2016 Great Lakes Region

[Ryan Harmanis]

Embedded in my previous comments is the sentiment that up-and-coming programs don't stand of chance of seeing Pool C, given the current process. When you are developing a program, you need to get results that attract and continue to appeal to the next group of recruits. You want to offer players that commit to you some chance at the post season, also knowing that each new class of recruits MAY cause these same upperclassmen to lose playing time - and possibly quit.  When an up-and-coming program has a decent year - you feel for them and wish they'd get a shot - in spite of the bludgeoning of SOS conversations.  So when it gets down to the last one in:  an established OWU program that smartly put together a favorable schedule, knowing that the NCAC would always provide a boost to the SOS - or a Geneva, Hanover, Grove City, PSU-B if they fail to get the AQ? This is strictly a sentimental statement - not looking for another discussion of SOS . . .

Pool C is tied much more to your schedule (and your conference) than it is to whether you're an "established" or an "up-and-coming" program. If Allegheny had gone 11-5-2 (instead of 5-11-2) with wins over Carnegie Mellon, OWU, Kenyon, and Christopher Newport, they'd be a lock for a Pool C despite coming from nowhere. ONU, on the other hand, is an "established" program, but they'll be on the bubble if they lose tomorrow, because they played eleven non-conference games, yet scheduled only one team they could count on to be regionally ranked.

Every up-and-coming program - even ones from one-bid conferences - has a chance (and a good one) at the postseason through the AQ. If you play in the HCAC or the OAC or other traditional one-bid leagues, you only need to win 2 conference tournament games and you're in. If you consistently do well in your conference, you'll recruit better players. Make an NCAA run or win the conference tournament a few years in a row, and you can continue the momentum. Eventually, you can get to the level where you can afford to load up the out-of-conference schedule because you're confident that either (a) you'll get enough results there to get a Pool C or (b) you'll win the conference AQ if you don't. That's what Messiah has been doing forever in a weak conference.

The alternative, quicker way is to schedule some big boys and take your shots. That's what Hanover did this year, and if they'd beaten OWU and DePauw they'd have a decent chance at a Pool C. As it stands, they still have a great shot to get in by winning tomorrow, in large part because the trade-off for playing in a weaker conference is that it's much easier to win the AQ.. So schedule 8-9 non-conference games, and go after 3-4 teams that are traditionally ranked. Win most of those, add in the SOS boost, then you have a chance for an at-large and a really good chance for the AQ. Hanover played it correctly this year, and Thomas More got an at-large doing it last year, so it's doable.

Bottom line, Pool C is about two things: (1) scheduling good teams and (2) beating them. The point of Pool C is to let in the best teams who miss out on AQs. Even if the SOS metric were calculated in a better way, the schedule itself is where you demonstrate you are one of the best teams, because you need ranked wins. If you don't play anybody, how do we know you're better than a team that played and beat several good teams? Even if the eye test were a thing, there are 408 teams in D-III, so it's impossible to have watched enough to compare teams between regions with anything resembling accuracy.

For example, how do we know that ONU is better than Tufts? They haven't played each other. They have no common opponents. Both have looked great (ONU over Oberlin, Tufts over Amherst) and not-so-good. Nobody can really claim they've watched both teams very often to make a good "eye test" comparison. Tufts has lost more games, but they also have 5 wins that are as-good or better than ONU's best win. So while I think ONU is good enough to beat several ranked teams, I know Tufts is good enough. And although I can speculate ONU would have a better record against Tufts's schedule, I can also speculate that Tufts would have a better record with ONU's weaker schedule. So the committee has opted, correctly in my view, to reward teams for winning tough games - even at the expense of more blemishes - rather than for winning a bunch of easy games.

Knowing that the eye test is essentially useless between regions, the Great Lakes committee is in a bind. Let's say the eye test suggests ONU is the second-best team behind Kenyon. How does ONU compare to teams from other regions? If the SOS stays at 0.510, with only one ranked win, not well. So ONU keeps getting passed over for teams from other regions. And because ONU can't get off the board, neither can DePauw or OWU, who would stack up better against other regions with better wins and a higher SOS. So it makes sense to have DePauw and OWU higher, getting them off the board faster, and then you hope ONU can still get a bid.

This might all be a moot point tomorrow. ONU can win, or their SOS can jump to 0.525 or higher, making them competitive with the high win%. But I don't think we can just run it off the polls. If that were the case, then established teams would get the benefit of the doubt, because a 14-3-0 Messiah is much more likely to be ranked in the D3soccer.com poll than a 14-3-0 Allegheny. I think the SOS needs fixed, but aside from that I haven't been able to come up with a realistic solution that improves the current selection process.

[Ryan Harmanis]

Two things on OWU:

(1) Totally agree with NCAC's thoughts, in that 10-4-3 and missing the conference tournament is not good enough for an NCAA bid in a normal year. Three things have kept OWU in it. (a) Other teams, both in the Great Lakes and other regions, have not had great seasons. (b) OWU limited in-region ranked losses to DePauw and Kenyon. If Kenyon wins tomorrow, only one NCAC at-large team will be above them. (c) OWU picked up two out-of-conference ranked wins, giving them 3.

If they don't get in, that's fine. They should have won more games, especially against W&L, Denison, and DePauw. And even now, OWU needed (and still needs) a lot of luck, starting with Hanover and Calvin and continuing with Kenyon and other heavy favorites (Messiah, Amherst, etc.) around the country. But if they get in, it'll mainly be because of a down year overall and because OWU played four non-conference games against ranked teams and won two of them.

I bashed RPI last year, and OWU is certainly open to criticism for missing the conference tournament, but it would be less of a shock. RPI only had two ranked wins and went 3-3-2 in conference, finishing 7th out of 9 teams in a two-bid league. OWU went 5-2-2 and finished 5th in what would be a three-bid league. It's not a good look, but I don't think you can disqualify teams solely for missing their conference tournaments. To put it in perspective, if OWU played in the OAC or NESCAC they'd have made the conference tournament easily. Plus, what if OWU had beaten W&L and ONU? They'd have 5 ranked wins and would still have missed the conference tournament, but they'd be a lock. All of that is to say that I agree OWU is probably undeserving of a bid in most years, but this year might be a really odd exception. (If OWU were to get in over teams with better resumes, however, I will be thrilled on a personal level but will hit the committee accordingly).

(2) OWU's schedule is getting blown out of proportion. Yes, they had 8 home games to start, but that was a scheduling quirk more than an intentional set-up. OWU has traditionally (for decades) hosted two non-conference tournaments on the first two weekends. They only started traveling one of the two weekends in 2010. Since then, OWU has gone back-and-forth playing both weekends at home (2011, 2013, 2016) or one away (2010, 2012, 2014, 2015). This year both non-conference tournaments were at home, while next year they'll be away for one. As for the other games, OWU played ONU, Hanover, and Otterbein on the road last year, so this year they were set as home games. And they played Capital at home last year, so got them on the road this year, but not until after they played Denison at home (who they visited last year).

If the Capital game had fallen in early September, this would be a non-issue, especially considering the quality opponents OWU played. They brought in Calvin, ONU, W&L, and Hanover, all teams expected to win their conferences, and all teams that ended up regionally ranked.  They won two of those games, and that's why they have a chance for a Pool C. John Carroll, on the other hand, played three ranked teams, and lost to all of them. That's really the difference between the two teams.

I won't deny in the least bit that it was good for OWU to have those games at home. But OWU started 4-5 seniors this year, whereas next year there's a good chance 8-9 freshman/sophomores start with only 2-3 juniors/seniors. Yet OWU will have more tough road games, with an early road weekend plus games at ONU, Otterbein, Oberlin, DePauw, and Wabash. Bottom line, OWU always builds a good schedule, and if they win some of those games, they have a decent shot at a Pool C even if they struggle in-conference.

[PaulNewman]

As an enthusiastic rival fan who still wants to believe he can thread the needle on this....

I agree with everything RH wrote.  OWU has a lot to do with being in a position to take advantage of a down year.  They did well enough and got enough key wins to be in that position.  They had a reasonably challenging schedule with some non-conference teams almost guaranteed to have high winning pcts (Calvin, ONU....and if I was OWU I would schedule Calvin home and away for the next 20 years because that is SOS money in the bank...and often the same for ONU).  IMO, they still got an unexpected boost on SOS, as the away Capital game exceeded expectations on SOS, Hanover was a good pick but that also probably exceeded expectations, and 4 other NCAC teams had SOS friendly records which is probably at least 1 more than normal.  At any rate, OWU hasn't done anything wrong and isn't getting any special favors (as far as I can tell when looking at matters clearly).  That said, the karma aspect of this, as a rival, still is a little stunning.  OWU never misses the tournament.  I haven't checked but there may not be any misses or at most 1 or 2 over the past 25-30 years.  And then the one time they maybe should miss on the merits relative to historical norms, and the one year they did in fact miss the conference tournament (because when did that last happen?), THEY turn out to be a team that finds their relatively-speaking down season for them to be the season when the Pool C environment just happens to be so down.  Compare this year to the year when it was dicey whether OWU would get a bid over that 17-4 JCU team (when both should have gotten bids) and OWU had had a more typically stellar season but was behind JCU in the 3rd week regional rankings.  That team, after being on the fence during a very competitive Pool C year, of course went on to the Final Four.

Here's a kind of ultimate, albeit odd, expression of respect....As a rival fan, OWU is like the bad guy in the horror flick.  You think you've gotten rid of the guy 5 or 6 times already, and then there he is again.

Calvin by the way is a great example of SOS not telling the whole story about whether a team is the real deal or not.  Last year they were the last-ranked team in their region most weeks of the regional rankings and I believe they are the last team currently in the Central.  In New England and maybe some other regions they wouldn't be ranked at all because of that SOS.  Someone mentioned that ONU was 61st out of 62 teams on SOS this week (which is going to change).  The 62nd team was Calvin.  And they have been a perennial national power and a national finalist and Final Four team in recent years.

[Domino1195]

Absolutely gorgeous conditions here in Gambier - perfect autumn day and the field looks to be in great condition. Only issue is they are playing the same set of music for the third straight year!!!

[Domino1195]

Not sure what the over-under is for slipping but it's going to be about 50 by half. We had frost this morning - might be some residual moisture. Grass is cut like a putting green and the ground is firm - which make footing very difficult.

[Domino1195]

So only 2 of the 8 regionally ranked teams grabbed their AQ yesterday - Hanover and Kenyon. CMU took care of business and with CWRU's gaudy SOS and Wash U tying Chicago (CMU beating Wash U 3-0) - might they move to #1 in the 4th rankings? Regardless, they get in. DePauw stays in the top 3 and gets a bid. With some of the AQ upsets in the east that probably cuts into Pool C opportunities in the Great Lakes. OWU, Oberlin and ONU fighting for one - maybe two spots. Interesting that all three played on another - Oberlin 0-2 - that can't be good for them - yet they go to 2OT in the championship game.  ONU falls behind 2-0 at JCU, fights back for the tie, loses in PK's.

Good luck to all candidates - it's all about supporting our region from here on out.

Wondering who gets to go to Chicago next weekend? DePauw and Calvin? Hanover - or will they host? Unfortunate RC to Desai yesterday - if that carries over he misses two games.

[PaulNewman]

So only 2 of the 8 regionally ranked teams grabbed their AQ yesterday - Hanover and Kenyon. CMU took care of business and with CWRU's gaudy SOS and Wash U tying Chicago (CMU beating Wash U 3-0) - might they move to #1 in the 4th rankings? Regardless, they get in. DePauw stays in the top 3 and gets a bid. With some of the AQ upsets in the east that probably cuts into Pool C opportunities in the Great Lakes. OWU, Oberlin and ONU fighting for one - maybe two spots. Interesting that all three played on another - Oberlin 0-2 - that can't be good for them - yet they go to 2OT in the championship game.  ONU falls behind 2-0 at JCU, fights back for the tie, loses in PK's.

Good luck to all candidates - it's all about supporting our region from here on out.

Wondering who gets to go to Chicago next weekend? DePauw and Calvin? Hanover - or will they host? Unfortunate RC to Desai yesterday - if that carries over he misses two games.

My prediction for regional rankings goes Kenyon, either ONU or CMU (but both get in), DPU, OWU, Oberlin, Hanover with RHIT dropping out and JCU coming back in which may have some marginal impact for a few teams.  I think ONU's SOS is going to rise just enough to edge ONU upwards.  Just can't overlook 17-1-4 in this region.  CMU would benefit if JCU comes back in if the cmtes do in fact go to consideration of the 4th week in terms of RvR which given how close these calls are going to be I think they will have to consider every possible angle available.  I think that nudges CMU past DPU and OWU.  No real way for OWU to get past DPU.  So in this scenario OWU would wait to see if the selections go deep enough into Great Lakes, and I think that will likely happen because of the relative weakness in some other regions.  Of course it could go Kenyon, DPU, OWU, CMU, ONU, and then ONU is on the fence.  In either case, Oberlin is the likely odd man out.  I don't like that, as in my view Oberlin has had a stronger overall season than DPU, OWU and maybe even CMU.  I'm an Oberlin fan, I like the program a lot and how they play, love the school, etc, etc.  If there is any way for Oberlin to get a bid I want them to get it.  That said, I'm not thrilled that Oberlin in their recaps continues to refer over and over to the "controversial...gifted, gifted x2...stolen by Kenyon" game at Oberlin that Kenyon won on a last-second goal, and in post game comments yesterday the coach referred to the challenge presented by the field and having to deal with Kenyon "playing it safe" (whatever that means).  Regarding the first game, yes, that was tough, but Kenyon was going to get the corner off with at least a crack at it and if they had scored there with an extra ball rolling around and Oberlin not organized for the corner they naturally would have complained about that.  The stoppage gave both teams, not one, an opportunity to get organized.  Go ahead and clear the corner and there's no issue, and in any event the outcome would have been a draw for Oberlin and not a win.  I'm fine with calling it "controversial," but the implications of something sort of nefarious is a little much.  There have been a bunch of games this year won or lost in the final seconds of games.  Regarding playing it safe, Kenyon was the team down 1-0 and the team that outshot Oberlin 17-7 and had more of the possession from what I could tell.  If he means not playing keep-away with the ball in your own 18 yard box with the GK, then fine, guilty as charged.  It's a bitter pill to swallow.  Understood.  Oberlin produced two outstanding efforts against Kenyon and came away with nothing for it.  They finished a legit #2 in the NCAC regular season and then made the NCAC final to back that up.  But it's not Kenyon's fault if they don't get in.

Domino, you were in Gambier.  Impressions from yesterday?  I didn't get to watch most of it so I don't a good sense for what happened other than seeing that both teams struggled with footing.

[PaulNewman]

Congrats to old Great Lakes friend, Centre, for earning an AQ.

[Domino1195]

 NCAC - yes indeed I was at the game. Then I watched PSU-Behrend on my iPad by a bonfire, then inside to watch ONU-JCU on the iPad, Geneva-TM on my iPhone while watching Ohio State glancing over my iStuff. Damn hard being a sports fan sometimes . . .

The slipping was less prevalent second half but I was so afraid the game would be marred by a defender falling and conceding a breakaway. Kenyon's toughness was ultimately the deciding factor - but they just aren't as quick as previous teams - not the level of combination play we're used to seeing. Barnes has not been replaced - tall task to begin with - but the flow if the ball through the midfield to the front line is just not there. Both regular time goals were on the fluky side - a quarter-punched cross from the right acted like a driven ball - only to descend after getting over the keeper and fall into to path of the back post runner for Oberlin. Kenyon's goal came from a "shross" - a miss hit cross that floated into the back upper 90.

If I could have my choice I'd like to see Geneva, PSU-B and JCU at Kenyon next weekend, with JCU vs Geneva. On Sunday I'd hope for Kenyon vs JCU.

ONU's keeper has a serious deficiency dealing with high crosses. Donkey covered it in his post-Capital
game comments - but the goal conceded in the first JCU game and the howler on the corner last night have to be concerning to ONU coaches and fans.

Most misleading score line yesterday was the 4-0 game at PSU-B. PSU-B is opportunistic - but several posts and crossbar hits by Medaille, some serious possession in the PSU-B final third - 4-0 doesn't tell the full story.

I've seen Hanover a couple times - I like the way they play. Depending where they go they could be a Sweet 16 candidate. I would love to see a CMU-Hanover game! I don't see Geneva getting there - typical for TM to commit a stupid penalty first minute of OT - they were just an undisciplined mess this year. I'm guessing CMU will host and get PSU, Geneva and a Pool C - OWU, maybe ONU.

[Ryan Harmanis]

Just finished my portion of the predictions. What a process. The bubble is a train wreck. So many teams are so close, so it's going to be a crapshoot tomorrow.

Great Lakes predictions for at-large purposes: (1) DePauw; (2) OWU; (3) Carnegie; (4) ONU; (5) Oberlin

I think OWU jumps Carnegie because CMU will only have one ranked win (to OWU's three) and I'm confident their SOS will drop below OWU's after the home multiplier gets applied to Case's poor record. Even if John Carroll jumps back in, I don't see how it's enough for Carnegie to re-jump OWU once it gets to the at-large stage.

Aside from DePauw I don't think any GL teams is very safe. I think OWU has the best chance - the three ranked wins loom large. Carnegie probably needs John Carroll to get back in to have a shot. ONU is at the mercy of the committee - they're basically Thomas More from last year. I don't see ONU getting in before Carnegie (who has an edge having beaten John Carroll) or OWU. And based on our projections, ONU finished with a SOS that was 40th out of 41 total Pool C teams, and dead last of teams I thought were realistic Pool C candidates. If they don't get in, that's why.

[PaulNewman]

I'm going out on a limb here, but I think in the end the GL cmte is going to be generous with ONU and also Wabash is going to take the #8 spot giving Oberlin 3 ranked wins.  Both get in.  I think there's a chance CMU/ONU (tied for 2nd in my GL rankings), Oberlin, DPU and OWU all get in and fans from other regions will be howling.  If it's Wabash and not JCU at #8 then CMU might slip towards the back of the pack.  If RHIT holds on the Oberlin probably is the odd team out.

[Domino1195]

Would have loved to travel to PGH this weekend except I have US Mexico tickets on Friday and Calvin won't play on Sunday's , so first round at CMU starts Friday. NCAC - good luck in Lynchburg - I wanted to see a JCU-Kenyon match-up - there's a remote chance but JCU has work to do against the hosts

[midwest]

A parent who doesn't track the nuances of SOS and wins against ranked teams -- so take it with a grain of salt.  That Oberlin team was impressive and much tougher competition for my kid's program than OWU. Learned a long time ago that soccer will break your heart, so no news here.  Just a tough break for that program. 

[PaulNewman]

I don't hate or love Kenyon's draw.  Anytime I don't see OWU in the quadrant I am a little relieved.  Maryville obviously is pretty good with a great record and I would guess Lynchburg has one of the bigger/better home field advantages and draw large crowds.  I think there are issues with the Kenyon field and they likely did not apply to host, as I would assume Kenyon is the #2 seed in the quad behind Rowan (or maybe #3 after Rowan and Trinity).  Anyway, will not be easy to get through the Lynchburg pod and if so 20-1 Trinity could be waiting, only to be followed by Rowan/Tufts/Haverford, UMass-Boston.  Remember that last year Tufts went down to Jersey and pulled out a come from behind win against a loaded MSU squad.  Tufts will look forward to playing Rowan and I would expect that to be a toss up game.  Haverford vs UMass-Boston if it happens would be fascinating as well.

The CMU pod is a great-sounding pod with CMU/OWU, Calvin and ONU.  Those should be great games.  That said, I'm not sure any of those will be able to knock off Messiah if Messiah is alive on the other side.  ONU actually might have the best shot of the four but ONU won't be favored to get by Calvin.  Pittsburgh is a great location for a pod.

And DePauw versus Centre will bring familiar foes together.

Because of their travels and some strong opponents I don't think JCU will be awed going into Lynchburg either.

[Ryan Harmanis]

Great day for the Great Lakes region. This marks the second straight year the GL gets four at-large bids, tied for the most for the second straight year. It's a moot point, but I'm still surprised Carnegie Mellon stayed above OWU given that JCU didn't get in. Aside from that, it makes sense.

Carnegie: 0.765 win%, 1-2-2 RvR, 0.556 SOS
OWU: 0.676 win%, 3-3-1 RvR, 0.567 SOS

midwest - agree that it's a tough break for Oberlin. As we all know, soccer is a tough sport to compare results. Oberlin was very good all year, but lost head-to-head against OWU and ONU by lopsided scores (even if the games may have been closer than that). They also had two shots to beat Kenyon and couldn't. I'm disappointed Oberlin didn't get in, but there's no way to justify them being above OWU/ONU. Carnegie Mellon is actually a closer comparison:

Oberlin: 0.775 win%, 1-4-0 RvR, 0.562 SOS
CMU: 0.765 win%, 1-2-2 RvR, 0.556 SOS

I mentioned this before, but Carnegie Mellon played zero ranked teams from the Great Lakes, and didn't schedule any teams that were realistic threats to be at the top of the region, so they didn't take a chance of being below any of them due to head-to-head come Pool C time. Funny enough, they'll now have to take out at least one (if not two) to get through this weekend.

As for ONU, happy for their players, but that really could have gone either way. The SOS was just so bad. That will be a fascinating game against Calvin, as both teams play the same way - through wingers and cut-backs. ONU is more dynamic going forward, but I think Calvin is better in the back. Turf would normally favor ONU, but Calvin has a lot of team speed.

From OWU's perspective, getting in alone is great. I don't think they'll be favored in any game, but they get a CMU team that is beatable and then two teams that they've already played pretty even. Much better than a trip to Chicago or Carthage IMO, which I thought was possible.

Tougher draw than expected for Kenyon. Maryville is a huge unknown, although the USAC rep got hammered last year in the tournament. The second round is also tough if Lynchburg, although JCU is probably not as bad, at least results/resume-wise. That quadrant is loaded, so should be a lot of good games.