2016 D3 Season: NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

[PaulNewman]

I can definitely see the logic for all of that. I went off my rankings last week. So I had Capital very high (11 or 12 I believe?) so despite two losses since then I figured I would keep them as the last RV slot. Agreed Carthage should be a little higher (I missed on that one!) Springfield, St. Thomas, and Behrend have a combined 44-2-7 record...I'll take my chances slotting them together 13 thru 15. Until they mess up they deserve a little praise. Middlebury I had very high last week so again they dropped far (10 slots) based off 2 losses since then...probably should switch them with someone like UR or Etown and have them RV instead of ranked. All the others you mentioned for potential RV teams are definitely deserving of recognition.

Thoughts on Oneonta St? Chances they get an at-large bid after dropping their last 2 of the regular season? They are sitting at 13-5-1 right now. I believe they are on the wrong side of the bubble at the moment.

Oneonta of course will have a very good chance of winning their tournament.  They seem to have Cortland's number.  If not, I would guess they still may have a chance.  Seems like this may be a strange year.  A lot of teams stumbling but I don't see teams right underneath them right there to take advantage, unless we see something different with how SoS is used.  Like will any of teams like Maryville, Capital, Geneva, Endicott, etc, etc get a bid if they don't win their tourneys?  What teams are right on the doorstep ready to capitalize on teams that have stumbled like Oneonta, Midd, SLU, Macalester, etc?  I think we may see at least several teams with 6-8 blemishes get in this year.

[Flying Weasel]

Yeah, it will be interesting to see what the committee does with some of these teams like Oneonta St that have more losses than normal and thus a lower win pct. than expected but good SOS.  Will some teams with better win pct., but SOS's below the normal range of consideration get in the mix?  It's a little bit of a new situation this year. I think.  Not as many teams are "picking themselves" by keeping their blemishes to a minimum playing a pretty tough schedule.  I think the committee's job is tougher than ever this year to weigh the different criteria and come to a decision.  Seems we'll have to either see teams with more blemishes than normal get selected or teams with lower SOS than normal get picked.

[PaulNewman]

Yeah, it will be interesting to see what the committee does with some of these teams like Oneonta St that have more losses than normal and thus a lower win pct. than expected but good SOS.  Will some teams with better win pct., but SOS's below the normal range of consideration get in the mix?  It's a little bit of a new situation this year. I think.  Not as many teams are "picking themselves" by keeping their blemishes to a minimum playing a pretty tough schedule.  I think the committee's job is tougher than ever this year to weigh the different criteria and come to a decision.  Seems we'll have to either see teams with more blemishes than normal get selected or teams with lower SOS than normal get picked.

You put it much better than I.

When I look at some of the regions where big names are faltering, I don't really see anyone else to pick.  Like in the East with Oneonta and SLU who is right there to take advantage?  Every time a team like Buff St or Fredonia gets on the cusp THEY lose.  As teams like Clark, Gordon, etc fade who is going to jump over a slumping Middlebury.  Will a team like Springfield get a bid without the AQ?  I assume RIC is pretty well positioned but teams like RIC in all of these regions are pretty hard to find.  Will a team like Hanover with a decent SoS get a bid if they don't get the AQ.  Definitely is going to be interesting.

[Flying Weasel]

from D3soccer.com: http://www.d3soccer.com/rankings/2016/regional-rankings-Oct-26

CENTRAL

RANK	SCHOOL	DIV. III	OVERALL	SOS	RvR	PREV.
1.	Chicago	15-0-0	15-0-0	0.656	6-0-0	1
2.	Carthage	13-3-0	14-3-0	0.618	3-2-0	2
3.	Washington U.	9-3-1	9-3-1	0.580	2-1-1	3
4.	North Park	9-5-1	9-5-1	0.579	1-2-1	4
5.	Calvin	14-2-0	14-2-0	0.513	0-1-0	6
6.	Benedictine	12-3-1	12-4-1	0.516	1-1-0	--

EAST

RANK	SCHOOL	DIV. III	OVERALL	SOS	RvR	PREV.
1.	Cortland State	15-2-0	15-2-0	0.565	3-2-0	3
2.	Oneonta State	13-4-1	13-4-1	0.609	3-3-0	2
3.	Rochester	8-2-3	8-2-3	0.623	3-2-1	1
4.	St. Lawrence	11-3-0	11-3-0	0.553	2-1-0	4
5.	New Paltz State	8-3-7	8-3-7	0.563	3-1-1	--
6.	Fredonia State	11-6-1	11-6-1	0.558	2-1-0	8
7.	Vassar	10-3-2	10-3-2	0.563	1-3-0	5
8.	Hobart	8-5-3	8-5-3	0.591	2-3-0	7

GREAT LAKES

RANK	SCHOOL	DIV. III	OVERALL	SOS	RvR	PREV.
1.	DePauw	10-3-1	10-3-2	0.562	3-1-0	4
2.	Ohio Wesleyan	9-3-3	9-3-3	0.562	3-2-2	3
3.	Oberlin	12-3-1	12-3-1	0.562	2-3-0	2
4.	Ohio Northern	14-0-3	15-0-3	0.515	1-0-1	1
5.	Hanover	12-3-0	13-3-0	0.531	2-2-0	5
6.	Kenyon	13-2-0	13-2-0	0.507	1-1-0	6
7.	Carnegie Mellon	10-2-2	10-2-2	0.534	0-1-1	7
8.	John Carroll	9-5-2	9-5-2	0.569	0-2-1	--

MID-ATLANTIC

RANK	SCHOOL	DIV. III	OVERALL	SOS	RvR	PREV.
1.	Messiah	13-0-3	13-0-3	0.561	3-0-2	1
2.	Franklin and Marshall	11-1-3	11-1-3	0.558	3-1-0	2
3.	Elizabethtown	11-2-2	11-2-2	0.554	2-2-1	3
4.	Haverford	9-3-3	9-3-3	0.572	2-1-1	4
5.	Scranton	11-3-1	11-3-1	0.544	1-2-1	6
6.	Drew	9-4-2	9-4-2	0.545	1-0-1	5
7.	Johns Hopkins	10-3-2	10-3-2	0.522	1-2-0	9
8.	Gettysburg	8-3-3	8-3-3	0.554	0-3-1	7
9.	Misericordia	10-5-1	10-5-1	0.546	0-2-1	--

[Flying Weasel]

from D3soccer.com: http://www.d3soccer.com/rankings/2016/regional-rankings-Oct-26

NEW ENGLAND

RANK	SCHOOL	DIV. III	OVERALL	SOS	RvR	PREV.
1.	Amherst	12-1-1	12-1-1	0.565	4-1-1	1
2.	Tufts	9-3-2	9-3-2	0.604	4-0-0	8
3.	Mass-Boston	14-1-1	14-1-1	0.537	1-0-1	2
4.	Clark	13-3-0	13-3-0	0.541	3-1-0	3
5.	Middlebury	9-2-3	9-2-3	0.566	2-1-1	4
6.	Rhode Island College	12-3-1	12-3-1	0.579	1-3-0	5
7.	Babson	9-4-3	9-4-3	0.614	2-3-2	7
8.	Brandeis	7-4-3	7-4-3	0.637	3-3-2	--
9.	Williams	8-3-3	8-3-3	0.595	1-3-1	6
10.	Connecticut College	9-4-1	9-4-1	0.558	2-3-1	10
11.	Coast Guard	9-3-3	9-3-3	0.547	1-2-1	11
12.	WPI	8-3-4	8-3-4	0.574	0-2-1	9

NORTH

RANK	SCHOOL	DIV. III	OVERALL	SOS	RvR	PREV.
1.	St. Thomas	13-0-3	13-0-3	0.555	2-0-1	2
2.	UW-Whitewater	13-4-3	13-4-3	0.587	3-2-2	--
3.	Dubuque	12-4-0	12-4-0	0.558	2-1-0	1
4.	Luther	11-4-2	11-4-2	0.594	1-3-0	3
5.	Wartburg	12-5-1	12-5-1	0.566	2-3-0	--
6.	St. Norbert	14-3-0	14-3-0	0.521	1-0-0	6

SOUTH ATLANTIC

RANK	SCHOOL	DIV. III	OVERALL	SOS	RvR	PREV.
1.	Rowan	14-1-1	14-1-1	0.625	4-1-0	1
2.	Rutgers-Newark	17-2-0	17-2-0	0.606	4-0-0	2
3.	Lynchburg	11-1-3	11-1-3	0.580	1-1-1	3
4.	Christopher Newport	14-2-1	14-2-1	0.573	1-1-1	4
5.	Washington and Lee	12-3-0	12-3-0	0.567	3-2-0	5
6.	Emory	9-3-1	9-3-1	0.603	1-1-1	6
7.	Kean	14-5-0	14-5-0	0.573	2-3-0	--
8.	Montclair State	12-5-1	12-5-1	0.614	1-3-0	8

WEST

RANK	SCHOOL	DIV. III	OVERALL	SOS	RvR	PREV.
1.	Trinity (Texas)	16-1-0	16-1-0	0.553	3-0-0	1
2.	Chapman	11-4-2	11-4-2	0.550	2-1-0	--
3.	Colorado College	13-2-1	14-2-1	0.528	0-2-1	2
4.	Texas-Dallas	11-3-1	11-3-1	0.574	0-2-0	3
5.	Whitworth	10-3-2	10-3-2	0.555	0-2-0	5

[firstplaceloser]

are the refs around the country just as bad as the refs in jersey?! i attended the stockton camden game and the ref seemed to be playing for stockton. he called a pk which stockton won off of for a foul that a lot of you guys would laugh at. it's a joke that refs have the authority to do that. is it really that hard to find decent refs..

[paclassic89]

At least from my perspective in the Mid Atlantic,  there is a small group of refs that are, for the most part, pretty good.  Then the rest are either below average or just downright bad.  So, yes, it seems to be an American reffing thing.  You also see this in club and academy soccer as well as high school

[Ji Sung Park the Bus]

are the refs around the country just as bad as the refs in jersey?! i attended the stockton camden game and the ref seemed to be playing for stockton. he called a pk which stockton won off of for a foul that a lot of you guys would laugh at. it's a joke that refs have the authority to do that. is it really that hard to find decent refs..

We must of been at different games, I think the ref was equally bad for both teams.  The penalty was a penalty every day of the week with a good ref or a bad ref.  I thought it was good game each team had the balance of play for stretches and Camden had a few chances they should have put away to tie the game up. 

Nothing like late season / post season NJAC games!!!

[Domino1195]

Yeah, it will be interesting to see what the committee does with some of these teams like Oneonta St that have more losses than normal and thus a lower win pct. than expected but good SOS.  Will some teams with better win pct., but SOS's below the normal range of consideration get in the mix?  It's a little bit of a new situation this year. I think.  Not as many teams are "picking themselves" by keeping their blemishes to a minimum playing a pretty tough schedule.  I think the committee's job is tougher than ever this year to weigh the different criteria and come to a decision.  Seems we'll have to either see teams with more blemishes than normal get selected or teams with lower SOS than normal get picked.

You put it much better than I.

When I look at some of the regions where big names are faltering, I don't really see anyone else to pick.  Like in the East with Oneonta and SLU who is right there to take advantage?  Every time a team like Buff St or Fredonia gets on the cusp THEY lose.  As teams like Clark, Gordon, etc fade who is going to jump over a slumping Middlebury.  Will a team like Springfield get a bid without the AQ?  I assume RIC is pretty well positioned but teams like RIC in all of these regions are pretty hard to find.  Will a team like Hanover with a decent SoS get a bid if they don't get the AQ.  Definitely is going to be interesting.

An interesting situation is brewing in the midwest with OWU. Given Saturday's slate - the only chance OWU has of making the NCAC tournament is for them to win and DePauw lose at home to Allegheny.  OWU finishes the season 10-4-2, does not make the tournament and is ranked #2 in the midwest. Their SOS might drop a little this week - not enough to drop them out of the top 4 in the 3rd rankings.  Others in the region play another week and have the chance to increase their SOS as they play one another - or play other ranked teams.  What to do, what to do . . .

[Mr.Right]

I thin OWU will drop but not by much as the other teams in the region do not have comparable SOS, OWP and RvR...I say they drop to #4 and are squarely on the BUBBLE....The 19th Pool C team in the NCAA's could well come from past NCAA Champions OWU, SLU, Williams or Midd....Very interesting. I still say Kenyon better win the NCAC AQ as that SOS is beyond WEAK

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

At least from my perspective in the Mid Atlantic,  there is a small group of refs that are, for the most part, pretty good.  Then the rest are either below average or just downright bad.  So, yes, it seems to be an American reffing thing.  You also see this in club and academy soccer as well as high school

To go off this some more, I agree with paclassics89. The officiating is absolutely dreadful in this region for a large portion of games i have watched. This is for many teams and many locations throughout the region. It's a shame that their isn't a punishment for an official like there are for players and coaches. The lack of character in some officials is sad too. Yes they will get yelled at one way or another because one team will like the call and one team will not like the call. It's the nature of the game and job, but if the official can't take that then they shouldn't be doing the job. Dishing out unnecessary cards for a lack of "thick skin" is petty and childish at best. Sure there are instances I can recall from attending games that players rightfully deserve cards for dissent, but when asking for explanations on calls and getting carded for that is absurd. This year has by far been the worst officiating I have seen in all my years. I feel bad for the players having to deal with the uncertainty of what a foul is from game to game and usually from minute to minute. There is NO consistency from game to game or even half to half. 

[paclassic89]

This is a really interesting situation re: OWU/Kenyon and makes me think that the selection committee needs to retool their process.  I understand why the process is the way it is.  To provide a selection criteria that is as objective as possible but when you have a team that doesn't even make their conference playoffs ranked that much higher than a team that is first in the same conference I think there is a problem with the way these rankings are constructed

I'm not sure how much this would affect the rankings but why not use an RPI system as another criteria similar to the way NCAA Bball is done?  The RPI formula is as follows RPI = (WP * 0.25) + (OWP * 0.50) + (OOWP * 0.25)  It seems like such an easy thing to implement instead of eyeballing records.  From the NCAA selection process wiki entry:

"Additionally, the committee officially considers other computer rankings, such as ESPN's BPI, Sagarin, and Pomeroy Ratings, which use additional factors considered by the committee, such as injured players in the case of the BPI. Additionally, committee members consider how teams do on the road and at neutral courts, strength of conference and schedule, non-conference strength of schedule, record against other selected tournament teams, and other extenuating factors. Finally, the "eye test" is often quoted by pundits as something the committee uses, however ncaa.org's sparse description of the selection process doesn't officially mention the "eye test".[2] For instance, in 2016 Oklahoma athletic director Joe Castiglione, the NCAA selection committee's chair, said that the stark contrast in Syracuse's performance in 2015-2016 with Jim Boeheim present versus absent was considered the same as missing a key player during the slump."

[PaulNewman]

This is a really interesting situation re: OWU/Kenyon and makes me think that the selection committee needs to retool their process.  I understand why the process is the way it is.  To provide a selection criteria that is as objective as possible but when you have a team that doesn't even make their conference playoffs ranked that much higher than a team that is first in the same conference I think there is a problem with the way these rankings are constructed

I'm not sure how much this would affect the rankings but why not use an RPI system as another criteria similar to the way NCAA Bball is done?  The RPI formula is as follows RPI = (WP * 0.25) + (OWP * 0.50) + (OOWP * 0.25)  It seems like such an easy thing to implement instead of eyeballing records.  From the NCAA selection process wiki entry:

"Additionally, the committee officially considers other computer rankings, such as ESPN's BPI, Sagarin, and Pomeroy Ratings, which use additional factors considered by the committee, such as injured players in the case of the BPI. Additionally, committee members consider how teams do on the road and at neutral courts, strength of conference and schedule, non-conference strength of schedule, record against other selected tournament teams, and other extenuating factors. Finally, the "eye test" is often quoted by pundits as something the committee uses, however ncaa.org's sparse description of the selection process doesn't officially mention the "eye test".[2] For instance, in 2016 Oklahoma athletic director Joe Castiglione, the NCAA selection committee's chair, said that the stark contrast in Syracuse's performance in 2015-2016 with Jim Boeheim present versus absent was considered the same as missing a key player during the slump."

I'm not going to waste a lot of energy on this like I did last year.  No amount of upset or outrage about it is going to change a thing.  OWU scheduled almost all home games this year, I assume because of knowing they were young, while Kenyon scheduled almost all games away I assume specifically to address last year's fiasco.  OWU is benefitting from Calvin having no challenges in their conferences and another great record, ONU having a great record which helps boost OWU's SoS while ONU drops from 1st to 4th without losing, Hanover having a great record in another weak conference, Oberlin and Kenyon's records, Capital having a great record that could not have been anticipated any more than Heidelberg, and W&L having one of their best seasons ever.  On the other hand, on Kenyon's schedule TMC spit the bit this year way beyond what could be expected and CWRU has a bad record despite beating Kenyon and North Park, and everyone else (Catholic, Frostburg, Heidelberg, etc) were worse than normal.  Kenyon doesn't even get the benefit of OWU having a typically stellar record.  And then Wabash drops out of the rankings the same week they are celebrating their best season and biggest win in program history which will take away another ranked game for Kenyon.  Hard to swallow when you've just dominated a team and outshot them 20-4.  Then we've got DePauw which, at best, will finish 4th in the NCAC and sits on the #1 spot regionally.  Forget Kenyon.  That's not fair to ONU, Oberlin and Wabash.

Whatever.  I think Mr.Right is mostly right. Kenyon probably needs to beat Wabash and then at least get to the final of the NCAC tourney.  At that point, they might as well be completely safe and just win the thing again.

More broadly, one year after so many complaints about RPI, this could be the year of "RPI times five."  Teams like Oneonta, SLU, OWU, Midd/Williams, etc could sneak in because there are very few teams behind them to take their place.

[firstplaceloser]

are the refs around the country just as bad as the refs in jersey?! i attended the stockton camden game and the ref seemed to be playing for stockton. he called a pk which stockton won off of for a foul that a lot of you guys would laugh at. it's a joke that refs have the authority to do that. is it really that hard to find decent refs..

We must of been at different games, I think the ref was equally bad for both teams.  The penalty was a penalty every day of the week with a good ref or a bad ref.  I thought it was good game each team had the balance of play for stretches and Camden had a few chances they should have put away to tie the game up. 

Nothing like late season / post season NJAC games!!!

he went down a little soft. i even heard stockton parents laughing about it. regardless i'm not making excuses for the loss either i'm just saying that the refs are very very weak. don't get me wrong i've had some good refs but even when i played in the ncaa tournament and even in the final four the refs were horrid.

[Ji Sung Park the Bus]

are the refs around the country just as bad as the refs in jersey?! i attended the stockton camden game and the ref seemed to be playing for stockton. he called a pk which stockton won off of for a foul that a lot of you guys would laugh at. it's a joke that refs have the authority to do that. is it really that hard to find decent refs..

We must of been at different games, I think the ref was equally bad for both teams.  The penalty was a penalty every day of the week with a good ref or a bad ref.  I thought it was good game each team had the balance of play for stretches and Camden had a few chances they should have put away to tie the game up. 

Nothing like late season / post season NJAC games!!!

he went down a little soft. i even heard stockton parents laughing about it. regardless i'm not making excuses for the loss either i'm just saying that the refs are very very weak. don't get me wrong i've had some good refs but even when i played in the ncaa tournament and even in the final four the refs were horrid.

Yeah sometimes you have to go down when a defender dives in, he fooled a ref that was fooled almost the entire night.  It is almost a roll of a dice on how the refs will be when you show up to a game.  Luckily we had some good refs when we won a National Championship!!