2016 Great Lakes Region

[Mr.Right]

Ya know, overall, this has been an up and down year for CWRU.  That said, it has been nice to see us beat then #2 Kenyon and tie #1 Chicago.

Without looking at anyone's SOS #'s, just studying CWRU's schedule tells me a lot. They might have hadone of the hardest schedule's in the country and were in most games. I liked the in the little I saw of them last year but was not able to catch any of them this year. I will say the stats do show a UChicago domination but that is why we cannot always go by the stats.

[Mr.Right]

Falconer,

I do not think he had any team in mind. I was half kidding and sorry to offend.

[Domino1195]

Got to see Wooster and Washington & Lee yesterday, Capital and Wittenberg.  From what I've seen after two weeks - and I don't want to use the "Parity" word too soon - there are a lot of teams in the great lakes that are similarly built. With the exception of the Finlandia games at Otterbein and Capital (Finlandia a rebuilding program with 20? freshman - and every game but 2 or 3 on the road) this weekend every team was in the game until the end. In some games a bounce here and fortunate rebound there was the deciding variable.

Another observation: I don't think there are any super stand-out players on the teams I've seen.  No POY candidates from this region.  And that's not a bad thing as the sides are built with complementary players that seem to support one another.  The weaknesses I observed in teams the past two years - these observations based mostly on NCAC and OAC programs - aren't as glaring, just as there aren't any players that - if they missed a game - would kill a team's chances to win.  Talking with fans and parents at the games this year - all say similar things: "We have more depth this year", "There isn't that much of a drop-off when we sub".

I thought of this post I made earlier in the season - with respect to parity, deeper teams/benches and few - if any POY candidates in the Great Lakes.  I think Kinkopf is more than worthy to be included in the top 10 in the country - his value to his team cannot be understated - even after yesterday's first loss of the season.

But Parity - I feel stronger about this statement than I did when I made it.  Yes - there were some lopsided games - but a significant number of conference games were one goal affairs.  Records belie the competitiveness of some teams: Case, Heidelberg, Mt Union, Dension (8 losses - all by one goal - 4 of which were 1-0 defeats) - for example.  A bounce here, a bounce there . . .

Marietta is also a tough team - the difference between their record being three or more wins higher is a golazo at Denison or a couple of marking mistakes - and at this level, in games decided by one goal - you cannot afford even one failure to track a runner.

I expect we will see conference tournaments produce unlikely entrants into the NCAA tournament - which will prevent bubble Pool C teams from getting in. Thomas More (8 losses - 5 by 1-0 scores to DePauw, Geneva and Grove City in that group)?

Wishing all competitors well in the upcoming week's tournaments. Re-read Ryan's column on Mental Toughness - clip it out, laminate it and tuck it under your pillow at night.  Do not dare whine about officiating come Sunday: games are 90 minutes long and I guarantee that for every mistake a referee makes there will be 5 mental mistakes made by your favorite team . . .

[PaulNewman]

Kenyon grinds out a not pretty but still a win at Wabash and win the NCAC again.  Myers with another game winner.

[PaulNewman]

Shout out to Adam Chazin-Gray of Oberlin.  Excellent right back for the Yeoman but also rocking a 3.98 in biochem.  He's from Berkeley, CA so I'm gonna guess his parents are profs at Cal.

[PaulNewman]

What happens with Hanover by the 4th week could impact things quite a bit.  DePauw and OWU both hold ranked wins over Hanover.

I would expect Hanover to drop to to #7 or #8 this week and if they lose to Transy they might well drop out.  And if they lost to RHIT in the final their RvR would drop from 1-2 to 1-4 IF RHIT cracks the rankings.  RHIT and Wabash seem like the teams on the doorstep of getting ranked but there's no reason to believe anyone will drop out this week.  John Carroll should stay and CMU should at a minimum jump Hanover. 

[Mr.Right]

OWU finishes the regular season 10-4-3 after a last second goal to defeat Hiram last night. I tried to watch the game but Hiram;s video was beyond bad.. OWU is most certainly on the bubble and were ranked #2 in the Great Lakes last week. However, they are surely to drop to maybe #4 after the Kenyon loss but with a 3-3-2 RvR and decent to good SOS they are on the right side of the bubble. Still, missing your conference tournament is not good but I would be willing to bet they continue to practice this week..

[PaulNewman]

And of course the team that finished 4th in the NCAC, DePauw, is ranked #1 in GL.

IMO Great Lakes and New England are the two regions that are a chaotic mess.  The other regions make immediate intuitive sense when you look at them with teams where most would assume they would be without going heavily into the numbers.  The GL and NE cmtes have their work cut out for them.

[Ryan Harmanis]

General thoughts/comments since I've been unplugged for awhile:

(1) Thanks for the feedback on the article. No real target team in mind. Messiah and Loras provide the best case studies for teams using the rules as a competitive advantage, but I don't have anything against either program and I have no problem with teams using the rules to their benefit whenever possible.

(2) Kenyon-OWU thoughts. Kenyon was dominant, and put in the performance I expected to see all year. If they play like that they'll be tough to beat. Concerns are the same as previous years. First, Kenyon struggled to break down OWU in the run of play despite controlling the whole game. If Amolo isn't scoring or providing, they're heavily reliant on set pieces. That's not a terminal problem - Amherst won the title last year in that fashion - but peak Kenyon has Amolo being a little more dangerous than he's been for most of the season. Second, Kenyon switched off a bit in the last 20, allowing OWU more possession and a bunch of corners and set pieces that could have got them back into it. That's a problem for any team, not just Kenyon, but better teams (like OWU in the 2015 NCAC championship) might punish it. These are minor concerns, but they could make the difference between a Sweet 16 exit and a title, and I'm sure Kenyon is targeting the latter.

As for OWU, decent showing in the back but disappointing going forward. Kenyon pressed very well in midfield and OWU couldn't string anything together. They battled, but just couldn't get close.

(3) OWU has played like an inexperienced team. With the exception of the Kenyon game (and even that was only 2-0), they've had more than enough chances to win every game this year. If they'd beaten Washington and Lee (should've been up 4-0 at half) and DePauw (missed several sitters), they'd have five ranked wins and be a Pool C lock. But 26 goals in 17 games is not going to translate into a great season.

As for missing the NCAC tournament, it's a combination of blown chances and bad luck. OWU finished on 17 points, a number that would have made the top four in every single NCAC season since 1999, which is as far back as I could find records. In every season except 2003, 17 points would have been good enough for 3rd or higher. Still, nobody to blame except themselves, as they should have beaten Denison and DePauw. A result in either game puts them in the NCAC tourney, and wins in both puts them in second place.

On the NCAA front, it's hard to tell until we get Wednesday's rankings. Regardless of Hanover I'd expect OWU to be the third NCAC team, behind Kenyon and DePauw and ahead of Oberlin and (probably unranked) Wabash. When compared to Oberlin, OWU will have more ranked wins (2-1 or 3-1), higher SOS (Kenyon boost), and head-to-head edge. I doubt Wabash makes the rankings with only one ranked win and a poor SOS.

My guess: (1) DePauw (ranked wins and head-to-head over Kenyon) (2) Kenyon (3) OWU (4) Oberlin (5) Carnegie Mellon (6) Ohio Northern (7) Hanover (8) John Carroll

Hanover will come into play in Pool C, as a third ranked win might be necessary for OWU or DePauw to get in over teams from other regions. I'm not sure who replaces Hanover. Capital's SOS is too low, and the only other candidates are Wabash or Rose-Hulman. We have a bit of a three-way, as R-H beat Hanover who beat Wabash who beat R-H. Each team has one ranked win, and I believe Hanover will have the highest SOS. If you compare all three together, you probably give it to Hanover. If you drop Wabash first, then it might go to R-H with the head-to-head.

Bottom line, any NCAC team that doesn't win the automatic bid will be cheering hard for other conference favorites.

[Domino1195]

Heidelberg and Marietta about to get underway.  Interesting - Heidelberg's keeper - Kress - has two red cards this season and I thought he was going to sit out the balance of the year.  I believe a player receiving a 3rd RC in a year misses the entire next year.

[DonkeyTouch]

Heidelberg and Marietta about to get underway.  Interesting - Heidelberg's keeper - Kress - has two red cards this season and I thought he was going to sit out the balance of the year.  I believe a player receiving a 3rd RC in a year misses the entire next year.

The pertinent section of the NCAA laws of the game Domino:

12.7 Ejections and Player Suspensions
12.7.1 A player(s), coach or bench personnel ejected from a game cannot
participate in the next regularly scheduled game, including postseason
games, or, if the offense occurs in the final game of the season, in the first
scheduled game of the next season. If the ejected individual(s) is a player
of record in the game at the time of the ejection, the player, who cannot
be replaced, shall leave the game and his/her team shall play short. Each
successive red card shall result in an additional one-game suspension. For
example, a second red card shall result in a two-game suspension, a third red
card shall result in a three-game suspension, etc.

[PaulNewman]

Just want to comment on RH's analysis of Kenyon above which I think is right on the money.  I'm sure coaches in general (if they look at this site at all), who tend to be stubborn to a fault, aren't likely to be influenced by what anyone says here, but I find myself in complete agreement and who better to listen to than a very astute diehard alum/supporter of your biggest rival.  Kenyon has shown a pattern of dominating games but not scoring from the run of play or getting the number of quality, dangerous chances one would expect given the possession advantage and amount of time spent in the other team's final 3rd.  Never should have lost to CWRU who they let hang around and in several other games they should have won more comfortably.  For a Kenyon-OWU game they did win fairly comfortably, but as RH correctly pointed out, they didn't completely put OWU away and left themselves susceptible to what happened last year when they controlled the game and were comfortably ahead 2-0 and then allowed 2 goals in literally the last 75-90 seconds.  I don't think they have peaked yet, individually or collectively, and as long as they qualify for the tournament maybe that's a good thing if they can peak over the next couple of weeks.

I also think RH is absolutely correct about Amolo and his importance in the Kenyon attack.  Tony doesn't have to score (and hopefully he knows that), but he must be very involved and make an impact on games.  IMHO he needs to be on the field for more minutes.  The forwards are coming out for the last 20 minutes of the first half and for close to a 20 minutes stretch in the middle of the second half.  He needs to be out there 35-40 minutes a half, and one way to do that is to drop him into an attacking mid role when the substitute forwards come in.  As I've commented before, he has the skill, strength and vision to hold on to the ball, attack the defense and make penetrating passes.  He also might see more of the ball and feel more in control of how he is playing.  As is, the Lords are giving the ball away too easily and cheaply in the midfield.  The same type of loose turnovers are happening out of the midfield game after game.

Regardless of what happens going forward I will say that Amolo, Clougher, Glassman and the senior group as a whole have enjoyed a remarkable four year run.  They injected dynamic talent their first two years and made a good, improving team nationally competitive, and they have carried that through in their last two years.  One of the most important classes in Kenyon's history and I'm pulling for them to have a strong finish.

[Domino1195]

Reacting to Ryan and NCAC's comments:

• Run of play goals are going to become even more difficult to come by now that we are in the single elimination season.
• Set pieces will decide many games
• Direct play will become more in vogue. Get the ball deep and force defenders to make a mistake.
• There will be LOTS of 1-0 games. The Grind.

I saw both OAC games yesterday - both 1-0 double OT - both saw teams very organized defensively and waiting to create a counter-attack. Heck - the winning goals in both games were scored in the 106th minute.

As for controlling a game: my beloved Columbus Crew dominated time of possession for most of the year and won 8 of 34 games.  I find many teams will allow an opponent to swing the ball around the back, in their defensive third, grabbing a breather and waiting to see what you can do.  11 defenders packed into 40 yards, plus 9 attackers = no space.  It took Spain 116 minutes to score against Holland and they could play possession ball inside a shoe box.

I've believed that there has been parity all year long in the Great Lakes - especially when it come to defensive posture - and especially now. Dominant scorers will find it much more difficult to find space now that we are down to the top 4 teams per conference.  You can throw away the W-L records - there are no more upsets to be had.  It is execution and patience when two sides who'll play solid defense go against one-another.

[Domino1195]

Glorious day here in Ohio - although the Jeff Fox worthy crack about Ohio has been valid the past few days: "You might be from Ohio if you use your air conditioner and furnace in the same day."  Day time highs in the low 70's - no rain for several days.  Grass fields are a mess - see the Grove City - Thomas More game yesterday - a 5 yard pass had no chance of rolling with popping up. Players will need to raise their feet higher that normal to be prepared to settle an erratic hop.

Thomas More did enough to get into the final against Geneva.  I feel for GCC but their season is most likely over.  Bethany didn't trouble Geneva much last night - but the ONE time they pushed everyone up (on a corner) they conceded a counter-attack that resulted in the winning goal.  Video was very good EXCEPT when the winning shot was taken!!  It appears to have been delfected - keeper is moving to his left - video hiccups - and then you see the ball rolling slowly and painfully into the empty net (shot was from 25-30 yards).  Based on what I saw last night I think a TM win is very possible.  Geneva is organized in the back - but struggled to break down the packed-in Bethany defense.  They played to a 1-0 result a week ago - I see a similar result on Saturday.

[PaulNewman]

Kenyon overcame a very odd beginning today with Brown starting the 3rd line forwards for reasons unknown (since the first and second line forwards played later) and promptly going down 1-0 to DePauw in the first 8 minutes.  Clougher had perhaps his best game of the season, preventing DePauw from going up 2-0 or even 3-0, and then he provided the assist to Amolo for a semi-breakaway that Amolo finished nicely by holding off the defender and then beating the keeper.  Thereafter Kenyon was pretty much in control, going up 2-1 off a set piece header from CB Lowry.  Then in the second half senior Josh Lee had arguably his best moment of brilliance since his goal freshmen year to put Kenyon ahead of Wheaton (Ill) in the round of 32 at Wheaton as he cut through a throng of DPU defenders and finished nicely.  Outstanding,as Lee's goal created some separation and reduced the chances of DPU's Gonzalez winning the game on his own.  If Lee plays really well that will be a big boost for Kenyon going forward.  The Lords got another one for what turned out to be a fairly dominating 4-1 win.  I give the team a ton of credit for coming through against OWU, away at Wabash and today versus DePauw as they knew they might well need all three given how the regional rankings were playing out.  They should be safe now, having moved up to #3 this week, beating the #1 ranked team and adding a ranked win.  Of course they should obviously try to go ahead and win the AQ with home field on Saturday, but I am sure there is some relief tonight in the metropolis of Gambier, OH.

I'll touch on the GL rankings in the national thread.