2016 D3 Season: NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

[PaulNewman]

Regional rankings are up....

RH and I were both wrong....in GL Kenyon, DPU, Hanover, CMU, OWU, ONU, Oberlin, RHIT.

Wheaton was next in line in NE at #6, with Williams at #7 and Midd at #8.

Kean got in from #7 spot in SA.

Redlands did come in at #2 in West helping out Chapman at #3.

In North, Dubuque was #5 and Loras at #6.


7 out of 8 South Atlantic teams in tourney with only #8 Emory left out.

6 of 8 in Great Lakes and looks like ONU was one of last, if not he last, teams in.

Springfield finally ranked in New England at #11.

Looks like maybe Wheaton (MA) was first team out.

[SandyMac]

Question for all the D3 historic junkies out there:

On paper, when was the last time we saw a team end the season with such an impressive on-paper resume as Chicago had this year? (Undefeated; .971 win%; .642 SOS; 8-0-1 RVR)?

SLU in 2011, 16-0-0 regular season, 4 top 25 wins.

[Brother Flounder]

On another note, surprised to see that Midd. got snubbed again. Wow. That said, I remember we were talking of their SoS being less-than-great last year, and - anecdotally speaking - I didn't see any major changes in terms of out-of-conference tests being added to their schedule this year. Could be wrong.

Yes.  I think Middlebury will have to start playing a harder non-conference schedule.  Congrats the seniors on the team for their careers.

[firstplaceloser]

Messiahs bracket is LOADED. and 4 NJAC teams making it is unreal! congrats to all teams who qualified. this is when the fun begins!

[PaulNewman]

Midd's SOS was high enough.  They just failed to get needed results against Bates, Colby, Hamilton, etc.  They got reprieve after reprieve and did not take advantage.  Interesting that the differences between Tufts and Midd over the past 4 years were probably pretty slight and yet one barely sneaks in 3 years in a row while Midd barely misses 3 years in a row.  One senior group wins a national title and has tow more NCAA trips while the Midd seniors never get to taste NCAA play.  Slight shades of difference, which is how I feel for Oberlin right now.  One or two games just a bit different, one more team ranked that didn't get ranked, etc, etc.  Hard to swallow.

[4samuy]

WOW.  Both Chicago men and women hosting. Can't believe that has happened very often

[Sandy]

Question for all the D3 historic junkies out there:

On paper, when was the last time we saw a team end the season with such an impressive on-paper resume as Chicago had this year? (Undefeated; .971 win%; .642 SOS; 8-0-1 RVR)?

SLU in 2011, 16-0-0 regular season, 4 top 25 wins.

Good times, good times.

[Falconer]

And the committee again has Messiah going thru Montclair St. or Christopher Newport.

The next pod down is pretty strong: Carnegie Mellon-Ohio Wesleyan-Calvin-Ohio Northern

Besides the 1st round game (2nd time in four years they got Centenary), Messiah got no favors for being one of only two remaining undefeated teams.  Looking at other places where Messiah could have been slotted in, Cortland State and F&M got what looks like easier pathes to the Elite 8.

Since Lucas Terci of MSU (who has 28 goals) got a red card, his second of the season, in the NJAC semi-final game, he misses their first tournament game vs CNU.  Correct?  If so that's a huge loss, but he knows whom to blame for it.

[Ryan Harmanis]

Two big misses for me:

(1) Dubuque. They were down at 6th in the North last week and lost 4-0 in midweek. I forgot to take into account Luther coming back into the rankings, which gave Dubuque a 2-1 RvR. Then the head-to-head over Loras made the difference.

(2) New England region. I thought the 4-1 RvR and high SOS would get Wheaton (Mass.) in, which would allow Williams and Middlebury to get on the board. My guess is that Wheaton's seven losses and nine blemishes were just too many, and the committee didn't go for it. So while Williams and Middlebury could have matched up favorably with many teams that got in - they have similar profiles to OWU, Kean, Wash. U., etc. - they never even came up for discussion.

Throw in Kean, but that's less surprising.

I wonder if regional balance played any role. In 2015 the West got zero bids, and in 2013 the West and Central both missed out. Dubuque and Chapman were at the edge of the bubble.

[PaulNewman]

Let's take a spin around the four quadrants. 

First, let's compare potential Sweet 16 match-ups according to highest national rankings (which we know won't hold but which should give one window into the relative competitiveness of each quadrant).

Chicago -- Chicago vs DePauw; Carthage vs St Thomas

Rowan -- Rowan vs Haverford; Trinity vs Kenyon

Amherst -- Amherst vs Babson/Brandeis; Rutgers-Newark vs Oneonta St

Messiah -- Messiah vs Calvin; Cortland St vs Franklin & Marshall

Chicago certainly isn't immune to an upset but I think most will agree their road looks the most doable.

After that, most would favor the chances for Amherst and Messiah getting through.  There are definitely teams that could knock them off, but I don't see any game where they wouldn't be clearly favored, especially with a home field advantage that is significant for both.

I would argue that the Rowan quadrant is the most wide open.  I'm not sure who I would pick.  Rowan may be a little skittish after late season losses and especially the 3-0 loss to Montclair (even though Rowan knows they still dominated the stats).  Haverford is very battle tested and used to playing tough NJAC teams and no doubt feels like they have unfinished business from last year.  Trinity is 20-1 and in the Elite 8 virtually every year.  Enough said.  I'd feel better about Kenyon's chances of getting to Trinity if they had their pod at home, but they don't and they will have to fight like crazy to get out of Lynchburg still alive against two teams that have lost a total of 3 games all year combined.  At any rate, I don't think Rowan is the clear favorite in this quad the way we might have thought just 2-3 weeks ago.

Going deeper, let's take a closer look at the Messiah quad.  The Falcons might face their toughest test of the quad versus the winner of the Montclair-CNU game.  CNU is usually very talented but I'd be more worried about a very emotional and talented MSU team with a chip on its shoulder, something to prove, and a star player returning who surely is looking to either make amends or double down in some way to prove his own point (and I'm not even sure what that means but as the jingle goes "I just know it's true."

The Carnegie Mellon pod might be the most balanced and the best first weekend venue for any neutral to attend.  All four will feel like they got stuck with too many really good, high reputation-type teams, but all four also will feel like they can advance.  I would actually give CMU the least chance of moving on.  If OWU gets by CMU they won't feel like they can't beat ONU or Calvin even if either of the latter might be slightly favored.  Any of these four could advance out of weekend.  If Messiah gets upset, the survivor of the CMU weekend will have a decent chance against Montclair or Newport else, but I don't think they can handle the Falcons especially if it's in Grantham.

In the lower part of the Messiah quad and a first round upset wouldn't be shocking as Morrisville and PS-Behrend will show up to win.  If they do get by the underdogs I would like Scranton's chances against Cortland unless Cortland really does have a decided home field advantage.  In the other pod, F&M should get by Geneva and may benefit from SLU and W&L wearing each other out in a tight game that easily could go the distance.  SLU or W&L could get out of the weekend but the advantage has to go with F&M on home turf.  After all that, I don't see Cortland, Scranton, W&L, SLU or even F&M troubling Messiah while any of those would have a fair shot against anyone else from the other side.

In the Chicago quad, DePauw could give the Maroons a decent game but DPU has a ton of work to do to get there and may not make it.  Wash U tied Chicago but seem to up and down recently to match that effort twice.  I don't know Luther, St. Norbert or St. Thomas well enough to know if they could present any serious challenge to Chicago but I doubt any of those teams strike fear in Maroon hearts.  I DO think Carthage, having the benefit of the earlier game to study, could give Chicago a real challenge, but they'll have to get through three  hard games just to get a chance.  That's a part of the bracket that I could see really open up with someone like UW-W emerging in the Elite 8.  On the other hand, UW-W will be a popular upset special in the 1st round.

In the Amherst group, Babson vs Brandeis could be an early round classic but while each is capable of pushing Amherst I don't see either knocking the Lord Jeffs out in the Sweet 16.  On the other side, I could see RUN struggling with the E'town-Vassar winner in the 2nd round.  Hard to bet against Oneonta St finding its groove, and that is the one team that would love to get another shot against Amherst.  RUN also could really challenge Amherst but I just don't see them getting through the two games they'd have to win to get the opportunity.  Hard, though, to see anyone but Amherst walking off their own field with a Final Four ticket.

Back to the Rowan group...Tufts vs Springfield is very compelling, and certainly Rowan vs Tufts would be one of the most watched 2nd round games.  UMass-Boston vs Kean also is intriguing.  On first glance I like UMass-Boston to advance but then again I'm not sure a NJAC team is the best way for the Beacons to start a run.  UMass needs to stay focused and not get lost in a chippy affair.  I say that not knowing how chippy Kean is but they still are a NJAC team that will not be intimidated by or impressed with the flair of UMass.  They also may sense that can get under UMass' skin.  I'd love to see UMass move on because Haverford vs UMass would be another must-see game.  Trinity has to be the heavy favorite in its pod on its home field but Whitworth has recent tourney experience and isn't a crazy pick for an upset.  That's a tough 1st game for a team as highly rated as Trinity.  Same with the Texas-Dallas-Chapman game which should be a good one.  In the other pod, Lynchburg is a great darkhorse pick to reach the Elite 8.  Two games at home in a 3000 seat stadium brimming with home support and the momentum from an exhilarating ODAC tourney victory, and then being pumped in the Sweet 16 to face the winner of the Trinity pod.  Lynchburg drew with Messiah and has only lost ONCE.  John Carroll, however, isn't some deer-in-the-headlights outfit.  They will come to play riding momentum.  I'm sort of glad Kenyon is getting out of Gambier and I think they'll respond well to the Lynchburg environment.  The problem is I'm not sure if anyone knows just how good this Maryville team may be.  They have drubbed some very good teams and they have the inspiration that only years of knowing you won't get an at-large bid builds inside you when you feel disrespected and overlooked.  I don't want Maryville to become "a story," but that might well happen.  If Kenyon can get through the Scots then surely a game with Lynchburg will be a taut affair that goes to the wire.  If it's Kenyon and JCU they'll wonder why they're playing each other down in cured country ham country.

[Mr.Right]

My opinion:

This whole process has been dictated by geography and saving money..


I am New England biased but I say New England and Nescac really got the shaft. Whoever led the New England Committee did not put up much of an argument or did and was completely overruled and "soft". Either way you have teams with 2-3-4 ranked wins and SOS's of at or close to .600 not get in and teams out West and Central / Great Lakes / South Atlantic take New England bids. The most represented region with the most teams gets ONLY 3 POOL C's. I think 4 and even 5 would be more appropriate.

Nescac teams have won the last 2 NCAA Championships and been represented in almost every NCAA Final 4 since 2007. Yet Nescac gets 1 Pool C and the UAA gets 4 Pool C's and year after year they get NOWHERE. UAA teams have FAILED miserably on THE BIG STAGE. Personally, after watching the NJAC a lot this season I do not mind the 3 Pool C's. They deserve it. RUN, MSU and Rowan are damn good teams and while I have not seen Kean this year they did well enough in their conference to deserve to get in. No problems with the NJAC and 3 Pool C's. However, for Nescac, 1 out of Bowdoin / Williams / Midd should have gotten a Pool C. They each beat each other up and that hurt but the league deserves at least 2 Pool C's.

I saw it coming a week ago when BOTH SLU and Rochester limped to the end of their respective seasons and DID NOT DROP in their Rankings. The fix was IN. SLU and UR should not be dancing. Frankly, if this was not such a down year normally a resume like Oneonta's would be considered a bubble resume. I am quite confident had Vassar drew with Skidmore and lost in PK's they would be OUT. I am not a Vassar fan but they would have been left out in favor of a team in their own conference that barely beat them and did not even make their own conference tournament and also left out for a team they slammed in UR 3-0. Oh Well...

So Nescac has Amherst and Tufts. Amherst has a VERY EASY draw until the Elite 8 and THEY WILL NEED IT. Serpone knows this is his worst Amherst side in years with a leaky defense compared to their best teams and horrific GK'ing. BUT who is going to beat them? Babson? Babson looked down right awful against Wheaton(MA) in the Newmac Semi's and are absolutely anemic up front. They cannot beat good teams. They have 3 very solid midfielders and that is it. I wouldn't be surprised to see them lose in the 1st round. Brandeis has played VERY WELL at the end of the year and deserved their bid. However ironically this might be Brandeis weakest side since 2012 and this will be their best chance to beat Amherst. Amherst has weaknesses that can be exploited but can this Brandeis side exploit them. Not sure. RUN at Amherst would be a great Elite 8 match-up and I would favor RUN BUT they will not be playing on their coveted carpet. They would be playing on Amherst grass field. I think a Tufts/ Rowan matchup in the 2nd round would be fantastic but Springfield(A Poor man's Amherst) will make it tough for Tufts to score as they WHACK everything in sight and are downright UGLY to watch.

I will be rooting for UMASS Boston and they will be a tough out with their beast of a striker in Williamson. Ommadawn stated this and i fully agree that you need a stud or 2 in the NCAA's to put their teams on their back and get a goal when needed or a stop when needed. That is why I loved Skidmore this season. UMASS Boston has that and if they get by Kean I think they could beat Haverford. It would be a challenge but doable. Frankly, for a team ranked 2nd in New England they got screwed not only for not hosting but their pod is very difficult. They should of had a much easier 1st round / 2nd Round game then they got.

Cortland State who I saw once this season against Oneonta and was not impressed at all. Maybe it was a one off but Oneonta dominated then in the regular season game I saw. Cortland got the easiest 1st / 2nd Round games besides the 2 "bye" teams in Amherst and Chicago. SLU got off easy as well as I think F&M and W&L are overrated and Durocher stuck his team in a draw they could get out of if they play to their potential.

[wingtips2]

And no Middlebury???  Again?  SLU over Midd?  Kean over Midd?  Wash U over Midd?  Dubuque???

The NESCAC, and NE in general, had a year where there was a lot of parity (to put it nicely). Other regions - Great Lakes being one - were given more bids as a result.

[wingtips2]

And the committee again has Messiah going thru Montclair St. or Christopher Newport.

The next pod down is pretty strong: Carnegie Mellon-Ohio Wesleyan-Calvin-Ohio Northern

Besides the 1st round game (2nd time in four years they got Centenary), Messiah got no favors for being one of only two remaining undefeated teams.  Looking at other places where Messiah could have been slotted in, Cortland State and F&M got what looks like easier pathes to the Elite 8.

At least OWU won't have to suffer an upset in the first round...

[PaulNewman]

Rowan group has 6 in D3 soccer top 15. Messiah has 5. Chicago and Amherst have two each (so one other than themselves).

[firstplaceloser]

And the committee again has Messiah going thru Montclair St. or Christopher Newport.

The next pod down is pretty strong: Carnegie Mellon-Ohio Wesleyan-Calvin-Ohio Northern

Besides the 1st round game (2nd time in four years they got Centenary), Messiah got no favors for being one of only two remaining undefeated teams.  Looking at other places where Messiah could have been slotted in, Cortland State and F&M got what looks like easier pathes to the Elite 8.

At least OWU won't have to suffer an upset in the first round...

nothing like a little ncaa tourney banter before we kick off