2016 D3 Season: NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

[Mr.Right]

Trinity(TX) and Colorado College all tied up at 0-0 at Halftime. Bubble teams should be rooting for Trinity here because I do not think Colorado College has the resume to get a Pool C.

[PaulNewman]

Bubble teams in unison thanking Haverford, Kenyon, UMass-Boston, Amherst, Trinity...There was a point yesterday when Haverford and Kenyon were both losing 1-0.  Trinity comes back from a deficit late to break Colorado College's heart in double OT.

Messiah and Christopher Newport winning didn't hurt either although CNU likely would have been sweating as well.

[PaulNewman]

Congrats to Springfield and Maryville for making the tournament as the highest profile non-rankable teams with sterling seasons rewarded with NCAA AQs.  Also a nod to Geneva, St. Norbert, St Josephs (ME), Penn State-Behrend and Texas-Dallas.  I think St. Thomas was in regardless but congrats to the them for achieving the MIAC double and first NCAA appearance since 1995.

The much anticipated Wheaton (Ill) season ended last night in a CCIW finals loss to a formidable Carthage squad.  Certainly not the season any of us could have anticipated for the Thunder.

[blue_jays]

Congrats to Springfield and Maryville for making the tournament as the highest profile non-rankable teams with sterling seasons rewarded with NCAA AQs.  Also a nod to Geneva, St. Norbert, St Josephs (ME), Penn State-Behrend and Texas-Dallas.  I think St. Thomas was in regardless but congrats to the them for achieving the MIAC double and first NCAA appearance since 1995.

The much anticipated Wheaton (Ill) season ended last night in a CCIW finals loss to a formidable Carthage squad.  Certainly not the season any of us could have anticipated for the Thunder.

Wheaton lost one of its greatest senior classes in school history with 3 of them playing professionally after college. The fact they took a step back was inevitable, although the early season losses and ties were a bit shocking considering they've rolled those same teams in the past. Could be a couple years before they get back on the national stage.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

MAF Pool C Projections

In no order...
1. Rowan
2. Newark
3. Babson
4. Brandeis
5. Tufts
6. Middlebury
7. Oneonta St
8. Rochester
9. St. Lawrence
10. F&M
11. Etown
12. W&L
13. DePauw
14. CMU
15. OWU
16. ONU
17. Chapman
18. RIC
19. Wash U
------------------------
Loras
Macalester
Colorado College
Oberlin
Dubuque
Emory
Kean

[PaulNewman]

Post-analysis analysis...

I like the Wheaton (MA) and Williams picks.  I was on to Wheaton (MA) and I started thinking about Williams last night.  Sometimes you're better off not playing.  That said, I don't think we'll be surprised if neither get in.  Hard to see Wheaton jumping from #12 far enough up.  And on what basis does Williams move up when they didn't play?  If the cmte realizes they got a ranking wrong one week do they then correct that the next, or do they tend to stick with their decisions?  Also, does Clark drop out and who does that impact besides Wheaton losing a win?  At any rate, there MAY be two spots open if these two don't get in. 

Never realized until this year how important those bottom rankings are.  In Great Lakes I literally think there should be a tie for that last spot between RHIT, JCU and Wabash.  Wabash has two ranked wins.  And it won't happen but imagine if a good Geneva team (a NCAA team) got ranked, which would help out Oberlin.  And if 3 ranked wins trumps 2 why was CMU ranked above OWU to begin with?

Also a bit confused about whether the cmtes consider the criteria equally or not.  RH has heavily weighted RvR.  And we've talked about a SOS threshold.  But what about when a team has a massive advantage on winning pct?  Does 3 ranked winds really trump 2 wins when some other variable is more heavily in another team's favor?  And does RHIT's ranked win over Hanover count more than JCU's two draws with ONU?

And does the national cmte jump around on criteria....like RvR is huge or winning pct is huge UNLESS there is regional imbalance?  How would one pick, without consideration of regional overload (i.e. too man picks from a region) between, let's say, Loras and Oberlin?  If we switched the stat lines between Loras and Oberlin who do we think would get in?  And what about Chapman?  In a blind test, does one really pick Chapman over Oberlin?

In very tight cases do the cmtes ever consider "good losses"?  Oberlin took Kenyon to double OT TWICE, proving they can compete with one of the better teams in the country.  And then there is the factor that some teams don't benefit from making their tournaments because of arbitrary reasons.  Midd drew unranked Hamilton in the semis and so couldn't add a ranked win even if Midd won while competitors Tufts and Williams were on the sidelines.  Same with Oberlin getting Wabash in the semis.  If Wabash was ranked that's two more ranked wins.

Also, a SOS of .560ish can't solid or good enough in one instance and then low or well below average in other cases.

One has to wonder if the national cmte ever reaches a point where they ask, "look, who just on a gut level seems more deserving."  It's also one thing not to disqualify teams on the basis of not making their tourney (OWU, SLU) or early exits (amazingly Tufts for third year in a row departs in NESCAC quarters), but on the other hand should teams get some at least minor edge or boost from making their tournaments and advancing under tournament-type pressure?

[Shooter McGavin]

Shooters Pool C Picks

I am looking at this as if I were the selection committee. I am going in order and not focused on regional inbalance. I am also using Ryan's classification of teams that he designed nicely for us. +K Ryan! Obviously we don't know the secret rankings and some teams will surely switch around. Based off what we have from the last rankings and the conference tournaments I'll maike my picks with all the above in mind...so here we go!!

1. Rowan
2. Newark
3. F&M
4. W&L
5. Babson
6. Oneonta St
7. Rochester
8. Brandeis
9. DePauw
10. Tufts
11. Middlebury
12. OWU (think they will jump CMU in secret rankings)
13. Chapman
14. St. Lawrence (hard to judge when they get slotted)
15. Etown
16. CMU
17. Wash U
18. Loras
19. ONU (Could be the Etown of 2015--not surprised if they get snubbed)
-------------------------------------------------
RIC
Oberlin
Macalester
Colorado College
Emory

[PaulNewman]

Shooter, how did you get a copy of the cmte's final selections, lol?

Looks like you might have nailed it.  If accurate, SLU, Loras and Wash U should cry tears of joy.  If Loras, Wash U and Chapman get in I think it's at least partly for regional balance nationally.

Anybody think that it matters that one of the selection show sites is Wash U?  I doubt it, but could be awkward if doesn't go the Bears' way.

[PaulNewman]

NCAC NE Top 15 (NCAA Tourney Edition)

1) Chicago
2) Messiah
3) Amherst
4) Kenyon
5) Trinity (TX)
6) Rowan
7) Carthage
8) Cortland St
9) Calvin
10) Rutgers-Newark
11) UMass-Boston
12) Haverford
13) Ohio Northern
14) Springfield
15) Christopher Newport/Montclair St (TIE)

NCAC NE Pool C

1) Rowan
2) Rutgers-Newark
3) F&M
4) W&L
5) Brandeis
6) Babson
7) Rochester
8) Oneonta St
9) Ohio Northern
10) Tufts
11) Carnegie Mellon
12) Middlebury
13) Elizabethtown
14) DePauw
15) OWU
16) Wheaton (MA)
17) Oberlin
18) Wash U
19) Chapman or Loras

---------------------------------------------

SLU
RIC
Bowdoin
Williams
Emory
Macalester
Colorado Coll

[gustiefan04]

Curious as to the rationale behind posters putting Loras ahead of Macalester in the Pool C running?

Loras was one position higher than MAC in the Nov. 2 regional rankings. Their overall record and RvR will be below that of MAC's going into the selection meeting. Loras will only have a slightly better SOS. After the conference tournaments played out - MAC lost a close one to the #1 team in the region in the MIAC final, while Loras lost to an unranked Luther side. - It is possible that MAC might actually jump Loras in the last rankings, to be published today.

Either way, I think both teams could very well end of on the wrong side of the bubble this year.

[Shooter McGavin]

Curious as to the rationale behind posters putting Loras ahead of Macalester in the Pool C running?

Loras was one position higher than MAC in the Nov. 2 regional rankings. Their overall record and RvR will be below that of MAC's going into the selection meeting. Loras will only have a slightly better SOS. After the conference tournaments played out - MAC lost a close one to the #1 team in the region in the MIAC final, while Loras lost to an unranked Luther side. - It is possible that MAC might actually jump Loras in the last rankings, to be published today.

Either way, I think both teams could very well end of on the wrong side of the bubble this year.

Loras to an unranked team will help in the RvR by NOT picking up another loss there, but will hurt the SOS slightly as to where Macalester will pick up another RvR loss which will not help but will give a slight boost to the SOS. It's a toss up and I think both will stay where they are from last week's rankings.

[Shooter McGavin]

Shooter, how did you get a copy of the cmte's final selections, lol?

Looks like you might have nailed it.  If accurate, SLU, Loras and Wash U should cry tears of joy.  If Loras, Wash U and Chapman get in I think it's at least partly for regional balance nationally.

Anybody think that it matters that one of the selection show sites is Wash U?  I doubt it, but could be awkward if doesn't go the Bears' way.

LOL I have my ways  Will be interested to see how close it gets. There are always surprises so one surprise I could see happening is a team like Hobart sneaking in due to a high SOS and decent RvR compared to teams like Loras or Macalester who have 0 wins vs ranked and a high SOS and similar winning % Emory is another that could burst some bubbles.

[PaulNewman]

Curious as to the rationale behind posters putting Loras ahead of Macalester in the Pool C running?

Loras was one position higher than MAC in the Nov. 2 regional rankings. Their overall record and RvR will be below that of MAC's going into the selection meeting. Loras will only have a slightly better SOS. After the conference tournaments played out - MAC lost a close one to the #1 team in the region in the MIAC final, while Loras lost to an unranked Luther side. - It is possible that MAC might actually jump Loras in the last rankings, to be published today.

Either way, I think both teams could very well end of on the wrong side of the bubble this year.

Great question.  Very, very tight between those two.  Loras WILL pick up another ranked loss but also a needed win as Luther almost certainly will be ranked again.  So then one could argue that Loras has the one vital ranked win that Mac doesn't, which again raises a question about whether any credit (and how so) is given for ranked draws.  Feels like part of what is going on is that none of us can really imagine Loras not in the tournament and one wonders if name recognition plays even a tiny role in these way too close to call cases.

[Falconer]

Congrats to Springfield and Maryville for making the tournament as the highest profile non-rankable teams with sterling seasons rewarded with NCAA AQs.  Also a nod to Geneva, St. Norbert, St Josephs (ME), Penn State-Behrend and Texas-Dallas.  I think St. Thomas was in regardless but congrats to the them for achieving the MIAC double and first NCAA appearance since 1995.

The much anticipated Wheaton (Ill) season ended last night in a CCIW finals loss to a formidable Carthage squad.  Certainly not the season any of us could have anticipated for the Thunder.

Wheaton lost one of its greatest senior classes in school history with 3 of them playing professionally after college. The fact they took a step back was inevitable, although the early season losses and ties were a bit shocking considering they've rolled those same teams in the past. Could be a couple years before they get back on the national stage.

As many here will recall, following the 2014 season a very talented sophomore at Messiah, Danny Brandt (son of former coach David Brandt), transferred at first for just a few days to Louisville, then (I believe) for spring 2015 to a community college, then for fall 2015 to Florida Atlantic University (a D2 school) where he had to sit out the season, then finally to Wheaton where he played only 4 games this fall (with 2 starts) and scored just one goal--the only goal in the regular season loss to North Park.

Does anyone know his status for 2017 and perhaps even 2018?  I assume he had a major injury of some sort this fall, since he must have been one of the best players on the Thunder squad this year.  Is this assumption correct?  I'd love to see him return to form before he graduates.  Ironically, had he stayed put at Messiah, he'd be part of a team with a solid chance for another Final Four, and no doubt he'd be an important part of that story.  Perhaps he will help Wheaton get back to the tournament next fall...

[Brother Flounder]

Congrats to Springfield and Maryville for making the tournament as the highest profile non-rankable teams with sterling seasons rewarded with NCAA AQs.  Also a nod to Geneva, St. Norbert, St Josephs (ME), Penn State-Behrend and Texas-Dallas.  I think St. Thomas was in regardless but congrats to the them for achieving the MIAC double and first NCAA appearance since 1995.

The much anticipated Wheaton (Ill) season ended last night in a CCIW finals loss to a formidable Carthage squad.  Certainly not the season any of us could have anticipated for the Thunder.

Wheaton lost one of its greatest senior classes in school history with 3 of them playing professionally after college. The fact they took a step back was inevitable, although the early season losses and ties were a bit shocking considering they've rolled those same teams in the past. Could be a couple years before they get back on the national stage.

As many here will recall, following the 2014 season a very talented sophomore at Messiah, Danny Brandt (son of former coach David Brandt), transferred at first for just a few days to Louisville, then (I believe) for spring 2015 to a community college, then for fall 2015 to Florida Atlantic University (a D2 school) where he had to sit out the season, then finally to Wheaton where he played only 4 games this fall (with 2 starts) and scored just one goal--the only goal in the regular season loss to North Park.

Does anyone know his status for 2017 and perhaps even 2018?  I assume he had a major injury of some sort this fall, since he must have been one of the best players on the Thunder squad this year.  Is this assumption correct?  I'd love to see him return to form before he graduates.  Ironically, had he stayed put at Messiah, he'd be part of a team with a solid chance for another Final Four, and no doubt he'd be an important part of that story.  Perhaps he will help Wheaton get back to the tournament next fall...

Falconer, do u know why there were so many changes in such a short period of time? It seems quite unusual....