2016 D3 Season: NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

[NEPAFAN]

Mr. Right, not a  fan of the Landmark Champs Scranton Royals?

[Brother Flounder]

My opinion:

This whole process has been dictated by geography and saving money..


I am New England biased but I say New England and Nescac really got the shaft. Whoever led the New England Committee did not put up much of an argument or did and was completely overruled and "soft". Either way you have teams with 2-3-4 ranked wins and SOS's of at or close to .600 not get in and teams out West and Central / Great Lakes / South Atlantic take New England bids. The most represented region with the most teams gets ONLY 3 POOL C's. I think 4 and even 5 would be more appropriate.

Nescac teams have won the last 2 NCAA Championships and been represented in almost every NCAA Final 4 since 2007. Yet Nescac gets 1 Pool C and the UAA gets 4 Pool C's and year after year they get NOWHERE. UAA teams have FAILED miserably on THE BIG STAGE. Personally, after watching the NJAC a lot this season I do not mind the 3 Pool C's. They deserve it. RUN, MSU and Rowan are damn good teams and while I have not seen Kean this year they did well enough in their conference to deserve to get in. No problems with the NJAC and 3 Pool C's. However, for Nescac, 1 out of Bowdoin / Williams / Midd should have gotten a Pool C. They each beat each other up and that hurt but the league deserves at least 2 Pool C's.

I saw it coming a week ago when BOTH SLU and Rochester limped to the end of their respective seasons and DID NOT DROP in their Rankings. The fix was IN. SLU and UR should not be dancing. Frankly, if this was not such a down year normally a resume like Oneonta's would be considered a bubble resume. I am quite confident had Vassar drew with Skidmore and lost in PK's they would be OUT. I am not a Vassar fan but they would have been left out in favor of a team in their own conference that barely beat them and did not even make their own conference tournament and also left out for a team they slammed in UR 3-0. Oh Well...

So Nescac has Amherst and Tufts. Amherst has a VERY EASY draw until the Elite 8 and THEY WILL NEED IT. Serpone knows this is his worst Amherst side in years with a leaky defense compared to their best teams and horrific GK'ing. BUT who is going to beat them? Babson? Babson looked down right awful against Wheaton(MA) in the Newmac Semi's and are absolutely anemic up front. They cannot beat good teams. They have 3 very solid midfielders and that is it. I wouldn't be surprised to see them lose in the 1st round. Brandeis has played VERY WELL at the end of the year and deserved their bid. However ironically this might be Brandeis weakest side since 2012 and this will be their best chance to beat Amherst. Amherst has weaknesses that can be exploited but can this Brandeis side exploit them. Not sure. RUN at Amherst would be a great Elite 8 match-up and I would favor RUN BUT they will not be playing on their coveted carpet. They would be playing on Amherst grass field. I think a Tufts/ Rowan matchup in the 2nd round would be fantastic but Springfield(A Poor man's Amherst) will make it tough for Tufts to score as they WHACK everything in sight and are downright UGLY to watch.

I will be rooting for UMASS Boston and they will be a tough out with their beast of a striker in Williamson. Ommadawn stated this and i fully agree that you need a stud or 2 in the NCAA's to put their teams on their back and get a goal when needed or a stop when needed. That is why I loved Skidmore this season. UMASS Boston has that and if they get by Kean I think they could beat Haverford. It would be a challenge but doable. Frankly, for a team ranked 2nd in New England they got screwed not only for not hosting but their pod is very difficult. They should of had a much easier 1st round / 2nd Round game then they got.

Cortland State who I saw once this season against Oneonta and was not impressed at all. Maybe it was a one off but Oneonta dominated then in the regular season game I saw. Cortland got the easiest 1st / 2nd Round games besides the 2 "bye" teams in Amherst and Chicago. SLU got off easy as well as I think F&M and W&L are overrated and Durocher stuck his team in a draw they could get out of if they play to their potential.

Right I have to agree with your analysis on this one.  NESCAC should have received 3.  It's GAME ON time....

[Shooter McGavin]

The parity of the tournament this year is unbelievable. A down year as some mentioned because a resume like Oneonta, I think was the exmaple, would be a MAJOR bubble team in past years and most likely not have gotten in. The favorites are the favorites for a reason but I would not be surprised to see the Final 4 lack any of the "#1" seeds.

[PaulNewman]

NESCAC absolutely deserved at least 3 and maybe 4, especially seeing the UAA also filled with a bunch of shaky records get 5, the NCAC 3, and the South Atlantic 7 out of their total of 8 ranked teams.  The problem is that no individual team in the NESCAC other than Amherst clearly deserved to be in.  Even Tufts would not have had a huge complaint if left out with a 9-5-2 record and backing in with two straight losses.  Williams probably only needed a draw with Midd in their last game and a win likely would have sealed a bid.  Midd gets in if they win just one more regular season game they should have won and then beats Hamilton on a neutral field.  Bowdoin came on strong at the end but too late.  Also think RH's theory has some merit.  They may have suffered by Wheaton rising so high but having a profile that didn't get Wheaton off the board for the cmte to present any of the NESCAC trio left out.  Wheaton has got to be the only team with 4 ranked wins denied a bid but unfortunately they weren't even on the bid radar until the final week or so of the season.

[blooter442]

My opinion:

This whole process has been dictated by geography and saving money..


I am New England biased but I say New England and Nescac really got the shaft. Whoever led the New England Committee did not put up much of an argument or did and was completely overruled and "soft". Either way you have teams with 2-3-4 ranked wins and SOS's of at or close to .600 not get in and teams out West and Central / Great Lakes / South Atlantic take New England bids. The most represented region with the most teams gets ONLY 3 POOL C's. I think 4 and even 5 would be more appropriate.

Nescac teams have won the last 2 NCAA Championships and been represented in almost every NCAA Final 4 since 2007. Yet Nescac gets 1 Pool C and the UAA gets 4 Pool C's and year after year they get NOWHERE. UAA teams have FAILED miserably on THE BIG STAGE. Personally, after watching the NJAC a lot this season I do not mind the 3 Pool C's. They deserve it. RUN, MSU and Rowan are damn good teams and while I have not seen Kean this year they did well enough in their conference to deserve to get in. No problems with the NJAC and 3 Pool C's. However, for Nescac, 1 out of Bowdoin / Williams / Midd should have gotten a Pool C. They each beat each other up and that hurt but the league deserves at least 2 Pool C's.

I saw it coming a week ago when BOTH SLU and Rochester limped to the end of their respective seasons and DID NOT DROP in their Rankings. The fix was IN. SLU and UR should not be dancing. Frankly, if this was not such a down year normally a resume like Oneonta's would be considered a bubble resume. I am quite confident had Vassar drew with Skidmore and lost in PK's they would be OUT. I am not a Vassar fan but they would have been left out in favor of a team in their own conference that barely beat them and did not even make their own conference tournament and also left out for a team they slammed in UR 3-0. Oh Well...

So Nescac has Amherst and Tufts. Amherst has a VERY EASY draw until the Elite 8 and THEY WILL NEED IT. Serpone knows this is his worst Amherst side in years with a leaky defense compared to their best teams and horrific GK'ing. BUT who is going to beat them? Babson? Babson looked down right awful against Wheaton(MA) in the Newmac Semi's and are absolutely anemic up front. They cannot beat good teams. They have 3 very solid midfielders and that is it. I wouldn't be surprised to see them lose in the 1st round. Brandeis has played VERY WELL at the end of the year and deserved their bid. However ironically this might be Brandeis weakest side since 2012 and this will be their best chance to beat Amherst. Amherst has weaknesses that can be exploited but can this Brandeis side exploit them. Not sure. RUN at Amherst would be a great Elite 8 match-up and I would favor RUN BUT they will not be playing on their coveted carpet. They would be playing on Amherst grass field. I think a Tufts/ Rowan matchup in the 2nd round would be fantastic but Springfield(A Poor man's Amherst) will make it tough for Tufts to score as they WHACK everything in sight and are downright UGLY to watch.

I will be rooting for UMASS Boston and they will be a tough out with their beast of a striker in Williamson. Ommadawn stated this and i fully agree that you need a stud or 2 in the NCAA's to put their teams on their back and get a goal when needed or a stop when needed. That is why I loved Skidmore this season. UMASS Boston has that and if they get by Kean I think they could beat Haverford. It would be a challenge but doable. Frankly, for a team ranked 2nd in New England they got screwed not only for not hosting but their pod is very difficult. They should of had a much easier 1st round / 2nd Round game then they got.

Cortland State who I saw once this season against Oneonta and was not impressed at all. Maybe it was a one off but Oneonta dominated then in the regular season game I saw. Cortland got the easiest 1st / 2nd Round games besides the 2 "bye" teams in Amherst and Chicago. SLU got off easy as well as I think F&M and W&L are overrated and Durocher stuck his team in a draw they could get out of if they play to their potential.

Well said Right. +K.

The one ironic thing is that, for a while, it did not seem like a down year - anecdotally speaking, I observed that there were a lot of unbeaten and untied teams much later than usual. How things can change quickly. In fact, that was part of the reason I figured Brandeis would be out after losing to Wheaton in September and being 3-3-1 at that point: while I did think that parity would increase and that some teams would come back to Earth, I didn't see most of the teams with good records dropping off so significantly. Midd. took until 10/8 to lose its first game, at which point it was 6-0-2 and Williams was 5-0-1 when it dropped its first game on 9/24. I figured both teams would lose two, maybe three games tops in the regular season, but the parity of the NESCAC - for better or worse - became evident as the season went on.

The one team I did think would drop off, and I made this pretty clear, would be Rochester. They certainly won more games than last year, but they flattered to deceive in my opinion - in their 16 game schedule, they had no real significant tests in their first 8 aside from RPI, who they drew with, and emerged from that stretch 7-0-1. Their second 8, however, saw them go 2-4-2. In the end, they had a .616 SoS and 4-3-1 RvR, so I can see why the committee picked them. That said, I felt that they were the one team who would drop off in the second half of the season.

Now I certainly can't complain about teams having average records and still getting into the NCAA Tournament, as it would be hypocritical considering the Brandeis men had a very average record this year. Even considering the loss to NYU, Brandeis probably deserved its bid, although I may well be biased, as did Rochester. Even myself, the resident Rochester critic can admit that the Yellowjackets, whose RvR and SoS was the best of the UAA Pool C candidates, perhaps deserved to get in.

However, even considering that geographic diversity is the primary reason that the UAA gets so many teams in, I can sympathize with - and even agree with - those who feel that the UAA is over-represented. For example, Carnegie Mellon: 1-2-2 RvR and a .556 SoS is poor, even considering a 12-3-2 record. Same with WashU's .589 and 2-4-2. In the end, I think that Carnegie and WashU should have been left out, and I personally would have taken Williams and Midd. in their places.

The one other team that had me scratching my head was Dubuque - 13-5 with a .542 SoS and 2-1-0 RvR. Hey, good for Dubuque for getting its first bid in program history, but I do think there were some other, perhaps more deserving candidates.

[lastguyoffthebench]

Kean... This years RPI.   7th in NJAC, misses conference playoffs and makes the dance.

MSU really lose their CM? They should struggle vs CNU but on a good day can beat Messiah.  Gotta love it.   I think RUN makes the deepest run out of the league

Tufts upset over Rowan, if they can counter (still a strong point for them? Haven't seen them this year).

I've been out of if this year with high school games every day.   

[Mr.Right]

Mr. Right, not a  fan of the Landmark Champs Scranton Royals?

Never seen them play but to be honest I am not expecting much. I realize that makes no sense but I have been around long to kind of know what to expect. maybe and hopefully for you they prove me wrong. I will try to tune into the game to see for myself if there are not other games in that time slot that interest me more.

[Mr.Right]

The Dubuque At-Large is a joke but I am guessing that because their North region only has 6 ranked teams you only have half as many opportunities to pick up ranked wins compared to New England who has 12 ranked teams. So my guess is that all of a sudden a Ranked Win in regions with only 5 to 6 teams that can be ranked becomes like 2 or 3 ranked wins in New England or Mid-Atlantic. So their 1 ranked win and 1-0-0 RvR is comparable or better than say iWilliams 2-3-2 RvR. That is my opinion and I could be wrong but I would have no other explanation for it.

NOTE: Luther's AQ win over Loras IMO changed things ALOT. I believe it allowed Wash U to get in(beat Luther 4-0), obviously it eliminated Loras, gave Dubuque it's only ranked win and got them in and eliminated Macalester from getting a Pool C because they beat them. It also eliminated a couple teams from other regions(New England) because of those berths.

NOTE: Wash U got in because of that Luther AQ and beating them and that last game and draw v Chicago. A meaningless game for Chicago really because they had already won the UAA AQ and most likely would still have gotten a 1st Round Bye with a loss to Wash U. Wash U's resume is really unimpressive. They have 2 good wins over Luther and Dominican. I saw Dominican play twice on the stream and they were not a great side IMO and while never seeing Luther they have some questionable results as well. Wash U finished 2-3-2 in the UAA with their 2 wins over CWRU and NYU the 2 weakest teams in the UAA. So their draws against UR and Chicago did the trick. They should not be dancing and I am assuming Redlands will dispatch them in the 1st round.

[NEPAFAN]

Mr. Right, not a  fan of the Landmark Champs Scranton Royals?

Never seen them play but to be honest I am not expecting much. I realize that makes no sense but I have been around long to kind of know what to expect. maybe and hopefully for you they prove me wrong. I will try to tune into the game to see for myself if there are not other games in that time slot that interest me more.

Fair enough, wasn't sure if I was missing something. They were down forever after their success in the 1980s..

[Falconer]

Let's take a spin around the four quadrants. 

BIG SNIP...

After that, most would favor the chances for Amherst and Messiah getting through.  There are definitely teams that could knock them off, but I don't see any game where they wouldn't be clearly favored, especially with a home field advantage that is significant for both.

BIG SNIP...

Going deeper, let's take a closer look at the Messiah quad.  The Falcons might face their toughest test of the quad versus the winner of the Montclair-CNU game.  CNU is usually very talented but I'd be more worried about a very emotional and talented MSU team with a chip on its shoulder, something to prove, and a star player returning who surely is looking to either make amends or double down in some way to prove his own point (and I'm not even sure what that means but as the jingle goes "I just know it's true."

The Carnegie Mellon pod might be the most balanced and the best first weekend venue for any neutral to attend.  All four will feel like they got stuck with too many really good, high reputation-type teams, but all four also will feel like they can advance.  I would actually give CMU the least chance of moving on.  If OWU gets by CMU they won't feel like they can't beat ONU or Calvin even if either of the latter might be slightly favored.  Any of these four could advance out of weekend.  If Messiah gets upset, the survivor of the CMU weekend will have a decent chance against Montclair or Newport else, but I don't think they can handle the Falcons especially if it's in Grantham.

BIG SNIP...

Lynchburg drew with Messiah and has only lost ONCE. 

I edited out most of this to focus on just these comments.  NCAC, let me point out again that the Messiah men will NOT host the sectional, unless the Messiah women lose this weekend--which isn't that likely.  Messiah will probably be on the road for any game with F&M or someone else next weekend.

As for MSU vs CNU, they will have to do it without their best scorer Lucas Terci.  He got his second red card of the season in the NJAC semi-final, as you know.  Doesn't that mean that he misses the NJAC final AND the first round game against CNU?  I didn't check to see if any of the other two MSU players who got red cards will also miss more than one game, but they might.  In any case, without Lucas Terci I don't see them beating CNU for a chance to play Messiah.

Finally, Lynchburg did tie Messiah zip-zip, but as I said at the time they not only parked the bus, they never even got off it.  They literally made no serious effort to score the whole game, whereas the Falcons did.  That was Messiah's second game of the season, long before McCarty knew what he had to work with.  If they had been playing later in the season, once the Falcon offense was clicking, they would have lost.  I was totally unimpressed, leading me to predict (I know I don't usually offer predictions) that Lynchburg would lose to W&L--and they did.  I'm not saying that Lynchburg doesn't belong in the tournament--clearly their record speaks for itself on that.  I am saying only this: don't put very much emphasis on that scoreless tie.  It wouldn't have happened a month later, if they'd played the same way.

[Mr.Right]

Am I missing something because the Messiah women are in Williams' women bracket and if both win I would assume Williams women would host anyway. They are the top team in their regional pod and the Williams men are gone.

[Mr.Right]

With or without Terci MSU should dispatch CNU. I watched CNU in their conference tournament final and MSU is the better team from my eye.

[PaulNewman]

Falconer, I accounted for the home field thing elsewhere I think, stating that I don't see F&M troubling g Messiah regardless of where they play. MSU also just beat Rowan 3-0 without 3 key players, including LT. Possible MSU is chomping at bit to get at Messiah and comes out flat but I wouldn't predict a definite win for CNU. As for Lynchburg,  you have to employ your logic both ways. That was also an early game for Lynchburg and perhaps they are improved as well as their stellar record suggests, and of course they also have what I assume is a pretty good home field advantage.

[Jump4Joy]

WOW.  Both Chicago men and women hosting. Can't believe that has happened very often

Happening at Amherst this year, too, as it has before there.
I'm guessing at Williams, too?
Messiah takes turns, I believe, as they have only the one field.

[Falconer]

Am I missing something because the Messiah women are in Williams' women bracket and if both win I would assume Williams women would host anyway. They are the top team in their regional pod and the Williams men are gone.

As is often the case, Mr Right, you're right. I hadn't considered that very real possibility.  In that case if the Falcons go to the second weekend they are probably playing on their own grass field, which never hurts.