be a put-down, and I have nothing against GC, but until they pick up a meaningful win I can't put them with that group, regardless of how good they've looked against bad competition.

The easy way for GC to change the perception is to schedule and beat good programs. John Carroll, who has been inching toward the top shelf in the region over the last few years, scheduled Brandeis, Wheaton (Ill.), CMU, and Case in the non-conference. Those type of games provide a chance to prove you belong.

[Domino1195]

Fair points, but the difference between Grove City and Kenyon/ONU/CMU/OWU is that those teams have done well so far this year and have a pedigree - all four made the tournament last year and they've consistently fielded NCAA-level teams. Grove City, on the other hand, finished third in a weak conference in 2015 and hasn't beaten anyone of note in years. That's not meant to be a put-down, and I have nothing against GC, but until they pick up a meaningful win I can't put them with that group, regardless of how good they've looked against bad competition.

The easy way for GC to change the perception is to schedule and beat good programs. John Carroll, who has been inching toward the top shelf in the region over the last few years, scheduled Brandeis, Wheaton (Ill.), CMU, and Case in the non-conference. Those type of games provide a chance to prove you belong.

Ryan - I'm troubled by the use of the word "pedigree."  We know this is a factor for coaches, voters and fans who may not get to see every team play and but add a "dash of history" to their opinion.  But does history factor into power ratings and so-called objective measures of a team? And if so -why?

I watched Carnegie last night through the second goal.  They are a good team - play similarly to many of the quality teams I've seen this year.  Very good center back - cleans up well; strong.  Midfield prevented Allegheny from connecting many passes and forced many turnovers - although Allegheny helped out a lot by making dozens of unforced turnovers last night (based on 60 minutes that I saw - Allegheny is in for a long season in the NCAC).

Through last night's game - Massey has CM and Grove City as follows:

Team         RecordRat   Pwr   Off   Def   HFA   SoS   SSF   EW   EL
Carnegie      6-0   25   37   35   56   0.39   196   61   6.06   4.94
Grove City   6-1   63   81   55   128   0.52   200   253   7.61   2.39

CM - 17-3 (GF, GA) (9 of the 17 goals in one game against Muskingum)
GC - 21-6

CM has played two teams with a .500 record; GC has played two teams with winning records
They have played one common opponent - Allegheny: GC winning 3-0 at Allegheny, CM 2-1 at home.

Based on what these teams have done on the field this year - I cannot understand why "objectively" there would be much difference in how they are rated.  Subjective variables have to be the difference.  A rhetorical "Why?" - unless someone really knows why!

Using Massey's match-up tool for Thursday head-to-head between these two teams:

                      CM   GC
Actual Score   0   0
Most Likely   2   1
Median           2   1
Mean       1.89   1.40
Win Prob        55%   32%

We shall see . . .

[Ryan Harmanis]

I do take pedigree into account. The college season is short and we're only a third of the way through, so we have limited information. When comparing teams, I use all information, including previous seasons, and give it relative weight. Teams change from year to year, so this season's results carry much more weight, but I have a baseline view that begins with recent seasons (last year being the most important) and expectations for this year. Kenyon, ONU, CMU, and OWU have regularly made the tournament and all made it last year, so I considered them NCAA-level (or potential) to start the year.

Once the season begins, I use results to adjust my view. So far, results have not changed my view of those teams much, as combined they have one loss (OWU) to a Top 10 team (Washington and Lee). Based on my expectation, results, and what I've seen from their play, at the moment I still think they're all four potential/probable NCAA teams. That could change if CMU loses to Grove City or struggles in UAA play, or if the other teams start dropping games, but based on current information that's how I view them.

Grove City has started very well. But they have not been an NCAA-level team, or even been in the discussion, in recent seasons. So I did not view them as an NCAA-level team to start 2016. My view of GC has improved with their results to date, but not enough to consider them NCAA-level right now. Sure, they've beaten also-rans from the NCAC and OAC, but those other teams do that every year. They fell short against Oberlin, another team that is not usually NCAA-level. And they haven't beaten an NCAA-level team yet to show me that they belong in that group.

Even if we limit it to this season, my Top 4 have better results than Grove City. Kenyon and CMU have perfect records, and ONU hammered Oberlin, who beat GC. OWU is the only team with a loss, but OWU's loss is better (even if Oberlin isn't a bad loss) and OWU has the best win of the entire group (over Calvin).

As for more "objective" measures, I'm not a huge fan of Massey, as I think comparative scores don't tell you much in soccer. I find comparative results somewhat helpful, but if Team A and Team B both beat Team C, I give no real weight to the scoreline. Massey is also limited because these five teams have all played very different schedules, making it hard to compare. Even then, Massey views these teams as I do, rating Kenyon 5th, ONU 20th, CMU 25th, OWU 27th, and Grove City 63rd.

To answer your question, then, I think history matters until we can replace it with better information. And if we're comparing these five teams, GC started the season below them, and while GC's fast start has them trending up, they have not shown they belong there just yet. That can all change as soon as this weekend, but Grove City only has two games against teams that will even make the regional rankings (CMU and Thomas More), so they need to take those opportunities. Alternatively, GC can win the conference AQ and make some noise in the tournament. But Thomas More didn't get much support as a top team in the region until they started beating the other top teams in the Great Lakes, and GC won't either.

Also, just for clarification, this applies to all up-and-coming teams, not just Grove City, and it applies in all college sports, not just DIII soccer. Look at D1 football. In 2014 Marshall started 11-0, but had a terrible schedule and barely cracked the Top 25 of the Playoff Rankings. In 2015 Houston started 10-0, but had a weak schedule and barely cracked the Top 20. Then both teams lost to non-Top 25 teams and plummeted. In 2016, however, Houston is already in the Top 5 in the polls and, if they win out, could make the playoff. Why? Because they beat Florida State in a bowl game last year, brought back key players, and recruited well, increasing respect and expectations. Then Houston proved they belong by beating #3 Oklahoma on opening weekend. I'm happy to bump Grove City to that top group, and I've provided more than enough bulletin-board material to motivate them, but they have to earn it against the big boys.

It's a good discussion, and this is just my personal view. Here's another way to think about it: if Grove City played any of these teams in the NCAA tournament, who would you expect to win?

[PaulNewman]

FWIW, CMU is the one "major" team in Great Lakes that I never seem to have a good feel for.  I agree that Grove City has work to do to "get in the conversation," but I also think they are going to beat CMU, so we'll see.  Probably a bigger game from GC than CMU and if they win that will certainly have an impact.  I'm not sure there is a way though, given importance of SoS highlighted so much last year, for GC to get a NCAA bid without winning their tourney.  Maybe if they run the table up to that point. 

Perhaps a good comparison is the CCC in New England which actually I would argue is a stronger conference overall than the PRAC.  Endicott had a stellar season last year and couldn't get a bid as Gordon won the tourney and there was no at-large.

[Ryan Harmanis]

I agree on CMU, because they haven't always played the other top teams in the region, or at least not more than one of them. Kenyon beat them with relative ease the last two years but no matchup this year, and I doubt they'll schedule OWU anytime soon considering lopsided games a few years ago. Still, the UAA is tough enough that we'll get a feel for CMU's strength compared to other potential NCAA teams by the end of the year.

As for Grove City's at-large chances, I just don't see how they can do it. Even if they run the table, they have a maximum of two regional ranked wins - if CMU keeps it up and if Thomas More improves before conference play. Those early home games against Pitt-Greensburg (0-6) and Juniata (1-6) are going to destroy their SoS, and they still have Baldwin Wallace (4-13-3 last year) and St. Vincent (2-15-2), Waynesburg (2-15-1), Bethany (5-12-2), and Thiel (3-14-1) in conference play. GC's SoS was .505 in the final regional rankings in 2015, and their schedule this year is even worse. I can't picture a team with an SoS below 0.500 and two losses getting an at-large bid.

For comparison, in 2015 Thomas More scheduled several difficult out-of-conference games but only managed a 0.525 SoS, and they went 16-2-1 and 1-1-1 against ranked opponents. I had them on the outside of the bubble but they barely squeaked in. GC's best-case scenario is similar, with maybe one more ranked win but an SoS below 0.500.

[Domino1195]

Good discussion all. Rankings as a method of establishing readiness or fitness to make the tournament field. Rankings as a measure of how teams are actually playing right now - this year, with current players. If there were two sets of rankings - I wonder how they would differ.

Within this discussion we have an actual event in two days between CM and GC. They play virtually the same way - from backs to checking middies and then to the wings. On paper - on the field - should be a tie.

[Domino1195]

Week 2:

1   Kenyon College
2   Ohio Northern University
3   Carnegie Mellon University
4   Ohio Wesleyan University
5   Oberlin College
6   Grove City College
7   Thomas More College
8   Capital University
9   Penn State-Behrend
10   DePauw University

Also receiving votes: Transylvania University (12), Hanover College (9), Rose-Hulman Institute of Technology (2)

No love for John Carroll - not even an RV???  Hanover has played one home game all year. Thomas More's score for the Spalding game was 5-0 W - not 3-2 loss!

[D3soccerwatcher]

Grove City moves to 7-1 with a 5-1 win over Point Park Univ (NAIA) who came into the match at 3-2-1. The real test for Grove City will be this Friday night vs (#17) CMU who currently stands at 6-0.

[Domino1195]

Case 2-0 over John Carroll. Technical difficulties with video only provided second half coverage - Case up 1-0 at half. Even without a lead Case plays a 4-4-2, modest pressure by the 2 up top but smothering defense by the back two lines. They let JC get within 10 yards of midfield before stepping up to challenge - JC sending one hopeless long ball after another to the back 4.

Both teams distribute the ball from the keeper to the feet of their backs - giving it to the backs a yard or so outside their own area. JC applied more pressure up top than Case - but the Case backs didn't cough it up - if they didn't have a short option they just sent it down either wing. JC defense turned the ball over on the touch line and allowed the Case player plenty of room to take a couple dribbles with the ball before sending an uncontested left footed shot from just outside the 18 into the far post upper 90 - beautiful goal - but someone needed to step up to challenge that shot!

JC really needed to be more patient - working the ball through the midfield instead of constantly sending the ball over them. They have several good attacking players but many times these players were left to go 1v1. When they did look to combine they had too many heavy passes that either went astray or rolled across the byline.  Almost all their corners were served dangerously between the top of the 6 and the PK spot - best they could do was get a handball goal - and a YC for that effort.

Case seems to be finding their way since the season began.