2016 D3 Season: NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

PaulNewman · August 31, 2016, 12:04:47 PM

NCAC NE's Top 15

1) Kenyon (last chance for senior class w/ 2 Sweet 16s and Elite 8; 37-4-3 last 2 years)
2) Amherst (will be tough to knock out especially by November)
3) Loras (among big teams with some rebuild I like Rothert to keep the machine rolling)
4) Oneonta St (major losses but still don't see who is going to stand in their way)
5) Wheaton (Ill) (another team that will handle losses well and reload)
6) Middlebury (deserve high expectations and we'll see if they can finally deliver)
7) Rowan (basically everyone back from stellar season)
8) Montclair St (not so fast, Rowan)
9) Lycoming (huge expectations which could be too much to handle)
10) Haverford (3 key graduations will take some time to overcome)
11) Chicago (watch out for the Maroons)
12) Brandeis (not ready to let go of hard-earned national prominence)
13) Redlands (just a hunch)
14) UW-W (6'8 Stanko didn't graduate)
15) Wash U (West did graduate but he's still there anyway as eligible grad student)

Knocking hard on the door, aka RV -- SLU, Salisbury, Messiah, Macalester, W&L, Trinity (TX), Tex-Dallas, Tufts, F&M, Gordon, OWU, DePauw, Calvin, Colorado, Pac Lutheran, Eastern

PaulNewman · August 31, 2016, 01:15:36 PM

New England

I see Amherst, Middlebury, Brandeis and Tufts as the powerhouses with a full-returning Gordon squad as one to watch. Curious about Williams, Wesleyan, Conn Coll and Bowdoin, as well as who will emerge out of the NEWMAC where there doesn't seem to be an obvious clear favorite. UMass-Boston will have flair but we'll see if substance is there in the end.

East

Will another SUNYAC team challenge Oneonta? I doubt it. SLU will be right there as always. No clue who will shine in the Liberty League beyond SLU but don't see another strong national contender there. Will be interested to see if Rochester rebounds and Stevens usually seems to be in the mix.

Mid-Atlantic

My guess is that Messiah reasserts dominance over the Lycoming juggernaut. I'm sure F&M will contend but don't know if the Dips will be as strong as the past few years. Huge year for the Haverford program of course. I'm leaning towards Dickinson having an off year. Will Eastern and/or E-town prove to be threats?

South Atlantic

I'd really like to see an extra ODAC team get a Pool C and possibly go deep, or a Greensboro. W&L should continue building program momentum. The crystal ball is predicting a down campaign for Christopher Newport. Can Salisbury advance to a Sweet 16? The NJAC will be the usual dogfight with Rowan and Montclair having titanic encounters. I've got no read on whether Emory or Centre might have a good season. Is there a hidden gem out there, like a Birm-Southern or NC Wesleyan?

Great Lakes

Kenyon on paper at least is a clear favorite. OWU may or may not have growing pains, as their schedule looks pretty forgiving (not expecting Calvin to be like last year's version and Roy Rike won't be an easy first visit for W&L), but they'll be formidable for crunch time. Thomas More should remain competitive but I'm not expecting them to present the threat posed the last two seasons. Is a team like Grove City poised to emerge? The OAC should be very competitive at the top end with John Carroll, Ohio Northern and Capital. As noted elsewhere, even though CWRU is a program to watch over the next several years I don't see how they can prevail this year with such a brutal schedule especially losing Cvecko. Carnegie Mellon is a better UAA bet in Great Lakes.

Central

Calvin should again dominate their league but I don't see a repeat of last year's near perfection. I would favor Wheaton, Chicago and Wash U over the Knights. I don't know this region well enough to suggest a surprise squad.

North

Loras should be King again. The early schedule doesn't look that tough by Loras standards, which will give Rothert time to figure out who will step into roles opened up by graduation. Alex Bradley could be a national POY candidate. Macalester and UW-W should match or exceed their fine seasons last year. Last year's tourney surprise St. Olaf suffered major losses to graduation.

West

I wouldn't bet the house on Trinity (TX) being as dominant, but then again, they always seem to finish in the top 10 nationally. I expect a dip at Whitworth but certainly the Pirates will have a good shot to defend their conference crown with few true challengers. We'll see if Pac Lutheran can be a threat again. I'm loving Redlands, and I've got an eye on Texas-Dallas, Texas-Tyler and of course Colorado College.

KICKIN95 · September 02, 2016, 11:15:31 AM

Loras should be King again. The early schedule doesn't look that tough by Loras standards, which will give Rothert time to figure out who will step into roles opened up by graduation. Alex Bradley could be a national POY candidate. Macalester and UW-W should match or exceed their fine seasons last year. Last year's tourney surprise St. Olaf suffered major losses to graduation.

I'll probably get roasted for this, but I know for a first hand fact of one game that Loras usually has on their schedule and asked for again this year was declined because the opposing coach said (paraphrasing) "We don't have the talent this year and wouldn't be competitive". Good news is that team did beat a team from Texas 3-2 last night so they are doing pretty well.

PaulNewman · September 02, 2016, 04:48:28 PM

Love ya Kickin, always keeping it real.

Loras' toughest games appear to be Carthage, UWW, and maybe St John's? And perhaps a revitalized Wartburg?

I checked into Wheaton's live stats and saw a lot of familiar names. No tears needed for the Thunder. In fairness, their first 6 opponents all appear decent to very good.

PaulNewman · September 03, 2016, 11:59:37 AM

Can we get a refresh on the D3 scoreboard? Stops at 4:00 games today and have to scroll thru from Thursday action.

PaulNewman · September 03, 2016, 12:39:27 PM

Good video at Rowan where Profs up 1-0 on W&L 1st half.

KICKIN95 · September 03, 2016, 12:48:10 PM

Quote from: NCAC New England on September 02, 2016, 04:48:28 PM
Love ya Kickin, always keeping it real.

Loras' toughest games appear to be Carthage, UWW, and maybe St John's? And perhaps a revitalized Wartburg?

I checked into Wheaton's live stats and saw a lot of familiar names. No tears needed for the Thunder. In fairness, their first 6 opponents all appear decent to very good.

I guess he thought 6-0 is better than 5-1

PaulNewman · September 03, 2016, 02:47:16 PM

I guess he thought 6-0 is better than 5-1

[/quote]

Or 4-2.

PaulNewman · September 03, 2016, 09:22:51 PM

Calvin-OWU a good, high quality game. OWU wins 2-0 (2-1, Calvin goal, actually a nice goal with 1 sec left). Could have been a draw or 1-0 either way. Thought Calvin thoroughly dominated first half and OWU must have gotten a talking to. OWU much better and probably better for the half than Calvin, although half-chances both ways. OWU scored on a nice but long free kick that Calvin GK probably misplayed by coming out and then OWU was gifted with a very unforced handball for PK (right call but bad error for Calvin). I was wrong about Calvin. They look very, very good again and easily in the Sweet 16 to Elite 8 range. OWU is very talented and the frosh are impressive (in numbers and impact). They stayed in the game long enough to become competitive in it, and then they looked like equal competitors with an excellent team after the first half. Will be interesting to see how chemistry issues evolve with so many freshmen having large roles.

Kudos to Rowan, E'town and Chicago for great starts. Messiah had a good road trip despite the draw. Looking forward to Haverford-Brandeis.

Ommadawn · September 03, 2016, 09:32:50 PM

Quote from: NCAC New England on September 03, 2016, 09:22:51 PMKudos to Rowan, E'town and Chicago for great starts. Messiah had a good road trip despite the draw. Looking forward to Haverford-Brandeis.

Also of note is Carthage's 3-0 Eastern road trip, with come-from-behind wins against Endicott (won going away in the second half) and Gordon (won in 2OT). Ditto on Haverford-Brandeis!

SuperSub15 · September 03, 2016, 09:34:24 PM

Carthage goes 3-0 back to back to back. CCNY, Endicott, Gordon. All while scoring 12 goals in 3 games. I may be biased but it is never easy to play 3 days in a row. Congrats

PaulNewman · September 03, 2016, 09:38:06 PM

Quote from: Ommadawn on September 03, 2016, 09:32:50 PM
Quote from: NCAC New England on September 03, 2016, 09:22:51 PMKudos to Rowan, E'town and Chicago for great starts. Messiah had a good road trip despite the draw. Looking forward to Haverford-Brandeis.

Also of note is Carthage's 3-0 Eastern road trip, with come-from-behind wins against Endicott (won going away in the second half) and Gordon (won in 2OT). Ditto on Haverford-Brandeis!

Ype, just saw that. Big for Carthage.

Emory and Texas-Tyler locked up in a shootout 4-4 going into 2nd OT. Emory was up 3-0 at half.

Also forgot to mention how good of a player that Vegter kid is.

PaulNewman · September 03, 2016, 09:46:59 PM

And Tex-Tyler takes it 5-4 at 104:59. Goal by Tchitembo from Fernandes.

Domino1195 · September 03, 2016, 11:43:21 PM

Quote from: NCAC New England on September 03, 2016, 09:22:51 PM
Calvin-OWU a good, high quality game. OWU wins 2-0 (2-1, Calvin goal, actually a nice goal with 1 sec left). Could have been a draw or 1-0 either way. Thought Calvin thoroughly dominated first half and OWU must have gotten a talking to. OWU much better and probably better for the half than Calvin, although half-chances both ways. OWU scored on a nice but long free kick that Calvin GK probably misplayed by coming out and then OWU was gifted with a very unforced handball for PK (right call but bad error for Calvin). I was wrong about Calvin. They look very, very good again and easily in the Sweet 16 to Elite 8 range. OWU is very talented and the frosh are impressive (in numbers and impact). They stayed in the game long enough to become competitive in it, and then they looked like equal competitors with an excellent team after the first half. Will be interesting to see how chemistry issues evolve with so many freshmen having large roles.

Kudos to Rowan, E'town and Chicago for great starts. Messiah had a good road trip despite the draw. Looking forward to Haverford-Brandeis.

At times OWU had 7 freshman on the field in the first half. I left at half but Calvin was the better team: a OWU parent said they are a good collection of players - not yet a team. A fair assessment. They aren't a big team - and they played very direct first half. They held on to, and dribbled too much; they turned into pressure when they had simple and wide open drop balls (play in the direction - anyone, anyone, Buehler?, Buehler?). Jay will fix that.

Calvin - I love Isky. If he gets on the ball that team is dangerous. Mitch Stark didn't get as many opportunities to go at defenders as he did the game before - but they will be fine.

All things considered - I liked Thomas More's potential the best these first three days - Great Lakes perspective. Chicago IS the real deal - not in the Great Lakes but a top 5 team by mid Sept - if not sooner.

PaulNewman · September 04, 2016, 10:56:42 AM

Fantastic slate of games to close this first weekend...

Oneonta St-W&L

CWRU-Thomas More

Lycoming-F&M

Rutgers-Newark-Wheaton (MA)

Haverford- Brandeis

Lost amid the onslaught of games Christopher Newport scored a touchdown in first tilt and should roll against Allegheny. MIT got a big road win at Stevens that will come in handy down the line. Macalester and UWW played to a draw with my guy Stanko getting the equalizer. Would love to see Stanko go head to head with Gulley at Wheaton (Ill).

After profiling the Keuka (school and soccer program) I'm interested to see if the Wolves (previously Wolfpack) can hang with a name-brand program like Rochester. Why in the heck would a school like NC State care what a tiny D3 does with its nickname?