2016 Great Lakes Region

[MidwestGrinder]

CWRU 1, Kenyon 0 OT

Memories of DePauw last year.  CWRU played an excellent game.  GK was very good although Lords blew a number of in-close chances.  Might have been CWRU's only shot on goal.

Kenyon presses so much and gets so many numbers up that when they go a couple of minutes on attack and/or up for set pieces they are really open on the counter.

Kenyon very unlucky to lose this one. Case played well enough to keep themselves in it. Their goalkeeper was far and away the MVP of the match, he was saving everything Kenyon was throwing at him. Kenyon outshoots Case 19-5 with SOG being 10-1 (so yes you're right the goal was the only SOG Case had). Also Case Keeper had 10 saves to Kenyon Keepers 0 (yes zero). I agree that Kenyon can over press at times and be caught out on the counterattack. Seems teams strategy against them right now is to play a little rope a dope defense against them and hit them on the counter. Big game at DePauw this weekend to get back on track for Kenyon.

[PaulNewman]

Kenyon was obviously dominant, but I'm not sure I think they were unlucky.  After 20 minutes I could see that CWRU could sneak one on a counter or corner or deep throw.  They got a bunch of corners.  They never got a SOG but they were very close more than a handful of times from getting a clean opening deep inside the box.  Kind of knew when Kenyon couldn't force one in the net in regulation that OT would probably end sort of like it did.  Obviously this is a great win for CWRU and gives them an almost sure-thing win versus a high regionally ranked team in November.  May also be good for Kenyon to take a loss now and really focus.  DePauw will not be easy.

[Domino1195]

CWRU 1, Kenyon 0 OT

Memories of DePauw last year.  CWRU played an excellent game.  GK was very good although Lords blew a number of in-close chances.  Might have been CWRU's only shot on goal.

Kenyon presses so much and gets so many numbers up that when they go a couple of minutes on attack and/or up for set pieces they are really open on the counter.

It was their only shot on goal. As I mentioned early Kenyon is always going to get the best game from their opponents. They were so effective with high pressure, forcing mistakes from the midfielders - but only had 2 or three really good looks at goal. The Glassman shot off the post . . .

I can't agree that any team in the Great Lakes is that far ahead of the others. Watching ONU-OWU again, watched ONU vs Wittenberg; watched Denison vs OWU; Denison vs Capital, Capital vs Thomas More, John Carroll vs Case; John Carroll vs CMU two days after watching CMU and Grove City. Kenyon at Otterbein, Kenyon vs Case. CMU vs Allegheny, Oberlin vs BW. I see strengths and weaknesses in all - when these top teams play the games  are tight - no one blowing out anyone else. Competent defenses and opportunistic offenses.

I expect that Kenyon and ONU will finish 1 and 2 in the Great Lakes region. After that - it's a 10 way tie. 

[Midwest Soccer]

Agreed that Kenyon and ONU are the top 2 teams in the region.

Here's a question:

What if ONU runs table in regular season, finishes 0 losses on the year, and then gets upset in the OAC tourny? Do they have a strong enough resume to get them in 100%? I know they are a top team this year if not the top team in the region, but unless Capital gets ranked in the region (and assuming they beat Capital which is anything but a sure thing), their only hope for a win vs a ranked team is a CWRU team who is 4-4-1 currently which definitely can happen with the teams they still have left to play (they have the toughest SOS in the region by a mile). Just for arguments' sake, let's say they finish the year being upset in OAC tourny needing an at large to get in. With a 0-0-1 record vs regionally ranked teams (if OWU is ranked which isn't a given either) and an SOS of what I'm assuming will be absolutely awful given the likes of their non-conference schedule, are they 100% a lock? The same question could apply to Calvin as well and I believe we had similar conversations about them last year because I don't believe they had a regionally ranked win on the year (not 100% sure on that though) but they took the AQ so it didn't matter.

I heard rumors that the MIAA is getting away from their home and home series which is great for those teams to get out and play other regional teams to help with their chances of getting more than 1 team in the tournament.

[DagarmanSpartan]

Really great win for a team that had struggled early on.

[Domino1195]

Agreed that Kenyon and ONU are the top 2 teams in the region.

Here's a question:

What if ONU runs table in regular season, finishes 0 losses on the year, and then gets upset in the OAC tourny? Do they have a strong enough resume to get them in 100%? I know they are a top team this year if not the top team in the region, but unless Capital gets ranked in the region (and assuming they beat Capital which is anything but a sure thing), their only hope for a win vs a ranked team is a CWRU team who is 4-4-1 currently which definitely can happen with the teams they still have left to play (they have the toughest SOS in the region by a mile). Just for arguments' sake, let's say they finish the year being upset in OAC tourny needing an at large to get in. With a 0-0-1 record vs regionally ranked teams (if OWU is ranked which isn't a given either) and an SOS of what I'm assuming will be absolutely awful given the likes of their non-conference schedule, are they 100% a lock? The same question could apply to Calvin as well and I believe we had similar conversations about them last year because I don't believe they had a regionally ranked win on the year (not 100% sure on that though) but they took the AQ so it didn't matter.

I heard rumors that the MIAA is getting away from their home and home series which is great for those teams to get out and play other regional teams to help with their chances of getting more than 1 team in the tournament.

We saw what happened to John Carroll two years ago - a 17-4 record - decent SOS.

Implicit in my posts is a frustration with the treatment of "historically" strong teams and conferences versus current performance.  Playing the comparative scores game is good to create point of analysis - "mostly" worthless for predicting future outcomes.  But I have seen Denison 6? times now? I have described them as inconsistent.  I said Heidelberg might be the best team with a losing record - look at the results of these teams and their opponents.  And I watched them simultaneously last night with with Case-Kenyon on the other screen. Denison hits the post in regulation - Heidelberg gets the OT winner . . .

Based on performance year-to-date: is the NCAC that much better than the OAC? Kenyon has played three OAC teams - beating Otterbein 2-0 (a game in which they had 11 versus 10 men for nearly 70 minutes - scoring once with the man advantage), beating Heidelberg 1-0 - scoring off a set piece header, in a game that was very even, and then the blow-out of Muskingum. OWU beats Otterbein 2-0 with two second half goals, 0-0 at home against ONU and today is at Capital. Top 25 Oberlin is 3-1 versus the OAC with Otterbein to play this evening - conceding 8 goals to OAC teams (7 in two matches against ONU and BW).

As far as regional rankings and tournament selection time - we shall see.  But I think OAC teams understand the history - and the coach and players of every team that I know - either through kids on the team or the coaches - preach the same thing: we have to win the conference, we have to win the post season tournament - we can't afford a single mistake.  In some ways that philosophy makes them mentally stronger - game in and game out.

[PaulNewman]

With all this talk of stats being relevant or irrelevant, I took a look at CWRU's history this season.

Loss away at TMC (when TMC was whole) 1-0 with edge in stats to TMC (12 to 4 shots, 9 to 4 corners)

Loss at home to DePauw 2-1 (edge to CWRU with 15 to 13 shots and 13 to 7 corners)

Tie at Hiram!  (stats even!)

Loss at Ohio Northern (stats pretty even with 18 to 16 shots for CWRU and ONU with 9 to 2 corners)

Win over JCU 2-0 (stats pretty even with JCU 9 to 4 in corners)

Loss at Lycoming 1-0 (Lycoming huge edge 19 to 2 shots and 5 to 2 corners)

Win home vs Kenyon (stats 19 to 5 shots for Kenyon and CWRU with 7 to 6 edge corners...mostly from scrambling defense Kenyon had to play on CWRU counters after being stretched and CWRU had open field on broken plays)

Unable to draw any significant conclusions from above.

We'll see if CWRU can muster up 3-4 wins in the UAA or something like 3-3-1 or 3-2-2.  Good break starting out with NYU.

[Domino1195]

Just about an inch of rain in central Ohio with more to come.  Games on grass - at Oberlin and Wooster - looking iffy . . .

[Ryan Harmanis]

I don't think there's any question that the NCAC has been stronger than the OAC for awhile. ONU has done well in the tournament, but I can't recall the last time a non-ONU team won an NCAA game. In the last five years alone, Kenyon, OWU, DePauw, and Oberlin have all won games, and the first three have all made at least the Sweet 16.

This year isn't as clear cut because we haven't seen the top teams in each conference play much. If we take the top four in the NCAC as Kenyon, OWU, DePauw, and Oberlin, and the OAC's best as ONU, Capital, John Carroll, and Otterbein, then the NCAC leads 2-1-1 with tonight's OWU-Capital and Oberlin-Otterbein game spending. But DePauw and John Carroll play no games against the other conference's top four, and Kenyon only played Otterbein. If OWU and Oberlin both win tonight, we can probably put this to bed. Any other results and it's still up in the air a bit.

[Ryan Harmanis]

As for at-large bids, the criteria are there for all to see and using the criteria most of the at-large bids are easy to predict - they're just a function of those statistics. I haven't seen much evidence that bids are based on "historical" success, especially within the Great Lakes region. I agree that 2014 John Carroll would have made the tournament most years, and I believe we had them on the right side of the bubble, but they were unlucky because the OAC was terrible that year - the second-best team was Heidelberg at 13-7-1 - and so they had few ranked wins and a weak SOS.

Edit: Went back to look and 2014 JC's SOS was 34th out of the 39 teams that were regionally ranked.

The biggest obstacle, frankly, is the comparison to other regions. The committee has not traditionally given the Great Lakes a ton of respect, and with fewer ranked teams nearby, teams don't have as many chances to pick up those coveted ranked wins. (Being in the Midwest, it's hard to get games against top teams from outside the region). It's not so much one GL team losing out to another as it is bubble GL teams failing to edge teams from New England or the Mid-Atlantic.

[Domino1195]

Ryan - are you coming tonight? I'm at the Rusty Bucket in Bexley - will be till 6:30 -  stop in and I'll buy you one!

[DonkeyTouch]

Agreed that Kenyon and ONU are the top 2 teams in the region.

Here's a question:

What if ONU runs table in regular season, finishes 0 losses on the year, and then gets upset in the OAC tourny? Do they have a strong enough resume to get them in 100%? I know they are a top team this year if not the top team in the region, but unless Capital gets ranked in the region (and assuming they beat Capital which is anything but a sure thing), their only hope for a win vs a ranked team is a CWRU team who is 4-4-1 currently which definitely can happen with the teams they still have left to play (they have the toughest SOS in the region by a mile). Just for arguments' sake, let's say they finish the year being upset in OAC tourny needing an at large to get in. With a 0-0-1 record vs regionally ranked teams (if OWU is ranked which isn't a given either) and an SOS of what I'm assuming will be absolutely awful given the likes of their non-conference schedule, are they 100% a lock? The same question could apply to Calvin as well and I believe we had similar conversations about them last year because I don't believe they had a regionally ranked win on the year (not 100% sure on that though) but they took the AQ so it didn't matter.

I heard rumors that the MIAA is getting away from their home and home series which is great for those teams to get out and play other regional teams to help with their chances of getting more than 1 team in the tournament.

Long time lurker, first time poster....

The question posed - would a 19-1-1 ONU side be a 100% lock to get in if they lost in the OAC tournament after running the table?

Simply put... Yes, unquestionable, 100%, guaranteed, death and taxes, lock.

Position in the regional rankings in the weeks leading up to the final ranking matters - A LOT.  Dropping an OAC semi final game to an opponent who may have a weak SOS (depending who they could lose to.... as you mention, Cap is looking like they might not be such a "bad" loss at the end of the year) won't move the needle all that far in the regional rankings for that "final" all important ranking.  If they come into that last weekly ranking having been 1 or 2 in the region for the first 3... they aren't dropping out of the top 4 spots based on that one loss. (remember, a top NCAC team will be getting handed a loss that week too!)  Assuming then that at least one team "ahead" of them in the regional rankings as of the final ranking gets an AQ (the NCAC winner), then they will absolutely, 100% without a doubt be one of the first at large teams to be handed a berth given the scenario you describe.

Also, and just for fun re: the weak SoS and lack of WoR, you point to CWRU staying hot as the only hope of a quality win, apart from Cap getting in the picture.  We will see tonight, but I think Cap is legit and can be part of that mix... but you left another possibility out.... Oberlin is 6-1 with wins over upstart GC and DePauw... the Polar Bears smacked them around 4-0 for their lone loss.  Is it out of the question given the NCAC grinder that Oberlin is regionally ranked when it matters?

[Ryan Harmanis]

Ryan - are you coming tonight? I'm at the Rusty Bucket in Bexley - will be till 6:30 -  stop in and I'll buy you one!

Domino - I'll be there but might not be early. Have to drop off my lady friend at the airport for work so I'll be cutting it close to gametime.

[PaulNewman]

Donkey, first of all, welcome.

The regional rankings are something that will befuddle me no matter how many times Flying and Weasel, RH and others explain it. 

Let's just consider one scenario that then could be multiplied several times over in terms of how random the whole deal can feel.

CWRU, after beating Kenyon, in a game that very, very easily could have and some would argue should have gone the other way, now stands a good chance (if they can win a few UAA games) of being regionally ranked at the end.  Presuming that Kenyon doesn't completely collapse CWRU will then have a win over a regionally ranked team.  Now, IF Kenyon had won, that would still hurt Kenyon at least in theory, possibly, because saddling CWRU with another loss might well have prevented the possibility of CWRU getting regionally ranked by the end of the season or at least would have made that far more difficult (as CWRU would be standing at 3-5-1).  So, the loss hurts Kenyon but they also wouldn't have necessarily gained much with a win because the win could knock a team out of counting as a ranked opponent at the end of the day. I'm sure there are a ton of examples like this where the upset gives a team a better chance of being ranked (and "counting") and a loss just further ensures that that team won't get ranked at the end.  As an aside, this is yet another argument for the "once ranked always ranked" method.

Back to CWRU, they do get NYU at home next but then they have a brutal 5 game stretch of away games -- Oberlin, Brandeis, Emory, Rochester and North Park.  They then get possibly the best two UAA teams -- Chicago and Wash U -- at home but that doesn't really help if you would be losing one or both of those games anyway.  And then they conclude on the road at CMU.  Quite a challenge. 

Kenyon@ DePauw this weekend got more compelling.  DePauw handed Kenyon its only regular season loss last year, and with DPU losing already to Oberlin the Tigers can ill afford to lose another this early with OWU, rival Wabash and Denison down the road.  Kenyon can't afford to lose two in a row, as they have Oberlin and Denison on the road back to back soon.  A fired up and confident Oberlin team away could be tough and Denison is always tricky for the Lords. 

[Ryan Harmanis]

Capital 1 OWU 0.

Big win for Cap, gives their nice run of wins legitimacy. Not much either way in the first half. Each team had one big chance, and Capital converted theirs. OWU failed to clear a cross, fell to a Cap player whose shot trickled past the GK. OWU's chance saw a shot on goal beat the GK but rattle the crossbar. OWU edged the second half and created 4-5 great opportunities but couldn't finish. Missed a sitter, caught Cap napping on a free kick but the GK saved from 10 yards, and missed one open net with the GK caught out. Cap played some nice stuff through the middle and had one great chance but OWU's keeper made a nice save. The last 5-10 were a comedy of errors from both sides. Capital couldn't keep the ball and sat way too deep, inviting tons of pressure, but OWU was trying to hit the million dollar ball repeatedly and kept turning it over.

Pretty even game, on the whole, played almost entirely in the midfield. The field had an impact, as the rain made it fast and very difficult to play passes into space. No idea how teams played on grass, because there was standing water on various areas of Cap's turf. Capital has some athletes and can play some good stuff through the middle. Not much creativity in the final third tonight, but field conditions made it difficult for them to show a whole lot. OWU's youth is playing like it. Lapses in concentration and giving up soft goals has been a recurring problem, but you can overcome a bad goal here or there if you're scoring. They aren't right now.