2016 D3 Season: NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

[backyarddawg]

How does Amherst drop from the #1 ranking after going on the road and tying a top 25 team in Middlebury?  Stats Amherst 16 shots/9 CK vs Midd 11 shots/4 CK.

This is what's wrong with D3 we move the defending champs for what reason?  Did they lose?  Am I missing something?  I would put my money on Amherst to beat every team that moved above them.  I use to enjoy D3 top 25 but starting to think it is just like NSCAA a waste of time.

Also anyone that says Rowan has had the toughest schedule I don't agree with.  They played one tough road game at Lyco.  Everything else is at home which if they are as good as everyone says, they should win.  Within the next 2 weeks Amherst will have played as many if not harder games then Rowan has (@ Bowdoin, @ Midd, vs Williams, @ MIT, @ Tufts).

Give the champs some respect until beaten they should not be dethroned.

[jknezek]

So you just ignore the blemish because they won last year? That doesn't seem right. If they were expected to win, and didn't, then they drop provided other teams did what they were supposed to do against quality opposition. It makes no sense to freeze a team in place based on last year. You go by results this year. And their result wasn't bad of course, but it wasn't what was expected of the No. 1 team.

It's not like they fell off a cliff. They dropped to third because in 4 games they took a blemish whereas in 7 games against good competition Rowan has not taken a blemish. I get road versus home, but still, there aren't too many polls in any sport where the No 1 team can lose or tie and hold off the dogs from below. Amherst will have plenty of chances to regain that top spot. As you pointed out they have a good schedule in the next 2 weeks. But Rowan has already played and won against good teams, Amherst doesn't get credit for games that they have yet to play and win, especially when they went to a good opponent and didn't win.

And if all that doesn't sway you, think about this. Rowan has a win against #9 W&L. I get it was at home, but that's a better result, right now, than a tie away against Middlebury. So no blemishes, a better signature win, and more games played. Hard to get too hot under the collar objectively.

[PaulNewman]

So you just ignore the blemish because they won last year? That doesn't seem right. If they were expected to win, and didn't, then they drop provided other teams did what they were supposed to do against quality opposition. It makes no sense to freeze a team in place based on last year. You go by results this year. And their result wasn't bad of course, but it wasn't what was expected of the No. 1 team.

It's not like they fell off a cliff. They dropped to third because in 4 games they took a blemish whereas in 7 games against good competition Rowan has not taken a blemish. I get road versus home, but still, there aren't too many polls in any sport where the No 1 team can lose or tie and hold off the dogs from below. Amherst will have plenty of chances to regain that top spot. As you pointed out they have a good schedule in the next 2 weeks. But Rowan has already played and won against good teams, Amherst doesn't get credit for games that they have yet to play and win, especially when they went to a good opponent and didn't win.

And if all that doesn't sway you, think about this. Rowan has a win against #9 W&L. I get it was at home, but that's a better result, right now, than a tie away against Middlebury. So no blemishes, a better signature win, and more games played. Hard to get too hot under the collar objectively.

Agreed.  This isn't a royalty thing.  And believing that Amherst would beat the teams (all two of them) above them isn't determinative either.  That's not how it works.  I bet many of us believe that Haverford, Oneonta and Tufts would beat a bunch of teams ranked ahead of them currently, but that doesn't mean those teams based on results thus far should be ranked ahead of those teams at this juncture. 

The back end of Rowan's schedule so far isn't as tough as I remembered but 3 consecutive wins over Lycoming, W&L and Oneonta is impressive.  If there is a team that's being underrated so far it's Chicago which has remained unblemished against an even tougher overall schedule.

Finally, you certainly can argue that Amherst should still be #1 but to link dropping all the way down to #3 based on "disrespect" frankly strikes me as bizarre.  Attention to the NESCAC dominates the site.  But maybe Amherst can turn this disrespect against them into motivation to run the table and win another national title.

[blooter442]

Perhaps if Amherst stayed perfect - that is, unbeaten and untied - then they should've kept the top spot (and even that I have problems with) but to suggest that Rowan is not deserving simply because they've played those games at home is leaning very heavily on the belief that "home turf" is a distinct advantage. When you see how many battles between true powerhouses have been won by the away team in recent years (Oneonta @ Haverford last year, Williams @ Amherst in '13 and '14, etc.) perhaps suggests that the advantage of home field is not as great as the difference between the home and away multipliers (0.85 vs. 1.25 IIRC) makes it out to be.

[lastguyoffthebench]

Just playing devil's advocate here:

MASSEY:

1) Amherst  SOS 10
2) Chicago   SOS 22
3) Trinity     SOS 33
4) Rowan     SOS 39
5) Kenyon    SOS 90

[PaulNewman]

Just playing devil's advocate here:

MASSEY:

1) Amherst  SOS 10
2) Chicago   SOS 22
3) Trinity     SOS 33
4) Rowan     SOS 39
5) Kenyon    SOS 90

Are those supposed to reflect schedule to date or schedule for the whole season?

Can't get my head around how RIC, Bowdoin, Midd and Pine Manor (followed by Mt. Ida) = SOS at #10.

[Toure87]

NCAC, yes. Wheaton is still not close to full health. Danny Brandt has only played 1.5 games this season due to injury. Ben Bakke, a big time player who originally came from Creighton, is also hurt. 4 year starter Reed Bartley has played only 2 games as well. Jaxon Hulse, a sophomore starter, has also been missing games. Max Carey has also been in and out of games. If they can't get healthy by conference play, they are in trouble. Wheaton certainly needs to win their conference to get into NCAA's.

[jknezek]

Just playing devil's advocate here:

MASSEY:

1) Amherst  SOS 10
2) Chicago   SOS 22
3) Trinity     SOS 33
4) Rowan     SOS 39
5) Kenyon    SOS 90

Yes. But Amherst also played only 4 games. If you look at Rowan's first 4 games, they played a Massey team average of 503 versus Amherst's average of 595. Now that's straight up, not accounting for home/away. But, Rowan's first 4 games were a tougher gauntlet, according to Massey, strictly by opponent. Then it falls off for Rowan, as they drop to a 708 average over 7 games.

Not entirely sure how much difference the home/away makes in Massey's formula, too lazy to see if he says, but applying the NCAA multiples you'd end up with Amherst = 595/1.25 476 (all road) and Rowan with a 453 (Lyco and Staten Island on the road, W&L and Oneonta St at home). So by that measure you'd say Rowan had it marginally tougher and didn't take a blemish.

Going forward it won't be hard for Amherst to catch up, as their schedule games 5,6, and 7 are much tougher than Rowan's were. But games 8-14 for Rowan are significantly harder than 8-14 for Amherst as Massey currently calculates.

Regardless, if Rowan keeps winning they should keep that 1 spot. If they accumulate a blemish, it will depend on what teams around them do, but you can't say Rowan hasn't fought for that spot and played quality opponents. If you are an Amherst fan and don't like that your team isn't 1, the simply solution is not to get a blemish...

[lastguyoffthebench]

Rowan at 8th for NSCAA...   Behind Macalester

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

 

[Flying Weasel]

Ohh boy, looks like the NSCAA broke the rules and dropped a defending champs from the #1 spot before they lost a game!  How dare they!

[Shooter McGavin]

Messiah quietly sitting at 5-0-2. Playing well at home as usual but struggling in their few road tests so far. The next 6 games will make or break their season in terms of at-large bid potential. I think they will end up 3-1-2 during that stretch, which isn't great but isn't horrible either. 4/6 are on the road. Losses and ties to Etown, Wash Lee, and Lycoming. Wins vs Misericordia, Leb Val, and Alvernia. If the Falcons can continue growing their confidence and get through this stretch at say 4-0-2 or 4-1-1 watch out!! Realistically I think Messiah will end up 13-1-4 or 13-2-3 and have no problem getting an at-large bid if needed.

[PaulNewman]

Don't know if this is a function of catching some broadcasts from certain schools for the first time, but in general (because there are exceptions in the negative direction) video streams, production, and commentary appear to be getting better and better.

Plattsburgh is with NSN (as is much of the NESCAC) and the quality of video and commentary were very good.  Only downside was camera angle from a corner and through netting.

Then caught tail end of Concordia (Wis) versus Elmhurst and Elmhurst also had very good commentary and replays.  Good win for Concordia, btw.

Tough loss for Plattsburgh after reversing momentum in 2nd half and dominating SLU for long stretches.

[PaulNewman]

That Rowan goal to equalize with F&M will stand as goal of the year.  Wow.  And F&M's actually was pretty good as well.

[rudy]

Messiah quietly sitting at 5-0-2. Playing well at home as usual but struggling in their few road tests so far. The next 6 games will make or break their season in terms of at-large bid potential. I think they will end up 3-1-2 during that stretch, which isn't great but isn't horrible either. 4/6 are on the road. Losses and ties to Etown, Wash Lee, and Lycoming. Wins vs Misericordia, Leb Val, and Alvernia. If the Falcons can continue growing their confidence and get through this stretch at say 4-0-2 or 4-1-1 watch out!! Realistically I think Messiah will end up 13-1-4 or 13-2-3 and have no problem getting an at-large bid if needed.

Misericordia is by no means an easy game for Messiah.  They do not have a loss at home (4-0) and beat York and RC in  last 2 home games.  They have to play well to beat them.  Could be a tie as well.