2016 D3 Season: NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

[Gregory Sager]

3) Will most of the injured players from Wheaton (Ill) be back in the next 2-3 weeks?

This was the injury report from a Wheaton insider a week ago in this room:

Wheaton is still not close to full health. Danny Brandt has only played 1.5 games this season due to injury. Ben Bakke, a big time player who originally came from Creighton, is also hurt. 4 year starter Reed Bartley has played only 2 games as well. Jaxon Hulse, a sophomore starter, has also been missing games. Max Carey has also been in and out of games.

Here is their appearances, as of this evening:

* Brandt has played in three of Wheaton's nine matches, starting one of them.
* Bakke has played in seven of Wheaton's nine matches, starting four of them.
* Bartley has played in five of Wheaton's nine matches, starting three of them.
* Hulse has played in five of Wheaton's nine matches, starting three of them.
* Carey has played in seven of Wheaton's nine matches, starting six of them.

Here's the situation regarding each of them in Wheaton's three most recent matches:

* Hulse and Carey started in Wheaton's 2-2 draw with Aurora a week ago yesterday, while Bartley and Bakke came in as subs. Brandt didn't play.
* In Wheaton's 1-1 draw with Benedictine last Wednesday, Bartley and Hulse started and Brandt came in as a sub. Bakke and Carey didn't play.
* Tonight, in Wheaton's 1-0 win over Lake Forest, Bartley and Carey started and Bakke came in as a sub. Brandt and Hulse didn't play.

Whether the non-starts and the DNPs are the results of ongoing injuries or of the coach's decisions is unclear. But these are the facts as they appear on the Wheaton statistics page.

Brandt did not come in as a sub in the Benedictine game. He has not played or even dressed since the Rose-Hulman game on September 3. He has been injured and has not played since. The stat on Brandt playing is wrong. According to the live feed from the game, Bakke is nursing an ankle injury.

Well, Brandt played tonight. In the 87th minute he got Wheaton's only goal in a 2-1 loss to North Park. In fact, all of the players you've mentioned save Bakke played this evening against NPU.

The win gives NPU the leg up on the rest of the CCIW. The Vikings are now 3-0 in league play, while Carthage and Illinois Wesleyan are the only two other unbeatens at 1-0 apiece. Wheaton is at Carthage on Wednesday, which should be an interesting match, while NPU is at Illinois Wesleyan.

[rudy]

Kenyon has dropped last 2? Ncac New England must have some comments about this? Injuries? Tough games?

[Domino1195]

Kenyon has dropped last 2? Ncac New England must have some comments about this? Injuries? Tough games?

Parity, and sustaining a high level of intensity and effort over a full season, game in, game out. We've been discussing in the Great Lakes thread whether there are teams far ahead of others. In the dozens of games I've seen either broadcast or in person I cannot say there ARE any teams that are that far ahead of the others in the region. Winning road games IS difficult; matching a home team's intensity - especially when you are perceived to be "the better" team and have "the target" on your back.

I watched the entire game versus Case - Kenyon was the better team throughout the match. But Case follows that up with a loss to NYU? That's a third factor - emotions. Look at Saturday's results - especially the head scratchers. Emotion let-down after big games or tough losses. Unlike pointy ball,where those teams get a full week to reflect and recover, these kids get two or three days to bounce back - and sometimes it takes longer to emotionally recover.

[rudy]

Kenyon has dropped last 2? Ncac New England must have some comments about this? Injuries? Tough games?

Parity, and sustaining a high level of intensity and effort over a full season, game in, game out. We've been discussing in the Great Lakes thread whether there are teams far ahead of others. In the dozens of games I've seen either broadcast or in person I cannot say there ARE any teams that are that far ahead of the others in the region. Winning road games IS difficult; matching a home team's intensity - especially when you are perceived to be "the better" team and have "the target" on your back.

I watched the entire game versus Case - Kenyon was the better team throughout the match. But Case follows that up with a loss to NYU? That's a third factor - emotions. Look at Saturday's results - especially the head scratchers. Emotion let-down after big games or tough losses. Unlike pointy ball,where those teams get a full week to reflect and recover, these kids get two or three days to bounce back - and sometimes it takes longer to emotionally recover.

After looking at stats for both Kenyon losses they dominated shots, sog, and corners but apparently could just not put it in the back of the net. In American football a heavily favored team almost always wins..not many truly big upsets. With soccer the weaker team can score with one SOG , pk, free kick, and then "survive" by packing it in and clearing the ball anytime the opposing team crosses midfield. A good keeper can make a big difference.  There is a lot of parity but when a team has a 15+ shot advantage and 2-3 times more sogs, then luck and perhaps some strategy plays a role!

[PaulNewman]

Kenyon has dropped last 2? Ncac New England must have some comments about this? Injuries? Tough games?

No excuses.  And bear in mind that I have no inside info so these are my impressions from 600+ miles away.  Plus there was no video yesterday.

1) DePauw is a good team with a consistently good program.  DPU has hung some big losses on OWU over the past 5-6 years and they've had Kenyon's number for the most part over that same span.  Most of the games have gone to OT, ended 0-0 or at most been 1 goal affairs.  DPU knocked off Loras last year and then played a good Sweet 16 game.  Gonzalez who missed or had a PK saved yesterday is one of the most dangerous players in the country.

2) Kenyon has been feeling the pressure, on them since 2014, with this year perceived as possibly the last chance in a really good run over the last 4 years.  They've probably also been a little overrated.  The talent is good enough but there are more than a handful of teams with equal or stronger talent.  There are other factors and/or intangibles as well, and I don't have a great feel for those with this team.  Kenyon hasn't lost 2 games in a row since 2011.  They never should have lost the Case game (who then loses at home to NYU) and that loss was all the more painful knowing that DPU away lay ahead.

3) Kenyon's margin for error has shrunk significantly.  Oberlin away will be tough and Oberlin would love to knock off the Lords.  Denison especially away is always tricky.  They have OWU at home but in recent OWU-Kenyon matchups the away team has tended to win or come away with a result.  OWU also likely will need that game as well the way things are going for them and OWU despite some recent struggles has top-level talent that in theory should really be gelling by that game.  Wabash away also is tricky and the Little Giants have started playing well.  The NCAC tourney could be huge this year and determine who gets a bid and who doesn't.

4) These are 19-21 year old kids.  They need to be confident, in sync with each other, and feeling the full support of their coaches.  There needs to be a bigger picture that sets the frame beyond just one season, that embraces values that go beyond winning or not winning a national title, and that focuses on the players and their well-being and promotes them both while they are playing and after they leave.  The most successful programs, again from a distance, seem to be the ones where the alumni are heavily involved and appreciated.  Messiah, Amherst, Loras, OWU come to mind.  I bet Williams was like that during the Russo tenure.  The pressure to win and feeling increased competitiveness and threats to dominance, though, also can get to the best of them.  Martin's comments after some of OWU's recent games have surprised me.  Psychology is a huge factor not just with an individual team but also with the program at large.  I also think it's important that adjustments be made based on caring for the team and players, doing what is best for the team based on fairness and optimal team dynamics, and not out of any kind of retaliation for a loss, single error, or need to assert some kind of authoritarian whatever.

5) All that said, my guess is that the Lords will get through this stretch and be formidable in November.  If they can get the AQ or a Pool C they actually might benefit from not playing at home and going in with a bit more of an underdog role.  You have to get hot at the right time, and being ranked #1 or #2 for several weeks in a row or most of a season isn't necessarily a helpful burden. 

[PaulNewman]

Kenyon has dropped last 2? Ncac New England must have some comments about this? Injuries? Tough games?

Parity, and sustaining a high level of intensity and effort over a full season, game in, game out. We've been discussing in the Great Lakes thread whether there are teams far ahead of others. In the dozens of games I've seen either broadcast or in person I cannot say there ARE any teams that are that far ahead of the others in the region. Winning road games IS difficult; matching a home team's intensity - especially when you are perceived to be "the better" team and have "the target" on your back.

I watched the entire game versus Case - Kenyon was the better team throughout the match. But Case follows that up with a loss to NYU? That's a third factor - emotions. Look at Saturday's results - especially the head scratchers. Emotion let-down after big games or tough losses. Unlike pointy ball,where those teams get a full week to reflect and recover, these kids get two or three days to bounce back - and sometimes it takes longer to emotionally recover.

After looking at stats for both Kenyon losses they dominated shots, sog, and corners but apparently could just not put it in the back of the net. In American football a heavily favored team almost always wins..not many truly big upsets. With soccer the weaker team can score with one SOG , pk, free kick, and then "survive" by packing it in and clearing the ball anytime the opposing team crosses midfield. A good keeper can make a big difference.  There is a lot of parity but when a team has a 15+ shot advantage and 2-3 times more sogs, then luck and perhaps some strategy plays a role!

Again, from a distance and without benefit of video...

Stats for DPU game are deceptive.  They were pretty even until Kenyon got desperate in last 10 minutes and racked up some shots while I presume DPU was holding on.  Kenyon actually was fortunate not to be down 2-0 in the first minute of 2nd half.  They gave up 1st goal in 1st half with a foul at top of box as Moore scored on a free kick, and then in 1st minute of 2nd half a called handball gave DPU a PK, which Clougher may have saved but hit the crossbar.

Kenyon did dominate in the Case game.

[Domino1195]

Kenyon has dropped last 2? Ncac New England must have some comments about this? Injuries? Tough games?

Parity, and sustaining a high level of intensity and effort over a full season, game in, game out. We've been discussing in the Great Lakes thread whether there are teams far ahead of others. In the dozens of games I've seen either broadcast or in person I cannot say there ARE any teams that are that far ahead of the others in the region. Winning road games IS difficult; matching a home team's intensity - especially when you are perceived to be "the better" team and have "the target" on your back.

I watched the entire game versus Case - Kenyon was the better team throughout the match. But Case follows that up with a loss to NYU? That's a third factor - emotions. Look at Saturday's results - especially the head scratchers. Emotion let-down after big games or tough losses. Unlike pointy ball,where those teams get a full week to reflect and recover, these kids get two or three days to bounce back - and sometimes it takes longer to emotionally recover.

After looking at stats for both Kenyon losses they dominated shots, sog, and corners but apparently could just not put it in the back of the net. In American football a heavily favored team almost always wins..not many truly big upsets. With soccer the weaker team can score with one SOG , pk, free kick, and then "survive" by packing it in and clearing the ball anytime the opposing team crosses midfield. A good keeper can make a big difference.  There is a lot of parity but when a team has a 15+ shot advantage and 2-3 times more sogs, then luck and perhaps some strategy plays a role!

There is the luck factor - impossible to quantify, measure or understand when you receive a good break or a bad one.  But I believe, over a 90 minute game, if you have reduced your team's chances to one event - going your way or the other - you've overburdened your reliance on a lucky break helping you out.  Without seeing the DePauw game I can only say that the OT loss at Case was a heart breaker and Kenyon then had to follow that up with a second road game at an above-average opponent.  Grove City beats nationally ranked CMU on homecoming weekend - then drops they next two to teams they probably should have beaten.  When I was a sports gambler I used to kill playing college games -  got killed playing pro's.  18-22 year old boys play on a LOT of emotion. I'd look for sandwich games, games for teams after big wins or losses, etc.  Basketball, like soccer - lots of games per week - the emotional and physical drain, knocks/injuries.

I started a discussion in the other group about the "role" of looking at statistics - and history.  I prefer to watch teams play and base my assessment on what I see - today, right now. 15 shots is a number - how many were quality looks?  7 saves - any that were game savers?

It was interesting to note the number of teams (I follow mostly Ohio and a few other Great Lakes teams) who posted Twitter comments about it being a new season, records are now 0-0, forget or build on the pre-conference results.  Some have taken that to heart looking at the results this first weekend.

FWIW - the NCAC should finish Kenyon - followed by OWU, DePauw and Oberlin - the last three in no particular order.

[Midwest Soccer]

Oberlin is in the drivers seat right now in terms of NCAC play. Kenyon, Oberlin, DePauw and OWU/Wabash/Hiram for the last spot.

Also, OWU looks to be on the outside looking in of even making the NCAC tournament. 2 points from 2 games vs Denison and Wabash and still yet to face DePauw, Oberlin, and Kenyon. Not ruling them out by any means but a tough road ahead nonetheless.

[Domino1195]

Oberlin is in the drivers seat right now in terms of NCAC play. Kenyon, Oberlin, DePauw and OWU/Wabash/Hiram for the last spot.

Also, OWU looks to be on the outside looking in of even making the NCAC tournament. 2 points from 2 games vs Denison and Wabash and still yet to face DePauw, Oberlin, and Kenyon. Not ruling them out by any means but a tough road ahead nonetheless.

Oberlin is vulnerable on defense - only four clean sheets - 12 goals conceded. I watched them in a preseason game and saw the Baldwin Wallace game.  Otterbein - a much improved team with some freshman that are impacting the results - blew a lead with three minutes to go at Oberlin.  OWU and Kenyon defend much better - Kenyon can score - OWU is struggling.  Kenyon and OWU have played much tougher schedules YTD.  Oberlin will have to tighten things up in the back when they play the top three-four teams.

[PaulNewman]

NCAC NE Top 15

1) Chicago
2) Rowan
3) Trinity (TX)
4) Calvin
5) Washington & Lee
6) Ohio Northern
7) UMass-Boston
8) Middlebury
9) Wash U
10) Messiah
11) Amherst
12) Rochester
13) St Lawrence
14) Oneonta St
15) Franklin & Marshall/Haverford/Lynchburg (TIE)

Hot teams/spoilers (random order) -- Luther, Capital, St Thomas, Conn College, Maryville, Gordon, Hamilton, Ramapo, WPI, Springfield, Oberlin, Rutgers-Newark, Colorado College, Hanover, Johns Hopkins

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

NCAC NE Top 15

1) Chicago
2) Rowan
3) Trinity (TX)
4) Calvin
5) Washington & Lee
6) Ohio Northern
7) UMass-Boston
8) Middlebury
9) Wash U
10) Messiah
11) Amherst
12) Rochester
13) St Lawrence
14) Oneonta St
15) Franklin & Marshall/Haverford/Lynchburg (TIE)

Hot teams/spoilers (random order) -- Luther, Capital, St Thomas, Conn College, Maryville, Gordon, Hamilton, Ramapo, WPI, Springfield, Oberlin, Rutgers-Newark, Colorado College, Hanover, Johns Hopkins

Well done NCAC!

[jknezek]

Attrition keeps pushing W&L higher. The next 8 days will be interesting for them.

[Shooter McGavin]

Shooter's Take
1. Chicago-----------11-0-0
2. Rowan------------10-0-1
3. Trinity------------11-0-0
4. Calvin-------------9-1-0
5. Ohio Northern----10-0-1
6. Mass-Boston-----10-0-0
7. St. Lawrence-----9-1-0
8. W&L--------------8-1-0
9. Oneonta St.------8-2-1
10. Amherst--------7-1-1
11. Kenyon---------8-2-0
12. Messiah---------7-0-3
13. Rochester-------7-0-2
14. Haverford-------7-1-2
15. Lynchburg------7-0-2
16. Springfield------9-0-1
17. Wash. U--------6-0-1
18. St. Thomas-----9-0-2
19. F&M------------7-1-3
20. Middlebury-----5-0-2
21. Colorado Coll---8-1-1
22. Capital----------9-1-0
23. Dubuque-------9-1-0
24. Newark---------11-2-0
25. Macalester-----8-1-2

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

http://d3soccer.com/top25/men/2016/week5

October 4, 2016
D3soccer.com Men's Top 25, Week 5
Through games of Sunday, October 2, 2016

#   School (1st Pl. Votes)   Record   Pts.   Prev.
1   Chicago (12)   11-0-0   980   4
2   Trinity (Texas) (4)   11-0-0   950   5
3   Rowan (3)   10-0-1   920   1
4   Ohio Northern   11-0-1   886   6
5   Washington & Lee   8-1-0   828   7
6   Calvin   9-1-0   790   8
7   St. Lawrence   9-1-0   750   9
8   Amherst   7-1-1   700   3
9   Mass-Boston (1)   10-0-0   684   10
10   Franklin & Marshall   7-1-3   555   14
11   Kenyon   8-2-0   523   2
12   Haverford   7-1-2   515   15
13   Messiah   7-0-3   504   20
14   Middlebury   5-0-2   502   12
15   Washington U.   6-0-1   476   17
16   Chris. Newport   9-2-0   470   16
17   Carnegie Mellon   7-1-1   319   18
18   Macalester   8-1-2   302   11
19   Lynchburg   7-0-2   275   25
20   Rochester   7-0-2   256   —
21   Oneonta State   8-2-1   241   21
22   Elizabethtown   6-2-1   198   19
23   Colorado College   8-1-1   195   —
24   St. Thomas   9-0-2   125   —
25   Capital   9-1-0   100   —
Dropped out: No. 13 Ohio Wesleyan, No. 22 Plattsburgh State, No. 23 Brandeis, No. 24 Loras

Receiving Votes: Ohio Wesleyan 86, Dubuque 80, Springfield 60, Redlands 38, Luther 32, Gordon 28, Cortland State 18, Plattsburgh State 14, Oberlin 14, Lebanon Valley 12, Scranton 10, Connecticut College 10, Rutgers-Newark 10, Lycoming 8, Clark 8, Loras 6, Montclair State 6, North Park 2

[Mr.Right]

My thoughts are Tufts after beating Amherst and Brandeis deserves to be RV...ETOWN should be RV and not ranked still. I still do not see a decent win on their resume. UMASS Boston's got 2 good (not great) wins against a decent Wentworth side and Union 3-0. They have let up only 2 goals all year which is impressive but their schedule is weak. I haven't seen them yet this year and I know based on last year they have some definite talent but they are not a Top 10 team in the nation. We will see what they do today at Babson. If you are going to rank UMASS Boston so high after their weak schedule then why not at least rank Springfield who I believe is 9-0-1 and while they have played some weak teams they have also gotten some results against teams that are much better than UMASS Boston's opponents. Conn College at 6-2-0 should be receiving more RV