2016 Great Lakes Region

[Ryan Harmanis]

Only thought on the rankings is that Carnegie Mellon is not going to stay at 2nd. They're there because (1) highest SOS of ranked teams and (2) two ranked wins. But they have a home game against a below-0.500 Case Western, so OWU and maybe DePauw and Oberlin will catch them on SOS. They will also lose a ranked win next week because John Carroll dropped out. One ranked win will drop CMU below Kenyon and OWU for sure, and perhaps lower. The GL committee will be looking to get teams into the tournament, and I can't see CMU getting in with one ranked win and a 0.555 SOS.

CMU runs a double-edged sword with the schedule. They rarely schedule top Great Lakes teams, so they don't have to deal with a head-to-head problem with anyone. On the other hand, if they don't get ranked wins from the UAA, they're in trouble.

[PaulNewman]

I guess JCU didn't like being dropped from the rankings.  Hammered Marietta 7-1.  Meanwhile ONU already up 2-0 on Capital with one of my favorite players, Horton, getting both goals.

Oberlin up 1-0 on Wabash.  Wertman struck.  Seemed like might have been offsides but really good finish.  He's got be a leading candidate for NCAC POY.

[PaulNewman]

Oberlin advances.

Hanover and Transy starting 2nd OT.

[PaulNewman]

Unreal.  Ref gives Hanover a PK in 2nd OT.  Looked like contact initiated by Hanover.  Hanover moves on to play RHIT.

[Domino1195]

 So - how many will we get? Last year's 9 was a high water mark - average is 7 over the last 7 years.

   
• The PrAC gets only one this year as Geneva and Grove City were never ranked and the winner of TM vs Geneva is Neo;
• AMCC gets only one this year - PSU-Behrend vs Medaille.  A brutal finish to PSU-B if they lose;
• HCAC - I'd like to think both finalists get in - Rose-Hulman entering the ranking for the first time this week - but it could come down to the winner of this game if there are upsets in other conference tournaments. Loser on the bubble.
• OAC - John Carroll needs to win - but does ONU also?  SOS drops .37 points in two weeks, leaving them just above .500.  Hard for me to think they miss out if they lose, especially if Oberlin gets in - which seems likely.
• NCAC - God's gift to the Great Lakes region!  Let's put them all in the tourney! Seriously, I think this conference is certainly deserving of 3 bids - but not at the expense of ONU should they falter.
• CMU - they still get in if the lose the rivalry game this weekend? Lose at Grove City, beat JCU away in only significant non conference games.  Like the NCAC, UAA conference schedules jack up their SOS - I've seen them play 3x (Allegheny, GCC, JCU) - not overwhelmed.

So if it is 9 for 2016: PSU-B, TM (I think they win vs Geneva - if it is a tough game I'm more impressed with TM's will to win), ONU - I think they are the best team I've seen play this year - too complete from front to back; giving two spots to HCAC finalists Hanover and Rose-Hulman; NCAC gets Kenyon, DePauw and Oberlin - still not impressed with Oberlin's defense; CMU. If it is 8 - the first one out is loser of the HCAC final; if it is 7 next out will be ONU if they lose, CMU if they lose.  I'm nervous for ONU - not going to be easy to win at JCU but they are fully deserving of a spot regardless.  JCU 2014  . . .

Institution	In-Division win-loss	In-Division win-loss pct	Results vs all Division Ranked Opponents	In-Division SOS (weighted OWP-OOWP)	Week 1 SOS	wk 1 rank	Week 2 SOS	Wk 2 rank	Week 3 SOS	wk rank 3
DePauw	11-4-1	( 0.719)	3-1-0	0.553	0.56	4	0.562	1	0.553	1
Carnegie Mellon	11-3-2	( 0.750)	2-2-2	0.562	0.531	7	0.534	7	0.562	2
Kenyon	15-2-0	( 0.882)	2-1-0	0.525	0.528	6	0.507	6	0.525	3
Ohio Wesleyan	10-4-3	( 0.676)	3-3-1	0.56	0.553	3	0.562	2	0.56	4
Ohio Northern	15-1-3	( 0.868)	1-0-2	0.508	0.545	1	0.515	4	0.508	5
Oberlin	14-3-1	( 0.806)	1-3-0	0.542	0.561	2	0.562	3	0.542	6
Hanover	13-4-0	( 0.765)	1-2-0	0.538	0.543	5	0.531	5	0.538	7
Rose-Hulman	13-5-0	( 0.722)	1-2-0	0.527	0.54	-	0.526	-	0.527	8
John Carroll	11-5-2	( 0.667)	0-3-1	0.55	0.554	-	0.569	8	0.55	-
Wabash	11-5-2	( 0.667)	1-4-1	0.527	0.54	8	0.515	-	0.527	-

     
Nov 5
Oberlin at Kenyon, 1:00 PM
Ohio Northern at John Carroll, 7:00 PM
Hanover at Rose-Hulman, 1:00 PM
Medaille at Penn State-Behrend, 4:30 PM
Thomas More at Geneva, 7:00 PM

[Midwest Soccer]

Domino,

Good analysis but I think it's a far stretch to hope that the loser of the HCAC championship would jump from the bottom 2 rankings into the top 4-5 which is likely where you have to be in order to be selected.

Oberlin is also in a tough spot- Wabash falls from the rankings so they lose a ranked win from the regular season and fail to pick up another ranked win last night in their grudge match even though Wabash is a quality side. Oberlin is 1-3 vs ranked teams this year including head to head losses to 3 teams that are ahead of them (ONU 0-4, Kenyon 2-3, OWU 0-3) . I think their only way into the NCAA tournament is by winning in Gambier on Saturday unless the Great Lakes gets 4-5 at large bids which is highly unlikely.

1.) PSU-B 2.) TM 3.) ONU/JCU (but not both, albeit it would be a travesty if ONU is not in the tournament field, their numbers don't match up well), 4.) R-H/Hanover (but not both), 5.) DePauw 6.) Kenyon and then maybe 7a.) OWU 7b.) Oberlin 7c.) CMU.

For OWU, they need Hanover to stay in the rankings. For CMU, they need JCU to win the OAC and hopefully hop back in the rankings giving them 2 ranked wins. Oberlin...as I said before, I think they need to win the NCAC Championship to guarantee a spot. If they fail to, they fall to 1-4 RvR which will be tough to get in unless the GL region gets more at larges this year than last (they received 3 last year: DePauw, OWU, and Thomas More).

[DonkeyTouch]

Domino,

Good analysis but I think it's a far stretch to hope that the loser of the HCAC championship would jump from the bottom 2 rankings into the top 4-5 which is likely where you have to be in order to be selected.

Oberlin is also in a tough spot- Wabash falls from the rankings so they lose a ranked win from the regular season and fail to pick up another ranked win last night in their grudge match even though Wabash is a quality side. Oberlin is 1-3 vs ranked teams this year including head to head losses to 3 teams that are ahead of them (ONU 0-4, Kenyon 2-3, OWU 0-3) . I think their only way into the NCAA tournament is by winning in Gambier on Saturday unless the Great Lakes gets 4-5 at large bids which is highly unlikely.

1.) PSU-B 2.) TM 3.) ONU/JCU (but not both, albeit it would be a travesty if ONU is not in the tournament field, their numbers don't match up well), 4.) R-H/Hanover (but not both), 5.) DePauw 6.) Kenyon and then maybe 7a.) OWU 7b.) Oberlin 7c.) CMU.

For OWU, they need Hanover to stay in the rankings. For CMU, they need JCU to win the OAC and hopefully hop back in the rankings giving them 2 ranked wins. Oberlin...as I said before, I think they need to win the NCAC Championship to guarantee a spot. If they fail to, they fall to 1-4 RvR which will be tough to get in unless the GL region gets more at larges this year than last (they received 3 last year: DePauw, OWU, and Thomas More).

While I agree with Domino that it's a crazy thought, and that travesty is probably the right word...I'm with you on the OAC Midwest... it's just not a conference that gets 2 teams in, even in these extreme circumstances.  The situation gets even worse if Oberlin manages to pull off the NCAC AQ, because I think Kenyon is safe now...

I think the loser of the OAC final is out.... obviously so if JCU loses, but when you look what other regions offer in terms of SoS comparison against ONU, it's just not close.... Of all currently regionally ranked teams, ONU's SoS ranks 61st of 62, with one ranked win... As good as they are, I don't think that's a recipe for a pool C.  As much as they pass the eye test, I think they have to win Saturday.

[Domino1195]

And so we're on to the discussion of scheduling - and winning - out of conference games.  Much like Kenyon last year - and somewhat this year - ONU's pre-conference schedule needed to be more challenging. 

But then you have JCU that almost killed themselves pre-season - and that included Wheaton (Ill) and Case - both very down this year - in addition to Brandeis, PSU-Behrend and CMU.  Fredonia had a surprising year - 7 of JCU's 9 pre-conference opponents have winning records; they played only 2 home games in the pre-season.  They go 3-5-1.  OWU plays 8 straight home games before their first road game (a loss at Capital) - going 5-2-1 in their preseason.

Oberlin had spotty results against the OAC - 4-3 win over Baldwin Wallace, the ONU loss and tie at home against Otterbein (an 87th minute needed to get the draw at home) - not to mention the preseason loss to Capital; Kenyon had troubles with Heidelberg and Otterbein; OWU beat Otterbein 2-0, ties ONU and loses to Capital; DePauw and Wabash did not play OAC teams.  So there's SOS numbers - where a win is a win - and then there's the eye test: how did they win? How are they playing?

Hanover was bruised at OWU - dominated - yet only lost 1-0. The DePauw loss wasn't as lop-sided - a 2-1 loss.  The loss at Transy - they owned that game - Transy had two shots on goal to Hanover's 11; in the recent Rose lose they outshot Rose 15-3 - gave up two goals in 1 minute late second half.  John Carroll went 8-0-1 in conference after a very tough pre-conference.  These are the teams that will get screwed so a third or fourth NCAC team can get in . . .

[Midwest Soccer]

Domino,

I can appreciate your overall sentiment but saying Hanover gets screwed if they don't get an at large is a stretch considering as you stated, they had opportunity to take down DePauw and OWU and didn't. They have 1 ranked win against a very impressive Carthage team but if you look closely, Carthage had a red card in the 14th minute. That's not intended to take away from Hanover because they are a very deserving team, but they have had their opportunity in the regular season. Racking up wins vs the lesser HCAC teams doesn't warrant an at large NCAA bid when you lose the close ones to the teams who are ahead of you. Having said all this, I think Hanover will win the AQ this Saturday.

JCU is 8-0-1 in their last 9 which is very impressive and they are a very good team. But they too have had their opportunity to pull off ranked wins and currently sit at 0-3-1. I would not be surprised in the slightest if John Carroll takes down ONU this weekend either. JCU has gotten better and better as the season has worn on. I wonder if they wish they could have started with the OAC schedule and then moved onto the non-conference. Playing at Brandeis in your opening game is no easy task.

Bottom line: This is a flawed system. If ONU gets upset and doesn't make the tournament then they will probably be one of the best teams to ever not play in the NCAA tournament.

[Ryan Harmanis]

I agree with most of what's been said above. I think DePauw and Kenyon are probably safe. Oberlin needs to beat Kenyon - OWU has an edge in ranked wins (3-1), SOS, and head-to-head, so if Oberlin loses they'll be the fourth NCAC team.

If JCU loses they're out. With a loss, JCU would have 6 losses, zero ranked wins, and a winning percentage lower than any team that's ranked. No unranked team has made it from Pool C in years as well.

If ONU loses, they still have a shot, but it'll be tough. It might depend on how much their SOS jumps this week. If it stays super low, they're in trouble, especially with only one ranked win and no head-to-head edge against Kenyon, DePauw, or OWU. The winning percentage could help against DePauw or OWU, but unless the SOS goes up a bunch I think it'll be tough.

The Hanover-RHIT loser is out. The resumes just don't stack up, and neither of them beat any of the other teams in the GL rankings.

ONU is the only team I'd have sympathy for if they don't get an at-large. I don't think I'd use the term "screwed" - they knew the requirements to get in when they scheduled, and the only teams they could have expected to be ranked from their non-conference were OWU and Oberlin. But ONU is certainly good enough to be in the tournament, and I think they're right there with Kenyon as one of the two best teams. The problem for ONU becomes, how do you compare them against teams from other regions? Can't just use the eye test when few (if any) have seen all of these teams play.

Outside of ONU, every other team can point to games they could/should have won that would give them the resume needed to get in. They didn't get those wins, and that leaves them at the mercy of the committee and hoping that other results fall their way.

[PaulNewman]

I wouldn't say ONU would be "screwed" in the strict sense, but if ONU doesn't end up with a bid I think that does go to how badly the selection system is flawed, just as I would have argued if Kenyon had been left out last year or this year.  ONU has been considered one of the top 7-8 teams in the country for virtually the entire season.  I think we've seen this year how even with decent planning a team cannot guarantee a certain SOS.  I would concede that a team can increase its chances for a good SOS but a series of unforeseen events can drop a SOS (or elevate a SOS) far more than could be anticipated ahead of time.  Teams also can't account for strong teams not being ranked or being ranked at the wrong time and/or a team you lost to being ranked at the right or wrong time.  In terms of ONU and their expectations for ranked wins, I don't know that they would have been counting on Oberlin, but I would think they reasonably could have hoped/expected JCU and/or CWRU to be ranked in addition to OWU.  They also could have hoped a team like Heidelberg with some recent relative success might have jumped in.  Sure, ONU could have scheduled one more non-conference heavyweight, but I would not have described their schedule as weak in advance.  Their SOS is going to rise after playing Capital and away at JCU to probably somewhere within the .525-.540 range.  The other candidates will still have a significant edge on SOS but the gap may be reduced enough to make the discussion for the cmte much tougher especially given ONU's far superior winning pct.  In addition to adjusting/changing the criteria perhaps they should consider a system where the national cmte reserves 2-3 spots per year to correct for the more egregious omissions to the tournament based on strict fidelity to the criteria.

Oberlin is the only other team in the region that I would personally feel bad for.  They've had their best season in program history, and they are actually very good and fun to watch.  They play good soccer.  They very well may beat Kenyon tomorrow and then they'll be in. If not, they are stuck with a RvR that is problematic for them.  They could have hoped for CWRU and/or Wabash and/or Heidelberg to be ranked.  I have credited them for wins over Geneva and Grove City, and they did benefit (a lot) for those two on SOS but in fairness they probably knew those two were longshots to get or stay ranked.  Oberlin's SOS should jump back up to DPU/OWU/CMU levels after the games with Wabash and Kenyon.  So SOS will be relatively even with Oberlin having a better winning pct than DPU or OWU and weaker RvR.

This is a strange year when there are so many 6-8 blemish teams still in strong contention for bids in especially in the New England, East and Great Lakes regions, and that's mainly because of so few teams behind them that either didn't take advantage of surpassing them or won't have the right stats by the criteria.  In Great Lakes CMU is right about where they often are in terms of record while their RvR may be a bit weaker than usual.  IMO DPU and OWU have had relatively mediocre years by their standards (especially OWU) and in many years most of us would look at their records and presume a Pool C is out of the question.  I would assume even the cmtes would consider teams placing 4th and 5th in their own conference to be ranked #1 and #2 in Week 2 and then #1 and #4 in Week 3 to be a head-scratching outcome.  That's how it played out with the criteria but I would think one would have to question the criteria when we see outcomes like this.  Even with the criteria I can't really understand DPU being #1.  Yes, they picked up some ranked wins, but otherwise their resume in total IMO is not that impressive.  Put another way, if you had told DPU and OWU that they would have 6 and 7 blemishes each and finish 4th and 5th in the NCAC I would seriously doubt either could have imagined even being in the Pool C discussion.

At any rate, the GL teams in Pool C contention would seem to be Kenyon, ONU, DPU, OWU, CMU and Oberlin.  Either Kenyon or Oberlin will get an AQ.  ONU may get an AQ.  So that would leave 4 teams vying for how many slots?  2? 3? 4?  In my mind the wild cards are what the cmte will do with ONU (if ONU loses to JCU) and CMU (assuming CMU beats CWRU at home).  As some will be quick to remind, these teams won't be competing with just each other but also and maybe more so with teams with roughly similar resumes from other regions.

[PaulNewman]

Great stuff....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eE6LwHsjnUQ

[DonkeyTouch]

I wouldn't say ONU would be "screwed" in the strict sense, but if ONU doesn't end up with a bid I think that does go to how badly the selection system is flawed, just as I would have argued if Kenyon had been left out last year or this year.  ONU has been considered one of the top 7-8 teams in the country for virtually the entire season.  I think we've seen this year how even with decent planning a team cannot guarantee a certain SOS.  I would concede that a team can increase its chances for a good SOS but a series of unforeseen events can drop a SOS (or elevate a SOS) far more than could be anticipated ahead of time.  Teams also can't account for strong teams not being ranked or being ranked at the wrong time and/or a team you lost to being ranked at the right or wrong time.  In terms of ONU and their expectations for ranked wins, I don't know that they would have been counting on Oberlin, but I would think they reasonably could have hoped/expected JCU and/or CWRU to be ranked in addition to OWU.  They also could have hoped a team like Heidelberg with some recent relative success might have jumped in.  Sure, ONU could have scheduled one more non-conference heavyweight, but I would not have described their schedule as weak in advance.  Their SOS is going to rise after playing Capital and away at JCU to probably somewhere within the .525-.540 range.  The other candidates will still have a significant edge on SOS but the gap may be reduced enough to make the discussion for the cmte much tougher especially given ONU's far superior winning pct.  In addition to adjusting/changing the criteria perhaps they should consider a system where the national cmte reserves 2-3 spots per year to correct for the more egregious omissions to the tournament based on strict fidelity to the criteria.

Oberlin is the only other team in the region that I would personally feel bad for.  They've had their best season in program history, and they are actually very good and fun to watch.  They play good soccer.  They very well may beat Kenyon tomorrow and then they'll be in. If not, they are stuck with a RvR that is problematic for them.  They could have hoped for CWRU and/or Wabash and/or Heidelberg to be ranked.  I have credited them for wins over Geneva and Grove City, and they did benefit (a lot) for those two on SOS but in fairness they probably knew those two were longshots to get or stay ranked.  Oberlin's SOS should jump back up to DPU/OWU/CMU levels after the games with Wabash and Kenyon.  So SOS will be relatively even with Oberlin having a better winning pct than DPU or OWU and weaker RvR.

This is a strange year when there are so many 6-8 blemish teams still in strong contention for bids in especially in the New England, East and Great Lakes regions, and that's mainly because of so few teams behind them that either didn't take advantage of surpassing them or won't have the right stats by the criteria.  In Great Lakes CMU is right about where they often are in terms of record while their RvR may be a bit weaker than usual.  IMO DPU and OWU have had relatively mediocre years by their standards (especially OWU) and in many years most of us would look at their records and presume a Pool C is out of the question.  I would assume even the cmtes would consider teams placing 4th and 5th in their own conference to be ranked #1 and #2 in Week 2 and then #1 and #4 in Week 3 to be a head-scratching outcome.  That's how it played out with the criteria but I would think one would have to question the criteria when we see outcomes like this.  Even with the criteria I can't really understand DPU being #1.  Yes, they picked up some ranked wins, but otherwise their resume in total IMO is not that impressive.  Put another way, if you had told DPU and OWU that they would have 6 and 7 blemishes each and finish 4th and 5th in the NCAC I would seriously doubt either could have imagined even being in the Pool C discussion.

At any rate, the GL teams in Pool C contention would seem to be Kenyon, ONU, DPU, OWU, CMU and Oberlin.  Either Kenyon or Oberlin will get an AQ.  ONU may get an AQ.  So that would leave 4 teams vying for how many slots?  2? 3? 4?  In my mind the wild cards are what the cmte will do with ONU (if ONU loses to JCU) and CMU (assuming CMU beats CWRU at home).  As some will be quick to remind, these teams won't be competing with just each other but also and maybe more so with teams with roughly similar resumes from other regions.

I can't agree on "I would not have described their schedule as weak in advance" with regard to ONU, and that's coming from a fan of that program.  They always play Wesleyan, and yes, they could have hoped for Case to be "up" again like 2015 after poor (by their own lofty standards) seasons in '12, '13, and '14..  Oberlin is exactly the kind of team you ought to be scheduling - solid, probably will help SoS... but with ONU's senior laden group, you have to think that staff believes that if they play their best soccer they get a result against a program that is typically in the middle of the NCAC pack. 

But the rest?

As I pointed out in an earlier post, without weighting for home/away, and only considering OWP and not OOWP... ONU's SoS from their non conference slate is actually HIGHER than they could have anticipated based on the prior 4 years of results from their non conference opponents.  Cumulative record from their non conference schedule was below .500 in ALL of the prior 4 years.

This isn't a "so-and-so underperformed and hurt our SoS" type of schedule.  This is a "we play in the OAC, which we know has a weak bottom half, and if we therefore choose to feast on HCAC teams for our non conference slate, we have only ourselves to blame" type of schedule.

I hope they take care of business tomorrow so the committee isn't pressed to choose between them and the 3rd or 4th ranked non-AQ teams from New England or the Mid-Atlantic.

[PaulNewman]

We might be missing each other on Oberlin.  ONU DID play Oberlin and won 4-0.  My point there is that there were no preseason predictions that Oberlin would have the season they have had and be regionally ranked all four weeks.  As for compensating for a week conference, I'm not sure what a school does about that.  The bottom 4 of the NCAC is pretty weak too.  Anyway the decision will be tougher for the cmtes if ONU's SOS is around .535 as opposed to .505 or whatever it was for the rankings this week.

[Domino1195]

I can't agree on "I would not have described their schedule as weak in advance" with regard to ONU, and that's coming from a fan of that program.  They always play Wesleyan, and yes, they could have hoped for Case to be "up" again like 2015 after poor (by their own lofty standards) seasons in '12, '13, and '14..  Oberlin is exactly the kind of team you ought to be scheduling - solid, probably will help SoS... but with ONU's senior laden group, you have to think that staff believes that if they play their best soccer they get a result against a program that is typically in the middle of the NCAC pack. 

But the rest?

As I pointed out in an earlier post, without weighting for home/away, and only considering OWP and not OOWP... ONU's SoS from their non conference slate is actually HIGHER than they could have anticipated based on the prior 4 years of results from their non conference opponents.  Cumulative record from their non conference schedule was below .500 in ALL of the prior 4 years.

This isn't a "so-and-so underperformed and hurt our SoS" type of schedule.  This is a "we play in the OAC, which we know has a weak bottom half, and if we therefore choose to feast on HCAC teams for our non conference slate, we have only ourselves to blame" type of schedule.

I hope they take care of business tomorrow so the committee isn't pressed to choose between them and the 3rd or 4th ranked non-AQ teams from New England or the Mid-Atlantic.

I appreciate the honesty.  There can be a lot of boorish partisan chatter on these boards and it's refreshing that one with direct links to a program can be honest about their position "on the bubble".  I too thought with all those seniors - with several candidates for All Region honors - Kinkopf surely has to be all NSCAA All American - that ONU could have done more with their preseason schedule.  I know some schedule commitments can be made several years into the future, but established programs should know better.

OWU gave themselves a great start to the season by scheduling 8 straight home games, knowing they were going to be so young. Capital traded some higher caliber competition - Transylvania, Case - for Finlandia and Wittenberg - but after 2015's 2-7 start to the season, you learn that you can crush a young team's spirit with a death march in the preseason.

Embedded in my previous comments is the sentiment that up-and-coming programs don't stand of chance of seeing Pool C, given the current process. When you are developing a program, you need to get results that attract and continue to appeal to the next group of recruits. You want to offer players that commit to you some chance at the post season, also knowing that each new class of recruits MAY cause these same upperclassmen to lose playing time - and possibly quit.  When an up-and-coming program has a decent year - you feel for them and wish they'd get a shot - in spite of the bludgeoning of SOS conversations.  So when it gets down to the last one in:  an established OWU program that smartly put together a favorable schedule, knowing that the NCAC would always provide a boost to the SOS - or a Geneva, Hanover, Grove City, PSU-B if they fail to get the AQ? This is strictly a sentimental statement - not looking for another discussion of SOS . . .