2016 D3 Season: NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

As real as Rowan proved after beating F&M this past week. Rose-Hulman is a big test and if they get a good result then I think you will see less doubters and more respect, which they should already have IMO.

[Shooter McGavin]

Blockbuster Weekend Match-Ups

Friday-9/23

#13 Carnegie Mellon@Grove City-----If GC wants any chance at an at-large bid they need a convincing win tonight
Cortland St@Oneonta St-------------Huge implications in this clash. Can Cortland get a signature win over a clicking Oneonta?


Saturday-9/24

Williams@ #3 Amherst-----------------Game of the day? Big road test for Williams and they need a result to be taken seriously.
Rose-Hulman@ #5 Chicago-----------This will prove if Chicago is for real.
York@ #12 Christopher Newport------CAC conference play begins and CNU needs a win in this game or they are facing similar consequences from last season.
Tufts@ #14 Brandeis------------------Another possible game of the day? Jumbos need a result.
RI College@ #16 UMASS-Boston-----Flying under the radar but both teams off to great starts!
Bowdoin@ #20 Middlebury-----------Gotta love the NESCAC match-ups!!
#22 Messiah@Misericordia-----------Misericordia w/some big results as of late and Messiah's road struggles make this a little closer than once thought.
#24 Plattsburgh St@Potsdam St-----Battle of 1 loss teams with big conference implications on the line.
#25 Loras@Nebraska Wesleyan------Loras is in a downward spiral and might get tripped up once again by a stingy NW.
DePauw@Oberlin---------------------A big 3 game stretch starts for DePauw and this will be the easiest of the 3 for them.
Case Western@Lycoming------------Possibly the biggest game for two non-ranked opponents. It's make or break for both teams at this point.
Keuka@Morrisville St-------------------Winner wins the NEAC? Time will tell but this is a big one for both teams.
Swarthmore@Hopkins-----------------Centennial jostling starts for both teams in this cricital battle.
Rochester@RPI-----------------------A win for UR would almost guarantee a top 25 ranking in the next poll and an at-large bid would be in sights.
Eastern@Cabrini----------------------After not playing last season the rivalry is back!! Big game for Eastern to stay on pace in the region.
Camden@Montclair St----------------Big time game in the NJAC!!
Kean@Newark------------------------Playoff positioning on the line for these two teams with combined records of 15-3 this season!



Top 5 Games of the Weekend
1. Williams@Amherst
2. Tufts@Brandeis
3. Camden@Montclair
4. Rose-Hulman@Chicago
5. Bowdoin@Middlebury

Honorable Mention: Eastern@Cabrini(Rivalry), Swat@JHU, CWR@Lyco, and Kean@RUN

Chicago is 8-0 with ONE goal against, a schedule not filled with cupcakes. How much "realer" to they have to get?

I am intrigued to see how Chicago handles their UAA schedule. If they survive that then I will be a believer but beating a subpar Wheaton team doesn't make them "real" to me yet. Sure they didn't play cupcakes but they also didn't play multiple nationally ranked teams like others have this season.

[PaulNewman]

Trending Review

The camera is beginning to focus...

Rowan and Chicago have separated just a bit with outstanding and consistent play while a pack of 4-5 runners are still easily within striking distance.  And here comes Oneonta roaring back after the overreaction to two initial one-goal losses to the #1 ranked team in the country and another top 10-15 squad (W&L).

The disappointing trends are perhaps the easiest to identify.  Thomas More has lost 4 out of 5, although in fairness one loss was to D1 Cincinnati in a game that was only 1-0 into the last minute and none of the other losses were big surprises except for perhaps the last one to still undefeated Transy.  After a 4-0 start Rose Hulman has now lost 4 straight.  Sewanee opened 4-0 and is now 4-3-1.  York (PA) has lost 4 straight after a strong beginning.  Apparent powerhouses just a while ago, Redlands and Christopher Newport have lost 2 each inside of a week.  RPI has lost 3 in a row, albeit all away to Oneonta, Potsdam and Williams.  John Carroll looked promising early but has now stumbled to 3-3-1 after a key loss at home to CWRU.  You may recall JCU getting snubbed a couple of years ago with a 17-4 ledger, and pumping up the SoS only works with relative success.  Wheaton (Ill) is a stunning 1-4-3.  I still wouldn't count the Thunder out as they have just as good a chance as anyone in the CCIW to get the conference AQ, especially if they get some injured players back on the pitch, but a Pool C is probably already off the table.  Babson is a very mediocre 3-4-1, taking on more water right after clipping Brandeis.  Highly touted Loras has lost 2 straight, and somewhat touted UWW has failed to impress sitting at 3-2-2.

On the more positive end of the spectrum, we've seen historical powerhouses Messiah and Williams start with real promise instilling hope in their faithful.  Calvin has stormed back after a loss to OWU.  Then there are some less heralded teams trying hard to make noise.  Ramapo is 7-0 and could be 9-0 heading into a match with Rutgers-Camden.  Capital has won 6 in a row and will get a chance to impress more nationally with OWU visiting.  Oberlin is 6-1, although one wonders if a 4-3 win over Baldwin-Wallace where the Yeomen were outshot 25-10 foretells troubles ahead.  St Thomas stands at 6-0-2 and hopes to challenge also undefeated Macalester.  Emory has scratched back to 5-2 after 3 wins in a row.  Gettysburg is 4-1-1 and Johns Hopkins is 5-1-2.  Lynchburg is an impressive 5-0-2 and coming off a valuable win over CNU.  Scranton and E'town are both 5-1, and Eastern is 5-1-1 with an overlooked key win over Salisbury.  Carthage has been a little all over the map but clearly are a dangerous outfit going forward.  Gordon is putting together a pretty good resume.  Keep an eye on Concordia(Wis) and Concordia (TX) had won 6 straight until an OT defeat by Texas-Dallas.  Grove City's win over CMU today will reaffirm supporters and leave doubters wanting more.  Same with Transy at 5-0-2 after a nice victory over Thomas More.  Endicott was impressing but the loss to Trinity (CT) could prove deadly.

In the treading water but still dangerous category are Brandeis, Montclair, Haverford, Lycoming and Tufts.  If any of them put together a nice 5-6 game win streak they will find themselves fully back on the radar.  Also will be interesting to see how Plattsburgh and Cortland rebound from losses.

In the raising eyebrows but still more data needed category I would put Wash U at 4-0, Rochester at 6-0 and Kean at 8-1 (only loss on opening day away to Rochester). 

[PaulNewman]

My take on the weekend...

Williams@Amherst and Bowdoin@Midd are definitely two to watch but may be a bit overhyped.  Williams is going to be fine but those wishing for Williams to be on even terms with Amherst I think are a bit premature.  I see Amherst winning at home 2-0.  The Ephs will have a better chance if the meet later down the road.   It's also time for Middlebury to have an impressive win.  Bowdoin just tied a Bates team that was outshot by Tufts 85-3 or something like that.  Anything less than a 2-0 Midd win would be disappointing from my vantage point.

The best games of the day are the ones with big names that already have blemishes and are fighting for viability as Pool Cs.  That means Tufts@Brandeis, RUC@Montclair, Kean@RUN, and maybe CWRU@Lycoming (although CWRU will need more than this game).   Plattsburgh really needs to beat Potsdam but Potsdam has real life as well so that makes for a compelling matchup.  And Cortland cannot afford to lose to an underappreciated New Paltz team (4-0-4).  Also in the SUNYAC a vibrant Fredonia St at 6-1-1 looks to stay in the upper half facing Geneseo.  DePauw@Oberlin is a huge Great Lakes and NCAC game, and they have some history.  An Oberlin win at DePauw in 2013 probably put Oberlin in as a Pool C and left DePauw out.  They have played very tight games the last couple of years.  Oberlin hasn't generated any real confidence in them thus far and a win over DePauw would certainly help.  Then there are the in-conference games among key foes who maybe already are out for Pool Cs but need to secure conference playoff spots.  It's hard to get excited about Liberty League (other than SLU) and NEWMAC games, but tomorrow brings conference tourney-like tilts with WPI@Wheaton(MA) and Babson@MIT.  Meanwhile, Coast Guard should challenge unblemished Clark.  Hobart gets a shot at SLU while Vassar travels to downtrodden Skidmore.  Rochester@RPI could be a good one, but probably won't be.  Swarthmore@JHU is in same mold...a key conference matchup in the race to secure a conference tourney slot.  Same story with MSOE@Concrodia(Wis). 

Interesting "can they bounce back" games involve CNU hosting York, Centre entertaining Oglethorphe and E'town hosting Drew.  Randolph also will look to avoid a damaging loss the VA Wesleyan.  St. Mary's@PS-Harrisburg is a key CAC contest. 

Capital@Thomas More has some compelling storylines with Capital's win streak and TMC's swoon, but watching a game on a turf football field is painful (unless it's the Rock Bowl).  And the poor video doesn't help.  Wesleyan really needs to beat Bates, and Conn Coll@Hamilton could end up being the best NESCAC game of the day.  St Thomas needs to beat GAC at home.

I think Rose Hulman@Chicago will be mildly interesting for a half but I'm expecting at least a 3 goals win for the Maroons.  I also don't see Messiah slipping up at Misericordia.

Sunday doesn't offer much, but after today Carnegie Mellon is facing a real dilemma on the road against a desperate John Carroll.  The Tartans could drop two in a row leaving little room for more than a couple of blemishes in UAA play.

Williams@Bates could be tricky for the Ephs especially if they expend a ton of emotional energy at Amherst.  Same kind of deal with Conn Coll traveling all the way back from Hamilton to host Colby. 

[PaulNewman]

As we catch our breaths before the evening session....

What the heck is the deal with Clark?  8-0 after beating Coast Guard 2-0.  Sure, there are some tougher NEWMAC battles ahead, but still, who thought we'd be referring to 8-0 Clark?  New recruits?  Transfers?  What?

I'm watching Centre do just what I've seen before.  After looking like a viable NCAA candidate in the pre-conference phase a few weeks later they're 2-3-2 in the SAA.  Going into 2nd OT with 0-4-2 Oglethorphe.  Now Oglethorpe is getting a PK.  Petrels win....after outshooting Centre by a large margin.  Just don't get it.

In the NESCAC Middlebury survives Bowdoin 2-1 in OT on a PK as well.  Hamilton beats a Devlin-less Conn Coll 1-0.  Amherst squanders a 2-0 lead to Williams but rebounds to win 4-2.  Colby, after the ref gives them a second throw-in attempt with under a minute left in the 2nd OT beats Trinity at Trinity.  Bates surprisingly handles Wesleyan with apparent ease 2-0.

In the NEWMAC in two key battles the road team wins....WPI over Wheaton (MA) and Babson over MIT. 

In SUNYAC action Fredonia St gets rudely brought back to earth with a 6-1 drubbing by Geneseo.  Cortland sneaks by New Paltz 1-0, Oneonta crushes Oswego, and Plattsburgh gets a big bounceback win over Potsdam.

Ramapo's dream season stutters with a 1-1 draw with Stockton.

In some of the biggest news of the day Hobart shocks SLU at SLU 1-0.  In other LL action we had a pair of draws -- Vassar@ Skidmore and RIT@ Clarkson.

Tough-to-figure Oberlin gets a vital NCAC win at home over DePauw.

And Lycoming wins 1-0 over CWRU in a game Lycoming outshoots the Spartans 19-2.

E'town and Drew are 0-0 late.

[rudy]

Lebanon Valley beat Misericordia 4-0. I would think Messiah could have a similar result.

That was away game and early. Not sure if misericordia had injuries or what...but last 2 home games show something. Wouldn't mind 4-0 win but not taking them for granted.  Interesting to see Lynchburg beat Christopher Newport 2-1. Messiah tied Lynchburg early in the year 0-0 but thoroughly dominated them. Huge advantage in shots, possession, etc. I thought Lynchburg was not as good as Roanoke that weekend and just packed it in to get the draw. Now they beat a supposed top 10 team who will likely drop some spots after this loss

Exactly as I predicted...Messiah and Misericordia ends in 1-1 tie.  Messiah struggling to win games on the road on turf fields.  They were very close to getting the winner but just could not put one away.   Of this were a home game I have no doubt they would have won.

[PaulNewman]

Chicago scores twice in first 22 or so minutes and coasts over Rose-Hulman.  Shots 18 to 1.  Corners 10 to 2.

Decided to check in on the unblemished Millikin Big Blue.  Already down 5-0 in 1st half versus UWW.

And Rowan put up 6 on WPU.

[backyarddawg]

Polls this week?

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

MAF Top 25
1. Rowan 9-0-0
2. Chicago 9-0-0
3. Trinity (Tx) 8-0-0
4. Amherst 5-0-1
5. Kenyon 8-0-0
6. Ohio Northern 9-0-1
7. Washington Lee 6-1-0
8. Calvin 7-1-0
9. Mass-Boston 8-0-0
10. St. Lawrence 7-1-0
11. Macalester 7-0-1
12. Middlebury 4-0-1
13. Franklin & Marshall 5-1-3
14. Plattsburgh St. 8-1-0
15. Rochester 6-0-1
16. Haverford 5-1-2
17. Lynchburg 6-0-2
18. Messiah 5-0-3
19. Grove City 7-1-0
20. Carnegie Mellon 6-1-0
21. Ohio Wesleyan 5-1-2
22. Oneonta St. 7-2-0
23. Lycoming 5-2-2
24. Springfield 6-0-1
25. Washington U. 5-0-0

RV: Scranton, Gettysburg, Etown, Eastern, Union, Vassar, Buffalo St., Clark, Gordon, Williams, Ramapo, St. Marys (Md), Kean, RUN, RUC, Montclair St., NJCU, Centre, CNU, Oberlin, Capital, Carthage, Concordia, St. Thomas, Dubuque, St. Norbert, St. Olaf, Redlans, Colorado College, Ozarks, Whitwirth

[PaulNewman]

NCAC NE Top 15 (Week 4)

1) Chicago (TIE)
1) Rowan (TIE)

[Can't see any clear reason to pick one over the other as both continue to live up to and/or exceed expectation]

3) Kenyon
4) Amherst
5) Oneonta St (Huge rise I know but who would want to play them?)
6) Trinity (TX) (Tough to evaluate with schedule and not totally sold but they keep winning)
7) Middlebury
8) Calvin
9) Washington & Lee
10) Ohio Northern
11) UMass-Boston
12) Wash U
13) St Lawrence
14) Rochester
15) Franklin & Marshall

16 thru 25 (alphabetical) -- Gordon, Haverford, Lycoming, Lynchburg, Macalester, Messiah, Montclair St, OWU, Plattsburgh, Eastern/St Thomas/Williams (TIE)

RV (random order) -- Carnegie Mellon, Oberlin, Grove City, Elizabethtown, Christopher Newport, Redlands, Cortland St, Buffalo St, Capital, Concordia (Wis), Rutgers-Newark, Ramapo, Gettysburg, WPI, Scranton, Colorado Coll, Vassar, Clark, Dubuque, Lebanon Valley, Springfield, Randolph, Claremont-Mudd-Scripps, Kean, Transylvania, Chapman/La Verne

Unranked and dangerous -- Bowdoin, Brandeis, Carthage, Emory, Johns Hopkins, Loras, Rutgers-Camden, Swarthmore, Tufts


*** Presumes Williams and Macalester winning today, and CMU would drop out of RV with a loss to John Carroll

[PaulNewman]

Big slate of weekday games

First, great job by Carnegie Mellon going on the road and getting a W at a seemingly fading John Carroll (at Don Shula Stadium).  Williams also comes through as predicted, and Macalester remains unbeaten while Conn Coll picks up a vital NESCAC win.  Springfield, also still unbeaten but with bigger fish ahead, decimates Keene St which apparently just gave us a head-fake with a good start and the win over Wheaton (MA).  The West is a mess, or at least a very foggy picture, as Whitworth draws and then loses in consecutive days in the NWC (Puget Sound and Pac Lutheran).   Colorado Coll blows out Southwestern 4-0 while Trinity (TX) has a scare in a 2OT squeaker over Centenary (LA) [is that same Centenary that produced Robert Parish for the Celtics?].  UW-Platteville moves to 8-2 with a win over Minnesota-Morris.  And Loras gets back in the win column traveling to Nebraska for an Iowa conference game.

Monday

Chapman@ Redlands -- Redlands is sputtering and Chapman beat CNU on the back end of the Captains' trip out West.

Tuesday

A smaller slate than Wednesday but some big games nonetheless and some that could seriously derail the chances of a few teams in terms of post-season hopes.

The headliners are Kenyon@ CRWU and Chicago@ Carthage.  Chicago may get its toughest test yet as Carthage has proven to be dangerous and unafraid of challenges.  Alma slipped up against Albion so Calvin@ Alma loses a bit of luster but a key conference battle regardless. 

And then there are a handful of fascinating games...Wheaton (MA)@ Brandeis, Transy@ Centre, Middlebury@ Hamilton (and the Continentals should be confident with an early 3-0 NESCAC record and a great showing against resurgent Oneonta), Endicott@ WPI (a huge sleeper game in New England region), Wesleyan@ Tufts (fascinating to see if these teams continue in present directions) and New Paltz St@ Union.

Wednesday

Make sure you've got the extra devices charged and ready to go as will hard to pick which games to watch especially for neutrals...

Best of the bunch would seem to be OWU@ Capital (as Capital is on a big win streak and looking for respect), Loras@ UWW, Montclair@ Kean, Gettysburg@ Johns Hopkins, Bowdoin@ Babson, Lycoming@ Misericordia and of course the famed "Marshmellow Bowl" with E'town@ Messiah.  Out West La Verne takes a strong record to one-loss Claremont-Mudd-Scripps. 

Trap game and potential upset alerts involve Rowan@Stockton, Amherst@ MIT, F&M@ Ursinus, Randolph@ Christopher Newport, Ramapo@ William Paterson and Otterbein@ Oberlin.

Mary Washington@ NC Wesleyan, Swarthmore@ Mulenberg and Luther@ UW-Platteville may draw regional interest as well.

Thursday

Thomas More@ DePauw...TMC is now reduced to hoping to prevail over Grove City for the PRAC AQ and DePauw now desperately needs a win to keep Pool C hopes alive.

Friday

Dominated by a full slate of SUNYAC and Liberty League action.

This is the last week of a fair amount of non-conference games as Saturday, October 1 signals the real next phase of the season with conference play dominating from then until Selection Day.  Here's a tease....Saturday the UAA finally gets underway with Chicago@ Emory and Brandeis@ Carnegie Mellon.  And how about Kean@ Rowan, Kenyon@ DePauw, Vassar@ SLU, Gettysburg@ Haverford and Plattsburgh St@ Cortland St? 

The excitement just ramps up from here.

[Shooter McGavin]

Shooter's Rankings
1. Rowan
2. Chicago
3. Kenyon
4. Ohio Northern
5. Amherst
6. Trinity (Tx)
7. Calvin
8. Oneonta St
9. St. Lawrence
10. Washington & Lee
11. Middlebury
12. Haverford
13. Mass-Boston
14. F&M
15. Plattsburgh
16. Messiah
17. Rochester
18. Grove City
19. Wash U
20. Macalester
21. OWU
22. Montclair
23. Lynchburg
24. Springfield
25. Gordon
RV: Lycoming, CNU, Redlands, Vassar, Buffalo St, Scranton, Etown, Loras, Brandeis, CMU, Williams, Eastern, RUC, RUN, Clark, Colorado College, Dubuque, WPI

[Go2Goal]

How is Ramapo not ahead of Montclair? The won at Montclair and are still undefeated! I don't think they will be their at the end but as for now, to me it doesn't make a lot of sense. They are not even receiving votes?

[dontshootthegoose]

Thoughts on the Pool B bid?  New Rochelle, Platteville, Whitewater?

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Thoughts on the Pool B bid?  New Rochelle, Platteville, Whitewater?

As of right now it's tight between those 3 but based off record, SOS, RvR, the eye ball test, etc. I would go with UWW, Platteville, then New Rochelle although that is opposite of how they are based on record. We will see how it shapes up but I think results vs Macalester, Luther, and Milikin and a tough loss to Carthage and an okay loss to Benedictine sits better than not playing anyone like New Rochelle and Platteville has lost both of their tough games.

NR: 6-1, RVR 0-0-0 and will likely stay 0-0-0, winning % .857

UWP: 8-2-0, RvR 0-2-0 w/opportunity of 3 other ranked teams, winning % .800   

UWW: 4-2-2, RvR 2-2-1 w/potential of 6 more ranked teams, winning % .625