2016 D3 Season: NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

[PaulNewman]

Maryville (17-2) sweats out a 2OT win over Methodist to stay alive.  NC Wesleyan in the final.

Centre moves on past Oglethorpe..

[Flying Weasel]

In a year in which numerous traditional and recent heavyweights (highlighted by Ohio Wesleyan, St. Lawrence, Tufts) have been picking up more than the usual number of blemishes, no one has been talking about Stevens whose 5 losses is their most in 15 years (2001).  And they just crashed out of the Empire 8 tournament with a semifinal elimination in a PK shootout versus St. John Fisher.  And unlike the aforementioned teams which stand a decent shot of getting at-large berths,  Stevens season is certainly over as they have not been ranked regionally owing to those 5 losses and no wins versus ranked teams (a 0-3-1 RvR).  First time not winning the Empire 8 since they joined for the 2007 and first time missing the NCAA tournament in 14 years (2002) as they have won their conference and the AQ every year from 2003 through last year, initially in the Skyline.

[PaulNewman]

Question for FW, RH, etc...

Will the final RvR used for selections rely on who was ranked in Week 3 or do they go by their last and final Week 4 rankings?

As examples, Wentworth and JCU aren't ranked in Week 3.  If either or both win their conference finals seems possible one or both could get ranked in the final ranking, which of course could impact opponents of those teams under Pool C consideration IF the cmtes go by the final regional rankings.

I see the article about how field is determined suggests the Week 3 rankings are the basis for the final RvR tallies.  Is that correct or am I reading wrong?  I'm having a brain freeze about why they wouldn't base RvR on the final, final rankings.

Here's the exact language, which I interpret as meaning RvR gets determined based on Week 4 instead of Week 3 rankings...

Results versus ranked Division III teams as established by the rankings at the time of selection. Conference postseason
contests are included;

[Mr.Right]

In a year in which numerous traditional and recent heavyweights (highlighted by Ohio Wesleyan, St. Lawrence, Tufts) have been picking up more than the usual number of blemishes, no one has been talking about Stevens whose 5 losses is their most in 15 years (2001).  And they just crashed out of the Empire 8 tournament with a semifinal elimination in a PK shootout versus St. John Fisher.  And unlike the aforementioned teams which stand a decent shot of getting at-large berths,  Stevens season is certainly over as they have not been ranked regionally owing to those 5 losses and no wins versus ranked teams (a 0-3-1 RvR).  First time not winning the Empire 8 since they joined for the 2007 and first time missing the NCAA tournament in 14 years (2002) as they have won their conference and the AQ every year from 2003 through last year, initially in the Skyline.

I never saw Stevens this season but this a shock for sure. St.John Fischer is known to be a Football school and also a little surprised Ithaca lost to Houghton. Stevens has never really been the same since Tim O'Donohue left the program to go to UCONN as an assistant and now is Navy Men's Soccer Coach

[Golden_Fan]

Cortland takes down Oneonta 1-0

[firstplaceloser]

Cortland takes down Oneonta 1-0

oneonta has had one of their worst seasons in the last 5-6 years!

[dontshootthegoose]

Loras currently down 0-3 at half to a very talented Luther side.

Loras will be grabbing a Pool C.

[KICKIN95]

Loras loses a close one 4-3. They made it very interesting at the end.  Had 2off the underside if the bar and an absolute sitter.

[PaulNewman]

Pool C pre-analysis analysis....

Going to be a lot of hair-splitting.  Strange year.  Even when teams have been deemed locks (and likely still are) we see some still make things more interesting (Babson, Brandeis, probably Oneonta).

We're waiting on Amherst and Trinity to see if they get their AQs, but there could be a wrinkle thrown in there.  Beyond that, I'm seeing Rowan, RUN, Brandeis, Babson, F&M/Haverford loser (although Haverford might sweat a little), the W&L/Lynchburg loser (although Lynchburg may sweat a little), Rochester is now likely with a 4-3-1 RvR and a jump over Oneonta likely, and I think E'town gets in this year.

The huge questions are what will happen with the New England and Great Lakes logjams.  I don't how in the world they can decide between Tufts, Midd and Bowdoin (which means maybe all 3 will get in).  For me, Wheaton (MA) is a real darkhorse with a loss today as they would be at 11-7-2 but with a good SOS and RvR of 4-1.  RIC looks to be in trouble.  Similarly, not sure how ONU, CMU, DPU, OWU and Oberlin are going to play out although the things look tough for an Oberlin team that out that group probably had the best season after ONU.

Elsewhere, Emory and Wash U are shaky on RvR.  Oneonta drops to 3-5 on RvR (and to 2-3 if New Paltz and Fredonia are removed).  Loras has no ranked wins unless Luther comes back in but that cuts both ways and would make Loras 1-5 on RvR instead of 0-4.  Will there be any hidden reputation boosts on the last couple of spots?  SLU is hard to evaluate (but on what basis could Loras for example be picked over SLU?), and I wouldn't be shocked if Hobart actually gets some strong consideration.  Macalester has no ranked wins.  Chapman has just 1 ranked win unless Redlands comes back in which would get Chapman to 2-2.  Texas-Dallas doesn't have a ranked win.  And Colorado doesn't have a ranked win, so they will certainly leave it all out there today with Trinity.  Hopkins and Kean may even get a look.

Bottom line.  More New England and Great Lakes teams are going to get in than most of us are expecting.

[PaulNewman]

NCAC NE's Pool C Predictions/Selections -- Rowan, Rutgers-Newark, Haverford/F&M, W&L/Lynchburg, Babson, Brandeis, Rochester, SLU, Oneonta, Ohio Northern, Carnegie Mellon, DePauw, OWU, Middlebury, Bowdoin, Tufts, Elizabethtown

2 spots left (choose 2) -- RIC, Wheaton (MA), Hobart, Emory, Johns Hopkins, Oberlin, Wash U, Loras, Macalester, Chapman, Colorado Coll

Probably won't play out this way, but I would probably pick Oberlin and Wheaton (MA) (if loses today) OR Chapman.  Pressure for regional diversity favors Wash U and a team from the North or West.

[Mr.Right]

I really think Middlebury and Ohio Northern are in trouble. Ohio Northern's SOS is so weak in RvR not good especially if John Carrol is ranked like you project. I think RIC is in trouble as well but Wash U I think is a lock. Bowdoin is done after their loss to Amherst which is unfortunate because they had a 1-0 lead with 10 minutes left and a win would have been enough IMO. Bowdoin self-destructed in the last 10 minutes.

[PaulNewman]

I really think Middlebury and Ohio Northern are in trouble. Ohio Northern's SOS is so weak in RvR not good especially if John Carrol is ranked like you project. I think RIC is in trouble as well but Wash U I think is a lock.

I thought that too until I tried to pick 19 teams.  It's a VERY weak year.  And Wash U only has like 1 ranked win.  ONU's SOS should go to .530+ and I think will be 1-0-3 on RvR if JCU moves in. 17-1-4 stands out like a sore thumb among a ton of 7-9 blemish teams.

[Mr.Right]

I really think Middlebury and Ohio Northern are in trouble. Ohio Northern's SOS is so weak in RvR not good especially if John Carrol is ranked like you project. I think RIC is in trouble as well but Wash U I think is a lock.

I thought that too until I tried to pick 19 teams.  It's a VERY weak year.  And Wash U only has like 1 ranked win.  ONU's SOS should go to .530+ and I think will be 1-0-3 on RvR if JCU moves in. 17-1-4 stands out like a sore thumb among a ton of 7-9 blemish teams.

I agree that the eye test tells me ONU is a very good team and deserves to be in but I am not sure there SOS moves all the way up to .530. They could be the ETOWN if last year.

[Mr.Right]

After looking at Wash U's schedule you may be correct. They did not beat to many top UAA schools and out of conference schools that they played. However, that draw last night with Chicago might help and now the 4-0 win over Luther might also look very good right now but after looking at their schedule you are correct they are on the BUBBLE

[PaulNewman]

After looking at Wash U's schedule you may be correct. They did not beat to many top UAA schools and out of conference schools that they played. However, that draw last night with Chicago might help and now the 4-0 win over Luther might also look very good right now but after looking at their schedule you are correct they are on the BUBBLE

Haha. I was just gonna say I think you're correct.  Wash U is right now 1-4-2 on RvR.  IF Dominican stays ranked and Luther comes back in the the best scenario is 2-4-2, but mostly like Dominican goes out and Luther comes in and so stays at 1-4-2...BUT, there are literally no other teams really to pick in the Central, North and West and I can't see all of those regions just getting shut out.

I will say this...I'll be shocked in Wash U and Emory BOTH get in.  Emory has a great SOS, 10-5-1 record and a RvR of 1-3-1....very similar to Wash U....and sort of like trying to pick between Tufts, Midd and Bowdoin (where I'm picking all 3 of those NESCACs to get in unless they shade RIC over one of them but I don't know how).