2016 Great Lakes Region

[PaulNewman]

Going OT.  Kenyon had chance to put them away during a 12-15 minute stretch but ended up giving away a PK.  Couldn't see what happened.

Oberlin has momentum and more even 2nd half.  Oberlin very resilient and determined.

[Domino1195]

Going OT.  Kenyon had chance to put them away during a 12-15 minute stretch but ended up giving away a PK.  Couldn't see what happened.

Oberlin has momentum and more even 2nd half.  Oberlin very resilient and determined.

Extremely unfortunate hand ball - Kenyon player's hand was above his head on that long cross.  No Oberlin player near him - ball would have gone out for a goal kick otherwise.

Now - that officiating with 2 seconds to go IS interesting!

[PaulNewman]

Kenyon finally catches a break.  Blake New is gonna have nightmares.

Oberlin probably could have won the NCAC with the draw even with a loss to OWU. 

Kenyon outshot Oberlin 33 to 10 and 19 to 4 on goal.  That said, Kenyon rarely got any real quality chances.  Supersub striker didn't play and Amolo didn't play in OT at all.

Kenyon should have put the game away earlier and by the end Oberlin probably deserved a draw.  Really impressed with the toughness of Oberlin.

[Domino1195]

Going OT.  Kenyon had chance to put them away during a 12-15 minute stretch but ended up giving away a PK.  Couldn't see what happened.

Oberlin has momentum and more even 2nd half.  Oberlin very resilient and determined.

Extremely unfortunate hand ball - Kenyon player's hand was above his head on that long cross.  No Oberlin player near him - ball would have gone out for a goal kick otherwise.

Now - that officiating with 2 seconds to go IS interesting!

"As the game-clock ticked down towards 00:00, the Lords launched one more ball into the Oberlin defensive third. With three-seconds on the clock, the Lords were gifted a corner kick, but received an even greater gift as the head official stopped play to remove a second ball on the field and placed eight seconds back on the clock." - from Oberlin's recap.  Not sure about the "gifted" corner - although the Kenyon player who attempted to keep the ball in play appeared to touch it before it exited the field of play - I'm guessing it was judged to be out before he touched it. But adding back 8 seconds - there were two on the stadium clock - is the head scratcher.

Saturday's ONU-Capital game was poorly officiated - I give the CR about a 5; yesterday's Cap-Muskingum game was a -1. I never thought I'd miss high school officials as much as I did yesterday.  Time to recertify . . . AR2 couldn't correct call OS sitting down and watching film; the CR was quoted after the game: "What's was all the fuss about the My Lai Massacre - I didn't see much wrong there?"

Please don't let this be a sign of things to come . . .

[PaulNewman]

Kenyon escapes from Denison again.  Thank goodness for Oliver Wynn who has saved Kenyon two games in a row and one of the few Lords who consistently has shown up and played well.  Always hard to know watching on video, but game was chippy if not dirty.  Denison came out very physical and had Kenyon on the back foot.  Then soph Carmona shows frosh-level immaturity getting tossed around 20 minute mark so Lords play about 70 minutes down a man.  Actually looked better with 10 to  be honest.  Some decisions continue to confound.  One of the best mids who can actually make a play and put the ball where he wants it to go sits early.  A couple of mids appear to accomplish little game after game.  Anderson would be more effective.  Wynn and the two CBs, Myers and Lowry, carrying this team.  Also could not understand trying to kill time in the corner on corners with 4 minutes left.  If Denison had scored OT would have been rough. A VERY important win especially given the predicament of being down a man, but this is very far from a top 5 team and probably not top 15 either.  Still time to get and look better but not a lot of time.

[midwest]

Watching the Kenyon-Denison game in person, and just being a soccer parent, not a player, I'd agree it was a physical game, a lot of emotion on the field (and in the stands).  Two very different halves, Kenyon had a red in the first half, Denison had one late in the second half.  Quite a number of yellows all around, it seemed. 

[Domino1195]

Several teams took care of business this week - OWU, DePauw, Kenyon, Wabash, PSU-Behrand and Geneva all winning 2 games.  Hanover loses a heart-breaker with 2 minutes left at Transy - had the better of play for most of the game.  ONU concedes a goal off a set piece - Donkey Touch warned us about that weakness - but no shame in a draw to a resurgent John Carroll.  JCU reminds me of Capital last year - very tough preseason followed by a strong conference performance. Capital coming off an emotional week as a friend of some teammates passed away.  Conceded three goals at Muskingum and could not score against Mt Union.  Mt Union should literally have never gotten off the bus -just park it on the field.  Played the exact same game as they did against ONU - I suppose if getting a point is their objective - yay for that.  Never really attempted to attack the entire game.

PSU-Behrand finishes the season with games against Medaille and LaRoche - the top three teams in that conference. Winning those and taking care of the conference tournament will seal the bid for them.

Kenyon and Wabash should get two more wins each this week - never count chickens . . . but they should barring a Mt Union game plan by their opponents.  OWU and DePauw on Wednesday is a juicy match-up; OWU then has Oberlin at home on Saturday.

Thomas More has two statement games against Grove City and Geneva this weekend - the GCC game at home, Geneva away.  TM enjoys a physical contest and I imagine the Geneva game will be a foulfest with many cards as was the game this weekend at Westminster.

CMU gets a break from UAA play this week with just one non-conference game home against LaRoche - and then 9 Days off!!!

The draws for Capital and ONU this week seemed to be more harmful than the draw against one another - Cap dropping over 20 places on Massey - but with many teams dropping points this week I think they keep their regional places:

ONU, Kenyon, Capital, OWU, PSU-B - the next 5 in no order: CMU, DePauw, Wabash, Geneva and Hanover - although JCU might jump into the 10 spot.

[Domino1195]

Totally missed the boat on Oberlin - an oversight on my part.  But to remain at #2 over Kenyon is nuts.  OWU has a monster week that if they go 2-0 they are top 4.  The excessive love for the UAA keeps CMU in the top 5 after going 0-1-1 this week.  DePauw and Wabash do not get into the top 10 for at least one more week - Wabash for likely to make it next week - not surprised that JCU made it.

For tomorrow's rankings - SOS spells SOS for Capital - 6th to 8th at best.  Kenyon "should" be #1, closely followed by ONU. Oberlin's schedule gets them 3rd - at least for this week, with CMU and OWU 4 and 5. Cap 6, DePauw/Wabash/Hanover fighting for 7-8.

[PaulNewman]

And Oberlin gets its revenge!

Kenyon comes in at #6 after scheduling most games away still suffers with SoS because almost every team they've played has underperformed record-wise, including CWRU and DPU that beat them.  All that effort and only .528.  That said, Hanover is above them with only marginally higher SoS, as well as DePauw with only marginally higher SoS. 

Can't argue with ONU at #1 and wouldn't even argue with Oberlin at #2 given .561 SoS, but also behind OWU (.556 or close to that with almost all home games and not really a daunting schedule but benefitting from Capital record, Calvin, Hanover), and then DePauw and Hanover.

And Capital doesn't get ranked at all with low SoS.

[PaulNewman]

Kenyon's SoS actually will dip this week more with home conference games with Hiram and Allegheny, and the next week a wash or more slippage with OWU at home and OWU's less than perfect record, and then a modest bump away at Wabash.  Any home games in the NCAC tourney won't help so no reason to think right now that Kenyon's SoS will be any higher than last year even with a serious flip of the schedule to cover for SoS.  Heidelberg underperformed, Thomas More seriously underperformed, CWRU is stuck on 4 wins with only rough games remaining, DePauw has average record for them so far, Denison not winning, Catholic and Frostburg with bad records, and on and on.  Only bump in entire schedule is Oberlin away.  Kenyon may have to win out or get to conference final at least.  What might help is that only really stellar SoS in the region belongs to CWRU and they won't be in the way.

[Domino1195]

And Oberlin gets its revenge!

Kenyon comes in at #6 after scheduling most games away still suffers with SoS because almost every team they've played has underperformed record-wise, including CWRU and DPU that beat them.  All that effort and only .528.  That said, Hanover is above them with only marginally higher SoS, as well as DePauw with only marginally higher SoS. 

Can't argue with ONU at #1 and wouldn't even argue with Oberlin at #2 given .561 SoS, but also behind OWU (.556 or close to that with almost all home games and not really a daunting schedule but benefitting from Capital record, Calvin, Hanover), and then DePauw and Hanover.

And Capital doesn't get ranked at all with low SoS.

I roughly calculate Capital around 11th. I was surprised SOS was that high at .500!  They can only take care of what's left in front of them and hope some of the underperformers get their act together and win a game or two.

Wabash, ONU and Kenyon get through the week with 2-0 records, CMU with the one game against LaRoche, Hanover with 2-0 attainable.  Oberlin, DePauw and OWU have great matches against one another. Capital plays two teams with winning records for once - let's see what they do . . .

[DonkeyTouch]

And Great Lakes fans were upset in 14 when JCU was left on the sidelines...

We could legitimately see a 2 loss CAP team, with those losses coming to Calvin and let's say ONU in the OAC tournament - with no dance card.  This week's games, both away, could help a little... but Marietta has another couple losses in them and I would not so boldly predict will end up a .500 team. JCU won't be an easy out... and beating them isn't much of a prize given the tanked non conference schedule.  Home wins over Heidelberg and BW down the stretch don't impress the algorithm either.

Yeah, the NCAC teams will kick the hell out of each others' records the next couple weeks, but CAP would still be looking up at at least 2-3 NCAC schools, Hanover, Case, etc...  Ouch.

Honestly, I can't really blame Yost for a cupcake schedule either.  When you are willing to put OWU, TMore, Denison, Hope and Calvin on your out of conference slate - historically you certainly wouldn't expect to be quite so brutally punished for weak SoS. 

Look at ONU's non-conference games, and tell me, coming into the season, which staff were "braver" schedule makers.

Personally, I'll be pulling for the Crusaders to win the OAC tourney and we can see two OAC schools get in for once.

[Domino1195]

And Great Lakes fans were upset in 14 when JCU was left on the sidelines...

We could legitimately see a 2 loss CAP team, with those losses coming to Calvin and let's say ONU in the OAC tournament - with no dance card.  This week's games, both away, could help a little... but Marietta has another couple losses in them and I would not so boldly predict will end up a .500 team. JCU won't be an easy out... and beating them isn't much of a prize given the tanked non conference schedule.  Home wins over Heidelberg and BW down the stretch don't impress the algorithm either.

Yeah, the NCAC teams will kick the hell out of each others' records the next couple weeks, but CAP would still be looking up at at least 2-3 NCAC schools, Hanover, Case, etc...  Ouch.

Honestly, I can't really blame Yost for a cupcake schedule either.  When you are willing to put OWU, TMore, Denison, Hope and Calvin on your out of conference slate - historically you certainly wouldn't expect to be quite so brutally punished for weak SoS. 

Look at ONU's non-conference games, and tell me, coming into the season, which staff were "braver" schedule makers.

Personally, I'll be pulling for the Crusaders to win the OAC tourney and we can see two OAC schools get in for once.

Cupcake . . .  ONU's  preseason wins - 3 teams (DIII) with a winning record, Capital - 3 teams with a winning record. ONU playing two more preseason games. As far as what the "potential" preseason scheduled appeared to be - did Capital really schedule "cupcakes?" Undefeated on the road - no goals conceded (forgot the debacle at Muskingum last week - my bad). Not easy to do. But we understand SOS -  Kenyon had to deal with this issue last year.

OWU losing tonight does not help - but everyone in the running must win the next game in front of them - not a thing anyone can do about SOS now.

[DonkeyTouch]

And Great Lakes fans were upset in 14 when JCU was left on the sidelines...

We could legitimately see a 2 loss CAP team, with those losses coming to Calvin and let's say ONU in the OAC tournament - with no dance card.  This week's games, both away, could help a little... but Marietta has another couple losses in them and I would not so boldly predict will end up a .500 team. JCU won't be an easy out... and beating them isn't much of a prize given the tanked non conference schedule.  Home wins over Heidelberg and BW down the stretch don't impress the algorithm either.

Yeah, the NCAC teams will kick the hell out of each others' records the next couple weeks, but CAP would still be looking up at at least 2-3 NCAC schools, Hanover, Case, etc...  Ouch.

Honestly, I can't really blame Yost for a cupcake schedule either.  When you are willing to put OWU, TMore, Denison, Hope and Calvin on your out of conference slate - historically you certainly wouldn't expect to be quite so brutally punished for weak SoS. 

Look at ONU's non-conference games, and tell me, coming into the season, which staff were "braver" schedule makers.

Personally, I'll be pulling for the Crusaders to win the OAC tourney and we can see two OAC schools get in for once.

Cupcake . . .  ONU's  preseason wins - 3 teams (DIII) with a winning record, Capital - 3 teams with a winning record. ONU playing two more preseason games. As far as what the "potential" preseason scheduled appeared to be - did Capital really schedule "cupcakes?" Undefeated on the road - no goals conceded (forgot the debacle at Muskingum last week - my bad). Not easy to do. But we understand SOS -  Kenyon had to deal with this issue last year.

OWU losing tonight does not help - but everyone in the running must win the next game in front of them - not a thing anyone can do about SOS now.

Domino - I think we actually agree on this, but perhaps my paragraph was poorly worded. Cupcake is certainly a bit of a buzz word and probably disrespectful to the historically sub .500 teams I was referring to.

However, I was actually trying to praise Capital for scheduling an out of conference slate, that I feel, in "most" years - would have given them an opportunity for a pretty admirable SoS, or at least an above average one in the Great Lakes region... instead of what they are currently suffering from.  In other words, NO, Yost didn't schedule cupcakes - and good for him.

I was trying to compare that "bravery" in schedule making against what I felt was a much "softer" EXPECTED schedule for ONU.  But, when I wrote that post, I hadn't really dug into that feeling, I was just looking at those two programs' 2016 non-conference schedules, relatively speaking, and expressing what I thought from a quick overview.

So I actually dug into it a little.

Coaching staff cannot control SoS in the moment.  I obviously agree with that.  There is no accounting for under-performance of a typically solid program that, in most years, should you A) have the stones to schedule them, and B) beat them...would qualify as a quality win.  Same thing with programs that usually struggle having a resurgent season.  Obviously at the DIII level geography and budgets play an enormous role in schedule making as well - another uncontrollable factor.  Additionally, the best OAC schools (and the best HCAC schools, and TMore, and Behrend) also cannot control the fact that the bottom half of their own conference, historically, don't win many games.  Still have to play them. 

What's left that you can control?  Setting a non conference schedule where you can reasonably expect to play teams that will boost your SoS if you are good enough to get wins.

Here's a comparison of PAST RESULTS of the non conference opponents of two Great Lakes Region teams that have had a pretty strong season thus far:

Team A, 2016 opponents results over prior 4 seasons:
Combined record: 378-255-65 = .588 W%
Number NCAA Appearances: 12
Number of teams with 0 winning seasons ("cupcakes"): 2
Number of "perennial NCAA tournament programs": 3
Number of years opponents had a combined W% over .500: All 4
Number of times opponents won 5 games or less in any individual season: 8

Team B, 2016 opponents results over prior 4 seasons:
Combined record: 311-395-70 = .445 W% (not a typo)
Number NCAA Appearances: 5
Number of teams with 0 winning seasons ("cupcakes"): 4 (almost 5)
Number of "perennial NCAA tournament programs": 1
Number of years opponents had a combined W% over .500: 0
Number of times opponents won 5 games or less in any individual season: 16

When the coaching staff for team A makes that schedule, they have a reasonable expectation of a non conference boost to SoS.  Not so for team B.

Can you guess who is who yet?

[PaulNewman]

Apologies to Oberlin.  Coach New is not on the GL cmte this year. CWRU coach is the chair (strong ties to OWU), and also Hanover and Wabash coaches.  Also the Capital coach, so Capital has representation on the cmte.