2016 D3 Season: NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

[jknezek]

I heard 3rd hand that Kenyon missed by 20 miles, and so they get to enjoy an 8 hour bus ride to Lynchburg.

Now, now - not that far! I drove from Durham to my home north of Columbus today - 7 and a half hours with three stops (475 miles). Thought about stopping in at Lynchburg. Tell the bus driver that Virginia uses unmarked cars - and they were the only state in which I saw troopers during the 15 hour round trip drive.

There's nothing new about the 500 mile rule. It's part of why home field is a huge advantage. You think Kenyon has it bad? They have the possibility of 2 games in their one trip. Look at the mileage for Sul Ross State to Louisiana College. It's not an issue in soccer, but many other ASC sports. Conference game that requires an 800 mile bus trip. Supposedly 12 hours each way, but there is no way it is that short on a bus. Even farther for SRSU to get to Belhaven for football.

[NEsoccerfan]

Brandeis has played 8 tourney teams this year... EIGHT (4-3-1).   Are they healthy enough to make a run?

They are as healthy as they've been all year. Good point about being 4-3-1:

John Carroll  - W (3-1)
Haverford    - W (1-0)
Babson        - L (0-1) 2OT
Tufts           - L (0-1) 20T
CMU            - T (1-1)
Chicago       - L (1-2) 2OT
Wash U       - W (2-1)
Rochester    - W (3-1)

I tend to agree with Mr. Right on this. While not as skilled as the past few Deis teams, as the above record against tourney teams shows, this is still a tested squad who could pose a strong threat to Amherst (if they can get past Babson).

[D3 Scout]

A long drive can certainly impact a player when they have to play the same day as the drive. In the case of the NCAA tournament, teams arrive a day before, practice on the field and get settled in the hotel. Teams have a full 24 hours to stretch the legs and get comfortable with their surroundings.

[Domino1195]

A long drive can certainly impact a player when they have to play the same day as the drive. In the case of the NCAA tournament, teams arrive a day before, practice on the field and get settled in the hotel. Teams have a full 24 hours to stretch the legs and get comfortable with their surroundings.

Marietta played at John Carroll twice this year - a 1-0 win in reg season, a 7-1 drubbing in the OAC playoffs.  Marietta has a 160 mile, 2 1/2 - 3 hour trip to get there and usually reserves northern Ohio games for Saturday evenings during the season.  In the first game the stats were very even; saves, SOG, fouls, corners, etc. Game played Saturday at 7pm.  The playoff game was played on a Wednesday at 4pm.  Not sure if the home team dictates this or the OAC has to approve; if Marietta objected to the early start time, etc. JCU is a MUCH different team now than when they played Marietta the first time - but I believe the time of the playoff game was a huge disadvantage to the Marietta players.

[NESCAC_United]

My opinion:

This whole process has been dictated by geography and saving money..


I am New England biased but I say New England and Nescac really got the shaft. Whoever led the New England Committee did not put up much of an argument or did and was completely overruled and "soft". Either way you have teams with 2-3-4 ranked wins and SOS's of at or close to .600 not get in and teams out West and Central / Great Lakes / South Atlantic take New England bids. The most represented region with the most teams gets ONLY 3 POOL C's. I think 4 and even 5 would be more appropriate.

Nescac teams have won the last 2 NCAA Championships and been represented in almost every NCAA Final 4 since 2007. Yet Nescac gets 1 Pool C and the UAA gets 4 Pool C's and year after year they get NOWHERE. UAA teams have FAILED miserably on THE BIG STAGE. Personally, after watching the NJAC a lot this season I do not mind the 3 Pool C's. They deserve it. RUN, MSU and Rowan are damn good teams and while I have not seen Kean this year they did well enough in their conference to deserve to get in. No problems with the NJAC and 3 Pool C's. However, for Nescac, 1 out of Bowdoin / Williams / Midd should have gotten a Pool C. They each beat each other up and that hurt but the league deserves at least 2 Pool C's.

I saw it coming a week ago when BOTH SLU and Rochester limped to the end of their respective seasons and DID NOT DROP in their Rankings. The fix was IN. SLU and UR should not be dancing. Frankly, if this was not such a down year normally a resume like Oneonta's would be considered a bubble resume. I am quite confident had Vassar drew with Skidmore and lost in PK's they would be OUT. I am not a Vassar fan but they would have been left out in favor of a team in their own conference that barely beat them and did not even make their own conference tournament and also left out for a team they slammed in UR 3-0. Oh Well...

So Nescac has Amherst and Tufts. Amherst has a VERY EASY draw until the Elite 8 and THEY WILL NEED IT. Serpone knows this is his worst Amherst side in years with a leaky defense compared to their best teams and horrific GK'ing. BUT who is going to beat them? Babson? Babson looked down right awful against Wheaton(MA) in the Newmac Semi's and are absolutely anemic up front. They cannot beat good teams. They have 3 very solid midfielders and that is it. I wouldn't be surprised to see them lose in the 1st round. Brandeis has played VERY WELL at the end of the year and deserved their bid. However ironically this might be Brandeis weakest side since 2012 and this will be their best chance to beat Amherst. Amherst has weaknesses that can be exploited but can this Brandeis side exploit them. Not sure. RUN at Amherst would be a great Elite 8 match-up and I would favor RUN BUT they will not be playing on their coveted carpet. They would be playing on Amherst grass field. I think a Tufts/ Rowan matchup in the 2nd round would be fantastic but Springfield(A Poor man's Amherst) will make it tough for Tufts to score as they WHACK everything in sight and are downright UGLY to watch.

I will be rooting for UMASS Boston and they will be a tough out with their beast of a striker in Williamson. Ommadawn stated this and i fully agree that you need a stud or 2 in the NCAA's to put their teams on their back and get a goal when needed or a stop when needed. That is why I loved Skidmore this season. UMASS Boston has that and if they get by Kean I think they could beat Haverford. It would be a challenge but doable. Frankly, for a team ranked 2nd in New England they got screwed not only for not hosting but their pod is very difficult. They should of had a much easier 1st round / 2nd Round game then they got.

Cortland State who I saw once this season against Oneonta and was not impressed at all. Maybe it was a one off but Oneonta dominated then in the regular season game I saw. Cortland got the easiest 1st / 2nd Round games besides the 2 "bye" teams in Amherst and Chicago. SLU got off easy as well as I think F&M and W&L are overrated and Durocher stuck his team in a draw they could get out of if they play to their potential.

Well said, Mr. Right. I have been following the boards for a few years now and finally decided that I have to make an account to get some things out there. Sorry as this post may come off as aggressive for a first time poster. As you mentioned, I also agree that it is ridiculous that the NESCAC only got 2 teams into the tournament this year. The past two national champions have been from the NESCAC and teams from the league continue to dominate their non-conference opponents. New England has the most ranked teams for a reason and there is a reason that the NESCAC always has at least 3 or 4 teams ranked in the region.

From what I have heard, Serpone (head coach of Amherst) is the New England committee head. Quite frankly, I agree with your statement that he was "soft." On behalf of the NESCAC and especially Williams, Midd and Bowdoin, Serpone is an insult to the league. Don't get me wrong... he is obviously a successful coach and knows how to recruit and win. However, he should not represent the NESCAC. He is a pushover and honestly, I think it's for selfish reasons. I think that Serpone is a coward and is scared to play other NESCAC teams in the tournament. In the past, Amherst has been eliminated from the NCAA tournament by NESCAC teams and I think that he was scared to play Williams, Midd or Bowdoin. He ended the careers of 3 unbelievable senior classes and did not give them a chance on the big stage. And obviously for Midd, this is not the first time that he has screwed them over...

I have always enjoyed reading your posts, Mr. Right and just wanted to add my own thoughts.

Do you know how they elect regional committee members?

[Flying Weasel]

New England has the most ranked teams for a reason and there is a reason that the NESCAC always has at least 3 or 4 teams ranked in the region.

And that reason is that the New England region has more eligible men's teams than any other region.  The number of teams ranked has absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with strength and/or depth of a region; they rank the top 15% of  each region's eligible teams.  More teams in a region = more teams ranked.

From the 2016 NCAA Division III Soccer Pre-Championships Manual:

The committee will rank the top 15 percent of eligible teams in each region (or a minimum of four teams, whichever is
greater) by applying the championships selection criteria. Based on 2016 sponsorship reports, the following number of
teams will be ranked in each region:

Central Region – 6
East Region – 8
Great Lakes Region – 8
Mid-Atlantic Region – 9
New England Region – 12
North Region – 6
South Atlantic Region – 8
West Region – 5

So, for the New England region that has 77 eligible teams, 15% of 77 is 11.55 or 12 teams to be ranked.  There are more chances for mid-table NESCAC teams to be ranked thanks to the NAC, NECC, GNAC, MASCAC that make up about half of the region's teams but whose teams individually and collectively are typically irrelevant to the whole NCAA tournament and the rankings and at-large berths.

[NESCAC_United]

New England has the most ranked teams for a reason and there is a reason that the NESCAC always has at least 3 or 4 teams ranked in the region.

And that reason is that the New England region has more eligible men's teams than any other region.  The number of teams ranked has absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with strength and/or depth of a region; they rank the top 15% of  each region's eligible teams.  More teams in a region = more teams ranked.

From the 2016 NCAA Division III Soccer Pre-Championships Manual:

The committee will rank the top 15 percent of eligible teams in each region (or a minimum of four teams, whichever is
greater) by applying the championships selection criteria. Based on 2016 sponsorship reports, the following number of
teams will be ranked in each region:

Central Region – 6
East Region – 8
Great Lakes Region – 8
Mid-Atlantic Region – 9
New England Region – 12
North Region – 6
South Atlantic Region – 8
West Region – 5

So, for the New England region that has 77 eligible teams, 15% of 77 is 11.55 or 12 teams to be ranked.  There are more chances for mid-table NESCAC teams to be ranked thanks to the NAC, NECC, GNAC, MASCAC that make up about half of the region's teams but whose teams individually and collectively are typically irrelevant to the whole NCAA tournament and the rankings and at-large berths.

Thanks for the clarification. Regardless, New England is probably considered the best region holistically. I understand that there are travel and regional limitations. It just seems ridiculous that the percentage of New England teams that make it is so much less than the percentage from other regions.

[Mid-Atlantic Fan]

Was diving into why Loras was left out and Dubuque in but here is what the resumes are for all the people that think Loras should have got the nod and been slotted ahead of Dubuque in the final regional rankings...


Dubuque: 13-5-0, SOS .542, RvR 2-1-0, H2H Beat Loras 1-0
Loras: 13-5-0, SOS .593, RvR 1-5-0, H2H Lost Dubuque 1-0

I think the head to head matchup ultimately outweighed the slightly higher SOS or amount of ranked teams Loras had in their favor. Tough break for the Duhawks for sure.

[Saint of Old]

I too feel badly for Loras.
Which is why it is so important to take your chance.
A quality program like that, I'm sure they will be back very soon, but perhaps should have won a championship within the last 5 years of totally dominating.

[Flying Weasel]

Regarding not getting more than two NESCAC teams into the tournament, I think there's a lot of merit in the earlier suggestion that Wheaton's position ahead of Williams and Middlebury in the New England region was the biggest factor.  And we have to remember that the people responsible for ranking Wheaton ahead of Williams and Middlebury (the New England Regional Advisory Committee) are not the same people, bar one, who are making the at-large selections (the national committee composed of the eight RAC chairpersons).  If the New England RAC was making the at-large selections, the reasoning that pushed Wheaton ahead of Williams and Middlebury in the rankings very well might have seen Wheaton selected ahead of Kean for an at-large berth.  Who knows.  Kean did have a better winning percentage than Williams and Middlebury, so maybe not.

And seeing a third NJAC school get an at-large berth before a fourth New England region team and seeing Ohio Northern means the national committee isn't ignoring winning percentage and number of losses and blemishes.  We know that SOS and RvR are very important to them, but sometimes we may be overestimating how much it is weighed and underestimating the other criteria.  And how one region's RAC weighs things may not be the same as the national committee, which brings me back to my previous paragraph.

Thanks for the clarification. Regardless, New England is probably considered the best region holistically. I understand that there are travel and regional limitations. It just seems ridiculous that the percentage of New England teams that make it is so much less than the percentage from other regions.

Well, I'm not sure of your definition of "so mucch less". The only regions that really got more teams in the tournament by percentage are the South Atlantic and the Great Lakes. Those two regions have fewer eligible teams than the New England region and have fewer cupcakes, by percentage. That, combined with the NCAC being strong/deep, Ohio Northern failing to claim the OAC's automatic berth, and the NJAC being strong/deep, saw those regions get a higher percentage of teams into the dance.

New England: 11 berths from 77 eligible teams = 14%
East: 8 berths from 53 eligble teams = 15%
Mid-Atlantic: 8 berths from 60 eligble teams = 13%
South Atlantic: 9 berths from 52 eligble teams = 17%
Great Lakes: 9 berths from 52 eligble teams = 17%
Central: 6 berths from 42 eligble teams = 14%
North: 6 berths from 42 eligble teams = 14%
West: 5 berths from 38 eligble teams = 13%

If you remove the NECC and NAC teams and their automatic berths from the New England region, resulting in a number of teams closer to that in other regions and reducing the percentage of cupcakes in the region, the numbers for New England come out like this:
9 berths from 58 teams = 16%

I too am surprised that New England didn't get another couple teams in as is usual, but it's not entirely accurate to suggest they got "so much less" than other regions.  It's just that they didn't get a higher percentage than other regions which typically is warranted due to the greater strength and depth at the top of the region.

[Flying Weasel]

Was diving into why Loras was left out and Dubuque in but here is what the resumes are for all the people that think Loras should have got the nod and been slotted ahead of Dubuque in the final regional rankings...


Dubuque: 13-5-0, SOS .542, RvR 2-1-0, H2H Beat Loras 1-0
Loras: 13-5-0, SOS .593, RvR 1-5-0, H2H Lost Dubuque 1-0

I think the head to head matchup ultimately outweighed the slightly higher SOS or amount of ranked teams Loras had in their favor. Tough break for the Duhawks for sure.

I don't know how the committee considers RvR.  I'm fairly convinced that they are more interested in the wins vs. ranked than the loses.  Or, at least, they have no problems with the losses (they want team to play tough schedules) as long as there are wins vs. ranked teams as well.  For example, I think they would value a 2-3-1 (.417) RvR higher than a 1-0-1 (.750) RvR even though by winning percentage the later is much better.  But that's just my impression.  Looking specifically at Loras and Dubuque, I wonder if one way to look at the RvR comparison is that Dubuque only required 3 games versus ranked teams to notch two wins; Loras was given six opportunities (twice as many) and still couldn't get a second win.  I don't know.  Head-to-head went to Dubuque and RvR as well, while SOS significantly favors Loras.  If those balance out in the minds of the committee, wouldn't head-to-head be a reasonable decider? 

I'm surprised by the choice of Dubuque over Loras just like most everyone else.  But it's not so absurd if you can completely forget about history and name recognition and look at the data the committee considers.  The ranking and at-large selection process seems to be a highly quantitative exercise with minimal subjectivity.  I don't completely agree with that approach, but recognizing it for what it is, the selection of Dubuque probably shouldn't be such a surprise.

[lastguyoffthebench]

Week 2
6. Emory    9-3-1 / .603 SOS 1-1-1   6th
7. Kean    14-5-0 / .573 SOS 2-3-0   -- NR

Week 3
7. Emory   10-4-1 / .601 SOS 1-2-1  RvR
8. Kean     14-5-1 / .564 SOS 2-3-0  RvR

FINAL
7. Kean      14-5-1 (.725)  / .561 SOS / 2-3-1 RvR  (losses to Rowan, Newark, Rochester 0-1) 
8. Emory    10-5-1 (.656) / .600 SOS / 1-3-1 RvR  (losses to Chicago, Brandeis, Rochester 0-1)

Incredibly close, but in the final week Emory loses to #3 NCAA EAST Rochester (same score as Kean); Kean IDLE after missing NJAC play-offs...
The loss to UR in final game, drop in win %, .01 knock to SOS, and the RvR hit...

In a game that should seemingly only help their cause with any positive result, ends up bursting their bubble... head scratcher, IMO.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Emory loses to #3 Rochester and #4 Brandeis in 2 of the final 3 games; 1-2
Kean beats #6 Drew, loses to TCNJ, and ties Ramapo; 1-1-1

[Dubuquer]

I agree that when just looking at the RvR, SoS and head to head it's hard to pick between Loras and Dubuque.  Flip a coin in my mind.  What bothers me about Dubuque going instead of Loras is what happened after the two teams played and Dubuque picked up a lucky goal off a misplayed ball in the 89th minute.  Dubuque proceeded to go 3-4 over the rest of the season.  Loras went 8-1. I would like to think the selection committee would have put some more weight on the trajectory of a team's season.

[Shooter McGavin]

I agree that when just looking at the RvR, SoS and head to head it's hard to pick between Loras and Dubuque.  Flip a coin in my mind.  What bothers me about Dubuque going instead of Loras is what happened after the two teams played and Dubuque picked up a lucky goal off a misplayed ball in the 89th minute.  Dubuque proceeded to go 3-4 over the rest of the season.  Loras went 8-1. I would like to think the selection committee would have put some more weight on the trajectory of a team's season.

They don't care whose hot and whose not unfortunately. Rochester limped into the tournament. Started 7-0-2 and finished 2-4-1 for a 9-4-3 overall record. Ironically, UR was 2-4-1 on the road and 7-0-2 at home. Will be interesting to see how they do on the road in the tournament.

[Mr.Right]

I also noticed the 2 bye teams(Chicago and Amherst) got much different draws. It is my opinion that a bye is just that a bye..A walk into the RD 32 but IT SHOULD NOT BE a cupcake walk to the SWEET 16. Chicago's RD 32 match-up looks a bit more difficult as it gets the winner of an AQ/Pool C game while Amherst gets the winner of 2 very weak AQ's from 2 very weak leagues. IMO the "bye" teams should bet their bye and then play a Pool C / bubble team winner in the RD of 32 if possible. Amherst really got a good draw.